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What chance 5 China golds?

Discussion in 'Olympics ATHENS 2004' started by dlp, Mar 8, 2004.

  1. dlp

    dlp Regular Member

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    Looking at the Swiss open China picked up 4 titles and only missed out on the mxd to Kim/Ra in the final. If these results were repeated at the olympics it is conceivable that China could pick up 5 golds.

    The restriction on entries to 3 per country, particularly in singles makes it tougher for China at the olympics. Still China are clear favourites in both singles with 3 players as good as any in each event.

    In the mens doubles I would say they have the hottest pair at the moment, and they are getting better all the time, many of the former champions like Ha/Kim, Candra/Halim are looking vulnerable, and China probably have a second mens pair who could potentially medal, in womens doubles only injury should deny them gold.

    So is a Chinese clean sweep possible and how bad would that be for the game?
     
  2. Cheung

    Cheung Moderator

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    No chance! Mxd is no certainty.
     
  3. dlp

    dlp Regular Member

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    Lol , I didn't say mixed was a certainty Cheung but the Kim/Ra winning streak must end sometime and the Chinese look to be the next best bet in mixed, plus if kim and Ra both progress in the doubles events that could affect their chances.
     
  4. ants

    ants Regular Member

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    Very hard to get clean sweep in the Olympics.. but it is not imposibble.
     
  5. hcyong

    hcyong Regular Member

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    This much I am fairly confident.
    1. China will sweep the women's events.
    2. Korea will take the mixed doubles (their reign will end some time, but not at the Olympics, surely everything they do right now is geared towards the Olympic gold)

    The rest is up for grabs.
    MS
    China (60%) - any of Lin Dan, Chen Hong, Bao Chunlai could win (in that order)
    Malaysia (20%) - Wong Choon Hann
    Indonesia (10%) - Sony Dwi Kuncoro, resurgent Taufik?
    Korea (5%) - Lee Hyun II
    Denmark (4.5%) - resurgent Peter Gade?
    Others (0.5%) - Booksak Ponsana?
    Who else did I miss?

    MD
    Korea (30%) - Kim-Ha (a year ago, they would have much higher chance)
    China (30%) - Fu-Cai (a force to be reckoned with)
    Indonesia (20%) - never overlook Indon pairs, any of them
    Denmark (15%) - Passke-Rasmussen, other pairs have overtaken them recently
    Malaysia (4.5%) - Choong-Lee (dark horse)
    Others (0.5%) - the Thai pairs
     
  6. da ding

    da ding Regular Member

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    What about Lee/Yoo and Sang/Zheng?
     
  7. hcyong

    hcyong Regular Member

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    Of course I did consider them, but in addition to being to lazy to list them all out, I also think that if the Koreans would win it, it would be Kim-Ha and if the Chinese would win it, it would be Cai-Fu.
     
  8. - 73* -

    - 73* - Regular Member

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    xia..??
     
  9. hcyong

    hcyong Regular Member

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    Yes, him as well, if selected. China is the only team whose 4th singles player could conceivably win the gold. But it is also conceivable for China not to win it, as opposed to the women's events. Really shows the depth of international men's competition.
     
  10. dlp

    dlp Regular Member

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    Thats not a bad analysis hcyong

    WHile I would like to think that Gade could come from nowhere to win I think it is almost impossible, Jonassen would seem a better bet, he was possibly the closest to the Chinese at WC last year.

    Kim/Ha definately haven't been at their best since Ha was injured around last years AE, I suggested at that time that Kim should have switched partners, I'm beginning to think I was right, but hopefully they can still do it, before retirement.
     
  11. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    usually i'd say it is hard as athlete's performance is like a ocean wave, it goes up and down and up and down. look at Jonassen for example, he had a good run at the beginning of the year, but now has faded. Roslin did pretty well two years ago AE time, his performance dipped since then, now he is starting to do well again.

    to really win the Olympics, one need to time the performance peak right at that time. cyclists seems to be able to time and predict such peak with great accuracy. badminton players, however, i am not sure.

    at the same time, i see little wave pattern from Chinese players, they seem to be rather consistent in their performance, i guess there is up and down, but their down level is usually pretty high relative to players from other countries.

    Zhang Ning peaked around WC and she is now showing her first sign of dipping. let's see if she can recover from it or will she be in a downtrend from now on?

    i think Misbun mentioned that he wanted to sacrifice the TC by having his players peak during the Olympics instead of the TC 3 month earlier.

    if the Chinese mis-time the peak perfomance cycle, they might have peak too early and by the time Olympics come, they will not thrive as they did in recent tournaments.

    Koreans in general are down, so are the Indonesians. but perhaps they are just timing their peak performance to when it matters. so don't count them out just yet.......
     

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