China's Olympic Men's Single selection

[kwun]

i have been wondering. China has 4 very eligible MS player for the up coming olympics. namely, Chen Hong, Xia Xuanze, Lin Dan and Bao Chunlai, however, Olympics qualifying regulation says China can only send 3 players to the Olympics (if they all are in the top 16). then out of the 4, whom should China send?

(you can select more than 1 players)

[Neil Nicholls]

I went for Lin Dan as number 3, but afterwards I was wondering if Bao is mentally tougher...

[seven]

There might be five actually, as Chen Yu could well be in top 16 too...

[kwun]

seven: good point. i added Chen Yu..

[edwin]

I voted for Lin Dan, Xia Xuanze, and Chen Hong.

I think Bao will be one of the odd person out because as of now (China Open is still playing), he hasn't won any tournaments this year. This reminds me of Chen Hong's situation back in Year 2000 during the Sydney Olympic qualifying period. Despite his youth, talent, and his high ranking, Chen Hong didn't win any tournaments during the Sydney Olympic qualifying period. Therefore, he wasn't selected to play in the Olympics.

As you may recall back in 2000, Luo Yigang was constantly ranked within top 10, but Sun Jun was chosen ahead of him because of his experience; and Xia and Ji were choosen ahead of Luo because they are more talented and they fared better in tournaments. Chen Yu will likely be the Luo Yigang of 2000. Despite his high ranking, he won't be selected to the Olympic teamate because Xia and Chen Hong have more experience than he has; and Lin Dan and Bao Chunlai are more talented than he is.

[- 73* -]

there's four chinese WS players who are all capable of getting the gold in athens with gong, zhang and zhou ranked in the top 3 and xie as 6th. but it isn't based entirely on the ranking. plus, xie has been getting better and better lately so i think it would be unfair for her not to go. by the next olympics, she'll be 27 and who knows if she'll still be playing by then?

[LazyBuddy]

Bao CL and Chen Yu will give their teammates secure "backup" choices in case of injuries (Xia and CH seem got bothered a lot lately). However, their potential also makes the selection to be extra tougher.

With his hot streak, Lin Dan seems locked for the 3rd spot behind CH and Xia. However, Xia seems entered another cold period after winning the world champ. Of course, more or less this has to do with his injury, just hope he can recover, and get back in form.

[wilfredlgf]

Yeap, as expected Chen Hong, Lin Dan and Xia Xuanze are the frontrunners of the selection and why not? Chen Hong is #1 for a very good reason, Lin Dan is on fire and Xia is more experienced than the other two.

Hard to choose, but I'd go for experience and form over youth in this one. And as spoken by LB, Bao and Chen Yu make the perfect backup for the more injury prone seniors.

[whizkelv]

With such a good pool of talent, China could also adopt the similar strategy as what BAM declared for Malaysia - keep the Olympians out of TC team.

A good choice will be to rest Chen Hong and Xia Xuanze out of TC, shall Li YB decides to pick them ahead of their younger compatriots. Should not be a problem for Lin Dan to play in both as he certainly has the stamina to do so.:D

So, by having Lin Dan, Bao CL, Chen Yu and perhaps Chen Wei as reserve, China is still the team to reckon with.

[da ding]

i reckon that the main reason why China doesnt have a monopoly in the men singles as they do in WS despite having a deep pool of talent in both disciplines is that the chinese MS players are about as consistent as rhino droppings...

Xia, imo, is overall the best in terms of skill: neatest footwork, most experience, strong defence and deadly efficient in attack, but it is so typical of him to be in control of a match against a much weaker player then suddenly just lose it and drop a series of slack points, and make it much harder for himself to win...this takes a huge toll on stamina too in a large tournament such as the olympics

Lin dan, overall, is second best i think and currently the most consistent

Chen Hong and Bao chunlai both need more variety on their attacking shots and also need to work on their defense and footwork...up against quick players with good defence like maybe Taufik on one of his better days, chen hong is helpless...but he has more experience than bao and is more capable of winning big tournaments, so i think china should send xia, lin and chen

[LazyBuddy]

Originally posted by whizkelv
With such a good pool of talent, China could also adopt the similar strategy as what BAM declared for Malaysia - keep the Olympians out of TC team.

