Malaysia Open 2012, what if ...........

[AlanY]

Continue to examine the impacts of the Malaysian Open to the Olympics qualifications.

It’s needless to say that Chen Jin blown a golden chance big time to grab some points last week at Korea, the only good news is likewise for P. Gade thus the gap between the two remains unchanged. Here is table at the top after KO last week;

1
MAS
Lee Chong Wei
90597
11

2
CHN
Lin Dan
87486
12

3
CHN
Chen Long
79240
12

4
DEN
Peter Hoeg Gade
71103
12

5
CHN
Chen Jin
66330
13

6
JPN
Sho Sasaki
63056
15

7
VIE
Tien Minh Nguyen
51359
13

8
CHN
Du Pengyu
50420
11

9
KOR
Lee Hyun Il
50140
14

10
INA
Simon Santoso
49984
13

11
JPN
Kenichi Tago
47260
13

12
INA
Taufik Hidayat
46460
14

13
CHN
Wang Zhengming
45520
13

14
GER
Marc Zwiebler
42716
16

15
KOR
Shon Wan Ho
40560
15

16
DEN
Hans-Kristian Vittinghus
40440
14

17
DEN
Jan O Jorgensen
39270
9

18
INA
Tommy Sugiarto
38800
17

From the latest draw, assuming LD is not too bother CJ should meet PG at SF but based on their recent form there is no guarantee that it is going to happen. My gut feeling is we wouldn’t be seeing another LCW vs LD match until the London OLY, if at all. Both players should and will cut down their commitments and focus on the big one in August. For the top half of the draw LCW should meet CL at the SF, I say 65/35 to LCW with the home advantage. On paper CJ should finish ahead of PG, Gade again has a group of youngsters in his quarter thus a SF place is not so certain. The only threat in CJ’s quarter is Jorgensen, first I don’t believe CJ will lose to him twice in a row and Jorgensen has Du PY and that other guy in the way before he meet CJ.

It’s also quite interesting at the lower end of the top 16 as well. There is about 1000 points between the two Danish guys chasing for the second OLY place and although T. Sugiarto at No 18 looks like that he is out of it but he should try to get in the top 16 just in case one of his team mate drop out for whatever reason.

[AlanY]

As for the WS the top 4 seeds for London are more or less confirmed. A. Goto at 18 is 1500 points behind L. Xin at 16 but with 1 game in hand LX can widen that gap by at least 3600 points. It’s unlikely that she can earn enough points to get into top 16 for qualification.

1
CHN
Wang Yihan
89130
11

2
CHN
Wang Xin
84784
13

3
CHN
Wang Shixian
72267
12

4
IND
Saina Nehwal
65447
14

5
DEN
Tine Baun
61097
14

7
GER
Juliane Schenk
58574
15

8
TPE
Cheng Shao Chieh
55807
16

10
KOR
Sung Ji Hyun
53731
17

11
THA
Inthanon Ratchanok
53643
16

12
KOR
Bae Youn Joo
50048
17

13
TPE
Tai Tzu Ying
48667
14

14
JPN
Sayaka Sato
48280
19

15
THA
Porntip Buranaprasertsuk
43500
14

17
SIN
Juan Gu
40819
16

18
JPN
Ai Goto
39980
15

19
BUL
Petya Nedelcheva
38940
13

[AlanY]

Again, similar to WS the MD top 4 seeds are almost there. The battle will be the second spot for the INA team. With many top teams missing Kido/Setiawan has a very good chance to grab that place with this tournament. The only threat in their half is Chia/Guo, a repeat performance of last week will put them in a very good position. Of course they have to beat their younger team mates if they are to meet in the SF, and with only Korea’s second pair at the other half they do have a good chance to win it. If so, their points will move up to No 8 and ahead of Chandra/Gunawan.

1
CHN
Cai Yun / Fu Haifeng
94461
12

2
KOR
Jung Jae Sung / Lee Yong Dae
85561
14

3
KOR
Ko Sung Hyun / Yoo Yeon Seong
74865
15

4
DEN
Mathias Boe / Carsten Mogensen
72583
11

5
INA
Mohammad Ahsan / Bona Septano
60382
14

6
MAS
Kien Keat Koo / Boon Heong Tan
56671
11

7
CHN
Chai Biao / Guo Zhendong
55740
13

8
INA
Alvent Yulianto Chandra / Hendra Aprida Gunawan
53020
15

9
INA
Markis Kido / Hendra Setiawan
50690
12

10
JPN
Naoki Kawamae / Shoji Sato
49484
17

12
TPE
Fang Chieh Min / Lee Sheng Mu
47939
17

14
GER
Ingo Kindervater / Johannes Schoettler
42826
17

18
POL
Adam Cwalina / Michal Logosz
39370
17

19
USA
Howard Bach / Tony Gunawan
37891
11

21
RUS
Vladimir Ivanov / Ivan Sozonov
36834
13

35
AUS
Ross Smith / Glenn Warfe
25740
11

44
RSA
Dorian Lance James / Willem Viljoen
21113
10

if Kido/Setiawan win the t'ment, they will qualify;

8
INA
Markis Kido / Hendra Setiawan
56290
13

9
INA
Alvent Yulianto Chandra / Hendra Aprida Gunawan
55120
16

if Kido/Setiawan are runner's up they will still be 400 points behind.

