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Chen Jin and the 2012 Olympics, the saga continues.

Discussion in 'Olympics LONDON 2012' started by AlanY, Jan 31, 2012.

  1. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    This is the qualification table with 7 t’ments to go; PG is 3250 points ahead of CJ;

    [TABLE="class: grid"]
    [TR]
    [TD][TABLE="class: grid"]
    [TR]
    [TD]4[/TD]
    [TD]DEN[/TD]
    [TD]Peter Hoeg Gade[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]71103[/TD]
    [TD]13[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]5[/TD]
    [TD]CHN[/TD]
    [TD]Chen Jin[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]67850[/TD]
    [TD]14[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    And we have the following t’ments left before the end of the qualification in May;
    [TABLE="class: grid"]
    [TR]
    [TD][TABLE="class: grid"]
    [TR]
    [TD]14-19 Feb
    [/TD]
    [TD]Thomas & Uber Cup Preliminery Round - Asia[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]28 Feb-04 Mar[/TD]
    [TD]YONEX German Open Badminton Championships[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]06-11 Mar[/TD]
    [TD]YONEX All England Badminton Championships[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]13-18 Mar[/TD]
    [TD]Swiss Open[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]03-08 Apr[/TD]
    [TD]YONEX Australian Open[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]17-21 Apr[/TD]
    [TD]European Championships[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]17-22 Apr[/TD]
    [TD]Badminton Asia Championships[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]24-29 Apr[/TD]
    [TD]India Open[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    My estimate is CJ will score around 7350 points for the TUP and will be 950 points behind PG by the end of Feb. By then both players’ 10[SUP]th[/SUP] highest points is 6050 thus needed to win the GPG to gain points. Let assume they either wouldn’t bother or couldn’t achieved that. So, it’s all down to the AE as can CJ finish ahead of PF?

    At the AE if CJ manage to finish ahead of PG by 1 round, say CJ at SF and PG at QF, the table will look like this, now CJ is 700 points ahead of PG;
    [TABLE="class: grid"]
    [TR]
    [TD][TABLE]
    [TR="class: grid"]
    [TD="align: right"]4
    [/TD]
    [TD]CHN[/TD]
    [TD]Chen Jin[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]72820[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: grid"]
    [TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
    [TD]DEN[/TD]
    [TD]Peter Hoeg Gade[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]72113[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    Let’s skip the 2 GPGs for now and concentrate on the t’ments after.

    PG has the European Champ and India SS left. Let’s say PG to win the European Champ and get the 7000 points. And I expect PG will skip the India SS as it’s only a weekend between the 2 t’ments, not good for the 35 years old. PG by then will overtake CJ by 250 points. Will CJ go for the Asia Championships and the India SS? I think he will and he should as the Asia Championships will be played in China and India is not that far away.

    Table incl PG's 7000 points;
    [TABLE="class: grid"]
    [TR]
    [TD][TABLE="width: 481"]
    [TR="class: grid"]
    [TD]4[/TD]
    [TD]DEN[/TD]
    [TD]Peter Hoeg Gade[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]73063[/TD]
    [TD]15[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: grid"]
    [TD]5[/TD]
    [TD]CHN[/TD]
    [TD]Chen Jin[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]72820[/TD]
    [TD]16[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    A win at the Asia Championships or a SF place at the SF will see CJ qualify for London.
    And the final table;
    [TABLE="class: grid"]
    [TR]
    [TD][TABLE]
    [TR="class: grid"]
    [TD]4
    [/TD]
    [TD]CHN[/TD]
    [TD]Chen Jin[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]73190[/TD]
    [TD]17[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: grid"]
    [TD]5[/TD]
    [TD]DEN[/TD]
    [TD]Peter Hoeg Gade[/TD]
    [TD="align: right"]73063[/TD]
    [TD]15[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    So, I believe the key for CJ’s qualification is the AE in March. PG’s form dropped slightly toward the end of last year but after a couple of month’s R&R with Birmingham only a couple of hours away from home and the ever enthusiastic Danish supporters at AE, it’s not going to be easy for CJ to finish ahead of him.

    If CJ can’t go further than PG and finish at the same stage as PG at the AE, he needs to win either Swiss or Australian GPG and finish as winner or runners up at India.

    The ideal draw for CJ at the AE is for him in the same quarter as PG and fights it out and the worst is in LCW’s quarter and lost.
     
    #1 AlanY, Jan 31, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2012
  2. superjyfan

    superjyfan Regular Member

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    Great analysis. Although I think there is a good chance that at least one of them will participate in German Open. There seems to be a trend in the past - even though the prestigious All England just follows, some countries like China still send some of their players to play the German Open.
     
  3. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    German GPG, AE and Swiss GPG are one after the other in 3 weeks. It's no way that PG and CJ will play all 3. It's interesting to see how will it pan out. will they try to avoid each other or to fight it out head on? a runners up at GPG is not much good to either of them.
     
  4. madbad

    madbad Regular Member

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    Is PG not involved in the Euro section of TC qualifying?
     
