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What is the chance for Team China?

Discussion in 'World Championships 2011' started by AlanY, Jul 28, 2011.

  1. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    So, what is the chance for Team China to have a clean sweep of all 5 golds, again?
    It’s not going to be easy, to put it mildly.

    My take is;
    1) MS 60/40,
    2) WS 80/20,
    3) MD 50/50,
    4) WD 95/5, and
    5) XD 60/40.

    The overall chance for 5 golds is just under 14%.

    As for 4 golds is between 15 to 30%, and
    3 golds is between 18 to 45%.

    So, what do you think?
     
  2. Weily

    Weily Regular Member

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    i will say MS is 50/50 and WS is 60/40, other than that your predict seems reasonable.

    MS - LCW and Sho may spoil their party.
    WS - German, Denmark, India, Taiwan and Thailand are all capable to beat China.
     
  3. LD rules!

    LD rules! Regular Member

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    IMO the real threat to team China's clean sweep, is in MD.:) there are about 7-8 pairs who have the potential to win the title. Cai/Fu are of course one of these pairs (as are Chai Biao/Guo Zhengdong) but there are many other pairs who could take the title.
     
  4. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    clean sweep? i don't think China will be capable of repeating the clean sweep of last year. LCW is too much of a threat in MS, MD as you said and even the top XD are very much just a 50/50 proposition for China.
     
  5. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    well, how many of us thought that was possible last year?
    China definitely capable, but can they pull it off on the day? not easy, as i said.
     
  6. LD rules!

    LD rules! Regular Member

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    For MS: CJ will be under a lot of pressure to get as far as possible, and CL will also be under pressure as LYB would expect either CJ or CL to win against LCW. For XD: I have picked Tao Jiaming/Tian Qing to win, although I think that Zhang Nan/Zhao Yunlei as well as Xu Chen/Ma Jin will also be big threats. I think that Tantowi Ahmad/Liliyana Natsir, won't win, Tantowi is possibly too inexperenced and might not handle the pressure, plus there are many opportunities in the draw for that pair to slip up.
     
  7. press100

    press100 Regular Member

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    For now the sure win for China teams is from WD. Yu Yang/ Wang Xiaoli are too strong for others (including their compatriot Zhang Yunlei/Tian Qing).
     
  8. luvina

    luvina Regular Member

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    Totally agree with you :)
    Maybe we don't need wait the result from WD anymore :D
     
  9. cobalt

    cobalt Moderator

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    A decade of Yellow

    I just came upon this article; thought I would share it...

    Yellow decade
    The Week, July 31 2011

    Many believe Chinese can be defeated on court
    By Neeru Bhatia/Hyderabad


    Full article: http://www.the-week.com/cgi-bin/MMO...TypeId=1073754893&contentType=EDITORIAL&BV_ID=@@@

    Excerpts:

    It is difficult to miss the crowd’s envy and awe, when the 26-member Chinese team in yellow jerseys walks in to train. Most of the players are top seeds in some category or the other. The buzz is heightened because of the presence of Lin Dan, Olympic gold medallist and twice World Champion. In the last decade, China has completely dominated world badminton.

    ...Bo said he wanted to give his young players the experience of playing in top events such as this, especially as part of preparation for the 2012 Olympics in London. But his hardcore professionalism was seen when he answered the question on who will win, Dan or Wei? He said: “If Lin Dan does not play to his full potential and up to expectations, then probably Wei will win.”
     
  10. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

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    If Lin Dan does not play to his full potential and up to expectations......

    .
    :D:D:D It looks like even LYB thinks that it's either LCW or LD will win the 2011 World Championships Mens Singles title.

    Why doesn't he give much moral support to Chen Long, I wonder? :eek::eek::eek:
    .
     
    #10 chris-ccc, Aug 1, 2011
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2011
  11. cobalt

    cobalt Moderator

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    Another way to look at it may be:

    He's taking the pressure of expectations off the shoulders of Chen Long, so that he can perform without any more stress... :)
     
  12. MilGauss

    MilGauss Regular Member

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    He will spank the opposition to instil fear and broadcast to everyone who is king of courts come OG2012. He sure can whip his body into condition literally in 2 weeks/2 months depending which tourney he is going to enter...

