thomas cup final: don't understimate indonesia

[taufik-ist]

even tough in qualify around indonesia thomas cup team played worse (almost failed), i'm still sure that indonesia will qualify to the final to meet china :),

2 point from md (chandra/sigit and alven/luluk) and 1 point from ms (taufik or simon santoso)

let'see the chances :

indo vs china , it will be 3:2 , 2:3, 1:3

taufik hidayat vs lin dan = 45 : 55
kuncoro vs bao chun lai = 40 : 60
simon santoso vs chen jin = 50 : 50 ( i'm not sure chen jin can't still handle the pressure )
chandra/sigit vs cai fu = 50 : 50
alven/luluk vs any second china md = 60 : 40


indonesia vs korea, it will be 3:0, 3:2, 2:3

taufik vs lee = 55 : 45
kuncoro vs 2nd korean md = 50 : 50
simon vs 3rd korean md = 50 : 50
chandra/sigit vs 1st korean md = 60 : 40
alven/luluk vs 2nd kor md = 60 : 40

indonesia vs denmark, it will be 3:0, 3:2, 2:3

taufik hidayat vs pg = 55:45
kuncoro vs kenneth = 45:55
simon santoso vs 3rd danes ms = 55:45
chandra/sigit vs 1st danes md = 50:50
alven/luluk vs 2nd danes md = 55:45

indonsia vs malaysia, 3:2,2:3

taufik vs lcw = 50:50
kuncoro vs hafidz = 45:55
simon vs kbh = 50:50
chandra/sigit vs ctf/lww = 50:50
alven/luluk vs 2nd msa md = 55:45

[cxytdn]

China Team has many choices on how to play.

MS: Lin Dan, Chen Hong, Bao Chunlai and Chen Jin (maybe Xia Xuanze)
MD: Cai Yun/Fu Haifeng, Guo Zhendong/Xie Zhongbo and Sang Yang/Zheng Bo

Indonesia Team has no choice just one formt to play.

MS: Taufik, (maybe as 2nd MS), Sony Dwi(maybe as 1st MS), Simon and Jeffer
MD: Chandra/Sigit, Yulianto/Luluk and Markis/Hendra

[peace]

Well, Simon has to boost his mentality as well as Sony. Taufik has to be stable. I think the problem for Indonesia is the singles...for doubles, they are good enough. Let see how they will perform.

[taufik-ist]

China Team has many choices on how to play.

MS: Lin Dan, Chen Hong, Bao Chunlai and Chen Jin (maybe Xia Xuanze)
MD: Cai Yun/Fu Haifeng, Guo Zhendong/Xie Zhongbo and Sang Yang/Zheng Bo

Indonesia Team has no choice just one formt to play.

MS: Taufik, (maybe as 2nd MS), Sony Dwi(maybe as 1st MS), Simon and Jeffer
MD: Chandra/Sigit, Yulianto/Luluk and Markis/Hendra


do u remember thomas cup 2002, china young guns were failed :), lin dan, bao chun lain, chen hong.. they couldn't handle the pressure.

chne jin: it's his first thomas cup
xia : he's not as good as before
Guo Zhendong/Xie Zhongbo and Sang Yang/Zheng: the china weaknesses

tyhe key to beat china is to beat lin dan first.

can lin dan handle the pressure, becos if he lose, that will make his team in danger ?

[seven]

indonsia vs malaysia, 3:2,2:3

taufik vs lcw = 50:50
kuncoro vs hafidz = 45:55
simon vs kbh = 50:50
chandra/sigit vs ctf/lww = 50:50
alven/luluk vs 2nd msa md = 55:45

CTF/LWW will be 2nd MD because of world ranking
And they would very probably beat Alven/Luluk.

[eskey]

do u remember thomas cup 2002, china young guns were failed :), lin dan, bao chun lain, chen hong.. they couldn't handle the pressure.

chne jin: it's his first thomas cup
xia : he's not as good as before
Guo Zhendong/Xie Zhongbo and Sang Yang/Zheng: the china weaknesses

tyhe key to beat china is to beat lin dan first.

can lin dan handle the pressure, becos if he lose, that will make his team in danger ?

failed in 2002 but they proved it in 2004, isn't it good, some more in front of indo crowd, can they handle pressure? this question more suitable for indo team rather than other team, looking at current situation.

if not wrong, lin dan has yet to lose in the team event (CMIIW), so it's proven he can handle the pressure as the 1st single, while taufik, i think this is the first time he is as 1st single, correct? so as we know 1st point is very important to the team, so taufik has yet to prove that he can handle the pressure too. individual is very different with team event.

if u say chen jin vs simon, then the question is not for chen jin, but rather to simon, can he handle the presure which he failed most of the time in the team event?