A good choice will be to rest Chen Hong and Xia Xuanze out of TC, shall Li YB decides to pick them ahead of their younger compatriots. Should not be a problem for Lin Dan to play in both as he certainly has the stamina to do so.:D

So, by having Lin Dan, Bao CL, Chen Yu and perhaps Chen Wei as reserve, China is still the team to reckon with.

I highly doubt Li YB will apply the above strategy. As the MD finally got a chance to compete, this could be considered as the best chance for CHN to take TC since 1992, especially at a time that other power houses facing difficulties to get their young generation ready (INA: Tauffik's self destruction as for now, KOR: Injury to MD pairs, MAS: about to give up this one, DEN: might not have "the one" for MS).

If Li send relatively inexperienced squad in Lin, Bao, and Chen, that will be too much risk. If the MD pairs still can't live up to their reputation and high hope, it will be way too much pressure on the youngsters. Let's don't forget about Bao's weak mental strength and Chen's lack of experience on big stage.

Also, with recently poor performance, I think Chen H and Xia need some "activities" to regain their forms and confidence.

[Wizbit]

To sum up...

I actually think that Bao does not have a poor defense. For his height, I think his defense is as good as if not relatively better than the others. He has a good all round game, but maybe not the mental ability to go with his technical ability. I think he just needs more exposure and 1 big tournament win over his WC bronze medal, to give him the confidence boost to jump a level. On ability, I think he could win a Bronze medal...

Chen Hong has been very consistent, but I agree that his attacking style is too predictable for his current opponents. As predictable as his smashes are, they are very effective. When his smashes keep coming back though, his confidence is affected and seems to run out of ideas. But depending on his draw, he is a gold medal prospect. Given his ranking, he won't be happy with anything apart from Gold, but in my opinion there are better players out there...

Lin Dan was the surprise of 2003. It was frustrating to see someone with so much talent not win a major tournament. Being under his peers' shadows didn't help, but many are glad that he is fulfilling his potential. He has has been on a hot streak, and hope that he will be able to continue in 2004. But if past statistics are anything to go by, he will either pick up an injury or enter a cold streak, maybe after the Olympics. (Touch wood) If he carries on playing like he has these last few months, he is a gold medal contender...

Xia is technically very good, has probably the most experience, and is a big match player. But his form seems to have been dipping. His style of play is such that it uses up a lot of stamina, and wins games in 3 sets when they could have been won in 2. Unless he is injured, he can not be left out simply for his fighting spirit. He'll want to go one step further since the last Olympics and prove that his World Championship medal was not the last. A real top medal prospect for China.

Chen Yu is probably the least known out of this list, but he has been a seasoned campaigner for a relatively long time. He made a great run in 2003 and breaks into the world's top ten. He beat some big names on the circuit, and reached 2 finals (I think), but has failed at the penultimate hurdle. I think he also won the internal National competition. From the limited footage that I have seen, he seems to have a good all round game and consistency. A dark horse amongst the candidates, and a possible Bronze medallist, but I have not seen enough of him to say whether he is good enough to go further.

In the top 10 rankings, there are 5 Chinese players. Worryingly, outside the top 10 there is only 1 other Chinese player in the top 100. (rank 57 Wu Yun Yong) . Whilst they are in a dominating position now, with a couple of those players injured, there won't be a good choice of back up shuttlers with the desired experience or exposure. The 2000 World Juniors have already been amalgramated into the senior squad (Bao, Lin, Zhu, Wu). Note that Bao was the winner and Lin runner up...

Maybe the Chinese coach is deliberately pacing the top athletes and rotating them. If that is true, then Bao should be the next to be 'allowed' to win some tournaments. Of course we'll never know the answers to these questions. We can only speculate :)

My pick would be a definite Lin, Xia and Chen in no order. Bao would be backup, but Chen Yu would be a gamble.

