11-07-2011, 07:34 AM #1
2011 Hong Kong Open, what if .....
Follow on the thread (http://www.badmintoncentral.com/foru......) regarding qualification for OLY next year; this is the MS top of table at week 26 of 52 just before the HK Open.
Rank Country Player Points No of tournaments 1 MAS Lee Chong Wei 64197 7 2 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 55912 8 3 CHN Lin Dan 55576 8 4 CHN Chen Long 55320 8 5 CHN Chen Jin 55200 9 6 JPN Sho Sasaki 53326 11 7 VIE Tien Minh Nguyen 49259 11 8 CHN Wang Zhengming 39290 9 9 KOR Lee Hyun Il 38920 11 10 GER Marc Zwiebler 37946 13
PG is at No 2 with 700 points ahead of CJ at No 5; both are seeded to meet at the QF stage. Barring any injuries Iím expecting CJ who is 10 years younger and has a head to head record of 7-3 against PG to win this QF battle. On the top half of the draw LCW is seeded to meet LD at the SF stage. LD has a much superior head to head against LCW, even more so for the matches in China/HK. They had played 7 times so far and it was a total whitewash and I expect LD to win this one as well.
Scenario 1, CJ to beat PG and into the final.
Rank Country Player Points No of tournaments 1 MAS Lee Chong Wei 70617 8 2 CHN Lin Dan 64776 9 3 CHN Chen Jin 63000 10 4 CHN Chen Long 61740 9 5 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 60953 9 6 JPN Sho Sasaki 53326 11 7 VIE Tien Minh Nguyen 49259 11 8 CHN Wang Zhengming 39290 9 9 KOR Lee Hyun Il 38920 11 10 GER Marc Zwiebler 37946 13
Scenario 2, CJ to beat PG and into the SF.
Rank Country Player Points No of tournaments 1 MAS Lee Chong Wei 70617 8 2 CHN Lin Dan 64776 9 3 CHN Chen Long 63120 9 4 CHN Chen Jin 61620 10 5 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 60953 9 6 JPN Sho Sasaki 53326 11 7 VIE Tien Minh Nguyen 49259 11 8 CHN Wang Zhengming 39290 9 9 KOR Lee Hyun Il 38920 11 10 GER Marc Zwiebler 37946 13
Scenario 3, PG to beat CJ at the QF.
Rank Country Player Points No of tournaments 1 MAS Lee Chong Wei 70617 8 2 CHN Lin Dan 64776 9 3 CHN Chen Long 63120 9 4 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 62333 9 5 CHN Chen Jin 60240 10 6 JPN Sho Sasaki 53326 11 7 VIE Tien Minh Nguyen 49259 11 8 CHN Wang Zhengming 39290 9 9 KOR Lee Hyun Il 38920 11 10 GER Marc Zwiebler 37946 13
Both scenarios 1 and 2 will put all 3 CHN MS ahead of PG after this tournament. Scenario 3 is probably the worst situation for CHN to field all 3 MS next year, even that is only 2000 points between PG and CJ!
Last edited by AlanY; 11-07-2011 at 07:40 AM.
kwun thanked for this post
11-07-2011, 07:38 AM #2
WS is quite interesting as well.
This is the table at the top before the HK Open.
Rank Country Player Points No of tournaments 1 CHN Wang Xin 64794 9 2 CHN Wang Yihan 58050 7 3 GER Juliane Schenk 56374 11 4 IND Saina Nehwal 56057 10 5 TPE Cheng Shao Chieh 51467 12 6 CHN Wang Shixian 50067 8 7 DEN Tine Baun 49017 10 8 TPE Tai Tzu Ying 47847 13 9 KOR Sung Ji Hyun 44841 11 10 JPN Sayaka Sato 44640 14
WSX is hitting a bad patch at the moment and hopefully it will turn around soonest. If they are all playing to their seeding suggested the table after HK Open will look like this;
Rank Country Player Points No of tournaments 1 CHN Wang Xin 71214 10 2 CHN Wang Yihan 67250 8 3 IND Saina Nehwal 58877 11 4 CHN Wang Shixian 57867 9 5 GER Juliane Schenk 57564 12 6 TPE Cheng Shao Chieh 53787 13 7 DEN Tine Baun 52387 11 8 TPE Tai Tzu Ying 47847 14 9 KOR Sung Ji Hyun 44841 12 10 JPN Sayaka Sato 44640 15
For the first time CHN has 3 WS in the top 4.
11-07-2011, 07:18 PM #3
Excellent infos Bro! Many thanks. What about the Men's Doubles?
11-08-2011, 02:54 AM #4
11-11-2011, 01:30 PM #5
Anyone pay attention to Wang Zhengming?
I watched few games of his this year, I think this kid has potential. His height is 1.83m. He is quick, as explosive as Lin Dan, his defense is pretty good. However, he has many unforced errors. Give him couple of years, he will be a force.
I watched few games of Chen Long as well. Boy, he is so much better now. I think he is probably better than LCW now. Usually for a tall player, he is slower, but that's not the case for Chen Long. Chen long is lightening fast, and his defense is just as good as LCW, who has the best defense in the world.
3 top guys, LD, CL, LCW. I think CL is slightly better than LCW. As for LD, I don't know how good he is now. Maybe LD is indeed on the decline, or maybe he is just hiding his capability.
11-19-2011, 12:46 AM #6
As expected, Chen Jin delivered when it mattered and eliminated PG at QF. Just like 2008 Thomas Cup SF won the last single played while injured.