[taufik-ist]

CTF/LWW will be 2nd MD because of world ranking
And they would very probably beat Alven/Luluk.

it will be 50:50, their last meet was alven/luluk beat ctf/lww

[Titan]

aiyaa..come on laa..it's very hard to predict laaa in badminton..but for sure Thomas Cup sure can go only to these country la I think..China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Denmark...maybe Japan because home country...but yes, I agree with topic owner, nobody can underestimate Indonesia...they're like injured tiger now...more dangerous...who knows..Indonesia is going to be like last World Cup my favorite team Germany...sucks in qualifying but went to final...only didn't win the cup hahaha...

[tehsham]

aiyaa..come on laa..it's very hard to predict laaa in badminton..but for sure Thomas Cup sure can go only to these country la I think..China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Denmark.....

Well this made the TC interesting, we had 4 teams who are capable to become champion...

[eskey]

Well this made the TC interesting, we had 4 teams who are capable to become champion...

i would say, with 21 points system, Korea will be in the race as well:D

[ccskaki]

Actually I am worried about Denmark.

Rarely had Denmark have a better chance of winning the Thomas Cup than this year. Previously they never had any very strong doubles pairs. Thomas Lund & his partner (forgot his name) were quite strong. But that was it.

Now they have 2 very strong doubles pairs. Both the pairs have the capability to beat ANY pairs in the world (yes including Sigit-Chandra). In fact, it is more likely than not that Denmark will sweep both the doubles points against Malaysia, Korea and China.

Denmark's first singles: Peter Gade. This is probably his last or 2nd last year as a pro player. But no one has more than 55% chance of beating him.

Denmark's second singles: Kenneth Jonassen. We know he couldn't beat Lin Dan or Taofik or Lee Choong Wei. But that doesn't matter. As the 2nd single, Kenneth has the capability to beat any other 2nd singles (BCL, Sony, Hafiz).

Granted, the Denmark team is not young anymore. But actually that is an advantage. They are THE MOST EXPERIENCED team in this Thomas Cup. Thomas Cup is different from individual events. In TC, they play less matches and could even be rested in some matches in the preliminary rounds. Historically, the TC is won by "old" teams. China could not win in 2002 but they won in 2004 with an older team. The last time Malaysia won TC back in 1992, all our players were near their retirement age.

[taufik-ist]

failed in 2002 but they proved it in 2004, isn't it good, some more in front of indo crowd, can they handle pressure? this question more suitable for indo team rather than other team, looking at current situation.

if not wrong, lin dan has yet to lose in the team event (CMIIW), so it's proven he can handle the pressure as the 1st single, while taufik, i think this is the first time he is as 1st single, correct? so as we know 1st point is very important to the team, so taufik has yet to prove that he can handle the pressure too. individual is very different with team event.

if u say chen jin vs simon, then the question is not for chen jin, but rather to simon, can he handle the presure which he failed most of the time in the team event?

2002 thomas cup, taufik is the 1st ms

[seven]

2002 thomas cup, taufik is the 1st ms

No it was Marleve Mainaky in 2002 if I'm not mistaken...

[Chu Liuxiang]

2002 thomas cup, taufik is the 1st ms
No. Taufik was the second single in 2002 TC, Marleve Mainaky was the first single.

[Chu Liuxiang]

Denmark's second singles: Kenneth Jonassen. We know he couldn't beat Lin Dan or Taofik or Lee Choong Wei. But that doesn't matter. As the 2nd single, Kenneth has the capability to beat any other 2nd singles (BCL, Sony, Hafiz).

Malaysia won TC back in 1992, all our players were near their retirement age.


Yes, Kenneth can beat Hafiz but not Wong CH as second single. Kenneth has never beaten Wong CH before in his entire badminton career life, not even in Denmark.

In 1992, Only Razif Sidek and Jalaini Sidek near retirement age. Foo Kok Keong even played as third single in TC 1994. Rashid Sidek, Cheah Soon Kit and Soo Beng Kiang were only 24 years old while Kuan Yoke Meng was only 25. I think they still played a couple of years before they retired. So, not all of them near retirement age.

[taufik-ist]

No. Taufik was the second single in 2002 TC, Marleve Mainaky was the first single.

yeah... u r rite :) ....

i remember the final marleve lost to wch, taufik lost to lee tsu seng and hendrawan became the hero :D

[sugar_free]

2002 thomas cup, taufik is the 1st ms
Taufik is the 2nd ms, marleve is the 1st... And he still lost to Lee Tsuen Seng... He's too relax when playing against the player who is in the lower rank, and sometimes i think that he's the one who underestimate other players... This could be worse because now the match is getting faster and a tiny mistake could be a huge advantage for other players... I'm not saying that he's not a good player, just that it could be worse if he continue to play in that kind of 'style'... He has skills and i think he's an interesting player to watch afterall...

[peace]

IMO, it wold be a very hard job for Indonesia to win the TC. This does not underestimate Indonesia, but this is the fact. Look at this :

1. Taufik Hidayat
He is not so stable, especially after his marriage,yes hopefully he will be back to the top performance during TC. Now, this is the first time for him to be the leader as 1st single, but mentally, he is more mature compared to Sony and Simon. Having seen his performance during TC qualification, when he lost to Lee Chong Wei and Boonsak, I think during the TC Final Stage, his chance against Lin Dan, Peter Gade, Lee Chong Wei, and Lee Hyun-il would be 50-50...he has to improve and get used to 21-score system. Hope he can make it, coz it is really interesting to see him play when he is at the top performance.

2. Candra Wijaya/Sigit Budiarto
They are stable enough, but the problem is they are getting older. Hope that their experiences playing in team event, could give 1 point to Indonesia.
Against CCM/KKK and Korean pair the chance is 60-40 to Candra/Sigit and against Cai/Fu, Martin/Jens is 55-45 to Candra/Sigit. So, Indonesia can hope 1 point from them.

3. Sony Dwi Kuncoro
He is still very unstable, he can lost even to unfamous players, like the 2nd Thais single. It's hard to rely on him for point, against Bao Chunlai or Chen Hong or Kenneth Jonassen, his chance is 40-60...and against Hafiz or 2 nd Korean single the chance is 50-50....since Hafiz is also unstable sometimes.
So, this will not give any point if Indonesia face China or Denmark

4. Luluk Hadiyanto/Alven Yulianto or Markis Kido/Hendra Setiawan
Luluk/ALven could be able to perform better, this is the 2nd TC for them. We may rely 1 point on them, since the 2nd Chinese, Malaysian and Korean are not strong, but be careful with the Danish pair. But I think, generally the problem is with this Indo pair themselves...they should be stable, not like they performed during AE in January, hope what they did in TC qualification would happen again for Indonesia.
Markis/Hendra, they are getting mature and mature, hope this 1st TC for them will encourage them to give 1 point, but still depends on how their mentality is, since they are lacking of team experience. SEAG cannot guarantee too much, since in SEA only Malaysia is the really oppponent and Thai can make slight a difficulty for Indonesia.

5. SImon Santoso
Hmm...he is really unstable also. He lost mostly in team event, except in the TC qualification against Thai 3rd single. Surely he has to improve a lot, so PBSI has to send him to Asian Championship and Phillipines open and China masters. PBSI, do not think too much about money...Sutiyoso, you are rich, so please help Indonesia in this matter. Surely, you don't want that the TC team lost easily or even follow the UC team. So, Simon really has to get the chance on those 3 tournaments.

So, IMO, if Indonesia wanna win the TC, Taufik and the 2 doubles may not lost to other team. It is hard to rely on Sony and Simon and especially the 4th single (if he is played).

:rolleyes:

[taufik-ist]

IMO, it wold be a very hard job for Indonesia to win the TC. This does not underestimate Indonesia, but this is the fact. Look at this :

1. Taufik Hidayat
He is not so stable, especially after his marriage,yes hopefully he will be back to the top performance during TC. Now, this is the first time for him to be the leader as 1st single, but mentally, he is more mature compared to Sony and Simon. Having seen his performance during TC qualification, when he lost to Lee Chong Wei and Boonsak, I think during the TC Final Stage, his chance against Lin Dan, Peter Gade, Lee Chong Wei, and Lee Hyun-il would be 50-50...he has to improve and get used to 21-score system. Hope he can make it, coz it is really interesting to see him play when he is at the top performance.

2. Candra Wijaya/Sigit Budiarto
They are stable enough, but the problem is they are getting older. Hope that their experiences playing in team event, could give 1 point to Indonesia.
Against CCM/KKK and Korean pair the chance is 60-40 to Candra/Sigit and against Cai/Fu, Martin/Jens is 55-45 to Candra/Sigit. So, Indonesia can hope 1 point from them.