  5. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    he already got 7000+ for the SC last year, only 1 team t'ment counted for 1 year
     
  6. madbad

    madbad Regular Member

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    Thanks for clarifying. You are extremely detail-oriented!
     
  7. Jonc108

    Jonc108 Regular Member

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    Great analysis fr Alan!I think the key for CJ to get more points rests on his luck in the draw, as Alan mentioned. So see whether luck is on his side....
     
  8. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    After the TC prelim Chen Jin has 70118 pts with less than 1000 pts behind P Gade at No 4. At the German Open next week if CJ justifies his No 2 seeding he will be a mere 75 pts behind, or if he wins the title outright he will be almost 1000 pts ahead.

    Apparently, he is still nursing his foot injuries lets wait and see how he copes with it for the next few weeks.

    Interestingly, after the UC prelim both the 2 Chinese girls Li Xuerui and Jiang Yanjiao are within reach of Nehwal at No 4. Again, after the 3 tournaments in Europe I can see one or even both will move up above SN. Poor Li YongBo, what to do!

    Unfortunately, not much improvement for INA’s MD Olympics Champion as all their 3 pairs were played and earned similar points.

    The partial list is in;

    https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B1h-Y2fdTl08YmZlN2M3YzQtNjlmMC00MzhjLTg5MTAtZWVmZWRmZTAwMWJh
     
    #8 AlanY, Feb 21, 2012
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2012
  9. jasonmarc

    jasonmarc Regular Member

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    It said....'No Preview available' !! Oh....have to download...!! TQ :D
     
  10. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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  11. limsy

    limsy Regular Member

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    some said chen jin is the 4th best of the world
    why he cant qualify for og 2012
    but please
    check his result after he won the wc 2010
    4th best of the world?
    really?
     
  12. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    [TABLE="class: ruler"]
    [TR]
    [TD="align: right"][TABLE]
    [TR="bgcolor: transparent"]
    [TD="align: right"]Wing Ki WONG [13][/TD]
    [TD][​IMG][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]
    [TD="align: center"]-[/TD]
    [TD][TABLE]
    [TR="bgcolor: transparent"]
    [TD][​IMG][/TD]
    [TD]Jin CHEN [2][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]
    [TD]21-9 21-17[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]


    Oops, looks like Chen Jin has blown it, or has he?


    Recently I’ve a few correspondences with a BWF umpire and his opinion shed some light on the OLY singles draws. Let’s say we have;


    1 - LCW

    2 - LD

    3 - CL, and

    4 - A.N. Other.


    So for the draw we will have LCW at top and LD at bottom. If PG is at No 4 then CL will be opposite of LD at LCW’s halve, i.e. LCW needs to beat both LD and CL to win. If CJ is at No 4, LCW and LD will still be the same but have to draw lot between CL and CJ to decide which halves they will be in, i.e. a 50/50 chance for LCW to meet CJ at SF (the weakest of the 3 Chinese on paper).


    I’m quite sure this is what BWF/OLY intended for the draws to work but just can’t find it in the wording of the rules.


    If this is how the draws work it’s better for CJ not to qualify thus ensure a tougher path for LCW.
     
  13. jasonmarc

    jasonmarc Regular Member

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    So Chn have decided not to send CJ instead........??
     
  14. TimothyHsu

    TimothyHsu Regular Member

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    I dont think they can send him since he isn't in the top 4 in rankings. You can only send top 2 players unless they're in the top 4. Or something like that. Chen Jin lost his chance to get into 4th place when he lost in the 3rd round to the player from Hong kong 21-17 and 21-9.
     
  15. Miqilin7

    Miqilin7 Regular Member

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    It's not over for him and China yet. He lost in the third round of a Grand Prix Gold event that carries not so much points compared to the Premier and SS events in the qualifying period.

    Before the deadline, he has All England, Swiss, Australia Open and India Open left for him to enter. As long as he stays consistent to reach every quarterfinal or better semifinal round of these remaining tournament, he stands a good chance to overtake Peter Gade by a whisker. As it stands, we will see a lot of walkovers in the coming All England to see Chen Jin through to the Semifinal at least. Lin Dan and Chen Long to be the bad guys once again taking the hard criticism from media. They have no choice. If Chen Jin fumbles again in the early rounds, I guess he should give up playing in the Olympics.

    Peter Gade is ridiculously consistent being able to finish as semifinalist in each tournament while he screwed up a couple of times when there's an opportunity to close the gap. I still wonder if he is still having this injury sustained in KL, that might have explained so much why he underperformed against Leverdez and Wong WingKi
     
  16. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    Interestingly enough after PG's early exit at the AE, early as in first round and also at 2am n the morning. Chen Jin only need to beat taufik in the second round to overtake PG as no 4
     
  17. fauci

    fauci Regular Member

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    LCW will be the person who benefits most if CJ is qualified
     
  18. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

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    .
    So... It looks like LCW will not reap the benefit (as at today). :p:p:p
    .
     
  19. limsy

    limsy Regular Member

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    and then he screw up yet again
    the '4th best of the world'
     
  20. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

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    It looks like Chen Jin will stay as 5th best.

    However, Chen Jin still has more tournaments left to play, before the closure of the OG ranking points.
    .
     

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