Did IBF make the correct decision in postponing the World Championships? [Archive]

lclazaro

05-04-2003, 08:37 AM

The decision of the IBF may have been the right thing to do but it really made a lot of badminton fans upset, including me, of course.
Anyway, i agree to one of the posts that this SARS thing has been blown out of proportion so i attached this news report discussing this (its a little long but i believe its worth reading):

U.S. Virus Experts Slam SARS Panic
Mon April 28, 2003 04:54 PM ET
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - People around the world are overreacting to SARS, creating a sense of panic that could overwhelm common-sense measures for containing the virus, top AIDS experts said on Monday.
Sensational media coverage of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which has killed 326 people worldwide, has fanned the flames, said David Baltimore, who won the 1975 Nobel Prize in medicine for his work on how viruses cause disease.
"I think there has been overreaction," Baltimore, a leading AIDS researcher who is now president of the California Institute of Technology, said in a telephone interview.
"I have to agree with that," added Dr. David Ho, another top AIDS expert who heads the Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center in New York.
"Obviously, the fear comes from the fact that this is a novel disease. Many aspects of this epidemic are still mysterious. Fear of SARS is outrunning SARS per se," Ho added.
Ho and Baltimore ought to know. AIDS kills virtually everyone it infects without treatment and 20 years into the AIDS epidemic there is no cure and no vaccine.
In contrast, 94 percent of SARS patients recover.
Baltimore said World Health Organization moves have been appropriate, such as the controversial recommendation against travel to Toronto, where 21 people have died from SARS.
But boycotts of Chinese-owned businesses and scenes of people walking the streets of Hong Kong wearing surgical masks show that the general public does not understand the real dangers, Baltimore said.
"As much as overreaction, there has been a lack of balance, of putting it into perspective, because it is a real problem, no question," Baltimore said.
"But people clearly have reacted to it with a level of fear that is incommensurate with the size of the problem and I think it is getting in the way of a reasonable response."
"IRRESPONSIBLE" COVER-UP
The government in China, where SARS appears to have originated late last year, has been criticized for covering up the initial outbreak -- but officials there have said they feared creating the sort of panic that has been seen.
"The Chinese government was totally irresponsible in covering it up," Baltimore said. "We can't get away from that. It is a demonstration of the value of openness."
WHO has praised Vietnam for its response -- which was to immediately call for international help in handling its own outbreak of SARS. WHO has declared Vietnam to be free of SARS.
"This thing literally never would have happened on anything like the scale it happened if the Chinese had been open about it from the beginning," Baltimore said.
SARS, caused by a relative of one of the common cold viruses, has infected an estimated 5,300 people in nearly 30 countries. It has a mortality rate of about 6 percent, which is higher than comparable respiratory diseases such as influenza.
But while SARS is new and frightening, its impact, so far, has been minor. In a mild year, influenza and its complications kill an estimated 250,000 people around the world. Malaria kills at least a million, mostly children.
Yet earlier this month two Chinese runners were asked to pull out of a marathon in the Netherlands because of SARS fears. Many cities have reported people are avoiding Chinatown districts -- including New York, where no SARS cases have been confirmed.
"What happened to Hong Kong, for example, with the hotel occupancy rate at 2 percent, is an overreaction," Ho said.
Much can be blamed on media coverage, Baltimore said. "What we are seeing is a playing up of the things that make people worry," he said.
But, he added, perhaps scary reports are just giving readers and viewers what they want.
"In some sense people like to be frightened," he said. "And so, to some extent what I am saying is a denial of what seems to be a basic human instinct -- to get a sort of frisson (shiver) of excitement out of danger. And the press is playing into that."

colin

05-04-2003, 11:11 AM

The IBF's decision to postpone the WC is another example of over-reaction to SARS. Provided they screen the players in their home countries beforehand there shouldn't be any risk.

I would have thought that super fit athletes like the world class players who have been training intensively for the WC are not likely to have SARS anyway.....

raymond

05-04-2003, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by colin
The IBF's decision to postpone the WC is another example of over-reaction to SARS. Provided they screen the players in their home countries beforehand there shouldn't be any risk.

I would have thought that super fit athletes like the world class players who have been training intensively for the WC are not likely to have SARS anyway.....

Hmmm... I'm not worrying so much about the players themselves (though as
so one once put it, their chances are also non-zeros). Rather, it's the spectators
that I'm concerned about; they're the one elbowing each other, shouting, chanting,
coughing.... And don't forget that this disease is highly contagious - the virus
apparent can survive outside of human bodies (surfaces that the carriers/patients
touch) for up to a day. And consider the number of medical care personnels who
contracted the diseases themselves (they must have been in the "best" protective
gears current state-of-the-art can offer them, don't you think).

Here's another story I heard from a recent news (or is that from Yahoo?): apparently
someone contracted with SARS (or suspected of contracted) knowingly attended
a funeral, putting hundreds of people at risk. Consider the response from this
forum, it won't surprise me that fanatics like this would show up in WC as
spectators (besides, don't forget there's a incubation period of approx. 10 days,
so the victims might not even know they already have it).

If we in the world communities at large are still being complacent, this could prove
to be dangerous. New cases of confirmed contraction and new deaths are reported
from China/H.K. and a few other places on a daily basis. This thing is far from over.

And Kwun, I can certainly empathize with those who suffer some financial losses.
I suppose they can still go there, except without the WC.

Cheung

05-04-2003, 12:46 PM

I think they'll be just as likely to get SARS as anybody else. Only they won't be playing badminton after catching it.

raymond

05-04-2003, 01:13 PM

My reaction to lclazaro's excerpted news quote the so called experts are trying
to be "experts" in everything. If Dr. Ho, and those experts at Baltimore know so
much about the disease, I'd strongly urge them to share with the rest of the
world. As I mentioned before, new cases (confirmed, suspected, and deaths)
are reported on a daily basis, even here in the Bay Area. Have they offered
anything useful in confronting this disease yet?

Perhaps it's these "experts" who are trying to ge unconventional/controversial
to gain publicity?

Can we compare SARS with Influenza? I thought we've vaccine to fight
Influenza already, no?

AIDS is different from SARS - there things you can avoid doing to prevent
contraction (and this precaution seems to be working). In that sense, it's well
understood. Yes, people are recovering. But I also heard the virus is mutating.
People as young (and ought to be more resistent) as 20-30 somethings got killed.
Okay, there's a 5% mortality rate. Would you call this low? 5 people out of 100
contracting this would die. What happens if this's someone you know/love, or even
yourself.

Note that I'm not trying to scare anyone here. Just thought that we all ought to
be more cautious until the "real" experts understand exactly how the disease
is spread and what we can do to avoid/prevent contracting it, even if it means we
need to live our lives with surgical masks, albeit for a short while.

Cheung

05-04-2003, 01:27 PM

That's why implementing health questionnaire's and temperature checking at ports of entry should be done earlier rather than later. Other than that, compulsory quarantine for otherwise well people is a drastic measure. I feel it impinges on one's civil liberties, given the low probability of cacthing SARS at this moment in time.

HK situation is bad because WHO has this thing called a travel advisory alert. That's why hotels are underfilled. Wonder if Dr Ho considered that;)

Aparently, the mortality for other types on 'known' pneumonia is 14-15%......

Rohly

05-04-2003, 02:58 PM

I think it was the right decision.

raymond

05-04-2003, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by Cheung

Aparently, the mortality for other types on 'known' pneumonia is 14-15%......

Do these "known" pneumonia have good ways to prevent/avoid? And how
contagious are they? I know I'm some what off topic here...

dlp

05-04-2003, 07:21 PM

I'm not about to debate the relative risks of SARS because I am not an expert. This is why I think the IBF should have listened to the experts in UK government, UK sport, WHO, and it seems at the time the balance of expert opinion was that there waere no travel restrictions and events could go ahead in UK

Bbn

05-04-2003, 07:27 PM

On toilet wall somewhere in England :

Be alert, the country needs lerts.

Bbn

05-04-2003, 07:29 PM

Maybe explains why Msia is so successful in checking disease.

Bbn

05-04-2003, 09:28 PM

Loh

05-04-2003, 11:42 PM

England may not have experienced the SARS outbreak as some other unfortunate countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong, but if Birmingham were to go ahead with the scheduled WC, England will be exposed to the virus from visitors and possibly players of SARS infected countries. It was the "open" free travel policy that brought both S'pore, HK and other countries to their present calamity. Initially, we thought that the virus can be contained and therefore were more relaxed. Not until the number of cases snowballed and more deaths occured.

As Bbn has just hightlighted, the virus has a 4-day lifespan and will not be able to recognize whether you are a world-class badminton player and therefore should be avoided. The virus attacks everybody - young and old, strong and weak.

Postpone the WC I agree, before anything untoward happens and brings a bad name to World Badminton, the IBF and England. Human lives are too precious to be taken away innocently. No amount of money or profits can bring happiness back to SARs affected families if deaths continue to mount. Not until we know more about this much-dreaded disease and find a solution to defeat it.

Cheung

05-05-2003, 04:21 AM

Originally posted by Loh
England may not have experienced the SARS outbreak as some other unfortunate countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong, but if Birmingham were to go ahead with the scheduled WC, England will be exposed to the virus from visitors and possibly players of SARS infected countries. It was the "open" free travel policy that brought both S'pore, HK and other countries to their present calamity. Initially, we thought that the virus can be contained and therefore were more relaxed. Not until the number of cases snowballed and more deaths occured.

Sigh, it's not a case of 'will be exposed to virus'. It has already happened!! Other countries have had open travel policy and do not have the widespread situation occuring. Please be rational. I might like to add that there are many people travelling around, and yet, we have not seen the widespread snowballing effect as initially first feared.

There are four main areas to control this disease so far:
1) hospitals - that means stringent infection control and very restricted visiting rights
2) travel - health checks including temperature.
3) personal hygiene
4) frequent cleaning with bleach/disinfectants

As I recommended before, health and temperature checks should be instituted if the WC had gone ahead. It could have taken place, if reasonable precuations had been instituted - and no, that does not mean wearing a surgical mask.;) How many people in S'pore, M'sia, Toronto do you see wearing a surgical mask outside hospital?

Bbn

05-05-2003, 06:04 AM

Is a person supposed to be quaratined at home

capable of carrying virus? Is it possible to monitor

the movements of suspects even in law-abiding Singapore?

LazyBuddy

05-05-2003, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by colin
The IBF's decision to postpone the WC is another example of over-reaction to SARS. Provided they screen the players in their home countries beforehand there shouldn't be any risk.

I would have thought that super fit athletes like the world class players who have been training intensively for the WC are not likely to have SARS anyway.....

To me, "over-reacting" is much better than "no react".

As for now, SARS is almost "unstoppable" (w/o no proper medicine, operation, procedures to deal with). With such a big events (international), while gathering thousands of athletes, coaches, and fans, is surely putting UK and the ppl into much higher risk.

As a baddy fan, it's of course very sad to me to see such an even got postponded. However, is it really worth to put thousands (and possibly "snowballed" later on) lives in risk? No, not at all. Plus, there's a big chance, a lot of top players, coaches, and die hard fans won't dare to show up anyway. Who wants to be sentenced to dead, just for a trophy 2 months ealier? Excuse me for an example. Say, u r watching the intensive games. However, one fan (to be more scary, say, looks like asian) kinda kept coughing next to u? What's ur reaction? Leave asap? Or, just think, "nah, regular flu or allergy???" Surely somehow get bothered a little bit, and won't be able to fully enjoy the events, right?

For the "health" part, the research shows SARS acting less dangerous on young children than adults. Therefore, the majority crew (95%+) are the "high risk" range. Also, if doctors (at least 1 in TH and another one in HK or TW already) and nurses who are experts dealing with diseases, and have all the access to facilities and medicines could be infacted and killed, then good healty athletes won't be an exception, either.

colin

05-05-2003, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by LazyBuddy
To me, "over-reacting" is much better than "no react".

As for now, SARS is almost "unstoppable" (w/o no proper medicine, operation, procedures to deal with). With such a big events (international), while gathering thousands of athletes, coaches, and fans, is surely putting UK and the ppl into much higher risk.

For the "health" part, the research shows SARS acting less dangerous on young children than adults. Therefore, the majority crew (95%+) are the "high risk" range. Also, if doctors (at least 1 in TH and another one in HK or TW already) and nurses who are experts dealing with diseases, and have all the access to facilities and medicines could be infacted and killed, then good healty athletes won't be an exception, either.

I understand your concern about the lack of a cure for SARS, but again I will stick to my initial assertion that this is an over reaction. If the authorities are so concerned about the spread of SARS in UK, then why not cancel the football (soccer) matches where thousands of people gather in very vocal support of their teams? Another point is that the badminton WC is not the Olympics so I doubt if "thousands" of athletes will turn up.

The doctors and nurses who were infected were in direct and very close contact with confirmed SARS patients in intensive care, and most were infected in the early stages of the outbreak before much was known about the transmission of the virus. There is no comparison of this scenario with attending a sports event in a country where SARS is NOT a major health problem. Again, I say this is an over reaction!

raymond

05-05-2003, 09:00 PM

As an aside, looks like the votes are quite balanced so far.

