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when are athletes considered too old to maintain dominance?

Discussion in 'Professional Players' started by samkool, Jun 30, 2017.

  1. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    i wanted to have data points when referring to an athlete as old relative to their peers. it can be useful when discussing if player [a] is expected to beat player, despite their age, because player [a] has been a dominant player for many years.

    what age are world class athletes at their peak? (it is obviously different for male vs. female.)
    how many years, on avg., does peak performance last? i think it's around 3 years.
    what age is considered old? i think the journey down starts @ 30.

    first data set is men's singles. for the top 20 ms athletes the avg. age is 26.75.

    for each player decide if they're heading up, peaked, or down from their peak based on the last 6 months or so: (my opinions are inserted)

    1. son wan ho 29 peak
    2. lee chong wei 34 down
    3. viktor axelsen 23 up
    4. shi yuqi 21 up
    5. chen long 28 peak
    6. chou tien chen 27 peak
    7. lin dan 33 down
    8. kidambi srikanth 24 up
    9. ng ka long angus 23 up
    10. jan o jorgensen 29 down
    11. lee hyun il 37 peak (freak :p)
    12. tian houwei 25 peak
    13. tanongsak saensomboonsuk 26 peak
    14. wong wing ki vincent 27 down
    15. sai praneeth b. 24 up
    16. ajay jayaram 29 down
    17. qiao bin 24 up
    18. wang tzu wei 22 up
    19. anders antonsen 20 up
    20. rajiv ouseph 30 down
     
    #1 samkool, Jun 30, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2017
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  2. Nine Tailed Fox

    Nine Tailed Fox Regular Member

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    I think age is an important factor in badminton as it hampers your raw strength, stamina and explosiveness.

    But the skill scale is still the deciding factor for some of these oldies.
     
  3. R20190

    R20190 Regular Member

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    A lot of people would say intuitively, once you are past your mid-twenties your performance will decline. I think in most cases this is probably true but I don't think this is just down to your physical ability (assuming no injuries). I think the most significant factor is the desire to play and win.

    When you have done something religiously day in day out, for as long as you can remember there comes a point when your desire to carry on performing at the highest level will decline especially when you feel it is just a routine and mundane "job" that you are doing with nothing new to learn. And it only takes a slight loss in desire to have a big effect on your game.

    For someone at the very top of the game, when you have won a lot of competitions, shown yourself as the best in the sport, it would be difficult to maintain that hunger. This is why (imho) you see a lot of top sports players change coaches or adopt new game plans late in their career, to inject new ideas and give a new sense of challenge to their game.

    I think if they can find a new outlook on the game, something new to learn or challenge to conquer to reignite that hunger and obsession in the sport, there is no reason why these more senior players cannot continue to perform at the very top level for years to come.
     
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  4. ucantseeme

    ucantseeme Regular Member

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    When it comes to age, we should also count in that most people will marry in the mid to late twenties and start to found a family around 30 or earlier. Everybody who experienced this development in his/her life, will agree that your free time for yourself becomes much shorter and the centre of your life changes alot.

    That an around 21 years old young guy can spend his whole day in sporting halls and travelling the whole world to play, is not a big deal.

    That an around 31 years married man with 1-2 kids, can't spend his whole day in sporting halls and travel the globe sounds natural. You also have a responsibility for other people in your life and need to keep them secure and warm.

    I also need to add, that if you wreck your body ruthless for a career for nearly 2 decades, you will have downsides and a wear down of your body. Your recovery drops with every year you age and this means more injuries.

    Finally we all need to accept that as a badminton pro you don't get rich as easy and quick like a mediocre soccer or tennis pro or a mediocre NFL, NHL or NBA star. That some badminton pros decide one day to learn and do a job to have a future when they are old also needs time which you can't spend in halls or playing tournaments.
     
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  5. Justin L

    Justin L Regular Member

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    Both R20190 and ucantseeme made very good and relevant points, esp to players who have been at the sport for about 10 years and around age 30. I feel that it is also necessary to take a sufficient long break from it so as to find renewed zest for the sport again. Or simply take a rest in order to go further.

    If I may add, at the risk of sounding cliched, badminton is your life, but your life isn't only badminton.
     