    He can literally press the button and find another extra gear at will...um, well motivation is key of course no doubt.;)
     
  13. demolidor

    demolidor Regular Member

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    Li Yong Bo? :cool: At his age 2 weeks is a little optimistic :D (same goes for Lin Dan)
     
  14. MilGauss

    MilGauss Regular Member

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    LYB would rather curl up than train an unholy 2-week training programme designed to disable the unfits/misfits.;) And 2 weeks for LD is plenty depending on his form.
     
  15. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    resent

    As the date is getting closer let’s reassess Team China’s chance for 5 Golds again.

    Over the years for China to pick up 3 titles in a tournament is a norm, 4 titles is good and a clean sweeps obviously an excellent one. This is the year before the Olympics that results/ranking points are getting more meaningful to everyone. Since the beginning of this year Team China was in 5 tournaments and the numbers of titles are 4,4,3,4, and 4. An improvement of the “norm OK” tournament of 3.

    So, which of the 5 is the likely weakest link?

    WS and WD are as good as given, they are in the bag.

    MS includes 4 from the top 10 with the reigning World Champion and Olympics Champion, what a team. The two youngsters are very good but more experience needed. As for the World Champion, if he is injures free he is in as good chance as anyone. If the Olympics Champion plays to his 90-95% capacity the rest of the world might as well stay home and don’t bother, it’s in the bag.

    MD used to be the weakest link of the team but not anymore with the resurgent of form for the World Champion and the ever improving second pair. From the last 5 tournaments they had won 3 titles and 1 Runner’s Up between them. The main threat again will be from the Korean, as always.

    XD, again with 3 top pairs seeded. All 3 pairs are quite young but with experience in winning, particular big match. After all, they have 13 SuperSeries titles between them. The XD Gold should be quite a save bet.

    So, the clean sweep is a real possibility and China Jia You.
     
  16. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

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    Looking at the draw and strictly from a predicting point of view and not what I would like to see happen...with MK/HS out, FHF/CY looks to meet LYD/JSJ at SF, if FHF/CY wins, MD gold to CHN....WS/WD done deal, bet on all CHN final. LCW has a tough path, odds is not good unless LCW plays his best form at every round, while LD has a better draw, I say CHN win MS....XD, LN/AT has to go through 2 CHN pairs, my bet goes to CHN. The stumbling block is MD SF and will LCW go to final and what playing shape will he be in? Unlike SEA, CHN players play well in London, a sweep is probable. I would not bet on it nor bet against it.
     
  17. MilGauss

    MilGauss Regular Member

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    Which roughly translates to: hard to fault:)?
     
  18. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

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    I actually wanted to wait another 2 days to think about it before I poll. But to please you and since this is a forum for friendly discussions, not gambling place to win/lose $$$ (all we win is hot air and bragging rights that very fast vaporize and forgettable), here are my prediction. I say CHN wins 4 golds: WS (WSX), WD (YY/WXL), XD (ZYL/ZN) and MS (LD's 4th record setting WC). LYD/JSJ or CM/MO will stop FHF/CY (FHF/CY have won 3 WC, Murphy law say nada to a 4th one):D I will poll now;)
     
  19. julianng

    julianng Regular Member

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    LOL, how come Murphy Law doesn't say nada to a LD 4th WC winner medal ?

    Murphy Law only work for MD ?
     
  20. MilGauss

    MilGauss Regular Member

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    4 Golds, yep maybe (don't think it would be a problem except on an off day.;)). However, Murphy's Law doesn't apply here.:) Take the national/state exams multiple choice for instance (that's just one example and quite unrelated...but a fun fact.;)), if a student blackened 3 straight choices on choice ''A'', chances are: the fourth answer will also be choice ''A'' as well (but not the fifth):). My 0.2 pence.:D

    What I mean is the 4 Golds may include the fourth title of an individual or pair in this tourney/any other tourney.:cool:

    LD and FHF/CY are my best bets, the rests though I've cast my vote already, there's still a sliver of a doubt at the back of my mind.;)
     

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