Does the S/W have any safeguard to guarantee each member to
one and only one vote per thread?

kwun

05-05-2003, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by raymond
As an aside, looks like the votes are quite balanced so far.

Does the S/W have any safeguard to guarantee each member to
one and only one vote per thread?

try to vote again... ;)

Hugo

05-05-2003, 09:24 PM

Errrr, I've refrained from voting so far because I'm not really sure what I feel. On one hand, of course I want the tourney to go on as I've been waiting so long for this(and silently cheering for CH and XXZ as well). On the other, it would be a tremendous blow to the game if players fell ill, especially if they included my favorites. I just hope SARS is solved quickly and international baddy schedule gets right back on track. Still no vote yet though...

Loh

05-05-2003, 11:29 PM

Like Lazybuddy and others, I still prefer "prevention is better than cure" and to err on the side of caution.

Cheung has made a strong case of putting in place the number of preventive measures to combat and isolate Sars and indeed many more countries have been advised by WHO to put them into action. But, despite so-called expert advice and such measures being adopted, Sars still persists.

As Sars originated from China and the Chinese are almost at every nook and corner of the world, it would appear that no country can be immuned from it. Europe has the least number of cases and no deaths so far (Britian has 6 and even faraway NZ has one), but for how long can this situation remain is left to be seen. Not only must the government be resolute in implementing WHO measures but the people must be disciplined enough to adhere to set rules to ensure that there is no leakage. With people breaking quarantine orders and going about infecting others, there will be no end to the problem, as is reported to be rampant in China!

Even Taiwan, which should have benefitted from the experience of other Sars-infected countries since Sars invaded her shores only recently, is now getting a serious case of Sars outbreak which shows no signs of abating. Sars cases have tripled to 116 in just under 2 weeks and with 2 more deaths yesterday, the death toll has swelled to 10. And the main reason is that there was rampant violation of quarantine orders.

What would have been the scenario like at Birmingham? You can't prevent badminton fanatics from the Asian countries from attending the WC. The spectator numbers may be smaller but all you need is one Sars carrier to cause untold misery to others should he succeed in infecting them. Remember, you may have excellent preventive measures in place, but human behaviour may not be ideal. Then the Sars cases in the UK may no longer be in single digit any more. In fact, even without the WC, the numbers will increase.

So, why invite trouble if you can avoid it?

Cheung

05-06-2003, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by Loh
So, why invite trouble if you can avoid it?

Exactly, but cancelling the tournament is only one measure. There are other ways in which to tackle the problem.

If you are going to cancel because of SARS, then other sports meets should follow suit. Like was mentioned before, those larger gatherings at baseball, basketball, soccer are going to be at just as high risk.

Taiwan's quarantine measures are less that ideal. The way they did it was very draconian and unneccessary, IMHO. Just look at their information dissemination. Medical staff were throwing out messages saying "we all are going to die"! What does that tell you?

The lessons to be learnt should have been taken from the HK, S'porean and Toronto experiences.

In particular:
1) information dissemination and education is vitally important. It provides a slight degree of control to an individual (China problem)
2) knowing that health measures are in place provides additional security
3) HK and S'pore have shown quarantining individual households work, no need to quarantine whole buildings unless more than one household has been affected
4) If you are going to quarantine a houshold, you have to make up for their loss of income (canadian problem). Education on the importance of the quarantine and that running away will not help prevent the disease is vitally important (China, Taiwan and also HK partially)
5) hospital staff coming down with disease occur when there is: i) lack of knowledge, ii) lack of equipment, iii) lack of proper education within hospital staff (e.g. cleaners), iv) tiredness leading to mistakes, v) sudden increase in paitient numbers.
6) social responsibilty is important - don't go out if you are feeling ill!!

As a note, non-medical people might have the impression that nurses, doctors, etc are really clean in their work. I can tell you for a fact that before SARS came along, it is not the case. Only in specific situations..operations, infectious control wards, leukaemia wards. Otherwise, not as clean as you might expect..sorry to put the reality down in writing.

To be honest, I think the rest of the world is playing a bit of catch up to SARS, maybe 5 weeks ago I was really worried, hence my original posting in the Chitchat forum. We had much less infromation then. Most of the rest of the world was preoccupied with US foreign policy. I think the rest of the world is going through what I felt 5 weeks ago. There will be different phases of the reaction, initally fear, anger, acceptance and action....so we see the rest of the world going the fear stage. It was something that would have happened earlier for other countries if not for the conflict in the middle east.

So what if SARS originated from China. There are plenty of non-chinese in the countries that have been affected and that have returned to their own countries. These people are just as likely to spread to other people. Sorry, I just don't buy it the the WC has predominately Asian players and supporters that that should be used as justification for cancellation. That's why I recommended the health checks for ALL people.

Bbn

05-06-2003, 04:28 AM

Can all citizens be as responsible and considerate as say Japanese?

LazyBuddy

05-06-2003, 12:51 PM

Originally posted by colin
I understand your concern about the lack of a cure for SARS, but again I will stick to my initial assertion that this is an over reaction. If the authorities are so concerned about the spread of SARS in UK, then why not cancel the football (soccer) matches where thousands of people gather in very vocal support of their teams? Another point is that the badminton WC is not the Olympics so I doubt if "thousands" of athletes will turn up.

The doctors and nurses who were infected were in direct and very close contact with confirmed SARS patients in intensive care, and most were infected in the early stages of the outbreak before much was known about the transmission of the virus. There is no comparison of this scenario with attending a sports event in a country where SARS is NOT a major health problem. Again, I say this is an over reaction!

Soccer event, how many fans from Asia (China, HK, TW, Ma's, etc) or Canada going to travel all the way to UK to attend? However, Badminton WC, u will see huge wave of asian fans coming. U don't need everyone to carry SARS, 1 is good enough.

About the direct contact to gain SARS, how close u need? Fans are all sitting and screaming together face to face in a stadium. For the "proving patient", well. Just read an ariticle, SARS virus can stay alive outside in the air for 4 days, under certain situation. Also, the 1st several days, most patient won't really notice (not necessary high fever on teh 1st second) about. That's why it could be so dangerous. Also, what about a healthy person left to attend the event, but get virous on the way (say, air plane), etc???

"Thousands" refer to athletes, coaches, fans, officials, staff, news reporters, etc for a combination. No matter who they are, they are all HUMAN BEING, and have equal chances to be infected...

Bbn

05-07-2003, 08:24 PM

colin

05-09-2003, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by LazyBuddy
Soccer event, how many fans from Asia (China, HK, TW, Ma's, etc) or Canada going to travel all the way to UK to attend? However, Badminton WC, u will see huge wave of asian fans coming. U don't need everyone to carry SARS, 1 is good enough.

About the direct contact to gain SARS, how close u need? Fans are all sitting and screaming together face to face in a stadium. For the "proving patient", well. Just read an ariticle, SARS virus can stay alive outside in the air for 4 days, under certain situation. Also, the 1st several days, most patient won't really notice (not necessary high fever on teh 1st second) about. That's why it could be so dangerous. Also, what about a healthy person left to attend the event, but get virous on the way (say, air plane), etc???

"Thousands" refer to athletes, coaches, fans, officials, staff, news reporters, etc for a combination. No matter who they are, they are all HUMAN BEING, and have equal chances to be infected...

I am not suggesting that the people attending the WC should not be screened, e.g. taking their temperature at the entrance, ensuring everyone wears a face mask etc. You could require people from SARS affected countries to submit a doctor's certificate saying he/she has been clear of SARS for the last two weeks before departure for the WC. But to my knowledge not even the UK health authorities (or the WHO, for that matter) have such a requirement at present, so are the IBF better qualified than the relevant health departments on public health issues? :)

Sure, there's a theoretical risk, but there is more paranoia and fear than any actual risk in the UK at this stage. Otherwise the only thing to do is to shut down the entire system, i.e. close the borders of all the countries (including western countries like Canada) which have had SARS cases.....

This fear of SARS is quite understandable - it's just a fear of the unknown. Think of HIV/AIDS when it first appeared in the late '80s and the fear and paranoia that occurred then. People actually believed they could catch it off toilet seats! Hey, since then we've learned to live with AIDS by taking sensible precautions and with good public health education. Well, SARS is not going away anytime soon, so we will have to learn to live with it as well, the sooner the better, IMHO. As I don't fancy ever playing badminton wearing a face mask! :D

LazyBuddy

05-10-2003, 12:20 AM

Colin,

I can clearly see ur point. However, SARS is very different than HIV/AIDS. HIV/AIDS needs blood contact (yeah, ppl were wrong, but at least u need contact). SARS spread out by air, even the patient might not be here at this moment, but who knows, 5 min ago, there could be one in the room, etc.

Doctor certificate and temp check surely works for a lot of cases. However, u need to know the following as well:

1. What about someone has certificate, but get this virus during travel? Say, air plane?

2. Certain new cases (even though, small percentage) been discovered, that SARS carrier might NOT have high fever for the first several days.

3. Always remember, even though with ur methods, we can eliminate most chances, but we just need ONE carrier, then, nightmare is there. That's exactly how Taiwan got into trouble. Just one person came back and got it in airplane, now, they have tons of cases everyday now.

Of course, percentage vise, the chance is not too big. But, do u want to risk thousands of lives (never have to metion when they go back to their own nations) just for a delay of event for say several months???

Sometimes, we can not deal with problem with pure math, and count for percentage. Before we can find an effective way to deal with such a life related problem, it's really not right to just throw thousands of lives from every corner of the world together.

colin

05-10-2003, 02:38 AM

Originally posted by LazyBuddy
Colin,

I can clearly see ur point. However, SARS is very different than HIV/AIDS. HIV/AIDS needs blood contact (yeah, ppl were wrong, but at least u need contact). SARS spread out by air, even the patient might not be here at this moment, but who knows, 5 min ago, there could be one in the room, etc.

Doctor certificate and temp check surely works for a lot of cases. However, u need to know the following as well:

1. What about someone has certificate, but get this virus during travel? Say, air plane?

2. Certain new cases (even though, small percentage) been discovered, that SARS carrier might NOT have high fever for the first several days.

3. Always remember, even though with ur methods, we can eliminate most chances, but we just need ONE carrier, then, nightmare is there. That's exactly how Taiwan got into trouble. Just one person came back and got it in airplane, now, they have tons of cases everyday now.

Of course, percentage vise, the chance is not too big. But, do u want to risk thousands of lives (never have to metion when they go back to their own nations) just for a delay of event for say several months???

Sometimes, we can not deal with problem with pure math, and count for percentage. Before we can find an effective way to deal with such a life related problem, it's really not right to just throw thousands of lives from every corner of the world together.

LazyBuddy,

I appreciate and understand your point of view. Believe when I say I also understand the seriousness of a SARS infection - I'm a medic working in HK!!

Fortunately it looks like SARS is NOT an airborne disease like Ebola, otherwise there would be tens of thousands, if not more, people infected by now. It appears to be spread by close contact with infected patients who cough or sneeze droplets into the air. There is now evidence to suggest that it can be spread by surface contact, i.e. it can survive on surfaces and contaminate your hands which then can infect you when you rub your nose or eyes.

To respond to your points:

1. That's why all passengers, including transit passengers, must be screened before being allowed on board. The cases of infection during air travel occurred early in the outbreak when no such screening procedures were in place, and sick passengers were coughing and sneezing in the cabin. Otherwise the air in the cabin is probably cleaner than the air we normally breath (at least here in polluted HK!) as it is filtered, just like the air in an intensive care unit.

2. Good point. But then they might not be infectious during that period either....

3. The mess in Taiwan is mainly due to fear and paranoia run amok. If the people there respected and cooperated with the quarantine measures, there would be much less of a problem there now....

4. I have nothing against postponing the WC for a valid reason, but I reckon the IBF is presumptuous in thinking they know more about the health issues than the WHO or the UK health authorities who have not recommended such a step. I am justifiably concerned that SARS will be used as an excuse to discriminate against people from certain SARS affected regions - it’s already happening with a US university cancelling the courses of students and a UK school sending pupils to an island for quarantine even though there is no evidence they have ever been exposed to SARS.....

I believe in a proportionate and reasonable response to an admittedly serious and difficult health issue. Fear and paranoia will only cloud the issues that need to be aired.

Thanks for listening.

raymond

05-10-2003, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by colin
LazyBuddy,

I appreciate and understand your point of view. Believe when I say I also understand the seriousness of a SARS infection - I'm a medic working in HK!!

A "medic"? You're a medical doctor?

Originally posted by colin

Fortunately it looks like SARS is NOT an airborne disease like Ebola, otherwise there would be tens of thousands, if not more, people infected by now. It appears to be spread by close contact with infected patients who cough or sneeze droplets into the air. There is now evidence to suggest that it can be spread by surface contact, i.e. it can survive on surfaces and contaminate your hands which then can infect you when you rub your nose or eyes.
!!

Really, it seems to me understanding of this disease is so new that new
"evidences" are discovered on a moment notice. E.g.