  6. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    second data set is women's singles. for the top 20 ws athletes the avg. age is 22.75. 4 years younger than the men. like the men, data (not supplied here) suggests their peak lasts about 3 years.

    for each player decide if they're heading up, peaked, or down from their peak based on the last 6 months or so: (my opinions are inserted)

    1. tai tzu ying 23 up
    2. akane yamaguchi 20 up
    3. sung ji hyun 25 peak
    4. carolina marin 24 peak
    5. pusarla v. sindhu 21 up
    6. sun yu 23 peak
    7. he bingjiao 20 up
    8. nozomi okuhara 22 up
    9. ratchanok intanon 22 peak
    10. beiwen zhang 27 peak
    11. chen yufei 19 up
    12. busanan ongbamrungphan 21 up
    13. nitchaon jindapol 26 peak
    14. sayaka sato 26 peak
    15. saina nehwal 27 peak
    16. cheung ngan yi 24 peak
    17. minatsu mitani 25 peak
    18. aya ohori 20 up
    19. chen xiaoxin 19 up
    20. pornpawee chochuwong 19 up
     
    #6 samkool, Jul 3, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2017
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  7. LD rules!

    LD rules! Regular Member

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    Ouseph became European champion but is going down? lol
     
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  8. ucantseeme

    ucantseeme Regular Member

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    Hey, you are still alive!!!:) The legendary LD rules! Do you still play the SW35? ;) I'm happy that you are still here.:D
     
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  9. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    yes. look at the euro competition ranked above him (in post #1). pretty much answers your ?'n, wouldn't you say?

    axelsen playing erratic, joj injured & going down, antonsen young & inexperienced.
    oh, and rajiv has been ranked higher in the past.
     
  10. LD rules!

    LD rules! Regular Member

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    I am still here, never left really ;) And sadly I retired my last one. Didn't want to take a chance that I would break it and be left with none. I wish I could find something that comes close to it though.
     
  11. LD rules!

    LD rules! Regular Member

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    Still had to go and win it, I am not a Ouseph fan by any stretch of the imagination but he still had to beat HKV and AA in front of their own Danish fans and trust me that is a hostile environment to be in. His play in the last six months is enough to suggest that he is steady ie neither up or down. he isn't a top 10 player as he doesn't quite have all the weapons but he is a solid top 20 player who in the right circumstances has enough to trouble the best players.
     
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  12. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    you're absolutely right, but it doesn't change the fact he's on the downside of his career. btw, i am a fan of rajiv.
     
  13. ucantseeme

    ucantseeme Regular Member

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    I disagree here a bit about the logic. If somebody goes up, somebody must be go down. I also don't understand how you can say for somebody "peak" when their ranking is going down the past month.

    So all WS players are peaking or going up? hmmmm. I disagree on several femal players according to the ranking history of the past month and my impression at tournaments.
     
  14. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    this discussion is about age and the individual, not ranking. please re-read post #1. i am basing it on how they are playing relative to their own career. some players never crack the top 50/75/100/what have you during their peak years, right? you know, the players we never hear about or see.

    in other threads there's always talk about how and why certain players win or lose. translation: fanboy excuses. mostly about the men's singles g.o.a.t., to which i say 'well ya, he's old (for a professional athlete). i don't expect him to win all the time. i live in reality.'
     
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  15. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    average age of md is 26.30. remove the outliers (boe/mogensen) and the avg. age drops to 25.39


    1. li junhui/liu yuchen 22/21 up

    2. mathias boe/carsten mogensen 36/33 down

    3. marcus fernaldi gideon/kevin sanjaya sukamuljo 26/20 peak/up

    4. takeshi kamura/keigo sonoda 27/27 peak

    5. goh v shem/tan wee kiong 28/28 down

    6. chai biao/hong wei 26/27 down

    7. mads conrad-petersen/mads pieler-kolding 29/29 peak

    8. liu cheng/zhang nan 25/27 peak

    9. lee jhe-huei/lee yang 23/21 up

    10. angga pratama/ricky karandasuwardi 26/25 down

    the big ?'n going forward is how much longer will sukamuljo & gideon remain a team?
     
  16. ibelieveindevil

    ibelieveindevil Regular Member

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    Sorry, BoMo consider "down"?
     
  17. ucantseeme

    ucantseeme Regular Member

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    IMO this whole thread is useless. It's impossible here to discuss and all important had been said. To say that somebody peak, go or go down are individual impressions and depends on

    • How long you have an eye on the players and when did they get a pressence at media
    • Which data you use for your impression and this is one of the most dirty measurement (win/loss, ranking, personal impression of performance, points etc.)
    • How many matches have you watched. Knowing that some players wouldn't shown, because they weren't playing on the TV Court
     
  18. Borkya

    Borkya Regular Member

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    For the women being younger I would argue it is not a biological thing, but a culture thing. Especially as so many woman are asian and they have a lot of pressure to start a family and have a baby before the age of 28. I would guess they officially retire at a much younger age too because of the baby issue, not because of an actual decline in physical ability.
     
  19. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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  20. latecomer

    latecomer Regular Member

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