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LD vs. LCW (unforced errors)

Discussion in 'German Open / All England / Swiss Open 2008' started by ye333, Apr 2, 2008.

  1. ye333

    ye333 Regular Member

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    Just watched Swiss Final again. The statistical result is interesting.

    Unforced errors are defined as errors made when the player is in good balance and has enough time.

    G1: 13:21.
    LCW: 11--12 unforced errors at 0:0 (? -- hard to say unforced or not) ,0:1,0:2,1:5,1:7,1:8,2:10,3:11,6:13,7:16,7:17,9:18;
    LD: 4 unforced errors at 6:16, 8:18,9:19,10:19.

    G2: 18:21.
    LCW: 8--10 unforced errors at
    1:3, 10:6, 10:8, 10:9, 10:10(?), 11:13, 13:14, 13:15, 17:18(?), 18:20.
    LD: 8 unforced errors at
    1:4, 3:5, 8:6, 10:12, 12:14, 14:16, 15:16, 16:16.

    Conclusion: LD is mentally stronger, but towards the end of every game he will be a bit nervous.
     
  2. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    base on your so call statistical trend analysis, LD will lose the 3rd set
    and will lose badly on the 4th set, and lcw will totally own LD on the 5th set LOL

    so in conclusion, cooler can beat LD on the 17th set if xxf let LD play with cooler all day long. LOL
     
    #2 cooler, Apr 2, 2008
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2008
  3. madbad

    madbad Regular Member

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    Aha, but we haven't gone through YOUR unforced error chart yet. Your pattern may be worse than LD's :D:D, meaning XXF won't actually have to let LD deal with you that long ;);):D:D
     
  4. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    u r not looking at this logically;):p
    will elaborate when i get home.
     
  5. bananakid

    bananakid Regular Member

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    Have you also invested the time to look at other players' unforced errors in each match as well? :rolleyes: Someone can probably count all the unforced errors that Wacha made against LCW in the Swiss semi, and say that LCW didn't really won the match by being technically better, but mentally stronger than Wacha...

    When I play against a better player(than myself), I make a lot of forced and unforced errors, too... but do I go tell him that I lost to him because he is mentally stronger than I am? Hell... No...:rolleyes:
     
  6. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

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    Statistical results do not always tell the whole story about a match

    .
    Even though "unforced errors" are defined as errors made when the player is in good balance and has enough time, we often find players trying to play "riskier shots", like trying to smash closer to the sidelines, or trying to play tighter net-play, etc, etc......

    Therefore, statistical results do not always tell the whole story about a match. :p:p:p
    .
     
  7. Wong8Egg

    Wong8Egg Regular Member

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    Wacha FTW!!!!! :D
     
  8. ye333

    ye333 Regular Member

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    That's actually my point. If one player is in good balance and has enough time, yet choose to play risky shots which most of the time lead to him/her losing the point, he should change his shot-choice in the future.

    My interpretion is that LCW wanted to win too much and chose wrong shots in many cases. And this is the reason why LD won so comfortably. Just look at my statistics, LD made his first unforced error when he has almost won the first game. That's a sign of confidence and maturity.

     
  9. ye333

    ye333 Regular Member

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    First, if you started to make unforced errors from the very first point, that shows you are nervous, you are focusing on "winning the match" instead of "playing your best", in other words immature or mentally weak.

    Second, mental strength is the result of maturity and confidence, and indeed can affect much the game. I don't understand why you kept trying to treat it as unimportant.

    Lastly, notice that even if we disregard all the unforced errors, LD still leads LCW by a few points. So obviously my statistics doesn't deny that LD may be technically better.

    My conclusion is that LCW will have substantial chance beating LD if he can focus on every shot instead of the score. It would be nice if LCW can try this before OG, like LD did in Sudirman 2007 (where he obviously does not care much about winning but more about testing his new style)

    I am not a professional game analyst. I just did some statistics, found the result interesting to me, and therefore posted it to share with other people. If you think it's nonsense, you can

    1. simply ignore it, or
    2. do some research yourself, show your statistics and conclude that such statistics is meaningless.

     
    #9 ye333, Apr 2, 2008
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2008
  10. Birdwood

    Birdwood Regular Member

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    You did a good job on your analysis and came up with a theory. I just want to make a comment on LCW playing risky shots. From watching some videos, I found very often players who did risky shots had little choice because they were technically not as good as their opponents. Very often they could not break the defense and at the same time face a relentless offense so out of desperation they went for the winner (risky shots), but ended up with even more unforced errors. I'm not sure whether LCW could have played his shots differently: Did he have a choice? (care to comment on this?)
     