1. Treatment (with an antiviral drug) that showed promise in H.K. (?) during
first week of treatment actually didn't work as well as expected. Symptoms
worsen in the next 2 weeks.
2. Death rate globally is more like 15% than originally reported 5%. Who
knows if this rate statistically would grow higher above 15% or lower below
5%?

The point being that we're still in the phase of understanding the problem
and statistics gathering. If one cannot even understand what problem he
is dealing with, how can he begin to assess its seriousness?

Originally posted by colin

To respond to your points:

1. That's why all passengers, including transit passengers, must be screened before being allowed on board. The cases of infection during air travel occurred early in the outbreak when no such screening procedures were in place, and sick passengers were coughing and sneezing in the cabin. Otherwise the air in the cabin is probably cleaner than the air we normally breath (at least here in polluted HK!) as it is filtered, just like the air in an intensive care unit.

Perhaps the world needs to do a lot more than it is already doing today.
Mandatory screening (what type, and how, BTW? Temperature again? We
probably need more definitive testing, which I think we can already do; with
result in an hour or so) for all passengers prior to entering any port of entry
in the world is probably a good way to cope. But this measure, along with
recently terrorist attacks, would make your trip to airport (or clear the airport)
more like a whole day event.

Originally posted by colin

2. Good point. But then they might not be infectious during that period either....

Now this would be a loophole. Are you flipping coins?

Originally posted by colin

3. The mess in Taiwan is mainly due to fear and paranoia run amok. If the people there respected and cooperated with the quarantine measures, there would be much less of a problem there now....

But we can't simply blame it on the people. The question is whether
there's anything we can do to control/change this. This being human
nature, perhaps quarantine measures as executed in Taiwan is not
working well. And there'd be no guarantee it would work better anywhere
else in the world either (given large enough a group of people is infected
to strain the system resources).

The key is try to be proactive, try to look ahead and see how you can avoid
getting into a desparate situation before it even arises.

Take another look at China. First it's cover-up. Then their Prime Minister
came out and said they would positively face and fight this disease. WHO,
on the other hand, announced only a few days ago cases in China (Beijin in
particular) hasn't peaked yet. Once a certain critical mass is built, it apparently
takes a lot more than will power to fight off.

Andrew Grove of Intel had a book "Only the Paranoids survive".
[/B][/QUOTE]

Originally posted by colin

4. I have nothing against postponing the WC for a valid reason, but I reckon the IBF is presumptuous in thinking they know more about the health issues than the WHO or the UK health authorities who have not recommended such a step.

Your comment really puzzles me. While I don't know what UK health
authorities said, didn't WHO (and CDC in US BTW) advises people to avoid
traveling to SARS infected places? Why do you think they gave such an advice?

Common sense would seem to suggest to me that travelling in the oppositive
direction (from SARS infected places to places not affected, yet) should also be
controlled/restricted.

A lot of companies had taken the measure in restricting/canceling travel to
the SARS infected countries. And in cases travel must be done, personnels
need to go through at least 10 days of quarantine before they can go back
to work.
[/B][/QUOTE]

Originally posted by colin
I am justifiably concerned that SARS will be used as an excuse to discriminate against people from certain SARS affected regions - it’s already happening with a US university cancelling the courses of students and a UK school sending pupils to an island for quarantine even though there is no evidence they have ever been exposed to SARS.....
[/B]

So you think it's still not justifiable?
Perhaps the measures that places like H.K. are taking nowaday are already
enough and effective. But I'd like to see more long term data (from statistical
sample space standpoint, I want more samples). My view is that, whether
people today is too paranoid, and whether any of these measures (quarantine,
surgical masks, washing hands) are actually effective or not, can only be
judged in hindsight.

It may be one or two years from now, everyone that survives would all look
back and laugh at himeself. But if we're complacent today, 1-2 years from
now, we could all be crying, wondering if we've a second chance to do it right
again.

This to me is common sense!

raymond

05-10-2003, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by raymond
So you think it's still not justifiable?
Perhaps the measures that places like H.K. are taking nowaday are already
enough and effective. But I'd like to see more long term data (from statistical
sample space standpoint, I want more samples). My view is that, whether
people today is too paranoid, and whether any of these measures (quarantine,
surgical masks, washing hands) are actually effective or not, can only be
judged in hindsight.

It may be one or two years from now, everyone that survives would all look
back and laugh at himeself. But if we're complacent today, 1-2 years from
now, we could all be crying, wondering if we've a second chance to do it right
again.

This to me is common sense! [/B]

Let me clarify my last point a bit more. Places like China, H.K., Singapore,
Taiwan are the first victims of this "acute" disease. They'd be the front line in
this war. Whatever measures they're taking, they're forced into it. I'm sure
the rest of the world, for one reason or another, would hope that some of these
measures turn out to be winning formula.

But while they're experimenting with all these measures, there's no reason to
risk importing this virus to anywhere else, and repeat the same experiments
already underway that may eventually prove in vain!

raymond

05-10-2003, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by Cheung
Exactly, but cancelling the tournament is only one measure. There are other ways in which to tackle the problem.

If you are going to cancel because of SARS, then other sports meets should follow suit. Like was mentioned before, those larger gatherings at baseball, basketball, soccer are going to be at just as high risk.

That perhaps is the right response. It seems at this point, governments around
the world have mostly leave it up to individual organizations to make individual
decisions. IBF doesn't control other events like baseball, basketball etc. But
then again, as someone already mentioned, comparing all these sports, you've
a heavy concentration of Asians in badminton. Perhaps that explains the differences
in policy.

Originally posted by Cheung

The lessons to be learnt should have been taken from the HK, S'porean and Toronto experiences.

In particular:
1) information dissemination and education is vitally important. It provides a slight degree of control to an individual (China problem)

Education would help to some extent... Information dissemination so far in China
is nothing more than bin counting. Even with all this information, we are still
debating whether IBF is making the right decision postponing WC :rolleyes:
Frankly, I don't recall the last time massive quarantine was adopted (it's much like
the 10-year old movie "Outbeark"). Apparently, this still is not strong enough a
message for some people.

Originally posted by Cheung
5) hospital staff coming down with disease occur when there is: i) lack of knowledge, ii) lack of equipment, iii) lack of proper education within hospital staff (e.g. cleaners), iv) tiredness leading to mistakes, v) sudden increase in paitient numbers.
[/B]

This shows that not all medical personnels are created equally. In fact, I watched
one program (a Chinese one?) that interviewed someone apparently in a position
of responsibility. He made the point that only a small subset of all doctors and
nurses are well verse in lung diseases, such as pneumonia. Really, not all "experts"
are experts.

When you think you're listening to an expert, question his authority in that
field first.

Originally posted by Cheung
6) social responsibilty is important - don't go out if you are feeling ill!!
[/B]
Don't count on it! Anyone rational, or already has that sense of responsibility
would probably not go out anyway, regardless of any public education.

Originally posted by Cheung
To be honest, I think the rest of the world is playing a bit of catch up to SARS, maybe 5 weeks ago I was really worried, hence my original posting in the Chitchat forum.
[/B]

Maybe having lived in fear for 5 weeks, you're just too tired now. :) (Sorry Cheung,
I know this is no laughing matter, but just couldn't resist in this case).

Originally posted by Cheung
So what if SARS originated from China. There are plenty of non-chinese in the countries that have been affected and that have returned to their own countries. These people are just as likely to spread to other people.
[/B]

This just proves the point that the disease is commutable.

Originally posted by Cheung
Sorry, I just don't buy it the the WC has predominately Asian players and supporters that that should be used as justification for cancellation. That's why I recommended the health checks for ALL people. [/B]

Only if health check is effective (esp. during incubation when no symptoms are shown). Furthermore, if we're on topic, we're talking about IBF's decision. IBF
cannot control or institute mandatory health check on every travellers to UK for
badminton (or other reason). It's the job of the UK government. IBF is making a
decision given the fact not every single move is under its control.

wilfredlgf

05-10-2003, 01:02 PM

Oh well, it will be held at some other time, no worries. This SARS problem will have to end somehow and the world's shuttlers will be marching their way back to the courts.

I don't believe that it is worth the risk. Postponement is a GOOD idea.

Then again, SARS or not, we will all still be here in BadmintonForum.com, right? :D

raymond

05-10-2003, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by Cheung
That's why implementing health questionnaire's

Questionnaires are just paper work. They really don't work. Think about
all the stupid questions you were asked when you checked in your luggages at
the airport.

You know what the consequence is if you answer "Yes". If you've the conscience,
you won't be travelling. If you don't, it's unlikely for you to answer "Yes".

A system that is based on voluntary participation doesn't work well.

Originally posted by Cheung
HK situation is bad because WHO has this thing called a travel advisory alert. That's why hotels are underfilled. Wonder if Dr Ho considered that;)
[/B]

I thought you said "information dissemination" is important. Do you think WHO
should NOT have issued those advisory alerts?

If Dr Ho's comments were in light of those economic backdrops, then that
clearly is a conflict of interest. At the end of the day, it all boils down to
one's value system. What does one value? If his comments is economically
or financially motivated, then he might have implicitly put a price tag on people's
health/life. Furthermore, if one only thinks about the tangible/immediate
impacts on businesses, what about the financial burdens on health care systems.
Who's paying the medical bills, insurance payment, social security (if the bread
winner of a family dies), lost of earning?

The "experts" are just like the stock analysts. They give stock buy/hold/sell
recommendations. Some of them really mean business. Other means
manipulation. You as an individual are still left with the responsibility on who
to believe/trust. How do you influence ones subjective judgement to help cope
with this case?

Originally posted by Cheung
Aparently, the mortality for other types on 'known' pneumonia is 14-15%...... [/B]
So new statistics had made SARS comparable in mortality rate to the "known"
pneumonia. But I still haven't gotten the answer on how preventable that
"known" pneumonia is.

colin

05-10-2003, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by raymond
A "medic"? You're a medical doctor?

Yes. Are you one, too?

Really, it seems to me understanding of this disease is so new that new
"evidences" are discovered on a moment notice. E.g.

1. Treatment (with an antiviral drug) that showed promise in H.K. (?) during
first week of treatment actually didn't work as well as expected. Symptoms
worsen in the next 2 weeks.
2. Death rate globally is more like 15% than originally reported 5%. Who
knows if this rate statistically would grow higher above 15% or lower below
5%?

The death rate for ”normal” typical pneumonia is actually even higher than 15%, so I am not sure about the point you’re making. There will always be morbidity and mortality related to any disease process.

Perhaps the world needs to do a lot more than it is already doing today.
Mandatory screening (what type, and how, BTW? Temperature again? We
probably need more definitive testing, which I think we can already do; with
result in an hour or so) for all passengers prior to entering any port of entry
in the world is probably a good way to cope. But this measure, along with
recently terrorist attacks, would make your trip to airport (or clear the airport)
more like a whole day event.

Well, that’s the way it will have to be from now on. We will have to learn to live with it.

Now this would be a loophole. Are you flipping coins?

Not at all, I am suggesting that all reasonable screening measures be taken, but no one in the world can guarantee perfection. So what are we supposed to do, close all the borders?? If it’s 100% shut out you want then that’s the only way to go. But this is not happening, so why selectively go after a specific group of people??

But we can't simply blame it on the people. The question is whether
there's anything we can do to control/change this. This being human
nature, perhaps quarantine measures as executed in Taiwan is not
working well. And there'd be no guarantee it would work better anywhere
else in the world either (given large enough a group of people is infected
to strain the system resources).

Well, I would have to disagree with you there. The numbers infected in Taiwan are far lower than that in HK and HK has managed to get the SARS numbers down despite all the fear of the unknown.

The key is try to be proactive, try to look ahead and see how you can avoid
getting into a desparate situation before it even arises.

Agree 100% with you there. But that’s easier said than done.

Your comment really puzzles me. While I don't know what UK health
authorities said, didn't WHO (and CDC in US BTW) advises people to avoid
traveling to SARS infected places? Why do you think they gave such an advice?
Common sense would seem to suggest to me that travelling in the oppositive
direction (from SARS infected places to places not affected, yet) should also be
controlled/restricted.

No, common sense would suggest that you screen the people who are travelling in the opposite direction before letting them in. Otherwise go for closed international borders and hide under the covers in fear!

[/B][/QUOTE]

So you think it's still not justifiable?
Perhaps the measures that places like H.K. are taking nowaday are already
enough and effective. But I'd like to see more long term data (from statistical
sample space standpoint, I want more samples). My view is that, whether
people today is too paranoid, and whether any of these measures (quarantine,
surgical masks, washing hands) are actually effective or not, can only be
judged in hindsight.

It may be one or two years from now, everyone that survives would all look
back and laugh at himeself. But if we're complacent today, 1-2 years from
now, we could all be crying, wondering if we've a second chance to do it right
again.

This to me is common sense! [/B][/QUOTE]

Washing hands and good personal hygiene is not paranoid behaviour, but banning innocent students from continuing their studies certainly is.

