User Tag List

Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 LastLast
Results 1 to 17 of 44
  1. #1
    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    England
    Posts
    4,294
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    7 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default 2011 Hong Kong Open, what if .....

    Follow on the thread (http://www.badmintoncentral.com/foru......) regarding qualification for OLY next year; this is the MS top of table at week 26 of 52 just before the HK Open.

    Rank Country Player Points No of tournaments
    1 MAS Lee Chong Wei 64197 7
    2 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 55912 8
    3 CHN Lin Dan 55576 8
    4 CHN Chen Long 55320 8
    5 CHN Chen Jin 55200 9
    6 JPN Sho Sasaki 53326 11
    7 VIE Tien Minh Nguyen 49259 11
    8 CHN Wang Zhengming 39290 9
    9 KOR Lee Hyun Il 38920 11
    10 GER Marc Zwiebler 37946 13

    PG is at No 2 with 700 points ahead of CJ at No 5; both are seeded to meet at the QF stage. Barring any injuries Iím expecting CJ who is 10 years younger and has a head to head record of 7-3 against PG to win this QF battle. On the top half of the draw LCW is seeded to meet LD at the SF stage. LD has a much superior head to head against LCW, even more so for the matches in China/HK. They had played 7 times so far and it was a total whitewash and I expect LD to win this one as well.

    Scenario 1, CJ to beat PG and into the final.

    Rank Country Player Points No of tournaments
    1 MAS Lee Chong Wei 70617 8
    2 CHN Lin Dan 64776 9
    3 CHN Chen Jin 63000 10
    4 CHN Chen Long 61740 9
    5 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 60953 9
    6 JPN Sho Sasaki 53326 11
    7 VIE Tien Minh Nguyen 49259 11
    8 CHN Wang Zhengming 39290 9
    9 KOR Lee Hyun Il 38920 11
    10 GER Marc Zwiebler 37946 13

    Scenario 2, CJ to beat PG and into the SF.

    Rank Country Player Points No of tournaments
    1 MAS Lee Chong Wei 70617 8
    2 CHN Lin Dan 64776 9
    3 CHN Chen Long 63120 9
    4 CHN Chen Jin 61620 10
    5 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 60953 9
    6 JPN Sho Sasaki 53326 11
    7 VIE Tien Minh Nguyen 49259 11
    8 CHN Wang Zhengming 39290 9
    9 KOR Lee Hyun Il 38920 11
    10 GER Marc Zwiebler 37946 13

    Scenario 3, PG to beat CJ at the QF.

    Rank Country Player Points No of tournaments
    1 MAS Lee Chong Wei 70617 8
    2 CHN Lin Dan 64776 9
    3 CHN Chen Long 63120 9
    4 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 62333 9
    5 CHN Chen Jin 60240 10
    6 JPN Sho Sasaki 53326 11
    7 VIE Tien Minh Nguyen 49259 11
    8 CHN Wang Zhengming 39290 9
    9 KOR Lee Hyun Il 38920 11
    10 GER Marc Zwiebler 37946 13

    Both scenarios 1 and 2 will put all 3 CHN MS ahead of PG after this tournament. Scenario 3 is probably the worst situation for CHN to field all 3 MS next year, even that is only 2000 points between PG and CJ!
    Last edited by AlanY; 11-07-2011 at 06:40 AM.

  2. Thanks kwun thanked for this post
  3. #2
    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    England
    Posts
    4,294
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    7 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default

    WS is quite interesting as well.

    This is the table at the top before the HK Open.

