Can and will China sweep all 5 golds?

[AlanY]

Can China clean sweep all 5 golds?

Yes, of course they can, same as the other 7 countries that has players in all 5 individual events as it stands now, namely KOR, TPE, INA, JPN, DEN, GER & RUS.

But will they? 64,000 dollars question and all I can say is only 1 country has the realistic chance of doing so.

my assessments, to be review later;

100% for 1 or more
99% for 2 or more
75% for 3 or more
50% for 4 or more, and
less than 10% for all 5.

[Jonc108]

Can China clean sweep all 5 golds?

Yes, of course they can, same as the other 7 countries that has players in all 5 individual events as it stands now, namely KOR, TPE, INA, JPN, DEN, GER & RUS.

But will they? 64,000 dollars question and all I can say is only 1 country has the realistic chance of doing so.

my assessments, to be review later;

100% for 1 or more
99% for 2 or more
75% for 3 or more
50% for 4 or more, and
less than 10% for all 5.

my guess for CHN's chance to win gold medals in OG12:
99% for WS
99% for WD
65% for MS (35% for LD, 30% for CL, 30% for LCW, 5% for others, therefore 65% for CHN)
65% for XD
40% for MD (40% for CY/FHF, 40% for LYD/JJS, 20% for the rest)

therefore chance for CHN to sweep all 5 golds
= 0.99x0.99x0.65x0.65x0.4
= about 16.6%

[pcll99]

XD is the most difficult to predict, since there are so many possibilities (from both Asia and Europe)... there are at least 6 or 7 pairs who can get into the final...

The possibilities are:

1. ZN/ZYL
2. Xu/Ma
3. Natsir/Ahmad
4. LYD/[and whoever]
5. one other Korean pair... either Ko or Yo
6. Nielson/Pedersen... the pair have beaten ZN/ZYL consistently... and have beaten Xu/Ma recently..
7. Tao/Tian... but they may not qualify, since China can only send two pairs...

it is extremely hard to say who will win XD gold since all the Asian pairs also played in MD or WD...

[Jonc108]

XD is the most difficult to predict, since there are so many possibilities (from both Asia and Europe)... there are at least 6 or 7 pairs who can get into the final...

The possibilities are:

1. ZN/ZYL
2. Xu/Ma
3. Natsir/Ahmad
4. LYD/[and whoever]
5. one other Korean pair... either Ko or Yo
6. Nielson/Pedersen... the pair have beaten ZN/ZYL consistently... and have beaten Xu/Ma recently..
7. Tao/Tian... but they may not qualify, since China can only send two pairs...

it is extremely hard to say who will win XD gold since all the Asian pairs also played in MD or WD...

agree with your order, and my guess of chances:
1. ZN/ZYL - 35%
2. XC/MJ - 30%
3. Natsir/Ahmad - 25%
4. LYD/whoever - 5%
the rest - 5%

[pcll99]

is it possible that Nova will partner with Natsir again??? they seem a better chance than Natsir/Ahmad...

Nova/Marissa is also not working very well..

[iSeVeN_Ultimate]

the best chance is LCW, JungJaeSung/LeeYongDae, and Mathias Boe/ Carsten Mogensen. in WS and WD it's almost impossible to stop china winning gold medal. in XD i think still hard to stop Chinesse pair.

[miksss]

is it possible that Nova will partner with Natsir again??? they seem a better chance than Natsir/Ahmad...

Nova/Marissa is also not working very well..

almost no chance for Nova to back with Natsir in OG 2012. Butet will still with Towi. Towi just need to cut down his errors and no panic when trailing.

[SantaSCSI]

- In WS they'll have to plow through 3 Wangs to get the top medal. Also, I think WYH deserves this crown jewel (my opinion).
- WD ... lets be honest ... the chinese pair is a killer combo. hard times ahead.
- In MD I'm putting my money on Boe/Mogensen but they really need to be in top shape and they'll have to work hard.
- In XD on the other hand, I think ZN/ZYL will win, but watch for Nielsen/Pedersen waiting in the bushes.
- MS: if(Super Dan = top shape) then{win} .

although we can try to predict the outcome, I'm more than happy to see some real surprises. You never know what happens when players who "have nothing to lose" are focused and high on spirit.

[Miqilin7]

Just like LYB, he will realistically predict three gold medals sweep from the WD, WS, XD. He can't expect China to be assured of a gold in MS department as the chances are always 50-50 in that category. Needless to say for the MD, everyone is banking on Mogensen and Boe to win it, Cai-Fu could be defeated or upset by any pair we dont know.