OK, enough of SARS. I’m off to play badminton! :D

raymond

05-10-2003, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by Cheung
Sigh, it's not a case of 'will be exposed to virus'. It has already happened!! Other countries have had open travel policy and do not have the widespread situation occuring. Please be rational.
I might like to add that there are many people travelling around, and yet, we have not seen the widespread snowballing effect as initially first feared.

Which countries are you talking about? Outside of Asia, Toronto in Canada is
another place with serious SARS situation. Ever thought about why Toronto?
In case you don't know, there's a large population of Asians from H.K. One can
reasonably expect people there commute back and forth between H.K. and T.O.
often. And look at the statistics.

Apparently, not all travelings are the same! The statistics you quoted ought to
look into which parts of the world those travelings take place. Countries like U.S.
have already come to senses; company traveling to Asians were restricted and
postponed, again and again, replacing in person traveling with video conferencing.

Originally posted by Cheung
As I recommended before, health and temperature checks should be instituted if the WC had gone ahead. It could have taken place, if reasonable precuations had been instituted - [/B]

As I said on another post, IBF can only decide whether WC should be run;
it doesn't run the travel/health inspection organization.

raymond

05-10-2003, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by colin
The death rate for ”normal” typical pneumonia is actually even higher than 15%, so I am not sure about the point you’re making. There will always be morbidity and mortality related to any disease process.

So which one of you is an expert in pneumonia? Cheung or you? ;) This death
rate has jumped from originally reported 5% to 15% today in a matter of 1 month.
I hope this's as high as it'd ever go, but then again, you never know. Furthermore,
to even begin to comprehend its seriousness, you need to know the rate is
a conditional probability (i.e. given you get SARS, your chance of survival is 85%).
But it says nothing about the probability (or controllability) of getting SARS to
begin with. So how do you contrast the two types of pneumonia?

Originally posted by colin
No, common sense would suggest that you screen the people who are travelling in the opposite direction before letting them in. Otherwise go for closed international borders and hide under the covers in fear!

Yes, screening should be put in place. But again not all screening methods
are effective.

Originally posted by colin
Otherwise go for closed international borders and hide under the covers in fear!
[/B]

That may well be what would happen if things get out of hands. You never know ;)

Originally posted by colin

OK, enough of SARS. I’m off to play badminton! :D

Good for you :)

Coming back to the topic. So far most governments in the world leave the travel
decisions or whehter certain events should take place in the hands of individual
organizations. Screening for SARS/healths or not are not what these organizations
can control. They'd have to make their best judgement appropriate to their own
sandboxes.

raymond

05-10-2003, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by wilfredlgf
Then again, SARS or not, we will all still be here in BadmintonForum.com, right? :D

What if some day people discovered that SARS can also be transmitted via the
internet? Just a silly thought :p

raymond

05-10-2003, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by colin
Not at all, I am suggesting that all reasonable screening measures be taken, but no one in the world can guarantee perfection. So what are we supposed to do, close all the borders??

How long do you think it would take to screen all travellers in a busy airport?
For weapons, and for SARS? Even if there's any means to definitively screen
passengers, unless the results is instantaneous, we would probably getting
a rather unmanageable congestion issue.

So an alternative is to not attract that same magnitue of travellers to begin with.
Like companies cutting back on travels, IBF canceling major events. This would
certain ease the airport traveller screening systems, don't you think?

Originally posted by colin
If it’s 100% shut out you want then that’s the only way to go. But this is not happening, so why selectively go after a specific group of people?
[/B]
It is precisely that no one is implementing 100% shut out, that selectively going
after a specific group of people makes sense. Because this's the most effective
measure giving biggest bang of a buck, so to speak.

Cheung

05-10-2003, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by raymond
How long do you think it would take to screen all travellers in a busy airport?
For weapons, and for SARS? Even if there's any means to definitively screen
passengers, unless the results is instantaneous, we would probably getting
a rather unmanageable congestion issue.

So an alternative is to not attract that same magnitue of travellers to begin with.
Like companies cutting back on travels, IBF canceling major events. This would
certain ease the airport traveller screening systems, don't you think?
Wrong. Every person gets screened for weapons detection. Nobody complained and it was accepted as something necessary. Health checks should be considered in the same category. How long does it take to fill out a health questionnaire and take a temperature? The same time as it would to fill out a boarding card.

There are also systems that can detect a raised temperature by just walking through an infrared detector. I don't know the sensitivity of such a method but such machines are now being purchased.

A temperature taken with an ear probe takes less than one minute to detect and record........Not sure if that can be considered instantaneous.

Originally posted by raymond
It is precisely that no one is implementing 100% shut out, that selectively going
after a specific group of people makes sense. Because this's the most effective
measure giving biggest bang of a buck, so to speak.
every time I've been on an plane, my luggage has an XR, I go through a detector. Everybody gets this check. Why not go after groups with known links to groups which advocate violence? Because you can never tell. Same with an infectious disease, everybody should get a health check. Even if people came from US to Asia, they would get a health check and temperature taken in some countries. I say we should do this for everybody and in addition, daily checks for those participants in the WC.

raymond

05-11-2003, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by Cheung
Wrong. Every person gets screened for weapons detection. Nobody complained and it was accepted as something necessary. Health checks should be considered in the same category. How long does it take to fill out a health questionnaire and take a temperature? The same time as it would to fill out a boarding card.

We've got to do what we've got to do. Agree on that. I don't know if incidence
of 911 changes airport security on other parts of the world, but in U.S. (San Frans-
cisco airport, e.g.) security is definitely tightened. You can observed noticeably
longer line up. What's my point? Some countries' airport resources may already
be strained without putting SARS inspection in place.

On the other hand, if filling out a health questionnaire and taking a temperature
is effective (even if it may be overly pessimistic, resulting in too many people
detained) in making sure all SARS carriers are stopped at port of departure, I'm all
for it. This may well be our new reality in near future.

The question is: From the moment one has contracted the disease (and presumably
becomes a carrier) to the time symptoms such as elevated body temperature
develop, is the person capable of spreading the disease. And if there's such
incubation period, how are we supposed to identify them.

Checking body temperature would pick up the obvious cases, but I'm wondering
about the not so obvious ones. We'd not have any statistics on this just by its
nature (you can't count them in your sample space as you can't detect them in the
first place). If you can't count them accurately, how do you propose to evaluate
the effectiveness of this measure. If this measure turns out to be ineffective, we
are just fooling ourselves into a false sense of security.

When I previously said it took some time and express a concern of whether a
test result is instantaneous, I was thinking about a definitive test (??) that I'm
vaguely aware of. The test would give result in an hour or two. And I was thinking
if everyone goes through this test, you'd be able to pick them all up, including
those who haven't shown any elevated temperature.

This measure, while maybe effective in screening SARS patients, would further
strain already limited airport resources. So why not everyone in the world do
his part to not put any more unnecessary load on the system, at least for
the moment?? Is WC a life's or business necessity? Why would anyone want to
insist that?

Furthermore, once again, we're talking about implementing something that IBF
has no control over... I felt like I'm a broken record talking to some broken
records:rolleyes:

Originally posted by Cheung

There are also systems that can detect a raised temperature by just walking through an infrared detector. I don't know the sensitivity of such a method but such machines are now being purchased.

A temperature taken with an ear probe takes less than one minute to detect and record........Not sure if that can be considered instantaneous.

I believed that's something (IR detector?) China has implemented recently (I thing I
saw them in evening news?). Ironically, WHO recently said that China still couldn't
explain how half of the SARS cases originated. My point? We're still trying to figure
things out now. All these quarantine, IR temperature check, questionaires may not
be as effective as people think.

Originally posted by Cheung

every time I've been on an plane, my luggage has an XR, I go through a detector. Everybody gets this check. Why not go after groups with known links to groups which advocate violence? Because you can never tell. Same with an infectious disease, everybody should get a health check. Even if people came from US to Asia, they would get a health check and temperature taken in some countries. I say we should do this for everybody and in addition, daily checks for those participants in the WC.

Yes, there're basic checks that everybody should be subjected to (like body temper-
ature check and questionaires, if implemented at all). But once again
there'd be resource restrictions. Not everyone can be subjected to same extensive
checking. If however this extensive measure is required, then something would
probably have to drop. From resource prioritization standpoint, the likely cases
would be the likely candidates to be picked on. No offence. But people from
Middle East are now on the black list after 911. I suspect a higher percentage of
them would be picked on in security checking (racial profiling?).

Loh

05-11-2003, 10:41 PM

A Minister in Singapore recently quoted the above jokingly and they mean in the Hokkien dialect (Chinese): Fear of Defeat; Fear of Death and of course, Fear of Sars!

Singapore has been very diligent in combating Sars because our government and the citizens know the dire consequences of allowing Sars to overwhelm us. Not only are lives lost, our casualty rate being 28 todate and this includes prominent doctors who were young and healthy, the adverse impact on economic activities was disastrous. We now have in place a slew of measures and up-to-date facilities to identify those affected by Sars, how to control their activities and movements and to prevent infection to others.

Surprisingly, if you had visited Singapore during the early stages of the Sars onslaught, you would find very few people wearing masks. These are mostly restricted to care-givers like nurses, doctors and hospital staff even till today. Maybe it was due to ignorance or was it a case of not over-reacting to the situation since the government has been very transparent in disseminating information and educating the public. Also the government has taken swift action to isolate affected Sars victims and the people they came into contact with by issuing quarantine orders and making sure that they do not break such orders. Even so there were a few cases of breaches and such culprits were taken to task. One entire market, the Pasir Panjang Wholesale Market, had to close down and the stallholders had to be quarantined, because of one infected case and this victim has since died. The financial loss to the affected is tremendous and although the market has since reopened, business is about 50% of what it used to be although some financial compensation from the government is forthcoming. Many other businesses are affected, particularly those engaged in the travel and hotel industry. Yes, our people are less fearful of Sars now as they begin to know more about it but they remain vigilent. It was discovered a few days ago that the original Sars has mutated and there are two different strains. Who knows what will become of it later? And despited being taken out of the travel advisory list and the pronouncement by WHO that Singapore has contained the Sars situation here, we are not resting on our laurels. To quote Professor Ong Yong Yau, CEO of Singapore General Hospital, which was the most hit by an entire cluster of Sars cases, "SGH has gone through a period of two incubation cycles without new cases being reported ... but we can never be sure...I am very worried." Even the Prof is cautious!

I'm very impressed by Raymond's stimulating articulation on this subject and his sound rebuttals.

I agree with Colin that the University which originally bars students from affected Asian countries is over-reacting and somehow sends a wrong signal to Asian students that it is discriminatory. Prospective students can be selectively screened and examined before they are admitted. But I think the IBF is NOT over-reacting when it decided to postpone the WC, precisely because it does not know much about Sars and the fact that there will be an expected influx of both players and spectators from Sars affected Asia, a point which was well argued by Lazybuddy. As Bbn has shown us the many newsclippings, human behaviour is difficult to predict and all you need is one Sars carrier who managed to escape the screening net to infect the other innocent spectators. Then there won't be joy anymore at the WC!

Cheung

05-11-2003, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by raymond
Some countries' airport resources may already
be strained without putting SARS inspection in place. I don't think so, You could train the imigration officer to look at the health deceleration. Temperature taking is a very simple procedure. It takes very little training and that person doesn;t have to be a health care professional

The question is: From the moment one has contracted the disease (and presumablybecomes a carrier) to the time symptoms such as elevated body temperature develop, is the person capable of spreading the disease. And if there's such incubation period, how are we supposed to identify them. good point. We don't know if a person is infectious or not before they have a raised body temperature. You can't identify them. Just like the situation with HIV infection. Many people with HIV walk around doing normal things. I can't see a difference.

Checking body temperature would pick up the obvious cases, but I'm wondering about the not so obvious ones. We'd not have any statistics on this just by its nature (you can't count them in your sample space as you can't detect them in the first place). If you can't count them accurately, how do you propose to evaluate
the effectiveness of this measure. If this measure turns out to be ineffective, we
are just fooling ourselves into a false sense of security. True. No test is 100% effective. Even patients who turn up to Emergency room get sent home and reattend later (for other illnesses too). This is a fact of life. At least temperature measurement and questionnaires are simple measures, easily performed, cheap, require only a small amount of training. Look at the cost:benefit ratio.

When I previously said it took some time and express a concern of whether a test result is instantaneous, I was thinking about a definitive test (??) that I'm vaguely aware of. The test would give result in an hour or two. And I was thinking if everyone goes through this test, you'd be able to pick them all up, including those who haven't shown any elevated temperature. I doubt any disease in the initial stages has such a test. For example, other viruses, at the inital stages of infection, Hep B, HIV, don't show up positive tests. This expectation is too high for the technology we have at the moment.

This measure, while maybe effective in screening SARS patients, would further strain already limited airport resources. So why not everyone in the world do
his part to not put any more unnecessary load on the system, at least for
the moment?? Is WC a life's or business necessity? Why would anyone want to
insist that? You have to be pragmatic. Would you cut down all airplane flights, sports events because of the risk of terrorism? Cancel the Olympics please, somebody....

