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Will Lee Chong Wei remain World No.1 until the 2012 OG?

Discussion in 'Malaysia Professional Players' started by chris-ccc, Apr 6, 2009.

  1. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

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    Our PAW Rankings and how it is derived and computed is exactly the same as BWF's

    .
    Referring to Sandy 's thread again. Our BC PAW Ranking Points are exactly the same as the BWF Ranking Points. And our PAW Rankings and how it is derived and computed is exactly the same as the BWF World Rankings.

    Source: click here
    .
     
  2. robin7

    robin7 Regular Member

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    As of 9 April 2009, LCW's world ranking points is 84179.

    Top 10 performance in 52 weeks
    3/15/2009 WILSON Swiss Open Super Series 2009 S.Series 9200 Winner
    3/8/2009 YONEX All England Super Series 2009 S.Series 7800 Runner-Up
    1/18/2009 Korea Super Series 2009 S.Series 7800 Runner-Up
    1/11/2009 Malaysia Super Series 2009 S.Series 9200 Winner
    11/23/2008 LI NING China Open Super Series 2008 S.Series 7800 Runner-Up
    11/2/2008 French Super Series 2008 S.Series 6420 Semi-Finalist
    9/21/2008 YONEX Open Japan Super Series 2008 S.Series 7800 Runner-Up
    8/17/2008 Olympic Games 2008 BWF Events 10200 Runner-Up
    6/15/2008 Singapore Super Series 2008 S.Series 9200 Winner
    5/18/2008 Thomas & Uber Cup Finals 2008 BWF Events 8759

    In order to stay on top, LCW basically needs about 80000 ranking points by winning some titles plus some finals and semi-finals appearances on the best 10 tournaments he enters.

    Scenario A: 8 SS finals + WC finals + TC/SC semi-finals
    Super Series: 8 X 7800 = 62400
    BWF events (WC): 10200
    BWF events (TC/SC): 8400
    Total WR pts: 81000

    Scenario B: 2 SS titles + 4 SS finals + 2 SS semi-finals + WC finals + TC/SC semi-finals
    Super Series: (2 X 9200) + (4 X 7800) + (2 X 6420) = 62440
    BWF events (WC): 10200
    BWF events (TC/SC): 8400
    Total WR pts: 81040

    Scenario C: 2 SS titles + 3 SS finals + 1 SS semi-finals + 2 GP Gold titles + WC finals + TC/SC semi-finals
    Super Series: (2 X 9200) + (3 X 7800) + (1 X 6420) = 48220
    GP Gold: 2 X 7000 = 14000
    BWF events (WC): 10200
    BWF events (TC/SC): 8400
    Total WR pts: 80820

    Note:
    1. 2 SS finals (7800) are as good as 1 SS titles (9200) plus 1 SS semi-finals (6420). 15600 vs 15620
    2. 2 GP Gold titles (7000) are as good as 1 SS finals (7800) plus 1 SS semi-finals (6420). 14000 vs 14220

    I think LCW can mantain the top spot in 2009/2010 but it would be tougher in 2011/2012.

    External factors:
    1. Current top 10 players
    I predict that LD's performance will drop more drastically than LCW in the next few years. Despite his younger age, LD seems older physically and fitness wise. Since LD has won almost all the majors (except AG), the only motivation that keeps him going is probably the AG. Yes, we are talking about world number one.
    PG & TH will no longer be a threat to LCW in the next few years.
    BCL, CJ & SDK are more injury-proned than LCW.
    2. Future top 10 players
    Youngsters such as HJH, KT, JOJ & CL could break into top 10 and probably win some titles by 2012 but are still far away from dislodging LCW.

    In conclusion, as long as LCW can keep himself healthy and competitive, he's likely to stay at the top till 2012.
     
  3. Loh

    Loh Regular Member

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    Oh, so PAW Ranking Points is based entirely on BWF Ranking Points. If that's the case shan't we refer just to the official one instead of confusing ourselves? :D
     
  4. robin7

    robin7 Regular Member

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    Only best 10 tournaments will be considered. QF is not good enough. Refer to post #163 for further details.
     
  5. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

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    Ain't that the fact...playing pro baddy is a job and a business as I said so often....there is no one to take care of the player's retirement and DLCW is the lucky one, with fame, million $$$, Datoship, Miss Wong:D, lifetime pension, endorsement, etc but for one Dato, there are many players that need a second job after playing career is over...therefore maintain WR1 as long as possible (RM180/yr) and win as many titles as possible, the end of the career is nearing but do remember to send a thank-you card to LD for being absent...come to think of it, could be a conspiracy, this LD chap must be getting a commision or kick-back for not playing so Dato can rack up WR points:rolleyes::p:D
     
  6. Loh

    Loh Regular Member

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    I just hope there will be a challenge for the WR1 spot before long, otherwise it will be a dull MS world scenario if LCW continues to dominate, just as it is uninteresting to watch the China Wall being so difficult to penetrate by other badminton powerhouses. :(

    In the end LCW may lose his motivation to do better just as LD is currently giving the impression that he is not interested in participating in so many SS events. And both may suffer the consequences when London Olympics beckons. :eek:
     
  7. Loh

    Loh Regular Member

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    Ain't they good friends? :p

    But LD has on record earned more than LCW so there is no need for him to conspire. Maybe they can do a show together to share the takings equally? :D
     
  8. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

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    I am really convinced there is a setup like this...LD and DLCW ROFLOL discussing BCers arguing over them in the BC forum...LD telling DLCW, hey we are buddies but those BCers thought we are enemies, those dumb BCers...look I play less SS so you better win as much as possible and rack up WR#1 points, get your dough quick, GF, $$$, etc...me not playing would help you go to finals or win but I can't control my comrades, those young pubs don't listen to me, they are hungry and out to kissing and proving to LYB so better watch out for them but don't take too long to win your first SS away from MAS...one thing you promise me to leave the major titles for me so I can be legend above legends....and we retire happily and weathly;):p:D
     
  9. koo_fan

    koo_fan Regular Member

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    This is very subjective, Uncle Loh.
    I'd love to see him on the top, more than just being a current WR1. But a WR1 that would be remembered.
     
  10. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

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    Yeah....but show respect and appreciation....like in the old days, the king of other provinces has to bestow gifts, $$$, etc to the emperor (who is rich already) but respect lah:p:D
     
  11. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

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    Our PAW Ranking Points is based entirely on BWF Ranking Points

    .
    :D:D:D Perhaps our robin7 is the best BCer to advise LCW what tournaments to play/not to play. Post #163 (from robin7) is an excellent analysis.

    :):):)
    .
     
  12. Loh

    Loh Regular Member

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    Of course it is, just like CHN wanting to capture all the badminton titles at the next Olympics! :D
     
  13. eaglehelang

    eaglehelang Regular Member

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    Hiyaaa, I asking whether will be deducted or not lah and how they divide the Team events points, not whether same or not with PAW points :p. To compare2 with PAW points, still too complicating, can <fainted>. PAW points I think doesnt include Team Events like Sudirman, TC, Uber.

    :D:D
     
    #173 eaglehelang, Apr 13, 2009
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2009
  14. eaglehelang

    eaglehelang Regular Member

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    Correct, correct, this chris, hiyaa ;);)
     
  15. hhs1000

    hhs1000 Regular Member

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    Let me add some scientific spin into this discussion.

    I believe most of you agree that LCW is at his peak now (100%). In badminton, below are the important attributes to be a successful player,
    - Skill
    - Speed
    - Stamina
    - Power
    At this moment LCW has 100% for all the attribute. Where do you think LCW will be 3 years down the road. My take, with generous assumption as he is a Dato from Bolehland,
    - Skill, still 100%
    - Speed, 90% (for others I will give 80%)
    - Stamina, 90% (for others, 70%)
    - Power, 90% (for others, 70%).

    Aggregate LCW's score in 2012 = 100%x90%x90%x90% = 72.9%. He will be about 73% of what he is today.

    What is the chance for a 73% DLCW to still stay at the top ?. My take is 30%.
     
  16. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

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    How ranking points are dropped/added to the BWF World Rankings?

    .
    Asking whether will be deducted or not, not whether same or not with PAW points

    eaglehelang ,

    You did not read the link that I sent you (see Post #160).
    In that link, which is one of Sandy 's threads, robin7 asked the same question as you did.

    OK, let's copy and paste the Q&A from Sandy 's thread, namely;
    http://www.badmintoncentral.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64511

    Post #7
    Post #8
    Post #9
    Post #10
    In other words,
    (1) ranking points are added from tournaments played in the last 52 weeks
    (2) if more than 10 tournaments are played in the last 52 weeks, then the best 10 ranking points shall be added. The 11th lowest value shall be dropped.

    :):):)
    .
     
    #176 chris-ccc, Apr 13, 2009
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2009
  17. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

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    What if we have a different set of assumptions?

    .
    hhs1000 ... Your spin is based on:
    - Skill, remaining at 100%
    - Speed, dropping to 90%
    - Stamina, dropping to 90%
    - Power, dropping to 90%

    What if we have the following:
    - Skill, increased by 30%
    - Speed, dropped by 10%
    - Stamina, dropped by 10%
    - Power, dropped by 10%

    The aggregate LCW's score in 2012 would roughly be remaining at 100% of what he is today.

    :):):)
    .
     
    #177 chris-ccc, Apr 13, 2009
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2009
  18. limsy

    limsy Regular Member

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    closer?
    looks like the advanced english education prof.p have some problem of understanding the word 'closer'
    IF cl is wr 120 last week,and he is wr 100 this week
    are he closer to lcw in term of wr compare to last week?:rolleyes:
    i think the student that know how to minus 120 and 100;) know the answer:rolleyes:
     
  19. Loh

    Loh Regular Member

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    It baffles me how we can equate these qualities in terms of percentages. :D

    Circumstances will change and affect one's performance, especially over such a lengthy period of time from now till 2012. An intangible quality called "FORM" can often derail all assumptions and predictions.

    A less skilled but highly motivated player can create upsets as so often witnessed in the international badminton circuit. Not to mention the unpredictables like injury during a rally. :eek:
     
  20. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

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    The difference between CL's and LCW's ranking positions is now smaller or closer

    .
    limsy, Your thoughts are logical and clear. :):):)

    Yes, some think that 'closer' means 'next to'. Actually it means what you have posted, 'closer' means 'the difference between CL's and LCW's ranking positions is now smaller compared to last week'.
    .
     
    #180 chris-ccc, Apr 13, 2009
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2009

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