Record of walkover and retired between same country player since 2006

**twobeer** · 10-31-2011, 07:50 PM

Originally Posted by flite

Not necessary true. Why do we need to compare the WO rates of CHN with other countries in the first place? To make CHN look less ugly? If the rest of other nations WO% are as high and when that day comes, the sports of badminton are doomed!

On the other hand, Limsy's findings were based on what has already happened. The statistics and data are all there. Its not the case of some bad lawyer forcing his point through away from the common law. Its all pure facts.

GIVEN that scenario you described, even when the day comes it still wouldn't make CHN looks any better... for that matter.

The tricky thing with statistics is really interpretation. And very often statistics is used to prove something someone "wants to prove"... If you start comparing CHN vs. "others" it will be different results than to comparing for example WO-ratio for indivdual player etc..

If you look for example of the stats for Chen Jin, you will see he hasnt WOed against other Chineee players.. But retired on many occatins against other nations players..

Chen Long has to my knowedge not retired or WOed.

If you look at LDs WO-record things looks Very different!!

So depending on how you interpret the non-WOs of CL, CJ and the many WOs of LD you may come to different conclusions/interpretations..

And of course, even if you break it down to WOs by LD.. He has only WOed/retired 4 times against Chineese players and just 2 times against non-chineese player. So sample size and possibilities of statistical errors are of course HUGE as well.. )If it is some sort of statistical poof we are looking for anyway).

**chris-ccc** · 10-31-2011, 07:51 PM

Originally Posted by twobeer

The number of WOs are statisically a pretty useless measure if not taking into consideration and calculate on how many matchups overall there is between CHN-CHN players. The number of WOs between CHN-CHN players are obviously bound to be bigger as they meet in so many more matches. If you look at the large number of CHN vs. CHN matches in tournaments, there is a very low % of WOs. And it is statisitically hard to draw any certain conclusion based on the very limited sampling of other SAME-SAME country matches which are a very small statistical sampling.

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You have a good point there twobeer when you commented (which is very true);
"The number of WOs between CHN-CHN players are obviously bound to be bigger as they meet in so many more matches".

But when you read this comment from limsy (Post #97);

Originally Posted by limsy

0.48 is the % of china player retired or walkover against non china player (the number or retired/walkover x100 and divide by the total number of the match)
1/207 x 100 = 0.48%

22.22 is the % of china player retired or walkover against china player (the number or retired/walkover x100 and divide by the total number of the match)
4/18 x 100 = 22.22%

which mean,china ms walkover/retired to their own teammate once in every 4 matches(roughly).

the % of retired and walkover/retired to non china player is near to 0%.

you will understand what limsy is saying.

Even before limsy started to work on these statistics, based on current observations, whenever there are CHN-vs-CHN matches, I would say that 1 in 4 matches would end up as a walkover or a retired match. This is rather shocking as I compare Badminton with Tennis. For a RUS-vs-RUS Tennis match, I could expect only 1 in 100 matches that it would end up as a walkover or a retired match.

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**laonong** · 10-31-2011, 08:00 PM

Originally Posted by flite

Not necessary true. Why do we need to compare the WO rates of CHN with other countries in the first place? To make CHN look less ugly? If the rest of other nations WO% are as high and when that day comes, the sports of badminton are doomed!

On the other hand, Limsy's findings were based on what has already happened. The statistics and data are all there. Its not the case of some bad lawyer forcing his point through away from the common law. Its all pure facts.

GIVEN that scenario you described, even when the day comes it still wouldn't make CHN looks any better... for that matter.

Rates is an important measure for comparison of two groups if you want to see the difference. In this thread, Limsy want to show the Chinese players has higher possibility of WOs than other countries. So we need a rate of WO per country if the sample size is large enough for the comparison.

Just like some medical researchers claim that smoker causes lung cancer and Tobacco company disagree. So you need to compare the lung cancer rates between smokers and non-smokers. You need to find big population for both groups.

**laonong** · 10-31-2011, 08:06 PM

Only if rates for other countries is totally different then you can claim that China players are more likely to WO.

**twobeer** · 10-31-2011, 08:27 PM

Originally Posted by limsy

this is for china ms,2011

total	against other country player	against own country player
play until finish	207	18
retired or walkover	1	4
%	0.48%	22.22%

and this is for china ws,2011

total	against other country player	against own country player
play until finish	181	27
retired or walkover	3	7
%	1.66%	25.9%

obviously u didnt read the 93th and 94th in this thread
if what u say in bold is true
then the walkover and retired against non china player should larger since the ratio of china vs non china opponent is 18:207 for ms and 27:181

First of your math is plain wrong..

4 WOs out of 22 matches is 18,18%
7 WOs out of 34 matches is 20,59%

Secondly.. I think anyone that been studying up on statiscis know that based on these small samples here could be big statistical errors. And further more as has pointed out earlier.. Even if it DOES indicate that WO against a national team-meber is more likely than WO against a player from another cuntry, there really is not anything based on the statistiscs that would point to that this is unique for CHN.

Just an example based on your own statistics, that should underline the problem with small statistical samples...

Germany

total	against own country player
play until finish	0
retired or walkover	1
%	100% (infinite% with you calculus)

Does this prove that Germany is the worst WO kings???

**laonong** · 10-31-2011, 08:38 PM

Sample size is too small for Germany.

**twobeer** · 10-31-2011, 08:40 PM

Originally Posted by laonong

Sample size is too small for Germany.

Yes, and too small for China as well, that is my point

/T

**laonong** · 10-31-2011, 08:59 PM

Tennis is individual sports while badminton is team sports.