3. Sony Dwi Kuncoro
He is still very unstable, he can lost even to unfamous players, like the 2nd Thais single. It's hard to rely on him for point, against Bao Chunlai or Chen Hong or Kenneth Jonassen, his chance is 40-60...and against Hafiz or 2 nd Korean single the chance is 50-50....since Hafiz is also unstable sometimes.
So, this will not give any point if Indonesia face China or Denmark

4. Luluk Hadiyanto/Alven Yulianto or Markis Kido/Hendra Setiawan
Luluk/ALven could be able to perform better, this is the 2nd TC for them. We may rely 1 point on them, since the 2nd Chinese, Malaysian and Korean are not strong, but be careful with the Danish pair. But I think, generally the problem is with this Indo pair themselves...they should be stable, not like they performed during AE in January, hope what they did in TC qualification would happen again for Indonesia.
Markis/Hendra, they are getting mature and mature, hope this 1st TC for them will encourage them to give 1 point, but still depends on how their mentality is, since they are lacking of team experience. SEAG cannot guarantee too much, since in SEA only Malaysia is the really oppponent and Thai can make slight a difficulty for Indonesia.

5. SImon Santoso
Hmm...he is really unstable also. He lost mostly in team event, except in the TC qualification against Thai 3rd single. Surely he has to improve a lot, so PBSI has to send him to Asian Championship and Phillipines open and China masters. PBSI, do not think too much about money...Sutiyoso, you are rich, so please help Indonesia in this matter. Surely, you don't want that the TC team lost easily or even follow the UC team. So, Simon really has to get the chance on those 3 tournaments.

So, IMO, if Indonesia wanna win the TC, Taufik and the 2 doubles may not lost to other team. It is hard to rely on Sony and Simon and especially the 4th single (if he is played).

:rolleyes:

agree fo ur deep analysis :D

[xijiayu]

can lin dan handle the pressure, becos if he lose, that will make his team in danger ?

I believe LD is the most consistent MS player currently. His victory over LCW in AE SF has proven that he can handle pressure under any situation.

[taufik-ist]

I believe LD is the most consistent MS player currently. His victory over LCW in AE SF has proven that he can handle pressure under any situation.

team event has more pressure than individual

[peace]

I think Lin Dan has proved himself that he could manage the pressure, either in individual tournament or team event. :D

[indra]

d

tyhe key to beat china is to beat lin dan first.

can lin dan handle the pressure, becos if he lose, that will make his team in danger ?

When China meets Indonesia in Semi or Final...this would be very interesting.
I don't think China will field Lin Dan to play taufik.
Li Yong Bo must understand that fielding Lin Dan to face Taufik is just like placing China on the brink of the " failure ravine". ALthoug Lin Dan is considered to be the most consistent player now...it does not mean that he can handle the "unpredictable Taufik" whom he lost in the last two important encounters. I believe Li Yong Bo won't take that rick. He might field Bao Chun Lai instead who has a better record of playing against Taufik. However, in my analysis whoever meets Taufik must be super extra careful because they are playing in the "Real" showdown. And I am very sure that we will see the real Taufik when he plays in a life or death match....

If Li Yong Bo forces Lin Dan to play Taufik.....chances are Lin Dan will lose.
If Lin Loses, Indonesia will have a better chance of winning the duel.

[eskey]

I think Lin Dan has proved himself that he could manage the pressure, either in individual tournament or team event. :D

kind of agree with you, especially he has proved it already in the team event, like TC2004 and SC2005.

[ye333]

I don't understand why everyone think Taufik has less
chance to win over Lin Dan. Yes Taufik is quite careless
in team events. However as far as I remember,

1. Taufik is leading Lin Dan in their head-to-head.
2. Lin Dan has never had an easy win over Taufik. No matter
how much effort he puts in the game. Even on his
home ground. While Taufik beat Lin Dan quite easily
in last year's WC.
3. In the most recent 3 encounters, Taufik won 2.
Furthermore, in the 3rd one, the Sudirman cup, Taufik
almost took the 1st game. Consider it is held in China
and Indo already had no chance of winning the cup.
4. Lin Dan is kind of consciously slowing down his games
recently. He would rally more and looking for good
chances to smash. This is a good strategy when
facing others, However when facing Taufik, the
more he rally, the bigger the chance that Taufik will
win it.