After the HK Open all LYB’s 3 golden boys will be ahead of PG for the OLY qualification.
11-19-2011, 01:44 AM #7
As expected, the whitewash against LCW continues.
11-20-2011, 03:38 AM #8
Here are the OLY points at the top for the MS and WS after HK Open, for the first time CHN has fulfilled the maximum 3 MS and WS. It looks quite rosy at the moment but still has 1 final hurdle as far as the MS is concerned, the SS Finals in December. The finals are for the top 8 with a caveat that only 2 maximum from each country. So, PG should be back to the top 4 after the SSF. What CHN needed is to send the one missed out on the SSF to a GP Gold tíment and pick up the 7000 points instead.
1 MAS Lee Chong Wei 70617 8 2 CHN Lin Dan 64776 9 3 CHN Chen Jin 63000 10 4 CHN Chen Long 61740 9 5 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 60953 9 6 JPN Sho Sasaki 53326 12 7 VIE Tien Minh Nguyen 49259 11 8 GER Marc Zwiebler 39326 14
1 CHN Wang Xin 73994 10 2 CHN Wang Yihan 64470 8 3 IND Saina Nehwal 57497 11 4 CHN Wang Shixian 56487 9 5 GER Juliane Schenk 56374 12 6 DEN Tine Baun 55147 11 7 TPE Cheng Shao Chieh 53787 13 8 TPE Tai Tzu Ying 47847 13
11-20-2011, 03:43 AM #9
CJ takes the credit for taking out PG in the quarter. and CL takes credit for losing to CJ in the semi.
the Chinese plan seems to be coming together now.
11-20-2011, 05:42 AM #10
11-20-2011, 07:32 AM #11
LD rules! liked this post
11-20-2011, 03:10 PM #12
this whole charade is to prevent chinese from winning. y change the rules in the first place.
11-20-2011, 04:01 PM #13
I have to point out that sometime numbers cheat, especially without fully understanding the number.
There are some issues with CJ's points and some fatal weakness in his draw positions. For example, comparing CJ's sum of 10 with PG's sum of 9, is not fair. The fact is, still, that CJ's the points strength is not as strong as PG's.
As I worried, after Japan open, that LD could be one of the 4 biggest obstacles hindering CJ. It's verified at both French open and Hong Kong open.
11-20-2011, 09:35 PM #14
11-20-2011, 10:27 PM #15
pg is in a much better position for both the existing points and future draws.
11-21-2011, 12:57 PM #16Thanks to Alan building the route for CJ to the Olympics. Let's see how CJ executes Alan's plan (the first SS after Alan's plan):
P Gade Chen Jin Lin Dan Chen Long China Open QF W SF RU SSF SF QF QF W Korean SF QF RU SF All England SF QF W SF Hong Kong SF -> QF W -> RU -> W RU -> SF Malaysia SF RU QF SF India SF SF W
Alan might predict LD skip or wo at HK, instead LD won the title.
Alan predicted PG SF and CJ the winner, actually they were in the same semi which mean only 1 of them can advance to the sei. So PG is just a QF, and CJ ended up RU. Very close. prediction for CJ
Since PG has so many 6450 points, so he doesn't need SF in SS. He needs SF in SSP which is 7700 points. Alan knew that, so he gave PG only QF at China open. But PG has an easy draw at China open, he would collect his 7700 points easily by beating Taufic.
CJ failed to win HK open (predicted by Alan). Can CJ do it at China open? He has to square off with CL in quarter final, it sounds difficult to win at least in my opinion.
Without winning any title, without wining against any top 5 players, PG did pretty good at SSP. He collected his biggest points 9350 at Ina by defeating SS, and 7700 points at Denmark by defeating Zwiebler.
CJ did defeat LD, CL and PG and also won the Singapore, but his highest point from SSP is only 6050. That's the huge distance between him and PG.
China open will automatically grant PG another 7700 points for his reserver SF position. CJ could end up the same 6050 points which is useless.
CJ has to keep collecting 7000+ points to stay alive; while PG just needs 1 or 2 7000+ points to shut down CJ completely.
Most people believe that China can get whatever they want by fixing the game. Actually, the reality is that China fixing the game because they CANNOT get what they want.
People thought China can get anything once they have the home court advantage. But the reality is that the draw was drawn by BWF's "magic" software.
Just check the draw, we already know that it's impossible that CJ, CL and LD won the top 3 positions at China open. That's the perfect example I said the power of draw. No matter how strong those players are, how dirty China play their tricks, how bad China cheats, they just simply cannot get that results. Most specifically, only 1, either CJ or CL, not both can advance passing the quarter final. At least one of them (CJ, CL) can earn no more than 6000 points at China open.
Originally Posted by AlanY
OK, here is the scenario with 7 PSS/SS + SSF left until May next year;
P Gade Chen Jin Lin Dan Chen Long French R2 QF SF RU China Open QF W SF RU SSF SF QF QF W Korean SF QF RU SF All England SF QF W SF Hong Kong SF W RU Malaysia SF RU QF SF India SF SF W
OK, Chen Jin get your flights and hotel booked now.
11-21-2011, 03:04 PM #17
Don't forget that at Super Series Final, only 2 players from China can play. If Chen Jin is not entered, there goes his chances to collect 7000+ points easily. Meanwhile, PG most likely would be in semi final in Super Series final.