from the outlook so far, Chen Jin isn't doing too well to get himself qualified in the Olympics. what happens if he fails? China will likely be left with LD and CL at the top 4, with probably Gade or Taufik filling in the last spot. while Gade and Taufik isn't the biggest challenge to CL / LD, China for sure want to give LCW a 1 2 hits on LCW's potential route to the finals. it will be disasterous ala 2000 WS if LD and CL ended up in the same half giving LCW a free reign at his half. however, with CL/LD at number 2 / 3 spots, that means there is a 50% chance CL/LD will be at the same half. so what's the right strategy? they need CL / LD in 3rd/4th. that guarantees that they will end up in different half, so LCW will have to meet both of them on this route to the final, hopefully one of them will be knock him out of contention. LCW on the other hand, has little control over his destiny, regardless of what position he is in.
Interesting, there's a long way to go. Of course Chen Jin should be at the Olympics if the rules were in any way sensible, and Pengyu as well, the top players should all be there. Taufik won't feature in the top 5 on current form, by the end of the year he may not be top ten. In the Olympic qualifying period before Denmark he is averaging only 4000 points over 7 events. I don't think China will be in a position to have players at 3,4 although it would suit them. Their main hope is that Gade falls off and Chen Jin is able to catch up. Its possible but unlikely as Gade seems to be the most consistent player. In the last 9 months I think has only lost to CL,LD,LCW and seems to have tactics for dispatching all the other potentially dangerous early round opponents. But LCW seems to have dropped off since the Worlds. Before then he was starting to look unbeatable but now, even apart from the losses to CL he has been pushed close by Tago and Gade. Where as we all know LD can turn it on when he really wants to LCW form will be a worry.
There's still a long way to go before the final positions are determined. I'm sure CHN will do their damndest to get CJ into the 4th spot, thus qualifying 3 players. With TH falling off the map, it looks like a straight fight between CJ and OG, with PG holding the upper hand at the moment. Expect the CHN brass to go into full manipulation mode to achieve this goal. It's more of a team game for them now than ever before. PG's performance has been consistent; reaching the SF each time keeps him in the top 4. CJ really needs to turn it on and hope PG falters in a few tournaments.
in a way, CJ is disposable. if CJ managed to get in and occupying the 4th spot and LD/CL at 2/3, the situation isn't much better. there is still a possibility that CL/LD will end up in the same half. if LYB is ruthless he will sacrifice CJ and let CL/LD into 3/4. fit PG into 2nd or something.
No..it wont happen..no matter whatLD and CL will be either top or bottom part of the draw..CJ will be with LD or LCW if LCW and LD are top 1 and 2...if LCW and CL are top 1 and 2 then LD will be on LCW side and CJ will be on CL
extracts from SECTION 6 B OLYMPIC GAMES REGULATIONS FOR BADMINTON COMPETITION 4.1. Entries from any one NOC shall be drawn as follows: 4.1.1. the first and second ranked entries by lot in opposite halves of the draw; 4.1.2. the third ranked entry by lot in one of the two remaining quarters / groups; Subject to confirmation from IOC Olympic Games Part III – Section 6 B Olympic Games 4 Updated: 18 June 2010 4.1.3. the ranking of entries from an NOC can be amended by the seeding. If this is done a new ranking order is implicitly established and should be used for the purposes of Regulation 4.1. lets say CHN has 2 qualified with LD ahead of CL, rule 4.1.1 dictates that they will be in opposite halves, if CHN has 3 and assume the seeding as 1 LCW 2 LD 3 CL 4 CJ. LCW in top half, LD in bottom, CL as the 2nd rank will be in the top, and CJ in the bottom. can someone confirm if the interpretations of the rules is correct or not?
so, if LCW is seed 1, irrespect of CHN has 2 or 3 qualified he will play CHN No2 in SF. if LCW is seed 2, he will also play CHN No2 in SF, if LCW is seed 3, he still has to play CHN No2 in SF.
Will the Group Play thingy make a difference? In terms of making it less predictable http://www.bwfbadminton.org/file_download.aspx?id=22472 3. Method of Competition 3.1. The competition shall be played in two stages – Group Play stage and Knock-out stage 3.2. The draw for the Competition, at which each competing Member Association may be represented, shall be made as per the date lines set in the General Competition Regulations. 3.3. Group play stage 3.3.1. Initially, the players / pairs will play in groups, as below, where all players / pairs in a given group play each other. A final overall ranking order for each group shall be achieved (See diagram below). Events No. of Groups Maximum players / pairs in each Group Singles 16 4 Doubles 4 4 ......... 3.3.2. The participating players / pairs will be ranked based on the latest published World Ranking list prior to the seeding date. 3.3.3. Draw Singles: 3.3.3.1. The seeded players shall be placed at top of each group as follows: a) No. 1 placed at the top of Group A b) No. 2 placed at the top of Group P c) No. 3 and 4 drawn by lot at the top of Groups E and L. d) No. 5 to 8 drawn by lot at the top of Group C, G, J and N. e) No. 9 to 16 drawn by lot at the top of the remaining groups. 3.4. Knock-out stage Singles: 3.4.1. Top ranked player from each group of the Group Play Stage will qualify for this stage. 3.4.2. The draw for the Knock-out stage will be, as below, and the winners in each group will be placed at the pre-designated places in the draw: ...... Sorry, cant seem to copy the tables & draw chart over
From the bolded statement, I interpret it as the 3rd ranked player can be placed in either the top or bottom half. So, in your example: LCW at the top, LD at the bottom, CL either top or bottom, CJ takes the slot unoccupied by CL
but 4.1.1 already put MS1 and MS2 in opposite halves, i.e. 3 out of 4 places already occupied, therefore CJ should be in bottom half with LD, right? i think 4.1.2 will only utilise for this example if LCW at No 3 or 4, then CJ/LCW can be top or bottom.
4.1.1 places only the first 2 players. Therefore 1) LCW = top, 2) LD = bottom 4.1.2 "the third ranked entry by lot in one of the two remaining quarters / groups" Therefore 3) CL gets placed randomly, so he could end up in either LD's or LCW's half. By default, 4) CJ goes into the half unoccupied by CL. That's my interpretation.
lets bring another spanner to the work. 4.1.1. the first and second ranked entries by lot in opposite halves of the draw; with 4.1.1 MS2 CL can ended up with 2nd seed and MS1 LD as 3rd seed, then CJ will be in CL's half
Looks like there are 16 groups before the knock out stage. For PG to likely medal, he s gotta be in top 4. That is, only 2 CHN MS. He s gonna require help from other non-CHN MS to do that. It s possible.
if PG win a title or two before next May it's almost certain for him to be in top 4, read this http://www.badmintoncentral.com/forums/showthread.php/104036-2011-French-Open-what-if-..... feel free to chip in
I think you guys may be misinterpreting the rules. When they say 'seed' they mean the seed in the prospective country, not world rankings.The numbers one and two players IN China get an automatic berth, in opposite sides of the draw.Am I reading this wrong?