I believed that's something (IR detector?) China has implemented recently (I thing I saw them in evening news?). Ironically, WHO recently said that China still couldn't explain how half of the SARS cases originated. My point? We're still trying to figure things out now. All these quarantine, IR temperature check, questionaires may not be as effective as people think. Do you think the health care system is as advanced as in US? Consider also the baseline education level of the population. Some patients may not even understand the questions!!

From resource prioritization standpoint, the likely cases
would be the likely candidates to be picked on. No offence. But people from
Middle East are now on the black list after 911. I suspect a higher percentage of
them would be picked on in security checking (racial profiling?). Anybody can be a terrorist threat.

Raymond, sorry if I sound like I disagree with a lot of things. But, the main point is the resource issue. I beleive your emphasis on use of resources can be effectively answered. Terrorist threat uses up a hell of a lot of resources, equipment, maintenance, electric power and personnel. I believe health questionnaires and temp checks are two easily implemented, low cost measures of screening. Chest XR is not 100% diagnostic, CT scan is better but impractical, both of these tests are not practical in screening people who are otherwise asymptomatic.

For the WC, perhaps players arriving from affected countries are at risk. Therefore, the rationale of implementation of screening for ALL of the delegation of all countries (as I suggested earlier) during the tournament. (Possibly could pick up virus in transit). NOT quarantine. Can a person transmit the virus over a distance of 3 metres? No evidence of that either.

Forcefully quarantining people without evidence does more harm than good. Would you forcefully quarantine people from countries with a high rate of HIV and force them to undergo a mandatory blood test after the seroconversion period?

Now, if you said this two months ago, my stance would have been different. I might have said for the WC not to go ahead, but now we have more information.

If I am not mistaken, smallpox is the only virus that has ever been succesfully eradicated by man....coronavirus is not going to be the next one.

Cheung

05-11-2003, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by Loh
And despited being taken out of the travel advisory list and the pronouncement by WHO that Singapore has contained the Sars situation here, we are not resting on our laurels. To quote Professor Ong Yong Yau, CEO of Singapore General Hospital, which was the most hit by an entire cluster of Sars cases, "SGH has gone through a period of two incubation cycles without new cases being reported ... but we can never be sure...I am very worried." Even the Prof is cautious!

I agree with Colin that the University which originally bars students from affected Asian countries is over-reacting and somehow sends a wrong signal to Asian students that it is discriminatory. Prospective students can be selectively screened and examined before they are admitted. But I think the IBF is NOT over-reacting when it decided to postpone the WC, precisely because it does not know much about Sars and the fact that there will be an expected influx of both players and spectators from Sars affected Asia, a point which was well argued by Lazybuddy. As Bbn has shown us the many newsclippings, human behaviour is difficult to predict and all you need is one Sars carrier who managed to escape the screening net to infect the other innocent spectators. Then there won't be joy anymore at the WC!

Loh, the professor is absolutely correct. We must be vigilent. But, he didn't say 'sit tight at home on the toilet and live like a prisoner in fear' (or did he?) My interpretation of vigilence means caution but not restriction.

Many viruses mutate, just like apecies of animals. This is called evolution. (X-men are a different category!!)

I don't understand your logic with the IBF compared to the University. The University allows students in because the University knows more about the disease than the IBF!! The BAofE took the advice of health authorities - a highly responsible action. The IBF? We don't know if they consulted any other health authorities. We need the minutes of their meeting.

BTW, WHO is an advisory alert. It doesn't say you must not go to affected countries unless there was a very good reason. You are only advised not to go. There's no reverse policy. Companies who enforce a 10 day quarantine of their employees do so out of their own company policy. Not because the WHO advises so.....

Bbn

05-11-2003, 11:53 PM

Bbn

05-12-2003, 07:27 AM

See picture from Fist of Fury 1991.

In Beijing people spit everywhere and in winter spit icicles on the street

freeze and people are known to slip on them.Now following Singapore Beijing is

passing a law to fine people for indiscriminate spitting.

Maybe a law can be passed for coughing and sneezing without covering up.

What about you, do you spit, cough and sneeze without consideration for others?

try telling that to the people in say, Msia.

Cheung

05-12-2003, 07:52 AM

Just because people do it doesn't mean an effort cannot be made..

No policy is 100% effective. Health education takes time to permeate through society as with all other types of information.

What happened in the past doesn't mean it cannot be changed in the future.

LazyBuddy

05-12-2003, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by colin

1. That's why all passengers, including transit passengers, must be screened before being allowed on board. The cases of infection during air travel occurred early in the outbreak when no such screening procedures were in place, and sick passengers were coughing and sneezing in the cabin. Otherwise the air in the cabin is probably cleaner than the air we normally breath (at least here in polluted HK!) as it is filtered, just like the air in an intensive care unit.

3. The mess in Taiwan is mainly due to fear and paranoia run amok. If the people there respected and cooperated with the quarantine measures, there would be much less of a problem there now....

1. All the "check up" could be relatively easily done in UK, and many other nations with good medical services. However, in a lot of 3rd world nations, even their international airport don't have enough staff and equipment to check everyone. Plus, maybe we can put very strict rulez for big airport, but what about seaport? Local bus stations? Local train stations? With the possibility that many fans living in small cities, they might be infected in their local trip prior to the international airport.

3. I don't think it's right to blame all the ppl living there. Lucky enough, we are not the ones got infected, and we are the lucky ones our governments have better medical services. Many patients in Asia got infected, not because they are not careful, just because the living condition itself. For example, in HK, some patients got SARS because their apartment have central air system. So, if 1 ppl gets it, so are the neighbors. Also, many poor ppl get SARS just because their living condition is soooo poor. If a family (about 5+) ppl have to squeeze to live in a very small room, and all of them work as the minial wage physcial labors, the chance for them to get infected is very large (poor living condition, poor working condition, no $$$ for mask, no $$$ for regular doctor visit, etc).

Cheung

05-12-2003, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by LazyBuddy
1. All the "check up" could be relatively easily done in UK, and many other nations with good medical services. However, in a lot of 3rd world nations, even their international airport don't have enough staff and equipment to check everyone. Plus, maybe we can put very strict rulez for big airport, but what about seaport? Local bus stations? Local train stations? With the possibility that many fans living in small cities, they might be infected in their local trip prior to the international airport.

Since we are only referring to the WC here, we should apply our checking procedures in context of the world championships.

Well, I bet there are still flights coming in and out of China to Europe. Presumably, if LB, Raymond, Bbn etc are correct, then we should see more severe transmission in another countries. But it's not happening! Put in context of the WC, then the WC doesn't seem to be the high risk that people think it is at.

Please do not get confused with the issue of country screening its ports and screening at the world championships. Sure LB is correct...so what are you going to do, LB? Best thing to do is to lock yourself up inside and never go outside!

If you say the players and delegation are SARS risk being potential carriers. Yes, we can do something. Is it effective? yes, partially. Is there any better test of SARS or for that matter other viruses that can give a result in less than 1 hour? NO

How about the audience? Many coming from overseas? Yes. Many coming from Asia? less so(UK is a long way away). How many potential carriers? Much less. Can they be screened out in less than one hour? NO. Is that any different from any other travellers from these areas? NO....get my drift?

I suspect a few people on this discussion are engineering disciplines. My impression is that, engineers like hard facts. Not probability. Unfortunately, no test in medicine is so hard fact. There are always errors when dealing with biological systems. That's why we have to use statistics. Even 'gold standard' tests have errors.

People on this board demand complete answers that fit nicely in to a package. Sorry to tell you that many times in medicine, you don't get that nice package. Medicine and biological systems are not nice things you can manufacture, build, test to tight tolerances. This is reality - all I suggest for the WC are measures to reduce risk(and have psychological benefit).

Cheung

05-12-2003, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by raymond
Perhaps the world needs to do a lot more than it is already doing today.
Mandatory screening (what type, and how, BTW? Temperature again? We
probably need more definitive testing, which I think we can already do; with
result in an hour or so) Really? What test? What test can tell you that doesn't harm people?

The key is try to be proactive, try to look ahead and see how you can avoid
getting into a desparate situation before it even arises. HK,Toronto, S'pore, Vietnam have proven it. These affected places where the first places to be hit without warning. Successful containment. The proactive part has already been done with the increased publicity and exposure to health authorities across the world.

Perhaps the measures that places like H.K. are taking nowaday are already
enough and effective. But I'd like to see more long term data (from statistical
sample space standpoint, I want more samples). My view is that, whether
people today is too paranoid, and whether any of these measures (quarantine,
surgical masks, washing hands) are actually effective or not, can only be
judged in hindsight. That just tells me you haven't got enough information. You want more information on what? effectiveness? the proof exists already!! Why would WHO lift their travel advisory alert on some areas?;)

Bbn

05-12-2003, 10:43 AM

Malaysia has just announced a rule that people

coming from SARS countries have to be quaratined for 10 days, this means

foreign students need to be quarantined by their college and workers by their

factories.

The local Health Ministry claims that the spread of disease has been checked

because hospitals are well equipped to handle outbreaks as there was one even

deadlier in 1998 ie. the JE from swine. Also the ban on visas on people from

affected countries.

is this any help?

LazyBuddy

05-12-2003, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by Cheung

Please do not get confused with the issue of country screening its ports and screening at the world championships. Sure LB is correct...so what are you going to do, LB? Best thing to do is to lock yourself up inside and never go outside!

I agree with ur point, Cheung.

However, what I was trying to say is, "try to cut down activities, especially big events / gathering, at this particular moments". Necessary living activities have to continue, but relatively un-necessary ones (social party, concernt, sports event) should be limited to a certain level. I know it's sad, but compare to someone losing life, well, still worth it, right?

Personally, I think each countries screening its ports and screening at the world champ is closely related with each other. If the athletes, staff, fans won't go throught their ports to travel to UK, how they going to participate??? I was trying to say, the UK might done a good job in screening, but potential carriers might spread virus even before get to UK. This way, they not just put UK ppl's lives in danger, but all the passengers on board, etc. Since when we talk about a event, the traveling in event (local and international) should be counted.

Sure, the chance is not really big, but as I and many others metioned several times, we just need ONE carrier, to put everyone's (or, at least a lot of others, with early detection) life in danger. Plus, the event is just postponed for several months (2, 3???), not like 10 yrs, and out of reach something.

Just some personal point of view. ;)

LazyBuddy

05-12-2003, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by Cheung

Well, I bet there are still flights coming in and out of China to Europe. Presumably, if LB, Raymond, Bbn etc are correct, then we should see more severe transmission in another countries. But it's not happening! Put in context of the WC, then the WC doesn't seem to be the high risk that people think it is at.

In US, many companies (including mine) cut down the business trips to Asia. Unless it's very necessary, no one really want to or should really take the risk.

Yeah, still flights around these days. But that does not mean there's no danger. Emergency and important issues still have to be taken care of, but I am sure regular social and tour trips been greatly cut down already.

Here's my example. There are certain areas in NYC are considered as dangerous places. With gangsters, drug dealers around, and crime rate relatively higher than average, city government warn ppl don't travel through there alone at night. However, we still see ppl walking on street, taxi still running, bus still running, subway still in services, ppl still visiting their friends/family there. However, all the facts can't prove that several places are safe. We all know what we should do - only go there when it's necessary, but if we have other options, do NOT go!!!

Of course, compare to SARS, my example seems like nothing. But I think they are under the same theory - a lot of things on surface and a fairly small %%% might not really reflect how dangerous it could be...

Cheung

05-12-2003, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by LazyBuddy
Sure, the chance is not really big, but as I and many others metioned several times, we just need ONE carrier, to put everyone's (or, at least a lot of others, with early detection) life in danger. Plus, the event is just postponed for several months (2, 3???), not like 10 yrs, and out of reach something.

This is the point; the argument put forward for delay of WC have far reaching consequences. There is always potential for the next disease to pop up or another flare-up of SARS (though hopefully better containment). That is definately a possible scenario. So what happens? Ans: all major sports events should be cancelled indefinately because it only takes one person (other BFer's arguments, not mine).......

There's no such thing as NO risk...you could get meningitis from a person sitting next to you, BSE from eating your hamburger etc. I get the impression that BFer's are demanding no risk and definitive tests - both of which do not exist.

Just to show I am being quite fair, I do understand people's concerns. But if people start asking for the impossible - well, nothing would get acheived.

Nice point about the crime. But shows, cinema still go on. These can be classed as non-necessities. So why do people still go despite the risk of crime? Reason, certain activities have a lower risk. That is exactly what I proposed...lower the risk with the screening and temperature checks.

That's a funny statement by M'sia coming when most places have the disease checked or coming under control!! Hate to be cynical but that seems a bit like a publicity stunt. Imagine if they did this two weeks ago and the consequences to S'pore. Well, the worst thing is I won't be able to go out and play badminton in M'sia :(:(..I can in s'pore though..hmmmmm;)

LazyBuddy

05-12-2003, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by Cheung
This is the point; the argument put forward for delay of WC have far reaching consequences. There is always potential for the next disease to pop up or another flare-up of SARS (though hopefully better containment). That is definately a possible scenario. So what happens? Ans: all major sports events should be cancelled indefinately because it only takes one person (other BFer's arguments, not mine).......

There's no such thing as NO risk...you could get meningitis from a person sitting next to you, BSE from eating your hamburger etc. I get the impression that BFer's are demanding no risk and definitive tests - both of which do not exist.

Just to show I am being quite fair, I do understand people's concerns. But if people start asking for the impossible - well, nothing would get acheived.

I never say about we should resume all events when there's NO risk. I know that's impossible. Not only about SARS, everything bad could never be limited to zero.

I think our argument is really a matter of "how serious u think the danger is". Clearly, many ppl think it's very serious, and others think "well, still fine with certain procedures". However, I believe as long as fairly amount of ppl think something is really dangerous, we should limited big gathering/events to a certain level. Forcing through, and taking chances will just put lives in danger, and the event itself will surely lose its "taste" for some point.

At this particular moment, when SARS is the center of everyone's topic, why force to put on a show and put ppl's lives in danger (at least, more dangerous than a lot of ppl can handle). Actually, if other sports events will be delayed due to the same reason at this time, I will support them, too.

I can understand everyone's standard could be very different. Some ppl think it could be a serious issue, while others not. However, a sports event should let everyone focus on teh game, not have to also pay attention whether anyone sitting next to me was coughing or not.

Let's say, we have WC on time. A lot of fans will really think twice before making the decision. Therefore, many ppl will lose their chances for this fantastic event, just because they have to worry about "who will sit next to me". This might sounds silly to ppl who don't fear about SARS very much. However, why we have to risk everyone's health and in potential to lose huge amount of athletes and fans (not attending) but not just wait for another several months???

There's another case I heard. A guy from TW possibly got SARS (before TW officially announce SARS, and SARS getting really serious) because his relative in HK was dying from SARS. To me, visit a dying relative is far more important than watch a game. However, still, many ppl think he should never do it. First, there's no help he bring to his relative, but got himself in danger of death. Second, this guy is a carrier too, and risk everyone else' lives.

Another example about "small risk". Weeks ago, 5 kids were dead (forgot about the cause). When they were in danger, one kid (14 yrs old) called 911 (emergency call). The sad thing was, the operator heard a soft kid's voice, and thought he was joking around, so, she did not pass on the message and hang up. Talking about %%%, I know there;s a lot of fault 911 calls (a lot of them by little kids fooling around), however, just to save policeman one trip, the operator just kinda killed 5 kids in one shot. Is that worth that? Well, to her, according to her working experience, maybe 99 out of 100 times, she's perfectly right. Only this 1 fault, 5 little kids just dead together, and lost their only chance. Do u think it's really worth it???

ronk

05-12-2003, 03:03 PM

The championship has already been cancelled and it is not possible to determine other possible outcomes. One can always ask the question, "what if a top player or some fans caught the SARS virus and died?" Since the championship has been cancelled, that question is moot, but it could have happened. Such an outcome will have large negative publicity for badminton. Based strictly on risk assessment, the cancellation was probably overly cautious.

Ron

Cheung

05-12-2003, 03:22 PM

There is something I am very interested in. And that is on what basis will IBF decide when to reschedule the event? They've already discounted the medical advice that BAofE sought....

Wizbit

05-12-2003, 08:05 PM

I may be misinformed, but is the Ping Pong championships going ahead? I believe some of the top players are from Asia...

Bbn

05-13-2003, 03:00 AM

Loh

05-13-2003, 04:26 AM

Originally posted by Cheung

I don't understand your logic with the IBF compared to the University. The University allows students in because the University knows more about the disease than the IBF!! The BAofE took the advice of health authorities - a highly responsible action. The IBF? We don't know if they consulted any other health authorities. We need the minutes of their meeting.

BTW, WHO is an advisory alert. It doesn't say you must not go to affected countries unless there was a very good reason. You are only advised not to go. There's no reverse policy. Companies who enforce a 10 day quarantine of their employees do so out of their own company policy. Not because the WHO advises so..... [/B]

Cheung

What I meant was that the University in question should not have barred Asian students from joining but should admit those deserving by conducting a thorough Sars examination. It can do this test and take other precautionary measures if need be as it can control the intake and admission process. Indeed, you are right in saying that the University should certainly know more about Sars than the IBF and that is why I think Asian students should not be deprived and possibly having to wait for another semester before they have a chance to gain entry. I briefly read the university has since relented and I am much relieved for the sake of our Asian students who hail from Sars-infected countries.

One has to understand the different role of the IBF whose main tasks are to develop the badminton game worldwide and to provide entertainment. Compared with an academic institution like the university, I think the IBF's responsibilty is less onerous in this case as by postponing the WC as it will not affect the livelihood of players and spectators alike. In fact, some of them may prefer to give the WC a miss rather than run the risk of being infected by Sars. I think the IBF must have consulted the authorities before arriving at its painful decision. One must also try to understand the circumstances under which they are compelled to come up with such a decision, which I'm sure is not something they love to do. The Sars outbreak came suddenly. Little is known about the virus. And fears abound worldwide. Meanwhile the WC deadline is drawing ever closer. It ruins their plans, causes a great deal of misunderstanding with sponsors, players, fans, suppliers, vendors, helpers, fellow badminton associations, etc. Then they are forced to fix another more appropriate date and renegotiate with the many parties once again. Who would want all these to happen if he can help it?

But when we are given the information and warnings that innocent lives can be taken away by Sars if things do not go according to plan, when people break the rules and try to circumvent the existing order, then we need to pause and decide whether it is worth the while sticking to the original plans. Should we change them till we are more sure about further developments? The death of just one life as a consequence of holding the WC as originally planned would have put the IBF in extremely bad light.

Yes, the WHO dishes out advice as a matter of good faith and it is entirely up to the individuals and countries to make their own decision. Unfortunately, many who do not heed perish as evidenced in countries like China and Taiwan in particular. Sars has changed attitudes, lifestlyes, perceptions, etc and even the meaning of democracy. If democracy means to some people that you can do anything you like, that you have a right to liberty and freedom, then people's perception has since changed after the advent of Sars. If you are a Sars victim, you just can't go about infecting others through your behaviour (like spitting, coughing, etc) and claim it as your "right". A Sars carrier cannot move about freely without infecting others and causing them miseries and possible death. This is akin to murder! Rather he should be quarantined and monitored closely!

I'm not saying that at the WC that Sars will make its appearance, but if there is a possibility that this can happen, then why take the risk? It has been reported that despite all the efforts and precautions by some well-intentioned countries, Sars still managed to seep through. If lives were claimed at the WC, then who is to take the blame? That is why I still support IBF's decision. It doesn't matter to me how the IBF was advised on its decision. We have experienced the deadly Sars in Singapore to remind us not to play with fire.

Loh

05-13-2003, 08:25 PM

Alas, it was reported in today's papers that Singapore's "ringfence strategy" could have been breached as there have been no new Sars cases for 15 days". with the appearance of a big new cluster of possible 30 Sars cases at the Institute of Mental Health in Hougang who are down with fever. 24 elderly patients, above 60 years, and 3 of the 6 affected nurses have been transferred to the Sars 'specialist' treatment centre at Tan Tock Seng Hospital. The remaining three nurses are quarantined at home. 1,600 staff members have to move temporarily into isolation accommodation in Woodlands and Jurong to allow for close monitoring of everyone.

The priority now is to stop the infection spreading to others. The Minister in charge has expressed grave concern and I think it is inevitable that some of these new cases may eventually be confirmed as Sars victims.

Now the reasons for these "new" cases are still being investigated into. But suffice it to say that despite all the efforts and precautions taken by the Singapore government the Sars situation here is still in a limbo and nothing is quite conclusive. The worse is that this new cases have to come about when we are on the verge of making a breakthrough as regards the incubation period and we thought we could celebrate the status of being Sars-free. Now we are almost back to square one in the sense that people's attitudes and psyche will again be adversely affected and the economic situation both at home and abroad will continue to languish.

We just can't throw caution to the wind. Hurray to the IBF for postponing the WC!

Cheung

05-13-2003, 10:05 PM

It is one such method of containment.

Rather than pass judgement on few details, I would await on further details on contact tracing rather than celebrate the postponement of the WC which does not take place in a hospital.

I really don't want to labour a point but apart from the the Asian delegation travelling to the tournament (I mean players/coaches etc), how many hospital workers/general public are going to travel to England to see the WC?...very few.
The badminton WC is not a big event in audience (sorry to say). We might think it's big (being badminton enthusiasts) but the reality is that the vast majority of Asian faces you will see attending are either local residents or students.

Lucky, our erstwhile admin chose to attend the Sudirman cup than the WC on the advice of BFer's!!:p I think he must have been one of only two persons to travel the furthest, just to see the tournament.

Loh

05-13-2003, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by Cheung
[students.

Lucky, our erstwhile admin chose to attend the Sudirman cup than the WC on the advice of BFer's!!:p I think he must have been one of only two persons to travel the furthest, just to see the tournament. [/B]

Yes, Kwun must be one of the happiest men around to be able to enjoy the hotly contested Sudirman Cup! He beat Sars to it!

Our Singapore Open, scheduled in mid-June, is in danger of being cancelled or postponed in view of the unrelenting Sars situation. I will miss the opportunity of witnessing some of the best players in action. It's been a year's wait and now it can come to naught!

kwun

05-14-2003, 01:03 AM

yes, i too realized that i was pretty lucky to have picked SC over WC for my trip.

heck, you never know, by March, SARS is supposed to have been pretty wide spread in parts of China, i have asked a few Chinese players for signatures, i may have come in contact with it already! ;)

Bbn

05-14-2003, 07:59 PM

Cheung

05-14-2003, 10:46 PM

Ever watch European soccer on TV? Some very expert exponents of propulsion of oral fluids are evident. And these are professionals!!!

Bbn

05-15-2003, 09:13 AM

I wonder if there is a correlation between cigarette puffing and

SARS.Definitely smoking weakens the lungs and make people more subsceptible to

SARS and TB.Smoking definitely is related to heart disease.

China has the highest no. of smokers in the world per capita.

Anyway I am not running anybody down, in Japan for eg.old people still

slurp their food to show appreciation, and sit on chairs with thier legs up

and pee everywhere, much to the disgust of younger people.In Msia it is

impossible to educate people not to smoke in air con places and not to spit

anywhere they like or allow thier children to pee in places other than the toilet.

Chow Sing Chi demonstrates the "hawking sound",

Kc_uk

05-15-2003, 11:16 AM

It was a shame that the World Champsionships were cancelled.

However since it is a world ranking event, the points gained help towards the rankings in the Olympics in 2004, so this event must be held.

Apparently the event will go ahead sometime in August, whether or not it is in Birmingham UK, is another question.

Not only that but the World championships would have gone ahead if not for just one vote. Sars was not a major issue, as the World Health Organisation gave the go ahead for the games, rather it was the IBF themselves who decide not to give clear. Shame really, politics again.

LazyBuddy

05-15-2003, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by Kc_uk

Not only that but the World championships would have gone ahead if not for just one vote. Sars was not a major issue, as the World Health Organisation gave the go ahead for the games, rather it was the IBF themselves who decide not to give clear. Shame really, politics again.

Errr... don't know how to express my feeling toward ur comments.

I agree, there should be some political issues involved (well, nothing these days can be setteled without touching politics anyway). However, "prevention" is really import in the "SARS" matter.

WHO can only make decison to "bann" certain region, AFTER SARS being a serious problem. Let's say Taiwan, 2 weeks ago, TW has 0 SARS, now, it becomes one of the most serious region in SARS spreading. It's like computer virus, ppl won't make the "virus scan" program, until certain type of virus already did sig. damage in computer network, etc.

My point is, a safe place today, could be the next "nightmare" region. With the potential of huge waves coming from Asia to attend WC, it will surely put a lot of ppl's lives in danger.

It's very hard to draw the line. Many ppl can easily argue my points, like "hey, chance is still small, what about if nothing happened???" Of course, but don't forget, a lot of things could not be decide just by the %%%. Chance is small, but the RESULT could be DEADLY. These days, ppl have much more chance to get regular flu than SARS. However, I don't think ppl really scare to death about regular flu. Why? Because most of the cases, just take some medicine, u will be fine. However, if anyone hit the "jackpot" in SARS, I will be very sorry...

Kc_uk

05-15-2003, 02:40 PM

Sorry i may have mislead you in what i said. What i meant was Sars was not the overall reason why the games were cancelled, some other reasons contributed them being polical ones.

I'm sure that the WHO would have taken full precautions in this matter to help prevent the spread of the virus.

I read recently that the UK has only 3 probable cases but only one reported case of Sars. The person who wasn't named has recovered due to the fact that it was discovered early.

But as some others mentioned on this thread, if the WC were cancelled due to Sars, then why not cancel all other forms of sports too?

raymond

05-16-2003, 01:36 AM

Originally posted by Cheung
good point. We don't know if a person is infectious or not before they have a raised body temperature. You can't identify them. Just like the situation with HIV infection. Many people with HIV walk around doing normal things. I can't see a difference.