The other medal contenders I see are Peter Gade, Taufik, Sony Dwi Kuncoro, Lee Chong Wei, Wong Choong Hann, Boonsak Polsana, Lee Hyun Il. Wong Choong Hann being the strongest contender.

I still think China are favourites to take the gold ;)

[LazyBuddy]

Originally posted by Wizbit


In the top 10 rankings, there are 5 Chinese players. Worryingly, outside the top 10 there is only 1 other Chinese player in the top 100. (rank 57 Wu Yun Yong) . Whilst they are in a dominating position now, with a couple of those players injured, there won't be a good choice of back up shuttlers with the desired experience or exposure. The 2000 World Juniors have already been amalgramated into the senior squad (Bao, Lin, Zhu, Wu). Note that Bao was the winner and Lin runner up...



With its current dominating forces, the 2nd layer players don't have too much chance to participate in high ranking international tournies (except China Open). The bright spot is, Chen (Yu), Wu and Zhu seems got satisfied performance with very limited appearance, with Chen leading the way.

Chen Hong is 24, and Xia is 26. They will be out in the next few yrs, with their current injury history (not too many Zhang Ning type around in CHN squard). Especially for Xia, this olympics is definitely his last chance to shoot for the gold. Therefore, with the "seniority", Chen and Xia should get the ticket without any question.

[seven]

Originally posted by LazyBuddy
Therefore, with the "seniority", Chen and Xia should get the ticket without any question.

You're probably right about this!
I remember reading somewhere an interview of Li Yongbo which tended to confirm what you're saying (though not said openly of course :p ).

[LazyBuddy]

Originally posted by seven
You're probably right about this!
I remember reading somewhere an interview of Li Yongbo which tended to confirm what you're saying (though not said openly of course :p ).

There's no secret on topics like this.

In CHN teams (all sports), the respectable "old guns" always get some "bonus" in Olympics selection. Overall, they have the most experience to be fairly reliable, and this will be the last time for them to add another gold in their already impressive resume.

[kwun]

various reports have came out. but one of them that LiYB says makes the most sense.

for events in which China has a choice, the players who can consistently beat the players from another country will have higher weight.

Wong is one of the biggest threat to the Chinese, Xia 9-0 record (or was it more?) against him will certainly be a plus. Lin denied Wong from retaining the China Open title, that certain will hold some weight as well.

Bao consistently lose to others especially at big events (Hafiz in TC, Taufik in SC). so that doesn't help him.

ChenH has been pretty consistent. but has really won any big events lately.

with the results so far, it looks like a race between Bao and ChenH.

Xia is still injured and only doing light training.

[dlp]

Looking at the Swiss Xia seems to be struggling still, perhaps he needs a good performance at AE next week to make the olympics or else he could be passed over for the younger players!

[ants]

If Lin Dan still in Top form.. he might be the Olympic Gold winner.

[Qidong]

Maybe if the poll restarts today, the choice could be in a different order: Lin, Bao, Chen Yu, Chen Hong, Xia.

[da ding]

Originally posted by Wizbit
To sum up...

The 2000 World Juniors have already been amalgramated into the senior squad (Bao, Lin, Zhu, Wu). Note that Bao was the winner and Lin runner up...



I thought Bao was winner and Sony Dwi Kuncoro was runner up, whilst Lin was bronze medallist... but Lin was certainly the favorite for that tournament, and with the scoring system back to 3 x 15, Bao hasn't beaten him since...neither have many other players in the last few months:cool:

[seven]

Yes you're right, see the results (http://www.worldbadminton.net/Portal/intbadfed/junior.html#2000) .

Note that the fourth semi-finalist was no other than... Lee Chong Wei!!

[BoboTheBadder]

Lin Dan has been on fire lately, but I'd still like to see Xia compete in an Olympics before he retires since he's my favorite player... even though Lin Dan probably has the best chance at winning the gold at this rate. Still, maybe Xia will make a comeback like he did for the WC. :D

[Wizbit]

Oops my error. :D

Lin Dan indeed was semi finalist, and Sony was runner up.