    Rank Country Player Points No of tournaments
    1 CHN Wang Xin 64794 9
    2 CHN Wang Yihan 58050 7
    3 GER Juliane Schenk 56374 11
    4 IND Saina Nehwal 56057 10
    5 TPE Cheng Shao Chieh 51467 12
    6 CHN Wang Shixian 50067 8
    7 DEN Tine Baun 49017 10
    8 TPE Tai Tzu Ying 47847 13
    9 KOR Sung Ji Hyun 44841 11
    10 JPN Sayaka Sato 44640 14

    WSX is hitting a bad patch at the moment and hopefully it will turn around soonest. If they are all playing to their seeding suggested the table after HK Open will look like this;

    Rank Country Player Points No of tournaments
    1 CHN Wang Xin 71214 10
    2 CHN Wang Yihan 67250 8
    3 IND Saina Nehwal 58877 11
    4 CHN Wang Shixian 57867 9
    5 GER Juliane Schenk 57564 12
    6 TPE Cheng Shao Chieh 53787 13
    7 DEN Tine Baun 52387 11
    8 TPE Tai Tzu Ying 47847 14
    9 KOR Sung Ji Hyun 44841 12
    10 JPN Sayaka Sato 44640 15

    For the first time CHN has 3 WS in the top 4.

  4. #3
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Metro Manila Philippines
    Posts
    74
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default

    Excellent infos Bro! Many thanks. What about the Men's Doubles?

  5. #4
    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    England
    Posts
    4,294
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    7 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

  6. #5
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    26
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default Anyone pay attention to Wang Zhengming?

    I watched few games of his this year, I think this kid has potential. His height is 1.83m. He is quick, as explosive as Lin Dan, his defense is pretty good. However, he has many unforced errors. Give him couple of years, he will be a force.

    I watched few games of Chen Long as well. Boy, he is so much better now. I think he is probably better than LCW now. Usually for a tall player, he is slower, but that's not the case for Chen Long. Chen long is lightening fast, and his defense is just as good as LCW, who has the best defense in the world.

    3 top guys, LD, CL, LCW. I think CL is slightly better than LCW. As for LD, I don't know how good he is now. Maybe LD is indeed on the decline, or maybe he is just hiding his capability.

  7. #6
    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    England
    Posts
    4,294
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    7 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default

    As expected, Chen Jin delivered when it mattered and eliminated PG at QF. Just like 2008 Thomas Cup SF won the last single played while injured.
    After the HK Open all LYB’s 3 golden boys will be ahead of PG for the OLY qualification.

  8. #7
    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    England
    Posts
    4,294
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    7 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default

    As expected, the whitewash against LCW continues.

  9. #8
    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    England
    Posts
    4,294
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    7 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default

    Here are the OLY points at the top for the MS and WS after HK Open, for the first time CHN has fulfilled the maximum 3 MS and WS. It looks quite rosy at the moment but still has 1 final hurdle as far as the MS is concerned, the SS Finals in December. The finals are for the top 8 with a caveat that only 2 maximum from each country. So, PG should be back to the top 4 after the SSF. What CHN needed is to send the one missed out on the SSF to a GP Gold tíment and pick up the 7000 points instead.

    1 MAS Lee Chong Wei 70617 8
    2 CHN Lin Dan 64776 9
    3 CHN Chen Jin 63000 10
    4 CHN Chen Long 61740 9
    5 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 60953 9
    6 JPN Sho Sasaki 53326 12
    7 VIE Tien Minh Nguyen 49259 11
    8 GER Marc Zwiebler 39326 14

    1 CHN Wang Xin 73994 10
    2 CHN Wang Yihan 64470 8
    3 IND Saina Nehwal 57497 11
    4 CHN Wang Shixian 56487 9
    5 GER Juliane Schenk 56374 12
    6 DEN Tine Baun 55147 11
    7 TPE Cheng Shao Chieh 53787 13
    8 TPE Tai Tzu Ying 47847 13

  10. #9
    Administrator kwun's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Santa Clara, California, United States
    Posts
    35,348
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    43 Post(s)
    Tagged
    2 Thread(s)

    Default

    CJ takes the credit for taking out PG in the quarter. and CL takes credit for losing to CJ in the semi.

    the Chinese plan seems to be coming together now.