Rus players are playing for themselves: big bonus and sponsor money.

**chris-ccc** · 10-31-2011, 09:37 PM

Originally Posted by laonong

Tennis is individual sports while badminton is team sports.

Rus players are playing for themselves: big bonus and sponsor money.

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So... we now have an explanation as to why Chinese teammates often give walkovers to each other.

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**lucida** · 10-31-2011, 10:42 PM

To dicide whether to give a walkover, the player has to consider the chance to win. If some player is injured but the opponent is weak, he may choose to play. But if his opponent is too strong, he will consider twice about it, because more severe injury may happen. Some people say Roger Federer has received too many walkovers. The reasons are complicated, but you have to admit his opponents would think more before the match.
Tian Qing/Zhao Yunlei received a walkover from a Korean pair. If their opponent is not a Chinese pair, would they still do that? I won't deny some matched are "fixed", but it's really not that common.
And don't forget there are many retirements from Chinese players to foreign players in this French Open.

**flite** · 11-01-2011, 02:49 AM

Originally Posted by twobeer

The tricky thing with statistics is really interpretation. And very often statistics is used to prove something someone "wants to prove"... If you start comparing CHN vs. "others" it will be different results than to comparing for example WO-ratio for indivdual player etc..

If you look for example of the stats for Chen Jin, you will see he hasnt WOed against other Chineee players.. But retired on many occatins against other nations players..

Chen Long has to my knowedge not retired or WOed.

If you look at LDs WO-record things looks Very different!!

So depending on how you interpret the non-WOs of CL, CJ and the many WOs of LD you may come to different conclusions/interpretations..

And of course, even if you break it down to WOs by LD.. He has only WOed/retired 4 times against Chineese players and just 2 times against non-chineese player. So sample size and possibilities of statistical errors are of course HUGE as well.. )If it is some sort of statistical poof we are looking for anyway).

Statistic are based on historical facts. The number of times/frequency certain events took place. LD winning records in all tournaments so far compared to other players are statistic too.

So based on your argument of how all the calculation should work out, LD number doesn't look as good as it was LMAO!!

Originally Posted by laonong

Rates is an important measure for comparison of two groups if you want to see the difference. In this thread, Limsy want to show the Chinese players has higher possibility of WOs than other countries. So we need a rate of WO per country if the sample size is large enough for the comparison.

Just like some medical researchers claim that smoker causes lung cancer and Tobacco company disagree. So you need to compare the lung cancer rates between smokers and non-smokers. You need to find big population for both groups.

I know there are plenty of people who are still being ignorant that tobacco is hazardous to health. They chose to ignore all the facts given where they can see with their own eyes.

So there is nothing we could do with this group of people HERE.

**Yoppy** · 11-01-2011, 05:41 AM

Originally Posted by twobeer

Yes, and too small for China as well, that is my point

/T

You still dont get the point or pretend to dont get it? I dont know. Go back to your campus and ask your statictic lecturer, and he says that Limsy stat and conclusion is wrong, then he should be sacked from the uni.

You many times pointed that we are bias fans of LCW (which is not entirely true) making all sort of accusations. But actually it is very clear now that in the face of clear cut stat results that someone like you is clearly a bias fan of CHN team. Not to mention your very favourite brand is Li Ning.

So how about this, lets stop pointing your finger of us being biased and get down to the very fact and objective discussion? Shall we?

**laonong** · 11-01-2011, 08:56 AM

Originally Posted by chris-ccc

.
So... we now have an explanation as to why Chinese teammates often give walkovers to each other.

.

I thought you knew

**laonong** · 11-01-2011, 08:57 AM

I do not think you understand statistics. Grab some basic statistic books or google

**laonong** · 11-01-2011, 08:59 AM

Originally Posted by flite

Statistic are based on historical facts. The number of times/frequency certain events took place. LD winning records in all tournaments so far compared to other players are statistic too.

So based on your argument of how all the calculation should work out, LD number doesn't look as good as it was LMAO!!

I know there are plenty of people who are still being ignorant that tobacco is hazardous to health. They chose to ignore all the facts given where they can see with their own eyes.

So there is nothing we could do with this group of people HERE.

I do not think you understand statistics. Grab some basic statistic books or google

**limsy** · 11-01-2011, 10:34 AM

Originally Posted by twobeer

First of your math is plain wrong..

4 WOs out of 22 matches is 18,18%
7 WOs out of 34 matches is 20,59%

Secondly.. I think anyone that been studying up on statiscis know that based on these small samples here could be big statistical errors. And further more as has pointed out earlier.. Even if it DOES indicate that WO against a national team-meber is more likely than WO against a player from another cuntry, there really is not anything based on the statistiscs that would point to that this is unique for CHN.

Just an example based on your own statistics, that should underline the problem with small statistical samples...

Germany

total	against own country player
play until finish	0
retired or walkover	1
%	100% (infinite% with you calculus)

Does this prove that Germany is the worst WO kings???

ops,the total match between china and china for ms and ws was 18 and 27,i made a mistake theres
sorry

**eaglehelang** · 11-01-2011, 10:37 AM

Originally Posted by twobeer

Does this prove that Germany is the worst WO kings???

Please do the calculations & do up a table from 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 & see for yourself. Historically,etc, as a country, on China's percentage of walkover & retired. It's higher than other countries, doesnt take a math genius to know that. It's much faster to calculate those from other countries cos just click, click - "oh, played all, ok, done"

It's no point you argue sample too small lah, China meet own team mates more cos they have more strong players lah, etc,etc. Even if calculate last 5 to 6 years, China's trend is same. You can accept or not accept, the percentage is such.