  11. ye333

    ye333 Regular Member

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    I think there is a difference between doing risky shots later in the game, when it's clear that such shots are necessary to win, and doing risky shots from the very start, before the game is unwrapped.

    My opinion is this: if one player chose highly risky shots from the very start, this shows he is mentally unstable or he is gambling. Such gambling may be a good strategy when opponent is much stronger (for example, if Shoji Sato is playing LD). On the other hand, if the opponent is just slightly stronger, like in LCW vs. LD, LCW has good chance to win if LD is not in top form, so it is not wise to gamble from the very start.

    In Swiss Open final, LCW made unforced errors from the very start. Before he had any chance to test LD's form. This is not what confident/mature players would do. In contrast, if we look at LD or TH's games, they always play the first few points safely, and use those points to test their opponents.

     
  12. Birdwood

    Birdwood Regular Member

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    I see your points there. Maybe that's why LD seems always a slow starter and often doing catch up in the game one. Never understood before, thanks for pointing out the difference.
     
  13. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    u got it totally backward:rolleyes:
    LD has the upper hand and it was LD who is feeling out lcw and not the other way.
    In present form, LD has the play style arsenals (ie. answers) to counter any players out there, be it taufik, lcw, PG, bcl, CJ, etc. Whether it was intentional or not, it seem lcw/misbun enter the match against LD with no specific game plan. Sure those players can test all they want and see what play style LD is using but unfortunately for them, it will be too late to catch up because LD is about to polishes them off
     
    #13 cooler, Apr 2, 2008
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2008
  14. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    i like to add that under NSS, it will COSTS u points to test your opponent and the execution has to be flawless if one want to catch up and wn under NSS.
     
  15. eaglehelang

    eaglehelang Regular Member

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    While you all are discussing this "unforced error" thingy, Misbun said to one of the malay press that LCW losses to CJ & LD in Europe was due to change of styles when playing LCW. CJ & LD changed their usual style to counter LCW. BCL's style remained the same, from what Misbun observed in BCL matches, although LCW didnt meet BCL in AE & SO.
    Therefore, Misbun said he & LCW would find strategies to counter these "new" styles. Of course Misbun wouldnt mention what those strategies are or what exactly CJ & LD's new strategies that he saw.

    You all can take a look at the vids again & see what Misbun meant.
     
  16. ye333

    ye333 Regular Member

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    Well, just watch LD vs. LHI. LHI used the whole first game to test LD and adjust the form of himself. He did very well in the following two games. You can also watch LD vs. PSH. PSH didn't try any risky shots, and it turned out that LD was not in top form that day (according to TSF, LD was not in bad form either). LCW panicked from the very start, and he lost without learning anything.

    You are talking like LD is God. :D

     
  17. ye333

    ye333 Regular Member

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    In Swiss Final, whenever LCW chose safer shots and a more passive mode, he could at least match LD. Then he tried some risky shots and gave a few points in a row to LD. :cool:

     
  18. Birdwood

    Birdwood Regular Member

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    If Misbun saw CJ and LD changed playing styles against LCW. Would it be possible for him to tell LCW what to do during the matches? I would image that's not something hard to do and that's why coaches were there outside of court :confused:
     
    #18 Birdwood, Apr 3, 2008
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2008
  19. eaglehelang

    eaglehelang Regular Member

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    Yes, either the strategies Misbun told LCW on the day didnt work, or LCW didnt execute them effectively. So, basically they need to think of strategies that work. CJ didnt manage to win over LCW in just 1 day, but months. Same as LCW didnt manage to win a match over LD until some time.

    Misbun also saw LHI with Li Mao there could read LCW's game, and said must find strategies to counter it. Although LCW won the match against LHI in MO 2008, on another day, LHI could have won.
     
    #19 eaglehelang, Apr 3, 2008
    Last edited: Apr 3, 2008
  20. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    u keep forgeting what i have said before in other threads. It was the line judges who beat LD at the 08 KO, not LHI. I ask u this, do u know any effective and legal tactical strategy to counter biased line judging?? So, u r saying LHI can read super Dan but LHI can't read some lower level players as we all know LHI was out on round 1 at the following AE and Swiss Open.
     

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