  11. #10
    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    England
    Posts
    4,294
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    7 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default

    not tried to blow one's own trumpet.
    aren't those 2 tables look very similar?

    Quote Originally Posted by AlanY View Post

    Scenario 1, CJ to beat PG and into the final.

    Rank Country Player Points No of tournaments
    1 MAS Lee Chong Wei 70617 8
    2 CHN Lin Dan 64776 9
    3 CHN Chen Jin 63000 10
    4 CHN Chen Long 61740 9
    5 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 60953 9
    6 JPN Sho Sasaki 53326 11
    7 VIE Tien Minh Nguyen 49259 11
    8 CHN Wang Zhengming 39290 9
    9 KOR Lee Hyun Il 38920 11
    10 GER Marc Zwiebler 37946 13
    Quote Originally Posted by AlanY View Post
    Here are the OLY points at the top for the MS and WS after HK Open, for the first time CHN has fulfilled the maximum 3 MS and WS. It looks quite rosy at the moment but still has 1 final hurdle as far as the MS is concerned, the SS Finals in December. The finals are for the top 8 with a caveat that only 2 maximum from each country. So, PG should be back to the top 4 after the SSF. What CHN needed is to send the one missed out on the SSF to a GP Gold t’ment and pick up the 7000 points instead.

    1 MAS Lee Chong Wei 70617 8
    2 CHN Lin Dan 64776 9
    3 CHN Chen Jin 63000 10
    4 CHN Chen Long 61740 9
    5 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 60953 9
    6 JPN Sho Sasaki 53326 12
    7 VIE Tien Minh Nguyen 49259 11
    8 GER Marc Zwiebler 39326 14

  12. Likes LD rules!, Blitzzards, kwun liked this post
  13. #11
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    NZ
    Posts
    291
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by AlanY View Post
    not tried to blow one's own trumpet.
    aren't those 2 tables look very similar?
    Would be impressed if you only listed one scenario and stated that this would be it. Otherwise, predict enough outcomes and one will come true ;p

  14. Likes LD rules! liked this post
  15. #12
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    los angeles
    Posts
    93
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default

    this whole charade is to prevent chinese from winning. y change the rules in the first place.

  16. #13
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Location
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    Posts
    2,125
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    1 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default

    I have to point out that sometime numbers cheat, especially without fully understanding the number.

    There are some issues with CJ's points and some fatal weakness in his draw positions. For example, comparing CJ's sum of 10 with PG's sum of 9, is not fair. The fact is, still, that CJ's the points strength is not as strong as PG's.

    As I worried, after Japan open, that LD could be one of the 4 biggest obstacles hindering CJ. It's verified at both French open and Hong Kong open.

  17. #14
    Regular Member undeadshot's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    马来西亚
    Posts
    8,278
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 2cents View Post
    I have to point out that sometime numbers cheat, especially without fully understanding the number.

    There are some issues with CJ's points and some fatal weakness in his draw positions. For example, comparing CJ's sum of 10 with PG's sum of 9, is not fair. The fact is, still, that CJ's the points strength is not as strong as PG's.

    As I worried, after Japan open, that LD could be one of the 4 biggest obstacles hindering CJ. It's verified at both French open and Hong Kong open.
    PG might be a tournament behind and 3000 points behind which he should catch up with an extra tournament, but it just requires CJ to outperform his old performance in another tournament to win, doesn't it? It shouldn't be difficult with help for China. Win a title to replace a QF position or something. Of course he has to make sure that he doesn't get bundled out of the early rounds.

  18. #15
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Location
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    Posts
    2,125
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    1 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by undeadshot View Post
    PG might be a tournament behind and 3000 points behind which he should catch up with an extra tournament, but it just requires CJ to outperform his old performance in another tournament to win, doesn't it? It shouldn't be difficult with help for China. Win a title to replace a QF position or something. Of course he has to make sure that he doesn't get bundled out of the early rounds.
    CJ collected many QF points 5090 because of his 5th seed, while PG got too many SF points 6450. A the #4 seed, PG always enjoys easy ride to the SF. The real gap between the good points of Cj and Pg are huge. In the future, pg will continue enjoying his easy ride to the semi final, while cj has to fight hard against ld,lcw,cl in the quieter finals.

    pg is in a much better position for both the existing points and future draws.