I notice that Chen Hong is trying to change his style of play lately. I think most of the better players figured out how to play him, and as a consequence, he is changing racquet also (to MP99). I guess he wants to improve his defence capabilities, and better control for the hold and flick shots. It's going to take some time for him to settle in..

Xia's form is not looking good so far, this year...realistically what are his chances of winning gold? I would rate 30%

Let's see how they perform in Japan and Korea open...

[dlp]

Although Xia lost to Vaughan early on at the AE don't forget Bao crashed out to Ghaffar, some 70 world ranking places below him. Even after recent tournaments Chen Hong and Lin Dan I think are certainties Chen Yu is not there yet and its a straight choice between Xia and Bao

[Fook90]

I believe China is planning a certain arrangment as to allow their top 3 players Chen Hong, Lin Dan and Xia Xuanze to enter the Olympics with top seedings

Besides that, they have been juggling the World No.1 title around them. I believe they are just trying to disallow them to meet till the semi-final. Thus they could secure the gold medal with 3 players.

[da ding]

sorry if this is a little irrevelant, but i checked the link posted by seven with regards to the world junior badminton championships and was very surprised to find that in the most recent event (pretoria 2002) there were 2 MS semifinalists--one of which (Kendrick Lee) made it to the finals after trashing Park SungHwan, and the other one (Hendra Wijaya) ran CHen JIn pretty close in the semis...

but i seem to recall recently that many Singapore MS players including Hendra Wijaya were kicked out of the nation team because of poor ftness or something like that

can anyone confirm this or contribute any additional commnets? where is kendrick lee currently?

note: also check the 1998 results for melbourne: it seems that both Gong RUina and Xie Xingfang both used to play WD as well!

[kwun]

a Chinese article publish today indicates that Li YongBo already "have a pretty good idea" who he will send to the Olympics. however, he would not tell the reporter whom they are.

however, Li did indicate that basically, one can see the entry list from the TC/UC lineup.

so that means:

Lin Dan, Bao Chunlai, Xia Xuanze.

it will be quite disappointing for Chen Hong, as he and Gao Ling wants to get married after their Olympic gold. it looks like now Chen Hong is going to miss out on his.

[hcyong]

Unfortunately, the Olympic cycle is longer than the average lifespan of the peak of a player's career.

[wittychang]

a Chinese article publish today indicates that Li YongBo already "have a pretty good idea" who he will send to the Olympics. however, he would not tell the reporter whom they are.

however, Li did indicate that basically, one can see the entry list from the TC/UC lineup.

so that means:

Lin Dan, Bao Chunlai, Xia Xuanze.

it will be quite disappointing for Chen Hong, as he and Gao Ling wants to get married after their Olympic gold. it looks like now Chen Hong is going to miss out on his.Don't forget the Olympics don't award a gold medal to a team event.Every player only plays for himself. Though Chen Hong is alleged to have be less tough mentally, he is still among the world tops. no matter before whom, he will be hard to beat. Four years ago in Sydney, Sun Jun attended the MS, compared with Chen Hong, he is more experienced and more importantly, his attendence will be a stong backup for Ge Fei, who shouldered to grab the gold medals of both the Women's Double and MIxed Double. Likewise, Gao Ling is the fiancee to Chen Hong. Gao is also the most valuable player in the Chinese badminton squad, who is still the China's only hope to defend the Mix Double gold medal and beat the Ra/Kim pair. Chen's accompany will be an asset to her victory. Li Yongbo should be aware of that. Let's wait and see. To miss out in two consecutive Olympics is no doubt the biggest tragedy for a player like Chen. Let's cross fingers for him

[dlp]

The chinese should pick whichever 3 players have the best chance of being seeded in the top 3, so Xia would miss out. Picking other than this may be a wasted pick since the third player would have a 50% of meeting one of the other 2 chinese before the semi.

[hcyong]

The chinese should pick whichever 3 players have the best chance of being seeded in the top 3, so Xia would miss out. Picking other than this may be a wasted pick since the third player would have a 50% of meeting one of the other 2 chinese before the semi.