HIV has been with us for many years. How it's transmitted is well understood.
although to this day we still have no cure, we know how to cope. Unless you
need blood transfusion (which should already have been screened by now), share
needles, have new *** partner(s), your risk is minimal. Again, can we proclaim we
know how SARS is spread?

Originally posted by Cheung
True. No test is 100% effective. Even patients who turn up to Emergency room get sent home and reattend later (for other illnesses too). This is a fact of life. At least temperature measurement and questionnaires are simple measures, easily performed, cheap, require only a small amount of training. Look at the cost:benefit ratio.
[/B]
It's one thing that a test is not 100% effective. It's another if the test is completely
ineffective. In between is a wide range. Sure, the methods (questionaires, and
temperature checks) are cheap alright. But IMHO they also have questionable
effectiveness. While I've no objection to this measure, I do question the wisdom
of relying on them though.

Originally posted by Cheung
I doubt any disease in the initial stages has such a test. For example, other viruses, at the inital stages of infection, Hep B, HIV, don't show up positive tests. This expectation is too high for the technology we have at the moment.
[/B]

Well put. You already said it's in the initial stage. So, why not have a bit more
patience? It's not life imprisonment, is it?

Originally posted by Cheung
You have to be pragmatic. Would you cut down all airplane flights, sports events because of the risk of terrorism? Cancel the Olympics please, somebody....
[/B]

I believed that's exactly what happened here in U.S. immediately after 9/11.
Airports were literally shut down, albeit shortly. That's, until counter-measures
were put in place. Furthermore, traffics were cut down naturally since people
automatically cancel their non-essential travel plans.

As for Olympics, well, everything has a price/priority. No kidding. Someone
might have made a decision for you how much your life is worth. It depends
on the SARS situation as we get closer to Olympics time. Everything has its
first time, I'm NOT rejecting the possibility of someone canceling Olympics altogether,
do you? If this does happen, I believe this would be its first time in history?

Originally posted by Cheung
Do you think the health care system is as advanced as in US? Consider also the baseline education level of the population. Some patients may not even understand the questions!!
[/B]

Hmm... You lost me here. Are you talking about the questions on those
screening questionaires?

Originally posted by Cheung
Anybody can be a terrorist threat.
[/B]

This is just as saying everyone would die some day. Apparently, the insurance
company has a slightly different idea using Actuarial Science.

Originally posted by Cheung
Raymond, sorry if I sound like I disagree with a lot of things.
[/B]

You don't need to apologize. As long as we don't resort to launching personal
attacks, and just stick with "things", okay? ;)

Originally posted by Cheung
For the WC, perhaps players arriving from affected countries are at risk. Therefore, the rationale of implementation of screening for ALL of the delegation of all countries (as I suggested earlier) during the tournament. (Possibly could pick up virus in transit). NOT quarantine. Can a person transmit the virus over a distance of 3 metres? No evidence of that either.
[/B]

But the idea of this screening is flawed... It admits the possibility of infection
among some individuals. By the time he is screened out (based on development
of symptoms), countless other may have be infected by him alone.

To play Devil's Advocate, even if we've definitive diagnostic test, as long as it's
not instantaneous, we'd have logistic nightmare. A person that gets a negative
test result may be infected after the test was conducted but before the test was
published. Hence he'd be free, by mistake.

Originally posted by Cheung
Forcefully quarantining people without evidence does more harm than good. Would you forcefully quarantine people from countries with a high rate of HIV and force them to undergo a mandatory blood test after the seroconversion period?
[/B]

Why do you keep coming back to compare with HIV? Can you please establish
the argument that this is an "apple to apple" comparison?

Originally posted by Cheung
Now, if you said this two months ago, my stance would have been different. I might have said for the WC not to go ahead, but now we have more information.
[/B]

What information?

Originally posted by Cheung
If I am not mistaken, smallpox is the only virus that has ever been succesfully eradicated by man....coronavirus is not going to be the next one. [/B]

But SARS doesn't have to be eradicated. Furthermore, is it too early to surrender?
Common cold is pretty much harmless. That may explain practically no resources
are put into research a cure for it. Given high enough a profile and financial rewards,
you could see talent emerges. Is there any intrinsic reason why we can't deal
with coronavirus? Maybe because of SARS, we end up having vaccine for Common
Cold also :rolleyes:

Of course, act/pretend as if nothing has happened is one way to cope. But it seems
too early to fall hopeless.

raymond

05-16-2003, 01:42 AM

Originally posted by Cheung

BTW, WHO is an advisory alert. It doesn't say you must not go to affected countries unless there was a very good reason. You are only advised not to go. There's no reverse policy. Companies who enforce a 10 day quarantine of their employees do so out of their own company policy. Not because the WHO advises so.....

Ever wonder why companies choose to do so, despite the fact that is gonna
cost them opportunities, hard $$, delivery schedule? Why can't they implement
daily health check, and send people out as usual, or invite the Chinese/Asian
customers over instead?

raymond

05-16-2003, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by Cheung
Since we are only referring to the WC here, we should apply our checking procedures in context of the world championships.

Well, I bet there are still flights coming in and out of China to Europe. Presumably, if LB, Raymond, Bbn etc are correct, then we should see more severe transmission in another countries. But it's not happening! Put in context of the WC, then the WC doesn't seem to be the high risk that people think it is at.

We're talking about chances here. As traveling frequency increases, the chance
SARS is spread would simply increase. If it hasn't happened yet, perhaps it's just
a question of time. Ever thought about the logic of smokers. Some of these people
may argue "I've been smoking for some 30 years... or someone has been smoking
for his whole life, and yet he lived to 80 something... So smoking can't be dangerous"
What would you be thinking when someone gives you such an argument?

Originally posted by Cheung
Please do not get confused with the issue of country screening its ports and screening at the world championships. Sure LB is correct...so what are you going to do, LB? Best thing to do is to lock yourself up inside and never go outside!
[/B]
You and Colin have repeatedly made such comments. I believe perhaps your
bravery has been misplaced. To be sensible and not attend major gatherings that
drastically increase your chance of infection at this early stage when not much
help can offer you, I think it's just wise and be responsible (to yourself, your loved
ones, and to other people). I'd call it a period of observation/caution. It doesn't
mean we can't go anywhere at all. You perhaps had made a sweeping
generalization here - "To not show up in SOME places is equivalent to not show up
in ALL places".

Does this sound right?

Originally posted by Cheung
I suspect a few people on this discussion are engineering disciplines. My impression is that, engineers like hard facts. Not probability. Unfortunately, no test in medicine is so hard fact. There are always errors when dealing with biological systems. That's why we have to use statistics. Even 'gold standard' tests have errors.
[/B]

You got the first part right. Yes, I'm an engineer (EE) by training and by profession.
But your 2nd part is off base. Engineers like hard facts. But they also like
probability. The latter is a technique commonly used in quality control, quantitative
analysis, and design works. The wireless network your cell phone calls go through,
the data network you hooked up to, the telephone switch you connected to, all
have a lot to do with Statistics that we engineers need to use/touch/consider.

So, Cheung, perhaps I use/think/know more Statistics than you realize ;)

Originally posted by Cheung
People on this board demand complete answers that fit nicely in to a package. Sorry to tell you that many times in medicine, you don't get that nice package. Medicine and biological systems are not nice things you can manufacture, build, test to tight tolerances. This is reality - all I suggest for the WC are measures to reduce risk(and have psychological benefit). [/B]

After hearing your verdicts, as well as that of Colin, I'm becoming somewhat
concern about the Health Care system in H.K., as well as my own well being here,
now that I can't escape dealing with some medical doctors in my life ;-)

raymond

05-16-2003, 02:11 AM

Originally posted by Cheung
That just tells me you haven't got enough information. You want more information on what? effectiveness? the proof exists already!! Why would WHO lift their travel advisory alert on some areas?;)

I suspect WHO is under a lot of political pressure not to be the "bad" guy.
Just look at the reaction from Canada, when WHO gave travel advisory alert
on Toronto.

The travel advisory alert is perhaps more like stock analysts recommendation.
Ever wonder how you can make any $$ with their recommendations? They tell
you to "strong" buy when the stock has already peaked, and "hold" when the
stock is heading to bottom. ;)

raymond

05-16-2003, 02:42 AM

What the "Experts" say:
Psycologists say people tend to hear what they want to hear. The following
are what I hear. What about you?

"In a case where you don't understand the true risks, you must take
maximum measures," David Heymann, head of WHO's communicable
diseases unit said.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20030515/hl_afp/health_sars_who_blood_030515144911

"We can only sleep well when the whole world is rid of this virus or more
likely a vaccine is available. That will take years," said Khaw Boon Wan, a
[Singapore] cabinet minister who is the head of a task force to tackle SARS.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030515/hl_nm/sars_hospital_dc_1

''Most of the other travel health risks we deal with are well known,'' notes
Bradley Connor, incoming president of the travel medical society. ''Yes,
there are changes and resistance to medications, but these are things
we're able to keep up with and have a pretty good handle on. Emerging
infectious diseases, by definition, catch us by surprise. ''It's better to err
on the side of caution. If we're overreacting and someone cancels a trip
because of it, that's bad. But it's worse if we didn't act and put someone in harm's
way of contracting a serious and potentially lethal disease.''
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/usatoday/20030509/en_usatoday/5144657

"...a majority of the IBF Executive Board felt on balance that a postponement
was the responsible decision. "
http://www.worldbadminton.net/getstory.asp?id=835

Points to Ponder
Think about the following:

Number one on the list
So far, no one tell me if IBF can enforce the health check at all points of departure
or even point of entry.

Done by a doctor, can you believe that ;)
BEIJING - A doctor with the SARS (news - web sites) virus has been arrested
for allegedly violating a quarantine and starting an outbreak that infected
more than 100 people in a northern Chinese city, police said Thursday, in
the first known arrest for spreading the flu-like disease.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030515/ap_on_he_me/sars_doctor_arrested_2

WASHINGTON - Keeping SARS (news - web sites) from spreading in the
United States is straining the already besieged public health system, and
it's partly a matter of luck that this newest killer so far has been contained here.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20030513/ap_on_he_me/sars_public_health_6

Some border Shutting is already happening.
MOSCOW (AFP) - Russia diagnosed its first case of SARS (news - web sites)
and took emergency steps to prevent the killer epidemic spilling over from
China, with a threatened ban on flights and restrictions across the vast land
border.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20030508/hl_afp/health_sars_russia_030508165600

What Children Do
Children always like to do this trick - if there's something they want,
they'd ask their mom(dad) first. If they don't get what they want, they'd ask
their dad(mom).
If WC is the only one that is NOT canceled while ALL other sports are
canceled, would people ask why WC is NOT canceled? Most likely, they would
still maintain all these other sport organizations had made a terrible mistake.

Role of WHO
It seems WHO may be under a lot of political pressure to give travel advisory
alert on any city/countries - look at recent objection from Canada. What is
WHO actually afraid of? Information may not be available to all countires -
No data or info. to Taiwan as it's not part of U.N.
"If we could have support from the WHO, we would not lose so many lives
and we wouldn't need to quarantine so many people."
Taiwan was ousted from the United Nations (news - web sites) in 1971 and was
replaced by China.

Diagnostic Test:
Developed by Artus in collaboration with the Bernhard-Nocht-Institute for
Tropical Medicine (BNI) in Hamburg, Germany, the test was introduced by Artus
in April to countries in Asia and Europe and has been provided to laboratories
under the direction of the World Health Organization (WHO) and other major
clinical sites conducting studies on the SARS virus. Initial results of different
sample types (sputum, swabs, stool and tissue) from these WHO laboratories are
promising.
The test is based on a highly sensitive technology known as polymerase chain
reaction (PCR), which directly detects the virus in patient samples, and
produces results in two hours.
see http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030515/cgth034_1.html

Cheung

05-16-2003, 10:40 AM

So, I take it you think we should stop sporting events for the years it will take to find a cure for Coronavirus infection.

Tell me a country in which the health system it doesn't claim itself bursting at the seams;)

If really travel is so bad, why aren't all passenger flights and international flights stopped now. Includes those between nonSARS countries as somebody (not me) has pointed out that there is even a risk of people transmitting infection in transit.

If WHO is advising maximal measures, why isn't the majority of the population wearing a N95/N100 mask going out. In particular, are you going out at all? Have you avoided meeting people and crowded places because of atypical pneumonia (under WHO advice)?

It's not the job of the IBF to enforce screening at borders. That's a job for immigration. I recommended daily checks for all the delegation for the WC should it have proceeded. Do you think that is an irresponsible action?

Countries affected by SARS are reacting hard. Infectious diseases come and go. It wouldn't be surprising if Coronavirus made another comeback within the year. How long are you going to wait for?

Your Chinese doctor should have known better. Bad apples will tend to make headlines. It was a doctor form China who was the index case for HK. Professional badminton players don't work in hospitals..as far as I know.:D

What Moscow did is what they did for their country. Other countries haven't done it.

Not really sure on your point about children.....

You have to ask the WHO about their political pressures. I am in no way able to give a comment on that.