  19. #16
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Location
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    Posts
    2,125
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    1 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default

    Thanks to Alan building the route for CJ to the Olympics. Let's see how CJ executes Alan's plan (the first SS after Alan's plan):


    P Gade Chen Jin Lin Dan Chen Long
    China Open QF W SF RU
    SSF SF QF QF W
    Korean SF QF RU SF
    All England SF QF W SF
    Hong Kong SF -> QF W -> RU -> W RU -> SF
    Malaysia SF RU QF SF
    India SF SF W


    Alan might predict LD skip or wo at HK, instead LD won the title.

    Alan predicted PG SF and CJ the winner, actually they were in the same semi which mean only 1 of them can advance to the sei. So PG is just a QF, and CJ ended up RU. Very close. prediction for CJ

    Since PG has so many 6450 points, so he doesn't need SF in SS. He needs SF in SSP which is 7700 points. Alan knew that, so he gave PG only QF at China open. But PG has an easy draw at China open, he would collect his 7700 points easily by beating Taufic.

    CJ failed to win HK open (predicted by Alan). Can CJ do it at China open? He has to square off with CL in quarter final, it sounds difficult to win at least in my opinion.

    Without winning any title, without wining against any top 5 players, PG did pretty good at SSP. He collected his biggest points 9350 at Ina by defeating SS, and 7700 points at Denmark by defeating Zwiebler.

    CJ did defeat LD, CL and PG and also won the Singapore, but his highest point from SSP is only 6050. That's the huge distance between him and PG.

    China open will automatically grant PG another 7700 points for his reserver SF position. CJ could end up the same 6050 points which is useless.

    CJ has to keep collecting 7000+ points to stay alive; while PG just needs 1 or 2 7000+ points to shut down CJ completely.

    Most people believe that China can get whatever they want by fixing the game. Actually, the reality is that China fixing the game because they CANNOT get what they want.

    People thought China can get anything once they have the home court advantage. But the reality is that the draw was drawn by BWF's "magic" software.

    Just check the draw, we already know that it's impossible that CJ, CL and LD won the top 3 positions at China open. That's the perfect example I said the power of draw. No matter how strong those players are, how dirty China play their tricks, how bad China cheats, they just simply cannot get that results. Most specifically, only 1, either CJ or CL, not both can advance passing the quarter final. At least one of them (CJ, CL) can earn no more than 6000 points at China open.


    Originally Posted by AlanY
    OK, here is the scenario with 7 PSS/SS + SSF left until May next year;

    P Gade Chen Jin Lin Dan Chen Long
    French R2 QF SF RU
    China Open QF W SF RU
    SSF SF QF QF W
    Korean SF QF RU SF
    All England SF QF W SF
    Hong Kong SF W RU
    Malaysia SF RU QF SF
    India SF SF W



    OK, Chen Jin get your flights and hotel booked now.


  20. #17
    Regular Member
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Location
    Blue planet
    Posts
    1,342
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Default

    Don't forget that at Super Series Final, only 2 players from China can play. If Chen Jin is not entered, there goes his chances to collect 7000+ points easily. Meanwhile, PG most likely would be in semi final in Super Series final.

Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. 2011 Hong Kong Open SS: Round 2 Thu 17-Nov
    By chris-ccc in forum Hong Kong Open / China Open 2011
    Replies: 120
    : 11-17-2011, 11:03 PM
  2. 2011 Hong Kong Open SS: Round 1 Wed 16-Nov
    By chris-ccc in forum Hong Kong Open / China Open 2011
    Replies: 156
    : 11-16-2011, 10:22 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •