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  1. #1
    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
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    Default What is the chance for Team China?

    So, what is the chance for Team China to have a clean sweep of all 5 golds, again?
    Itís not going to be easy, to put it mildly.

    My take is;
    1) MS 60/40,
    2) WS 80/20,
    3) MD 50/50,
    4) WD 95/5, and
    5) XD 60/40.

    The overall chance for 5 golds is just under 14%.

    As for 4 golds is between 15 to 30%, and
    3 golds is between 18 to 45%.

    So, what do you think?

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    Quote Originally Posted by AlanY View Post
    So, what is the chance for Team China to have a clean sweep of all 5 golds, again?
    ItÔŅĹs not going to be easy, to put it mildly.

    My take is;
    1) MS 60/40,
    2) WS 80/20,
    3) MD 50/50,
    4) WD 95/5, and
    5) XD 60/40.

    The overall chance for 5 golds is just under 14%.

    As for 4 golds is between 15 to 30%, and
    3 golds is between 18 to 45%.

    So, what do you think?


    i will say MS is 50/50 and WS is 60/40, other than that your predict seems reasonable.

    MS - LCW and Sho may spoil their party.
    WS - German, Denmark, India, Taiwan and Thailand are all capable to beat China.

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    IMO the real threat to team China's clean sweep, is in MD. there are about 7-8 pairs who have the potential to win the title. Cai/Fu are of course one of these pairs (as are Chai Biao/Guo Zhengdong) but there are many other pairs who could take the title.

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    Administrator kwun's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LD rules! View Post
    IMO the real threat to team China's clean sweep, is in MD. there are about 7-8 pairs who have the potential to win the title. Cai/Fu are of course one of these pairs (as are Chai Biao/Guo Zhengdong) but there are many other pairs who could take the title.
    clean sweep? i don't think China will be capable of repeating the clean sweep of last year. LCW is too much of a threat in MS, MD as you said and even the top XD are very much just a 50/50 proposition for China.

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    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwun View Post
    clean sweep? i don't think China will be capable of repeating the clean sweep of last year. LCW is too much of a threat in MS, MD as you said and even the top XD are very much just a 50/50 proposition for China.
    well, how many of us thought that was possible last year?
    China definitely capable, but can they pull it off on the day? not easy, as i said.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kwun View Post
    clean sweep? i don't think China will be capable of repeating the clean sweep of last year. LCW is too much of a threat in MS, MD as you said and even the top XD are very much just a 50/50 proposition for China.
    For MS: CJ will be under a lot of pressure to get as far as possible, and CL will also be under pressure as LYB would expect either CJ or CL to win against LCW. For XD: I have picked Tao Jiaming/Tian Qing to win, although I think that Zhang Nan/Zhao Yunlei as well as Xu Chen/Ma Jin will also be big threats. I think that Tantowi Ahmad/Liliyana Natsir, won't win, Tantowi is possibly too inexperenced and might not handle the pressure, plus there are many opportunities in the draw for that pair to slip up.

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    Regular Member press100's Avatar
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    For now the sure win for China teams is from WD. Yu Yang/ Wang Xiaoli are too strong for others (including their compatriot Zhang Yunlei/Tian Qing).

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    Regular Member luvina's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by press100 View Post
    For now the sure win for China teams is from WD. Yu Yang/ Wang Xiaoli are too strong for others (including their compatriot Zhang Yunlei/Tian Qing).
    Totally agree with you
    Maybe we don't need wait the result from WD anymore

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    Moderator cobalt's Avatar
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    Default A decade of Yellow

    I just came upon this article; thought I would share it...

    Yellow decade
    The Week, July 31 2011

    Many believe Chinese can be defeated on court
    By Neeru Bhatia/Hyderabad


    Full article: http://www.the-week.com/cgi-bin/MMOn...DITORIAL&BV_ID=@@@

    Excerpts:

    It is difficult to miss the crowdís envy and awe, when the 26-member Chinese team in yellow jerseys walks in to train. Most of the players are top seeds in some category or the other. The buzz is heightened because of the presence of Lin Dan, Olympic gold medallist and twice World Champion. In the last decade, China has completely dominated world badminton.

    ...Bo said he wanted to give his young players the experience of playing in top events such as this, especially as part of preparation for the 2012 Olympics in London. But his hardcore professionalism was seen when he answered the question on who will win, Dan or Wei? He said: ďIf Lin Dan does not play to his full potential and up to expectations, then probably Wei will win.Ē

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    Regular Member chris-ccc's Avatar
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    Arrow If Lin Dan does not play to his full potential and up to expectations......

    Quote Originally Posted by cobalt View Post
    I just came upon this article; thought I would share it...

    Yellow decade
    The Week, July 31 2011

    Many believe Chinese can be defeated on court
    By Neeru Bhatia/Hyderabad


    Full article: http://www.the-week.com/cgi-bin/MMOn...DITORIAL&BV_ID=@@@

    Excerpts:

    It is difficult to miss the crowd’s envy and awe, when the 26-member Chinese team in yellow jerseys walks in to train. Most of the players are top seeds in some category or the other. The buzz is heightened because of the presence of Lin Dan, Olympic gold medallist and twice World Champion. In the last decade, China has completely dominated world badminton.

    ...Bo said he wanted to give his young players the experience of playing in top events such as this, especially as part of preparation for the 2012 Olympics in London. But his hardcore professionalism was seen when he answered the question on who will win, Dan or Wei? He said: “If Lin Dan does not play to his full potential and up to expectations, then probably Wei will win.
    .
    It looks like even LYB thinks that it's either LCW or LD will win the 2011 World Championships Mens Singles title.

    Why doesn't he give much moral support to Chen Long, I wonder?
    .
    Last edited by chris-ccc; 08-01-2011 at 01:08 PM.

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    Moderator cobalt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chris-ccc View Post
    .
    It looks like even LYB thinks that it's either LCW or LD will win the 2011 World Championships Mens Singles title.

    Why doesn't he give much moral support to Chen Long, I wonder?
    .
    Another way to look at it may be:

    He's taking the pressure of expectations off the shoulders of Chen Long, so that he can perform without any more stress...

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    He will spank the opposition to instil fear and broadcast to everyone who is king of courts come OG2012. He sure can whip his body into condition literally in 2 weeks/2 months depending which tourney he is going to enter...

    He can literally press the button and find another extra gear at will...um, well motivation is key of course no doubt.

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    Regular Member demolidor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MilGauss View Post
    He will spank the opposition to instil fear and broadcast to everyone who is king of courts come OG2012. He sure can whip his body into condition literally in 2 weeks/2 months depending which tourney he is going to enter...

    He can literally press the button and find another extra gear at will...um, well motivation is key of course no doubt.
    Li Yong Bo? At his age 2 weeks is a little optimistic (same goes for Lin Dan)

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    Quote Originally Posted by demolidor View Post
    Li Yong Bo? At his age 2 weeks is a little optimistic (same goes for Lin Dan)
    LYB would rather curl up than train an unholy 2-week training programme designed to disable the unfits/misfits. And 2 weeks for LD is plenty depending on his form.

  15. #15
    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
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    As the date is getting closer letís reassess Team Chinaís chance for 5 Golds again.

    Over the years for China to pick up 3 titles in a tournament is a norm, 4 titles is good and a clean sweeps obviously an excellent one. This is the year before the Olympics that results/ranking points are getting more meaningful to everyone. Since the beginning of this year Team China was in 5 tournaments and the numbers of titles are 4,4,3,4, and 4. An improvement of the ďnorm OKĒ tournament of 3.

    So, which of the 5 is the likely weakest link?

    WS and WD are as good as given, they are in the bag.

    MS includes 4 from the top 10 with the reigning World Champion and Olympics Champion, what a team. The two youngsters are very good but more experience needed. As for the World Champion, if he is injures free he is in as good chance as anyone. If the Olympics Champion plays to his 90-95% capacity the rest of the world might as well stay home and donít bother, itís in the bag.

    MD used to be the weakest link of the team but not anymore with the resurgent of form for the World Champion and the ever improving second pair. From the last 5 tournaments they had won 3 titles and 1 Runnerís Up between them. The main threat again will be from the Korean, as always.

    XD, again with 3 top pairs seeded. All 3 pairs are quite young but with experience in winning, particular big match. After all, they have 13 SuperSeries titles between them. The XD Gold should be quite a save bet.

    So, the clean sweep is a real possibility and China Jia You.

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    Looking at the draw and strictly from a predicting point of view and not what I would like to see happen...with MK/HS out, FHF/CY looks to meet LYD/JSJ at SF, if FHF/CY wins, MD gold to CHN....WS/WD done deal, bet on all CHN final. LCW has a tough path, odds is not good unless LCW plays his best form at every round, while LD has a better draw, I say CHN win MS....XD, LN/AT has to go through 2 CHN pairs, my bet goes to CHN. The stumbling block is MD SF and will LCW go to final and what playing shape will he be in? Unlike SEA, CHN players play well in London, a sweep is probable. I would not bet on it nor bet against it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OneToughBirdie View Post
    ...
    Unlike SEA, CHN players play well in London, a sweep is probable. I would not bet on it nor bet against it.
    Which roughly translates to: hard to fault?

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