The PCR test is also known to show up negative when a person has the virus. (false negative). Initial results are not definitive tests. Here's what the WHO site says:
Principally, existing PCR tests are very specific but lack sensitivity. This means that negative tests cannot rule out the presence of the SARS virus in patients. Furthermore, contamination of samples in laboratories in the absence of laboratory quality control can lead to false positive results.

The point on increased frequency with travel is correct. That is the point of screening. Now if you not satisfied with the measures in place already by the immigration departments, why have you not expressed disatisfaction at those systems as travel is still occurring.

After hearing your verdicts, as well as that of Colin, I'm becoming somewhat
concern about the Health Care system in H.K., as well as my own well being here,
now that I can't escape dealing with some medical doctors in my life ;-) There's an implicit meaning in your statement and can be viewed as a personal attackl:mad: I strongly invite you to retract that statement. You have your choice in which doctors you want to see and don't want to see. One can consider that different doctors have differing opinions, even in the US.

Well put. You already said it's in the initial stage. So, why not have a bit more patience? It's not life imprisonment, is it? you misinterpreted the statement. Not the inital stages of disease pattern and spread. The inital stages of infection of an individual.

Private companies can do those other checks as well.

Mentioning the risk of terrorism, sorry for not being clear, that was referring to the baseline risk of terrorism. Even when on 'alert' for possible activities, are flights being stopped? I don't want to go further with this part because then we start deviating too far away.

I do believe every person will die someday in their lifetime!;) But your genetic material can survive..........

But the idea of this screening is flawed... It admits the possibility of infection
among some individuals. By the time he is screened out (based on development
of symptoms), countless other may have be infected by him alone. Well, no screening test is perfect. I take your point. But if it really is so ineffectual why bother setting this up as some of our Asian countries have done. And the cross country transmission is very low (now the disease entity has been discovered and we know more about it)

I get the impression from BFer's that coronavirus has to be eradicated totally. Low as possible risk, right? Apologies if I misinterpreted that. There was a centre in UK that had a lot of resources put in to look for a cure for the common cold. Don't know what happened to the project but there doesn't seem to be a cure now. Granted that certain drugs are available now that weren't available then....

Why do you keep coming back to compare with HIV? Can you please establish the argument that this is an "apple to apple" comparison? HIV is a RNA virus...so is coronavirus, as is Hep A, Hep C, Hep G. Apologies, Hep B is a DNA virus.

The extra information I was referring to is the information we have gained over the last couple of months.

Finally, I like to add I never stated or acted like everything was hunkydory with SARS and that there was/is no danger. I have always maintained the WC could have gone ahead with proper screening and checks on delegates. WHO and British health authorities did not say the WC had to be cancelled. That was a decision made by the IBF. Going by the opinion of WHO and British health authorities, my view seems to be consistent with theirs...

(sorry about the disjointed answers - I just couldn't face cutting out and pasting everything so just tried to do it with the points which are less clear)

FYI, something on mass gatherings, but a bit late.
http://www.who.int/csr/sars/guidelines/gatherings/en/ (http://www.who.int/csr/sars/guidelines/gatherings/en/)

:(

cooler

05-16-2003, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by raymond
I suspect WHO is under a lot of political pressure not to be the "bad" guy.
Just look at the reaction from Canada, when WHO gave travel advisory alert
on Toronto.

The travel advisory alert is perhaps more like stock analysts recommendation.
Ever wonder how you can make any $$ with their recommendations? They tell
you to "strong" buy when the stock has already peaked, and "hold" when the
stock is heading to bottom. ;)

Don't get me steam up about anal-ysts recommendation.:mad:

Cheung

05-16-2003, 11:17 AM

just one last point. there are always going to be differing views and stances on this. This is only natural considering that human beings have different tolerances according to factors like education, upbringing, personal values etc.

I think we've probably gone through the main issues involved. The fact is the IBF took a very conservative stance. A cavalier approach would be one with no precautions. There is also a middle ground. There are always pros and cons of each side. Many times, we have to choose practicality. Sometimes, practicalities are sacrificed. Other times, main objectives in projects are reached with many different solutions.

Here we see an example, different solutions to the same problem. No-one is right or wrong. Both can be correct...;)

Thanks. This will probably be my last statement on this thread;)

colin

05-16-2003, 02:45 PM

I, too, would like to post a final word on this thread. Cheung and I have both personally treated SARS patients in HK and we are both well aware of the risks and serious consequences of a SARS infection.

As a matter of fact, I am sad to have recently lost a medical colleague at my previous hospital to SARS, and now have just heard that another ICU colleague has been diagnosed with SARS, too.....

So believe me when I say I am fully aware of the risks involved. All I am saying is that the general public should be aware that the risk of getting SARS is not high unless you are a health care worker or have cared for someone with SARS. Fortunately the virus needs close contact for transmission, otherwise the whole of HK (or for that matter all of China) would have come down with it by now.

All I am pleading for is for common sense and that we do not allow irrational fear to prevail. Fear and paranoid will lead discrimination against innocent people and does not help in the battle against SARS. And this will be a long war, as SARS will be with us for a long long time, just like HIV. We all have to live with the fact that SARS is not going away soon and will have to adapt our lifestyles to cope accordingly. So does this mean that the WC must be indefinitely postponed until the SARS virus is completely eliminated and there is therefore zero risk of transmission? Of course not, the rational response is that we have to deal with it by instituting adequate screening procedures as recommended by the health authorities and allowing the event to proceed. You cannot have your cake and eat it, too, by allowing air travel and business contacts between SARS affected regions and the UK, for example, and then not allowing the WC to proceed in Birmingham. This decision doesn’t make sense to me at all.

Anyway, I am glad that we all have had an opportunity to air our views in this forum. Funny thing is I came here to check out the views of fellow badminton fanatics on purely badminton issues, like getting tips on my lousy backhand, and never expected to post anything on SARS at all....

In the end, we can agree to disagree, but I hope no one takes anything I have posted personally.

raymond

05-17-2003, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by Cheung
So, I take it you think we should stop sporting events for the years it will take to find a cure for Coronavirus infection.

No, that's not what I propose. The outbreak just happened "yesterday". I'm
just saying we should take a breather before we rush into anything longer term.
But I don't think we should pretend nothing has happened either.

Originally posted by Cheung
If really travel is so bad, why aren't all passenger flights and international flights stopped now. Includes those between nonSARS countries as somebody (not me) has pointed out that there is even a risk of people transmitting infection in transit.
[/B]

I think we're trying to control the risk, which may or may not materialize. The
topic of this thread is about badminton and IBF's decision. In all due respects,
as much as I like/enjoy the sports, it doesn't pass the risk/reward analysis; of
course, it's a very personal subjective one. No one (I believe) in this forum could
have any influences, directly or otherwise, on travel policy of any government.

Shutting down borders/flights is already happening in some countries (see Russia).
Others used more liberated approach. In order to travel to another country,
I suppose one usually needs a visa. Perhaps the visa approval process has
changed, such that less people can get a tourist visa these days. Do we have
any visibility in this arena in visa control?

Originally posted by Cheung
If WHO is advising maximal measures, why isn't the majority of the population wearing a N95/N100 mask going out.
[/B]

If I were in H.K., Taiwan, China etc, I probably would. And I think a lot of people
(as shown on TV) in those localities are already wearing ones.

Originally posted by Cheung
In particular, are you going out at all? Have you avoided meeting people and crowded places because of atypical pneumonia (under WHO advice)?
[/B]

Yes, I'm still going out. And yes, I along with my family, have already avoided
going to certain places, especially crowded places.

Originally posted by Cheung
It's not the job of the IBF to enforce screening at borders. That's a job for immigration.
[/B]

That's precisely my point. IBF can't make decision based on things they can't
control. And don't forget that, as time goes by, this SARS situation may get
better or worse, but IBF had to make a decision something like 2-3 weeks ago,
when the whole SARS thing is at this "peak". And I believe it's a postponement
as opposed to cancellation - IBF is taking a "Wait and See" attitude.

Originally posted by Cheung
I recommended daily checks for all the delegation for the WC should it have proceeded. Do you think that is an irresponsible action?
[/B]

Personally, I'd not take those checks too seriously, that is until I learn more
about their adequacy.

Originally posted by Cheung
Countries affected by SARS are reacting hard. Infectious diseases come and go. It wouldn't be surprising if Coronavirus made another comeback within the year. How long are you going to wait for?
[/B]

Personally, waiting for another year or two is just fine with me. Researchers
are working on this day and night already. We should give them some time to
bear fruits.

Originally posted by Cheung
Your Chinese doctor should have known better. Bad apples will tend to make headlines. It was a doctor form China who was the index case for HK. Professional badminton players don't work in hospitals..as far as I know.:D
[/B]

Your focus is primarily on the hospitals, which is understandable, as they're related
to your profession. But what happens to those patients before they're checked
into the hospitals? Or checked out of the hosiptals for that matter (given the
virus could be in their bodies for up to a month)?

Originally posted by Cheung
What Moscow did is what they did for their country. Other countries haven't done it.
[/B]

Not yet.

Originally posted by Cheung
Not really sure on your point about children.....
[/B]

I was trying to make a point that people (probably myself included) tend to
look for "evidence" that support their own views, and ignore everything else.
Just like the kids - all they need is one of the parents supporting their wants.
This comment is directed at the comment about different decisions made by
different sporting organizations, and people are taking their own picks to support
their arguments.

Majority doesn't always translate to "Right" decision. We need to assess
situations on their own merits. Just because everybody is wrong in something
doesn't make that something right - although I won't go so far to say all these
sport organizations had made terrible mistakes, as we had already argued this
point before.

Originally posted by Cheung
The PCR test is also known to show up negative when a person has the virus. (false negative). Initial results are not definitive tests. Here's what the WHO site says:
[/B]

I'd accept imperfect solutions :). I'm more concerns about the unnecessary
loss of lives as well as economic fallouts. However, between 0-100%, other than
100% everything else is imperfect. When evaluating any measures, is it closer
to 0% or to 100%?

Originally posted by Cheung
The point on increased frequency with travel is correct. That is the point of screening. Now if you not satisfied with the measures in place already by the immigration departments, why have you not expressed disatisfaction at those systems as travel is still occurring.
[/B]

We've already drifted off-topic ;). Beside, if my bringing up all
the "imperfections" in the travel inspection policy is not enough a statement about
my dissatisfaction at those systems, I don't know what else I can say...

Originally posted by Cheung
There's an implicit meaning in your statement and can be viewed as a personal attackl:mad: I strongly invite you to retract that statement.
[/B]

Yes, I'd pick up your invitation and retract that statement. I do hope that you
and Colin don't bring up again the sweeping statement that says "people taking a
cautious stance should hide in toilets in fear, etc"...

Originally posted by Cheung
Mentioning the risk of terrorism, sorry for not being clear, that was referring to the baseline risk of terrorism. Even when on 'alert' for possible activities, are flights being stopped? I don't want to go further with this part because then we start deviating too far away.
[/B]

The difference, again, is in the efficacy of the counter-measures. I believe today
we have a better system to fight terrorists than to fight SARS (at least as far
as airport safety is concerned).

Along this line, I'd like to make one parting comment - just because something bad
hasn't happened this far doesn't mean it won't happen in the near future, if we
know/assert that there's a flaw somewhere in the system. Prior to 911, we all
know the airport security is flawed, yet nothing was done, until it's too late. Now
that traveling continues with what I view as defective screening process, I'd cross
my fingers and see how things work out....

Originally posted by Cheung
I do believe every person will die someday in their lifetime!;) But your genetic material can survive..........
[/B]

Interesting. I never thought much about my genetic material... :p

Originally posted by Cheung
Well, no screening test is perfect. I take your point. But if it really is so ineffectual why bother setting this up as some of our Asian countries have done. And the cross country transmission is very low (now the disease entity has been discovered and we know more about it)
[/B]

Desperate situations often times drive people to adopt desperate measures,
even though those measures may not be effective at all. But I do hope I'm
wrong here. We'd have a better idea over time.

Originally posted by Cheung
I get the impression from BFer's that coronavirus has to be eradicated totally. Low as possible risk, right?
[/B]

Life goes on... Regardless of the outcome of this fight against SARS, all decisions
in the future should be risk/reward driven, I believe.

Originally posted by Cheung
WHO and British health authorities did not say the WC had to be cancelled. That was a decision made by the IBF. Going by the opinion of WHO and British health authorities, my view seems to be consistent with theirs...
[/B]

One can view IBF's decision in a more positive light - it's called initiative,
something welcome in corporate environment :). On another note, what if
WHO and British Heath authorities did advise stopping the events? The focal
point of all these arguments would probably shift one level, but we probably
would still go throught similar points. This goes back to my "Childern" analogy.
Silence of WHO and British Health authorities are treated as a blessing.

Beside, I see at IBF website that there're countries withdrawing from WC.
I suppose they won't be China, or Indonesia or any of the top players (maybe
except Danmark). We don't really know how many withdrawals. So here remains
the question of participation too.

Anyhow, I think you're right. We spent enough time talking about this issue that
we as BF'er can't do nothing to change. I do appreciate that everyone participated
remained civilized :).

Now back to other threads....