Players from the same country will be separated, according to the Olympic ruling for badminton.

[hcyong]

Players from the same country will be separated, according to the Olympic ruling for badminton.

6. Separation of entries 6.1 Entries from any one NOC shall be drawn as follows: 6.1.1 the first and second ranked entries by lot in opposite halves of the draw; 6.1.2 the third ranked entry by lot in one of the two remaining quarters; 6.1.3 the ranking of entries from a NOC can be amended by the seeding. If this is done a new ranking order is implicitly established and should be used for the purposes of Regulation 6.1.

If the target is gold, it is not important whether you are seeded or not, you will have to defeat all players that stand in your way. China should choose the three who can most likely get the gold, without any fear that they will cancel out one another before the semi-final stage.

[HoNgHoNg]

i think i will choose Lin Dan, Chen Hong n Xia Xuanze :D

[dlp]

You're right HongHong I forgot they had reintroduced seration. Thats bad news for the other countries.

[xiang_chiudong]

i am not sure about xiexinfang but gong ruina did play WD and she won the silver medal, partnering huang sui( gao ling's current partner):p
sorry if this is a little irrevelant, but i checked the link posted by seven with regards to the world junior badminton championships and was very surprised to find that in the most recent event (pretoria 2002) there were 2 MS semifinalists--one of which (Kendrick Lee) made it to the finals after trashing Park SungHwan, and the other one (Hendra Wijaya) ran CHen JIn pretty close in the semis...

but i seem to recall recently that many Singapore MS players including Hendra Wijaya were kicked out of the nation team because of poor ftness or something like that

can anyone confirm this or contribute any additional commnets? where is kendrick lee currently?

note: also check the 1998 results for melbourne: it seems that both Gong RUina and Xie Xingfang both used to play WD as well!

[Nrlll9]

sorry if this is a little irrevelant, but i checked the link posted by seven with regards to the world junior badminton championships and was very surprised to find that in the most recent event (pretoria 2002) there were 2 MS semifinalists--one of which (Kendrick Lee) made it to the finals after trashing Park SungHwan, and the other one (Hendra Wijaya) ran CHen JIn pretty close in the semis...

but i seem to recall recently that many Singapore MS players including Hendra Wijaya were kicked out of the nation team because of poor ftness or something like that

can anyone confirm this or contribute any additional commnets? where is kendrick lee currently?

note: also check the 1998 results for melbourne: it seems that both Gong RUina and Xie Xingfang both used to play WD as well!

thats pretty ddissapoitning. hendra wijaya had a lot of potential

[Nrlll9]

a Chinese article publish today indicates that Li YongBo already "have a pretty good idea" who he will send to the Olympics. however, he would not tell the reporter whom they are.

however, Li did indicate that basically, one can see the entry list from the TC/UC lineup.

so that means:

Lin Dan, Bao Chunlai, Xia Xuanze.

it will be quite disappointing for Chen Hong, as he and Gao Ling wants to get married after their Olympic gold. it looks like now Chen Hong is going to miss out on his.

yea i guess htats who he was going to send
he probably wanted to send Lin Dan, chen hong, xia xuanze
so he let bao chunlai play so he could have an excuse if he loses.

[HoNgHoNg]

thats pretty ddissapoitning. hendra wijaya had a lot of potential
is hendra wijaya related to candra wijaya??? :p

[mirrura]

my Pick:
Lin Dan
(of course, he looks strong and confident of clinching the Gold)

Bao Chunlai
I guess Li Yongbo is very fond him nowadays, (read that he was willing to give Bao and Lin his one-year's salary to both of them), a great display in the TC, didn't really show any sign of nervousness and won it despite trailing quite a big margin

Xia Xuanze
tough choice, but I still go with Xia Xuanze for no strong reason :) Just a feeling that he will be chosen ahead of Chen Hong and Chen Yu ;) , he was lucky enough to be the bronze medallist four years ago, and who knows, with great determination, he will be able to get the gold albeit it will be tough for him.