If we assume all players up their game during the tournament, I think China is VERY VERY likely to settle for only 2 Gold Medals from WS and WD respectively in a worst case scenario. Chinese XD can be very disappointing as they were a big letdown during the 2008 Beijing Olympics. I guess team China faced a huge responsibility to shoulder prior to the tournament after their successful campaign in WC 2011. Let's see how they cope with the existing and increasing pressure as big favourites for 2012 OG.

[Miqilin7]

After watching the All England, can China perform a clean sweep ?

Answer is straight NO

Starting from Mixed Doubles, again China might need to carry on searching for the true pair that could emulate the success of Zhang Jun and Gao Ling.

ZZ are mentally weak are easily overwhelmed when tables are turned against them..Majin/XuChen are not world beaters and do not have many good wins against most pairs.

Hence, gold is no no for Chinese XD. I am rooting for Indonesia to win this one...the only category which they have a realistic chance of winning

MD on the other hand, it depends a lot on the draw. If Cai/Fu meets Boe/Mogensen in the semis, i believe it's a make or break for them and will be difficult to beat them in London. MD is quite unlikely as well.

MS - 50/50 call, the gold could go to either LCW or LD.

[jkkwongnz]

All England result is one of the worst predictors for to Olympics champions especially for chinese players. If the question is can china perform a clean sweep?

The straight answer is yes. China is certainly the one team has the capability to accomplished this but I think the chance is small.

After watching the All England, can China perform a clean sweep ?

Answer is straight NO

Starting from Mixed Doubles, again China might need to carry on searching for the true pair that could emulate the success of Zhang Jun and Gao Ling.

ZZ are mentally weak are easily overwhelmed when tables are turned against them..Majin/XuChen are not world beaters and do not have many good wins against most pairs.

Hence, gold is no no for Chinese XD. I am rooting for Indonesia to win this one...the only category which they have a realistic chance of winning

MD on the other hand, it depends a lot on the draw. If Cai/Fu meets Boe/Mogensen in the semis, i believe it's a make or break for them and will be difficult to beat them in London. MD is quite unlikely as well.

MS - 50/50 call, the gold could go to either LCW or LD.

[abedeng]

Chances for China:

WD - 100 % - other pairs might as well dream

WS - 99.9% - 0.1% for Saina, Tine Baun, SJH, Schenk, BYJ, the TPE Girls

MS - 75% (50% for LD and 25% for both CJ and CL) - 24% for LCW and 1% for the rest of the World

MD - 40% - and that's only because I think the Chinese top pair is starting to be affected by age. Koreans have 50% and the rest of the World share 10%.

XD - 30% split between the two Chinese pairs. Since practically no top XD pair has actually dominated this season, 60% chance is shared by 5 pairs (INA top pair, 2 Danish pairs, TPE and Korean). The last 10% for rest of the World.

[AlanY]

Chances for China:

WD - 100 % - other pairs might as well dream

WS - 99.9% - 0.1% for Saina, Tine Baun, SJH, Schenk, BYJ, the TPE Girls

MS - 75% (50% for LD and 25% for both CJ and CL) - 24% for LCW and 1% for the rest of the World

MD - 40% - and that's only because I think the Chinese top pair is starting to be affected by age. Koreans have 50% and the rest of the World share 10%.

XD - 30% split between the two Chinese pairs. Since practically no top XD pair has actually dominated this season, 60% chance is shared by 5 pairs (INA top pair, 2 Danish pairs, TPE and Korean). The last 10% for rest of the World.

i wish LYB is as confident as you

[AlanY]

My assessments of China’s probability for 5 golds are;

*

1)***** MS, LD 55%, LCW 35 % and 10% for the rest.

2)***** WS, WYH 40%, WX 40% and 20% for the rest.

3)***** MD, FHF/CY 45, LYD/JJS 45% and 10% for the rest.

4)***** WD, WXL/YY 55%, ZYL/TQ 45%.

5)***** XD, ZN/ZYL, XC/MJ, JF/CP 25% each, TA/LN 20% and 5 % for the rest.

*

Overall of 20.8%, about 1 in 5. That doesn’t sound good but let’s have a look of the second in line, Denmark.

*

1)***** MS, 5%

2)***** WS, 1%

3)***** MD, 10%

4)***** WD, 1%, and

5)***** XD, 25%.

*

That’s about 0.0000125%, i.e. 1 in a million.


Korea also has a similar chance of 1 in a million.

So, 1 in 5 is not that bad after all.

[AlanY]

Ok, its not quite 1 in a million, more like a 1 in 80,000

[bad's fan]

hmm, it would be difficult to make this come true, becoz all the players and nations hunt for the golds. but if they get the proper draws in each categories, plus their players are in form, there are big chance i think? i don't know

[eaglehelang]

Btw AlanY, the latest OG pts calculations from all disciplines, it's not up yet right? Interested to look at the MD & WD