Therefore, my point is

1. Taufik may be careless playing other people, but when
facing Lin Dan, the only one that he sees as a real
opponent, he will be much more concentrated.
(Example, 05 Sudirman. Taufik seems to be careless
in the first few points, then he decided to try to win
and almost did it).
2. When Taufik is concentrated on court, it is very hard
for Lin Dan to beat him (05 S); When Taufik is
in addition well-prepared before the game, he can
beat Lin Dan easily (05 WC). So it all depends on
how much "homework" Taufik did before facing
Lin Dan. And according to 1., I believe he will do
his homework.
3. Despite the above analysis, it is very probable that
Taufik will not have any chance to face Lin Dan at
all. Since he will certainly be not well-prepared when
facing those players that he sees as in a lower level
(LCW, Boonsak, even Gade), and in the 21 points
system, he will lose (as in this TC qualification).
Hope this TC qualification will wake him up. He
should see that unlike under the 15 points system,
he cannot afford to lose 5 or 6 points at the beginning
of the game anymore.

So, overall, I think Taufik is 55:45 to Lin Dan. While it
is very possible that he would lose to LCW or Boonsak
or Gade.

[ctjcad]

So, IMO, if Indonesia wanna win the TC, Taufik and the 2 doubles may not lost to other team. It is hard to rely on Sony and Simon and especially the 4th single (if he is played).

:rolleyes:
Just a bit of info from Jawapos, but for the TC team, PBSI has assigned Markus Wijanu as their 4th single player...hmm, very interesting, knowing that Markus has never competed in this event before.. :rolleyes: :confused:

[eskey]

Just a bit of info from Jawapos, but for the TC team, PBSI has assigned Markus Wijanu as their 4th single player...hmm, very interesting, knowing that Markus has never competed in this event before.. :rolleyes: :confused:

because PBSI has no other senior player to pick, so has to choose one of the junior players. it shows indeed that regeneration of player is slowing down for indonesia, especially for MS. before TC qualifying supposed to be Tommy Sugiarto, but then Markus had better performance in Malaysia Satellite as the last measurement, so he was choosen as 4th MS..

[jug8man]

[QUOTE=indra]When China meets Indonesia in Semi or Final...this would be very interesting.
I don't think China will field Lin Dan to play taufik.
Li Yong Bo must understand that fielding Lin Dan to face Taufik is just like placing China on the brink of the " failure ravine". ALthoug Lin Dan is considered to be the most consistent player now...it does not mean that he can handle the "unpredictable Taufik" whom he lost in the last two important encounters. QUOTE]

I agree, Even a mighty mountain will be drowned IF the heavens rain enough. The big question is will Taufik Bring it???


The Borneon BaddyNut

[melinda]

When China meets Indonesia in Semi or Final...this would be very interesting.
I don't think China will field Lin Dan to play taufik.
Li Yong Bo must understand that fielding Lin Dan to face Taufik is just like placing China on the brink of the " failure ravine". ALthoug Lin Dan is considered to be the most consistent player now...it does not mean that he can handle the "unpredictable Taufik" whom he lost in the last two important encounters. I believe Li Yong Bo won't take that rick. He might field Bao Chun Lai instead who has a better record of playing against Taufik. However, in my analysis whoever meets Taufik must be super extra careful because they are playing in the "Real" showdown. And I am very sure that we will see the real Taufik when he plays in a life or death match....

If Li Yong Bo forces Lin Dan to play Taufik.....chances are Lin Dan will lose.
If Lin Loses, Indonesia will have a better chance of winning the duel.Like Hidayat, like indra or vice versa:p

[s1nn3r]

I really doubt lin dan will lose facing taufik in TC because, taufik will be under heavy presure while lin dan more realx because of china having more depth in their squad. further more with the new scoring format. this is a new ball GAME!!

[uluh dayak]

i think no country can afford losing first ms against indonesia. not even China. The MD's are almost sure points. so, either you get the first ms or not at all.

[asphyxiate]

I really doubt lin dan will lose facing taufik in TC because, taufik will be under heavy presure while lin dan more realx because of china having more depth in their squad. further more with the new scoring format. this is a new ball GAME!!

Seems like things'll be really unpredictable due to the scoring format... and who really knows what Taufik'll be like. He's kind of off and on but if he's playing well then he'll own and likely beat Lin Dan.

[seven]

With the new scoring system, Lin Dan's stamina will no longer be an advantage...
He might not be the best player to field... :rolleyes:

[byelnats]

Just remember that most of Indonesia's finest performance are when they were the underdog and some of their worst performance are when they were the favourites.

As Titan said, they are like an injured tiger. An injured tiger is still a tiger. They are still able to bare their fangs and claws.