[AlanY]

WD’s top 4 seeds are also almost confirmed. Korea’s Jung/Kim at No 9 is 600 points behind the Danish pair, if they finish in front of the Dan they will be qualify as well. Another battle is between the 2 Malaysian pairs with 1400 points between them for the solitary place. Can Iris Wang of USA catch up the 1500 points deficit to their Canadian Neighbour and join her sister to London? Unlikely after this week but we still got 4 months to go. Imagine, that will be SIX Wang just for the women's badminton.

1
CHN
Wang Xiaoli / Yu Yang (F)
99055
10

2
CHN
Tian Qing / Zhao Yunlei
85778
12

3
KOR
Ha Jung Eun / Kim Min Jung
73312
14

4
JPN
Mizuki Fujii / Reika Kakiiwa
65050
14

5
JPN
Miyuki Maeda / Satoko Suetsuna
58725
15

7
TPE
Cheng Wen Hsing / Chien Yu Chin
52500
14

8
DEN
Kamilla Rytter Juhl / Christinna Pedersen
51986
12

9
KOR
Jung Kyung Eun / Kim Ha Na
51390
16

10
INA
Greysia Polii / Meiliana Jauhari
50683
12

12
SIN
Shinta Mulia Sari / Lei Yao
49112
19

13
RUS
Valeri Sorokina / Nina Vislova
45127
13

14
HKG
Poon Lok Yan / Tse Ying Suet
44611
16

16
IND
Jwala Gutta / Ashwini Ponnappa
42308
14

17
MAS
Vivian Kah Mun Hoo / Khe Wei Woon
40880
11

19
MAS
Eei Hui Chin / Pei Tty Wong
39483
14

23
CAN
Nicole Grether / Charmaine Reid
34040
21

26
USA
Iris Wang / Rena Wang
32590
17

30
AUS
Leanne Choo / Renuga Veeran
28729
9

42
RSA
Michelle Claire Edwards / Annari Viljoen
19925
13

[AlanY]

XD is the most boring one, the top 14 are all qualified and looks like that going to stay.

1
CHN
Zhang Nan / Zhao Yunlei
86200
11

2
DEN
Joachim Fischer Nielsen / Christinna Pedersen
80036
12

3
CHN
Xu Chen / Ma Jin
79686
14

4
INA
Tontowi Ahmad / Liliyana Natsir
69740
13

5
TPE
Chen Hung Ling / Cheng Wen Hsing
66822
16

6
DEN
Thomas Laybourn / Kamilla Rytter Juhl
52873
12

7
KOR
Lee Yong Dae / Ha Jung Eun
52740
14

8
THA
Sudket Prapakamol / Saralee Thoungthongkam
50494
16

9
JPN
Shintaro Ikeda / Reiko Shiota
48550
16

10
MAS
Peng Soon Chan / Liu Ying Goh
46720
12

11
RUS
Alexandr Nikolaenko / Valeri Sorokina
44178
13

12
GER
Michael Fuchs / Birgit Michels
43644
19

13
IND
V. Diju / Jwala Gutta
43630
10

14
GBR
Chris Adcock / Imogen Bankier
42470
11

24
CAN
Toby Ng / Grace Gao
35270
18

27
SIN
Danny Bawa Chrisnanta / Yu Yan Vanessa Neo
33280
15

[kwun]

AlanY, can you update the WhatIf scenarios for CJ vs. PG now that PG lost?

[AlanY]

AlanY, can you update the WhatIf scenarios for CJ vs. PG now that PG lost?

yes, boss.

A run through on the day before the SF;
With yet another early exit of PG, Chen Jin is on course to the final and earns valuable OLY points.
As it stand, CJ is way behind PG, over 3000 points.

4 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 71103 13 5 CHN Chen Jin 67850 14

if CJ beat Tago and in the final, the gap is narrowing to 2000 points.

4 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 71103 13 5 CHN Chen Jin 69230 14

if he win it (notice the big if), he will be in touching distance with PG.

4 DEN Peter Hoeg Gade 71103 13 5 CHN Chen Jin 70630 14

Jorgensen with 2 QFs in a row is now overtook Vittinghus by 4000 points, looks safe for Denmark’s MS2.

As for the MD, unfortunately Kido/Setiawan didn’t took advantage of the weaken field can only managed a QF place thus still are 2000 points behinds their younger team mates. Really love to see Kido/Setiawan have a chance to defense their title.

And the XD, The British pair Robertson/Wallwork again failed to capitalise their first round victory over Adcock/Bankier and still 5000 points behind. Their chance for qualification is rapidly fading away.

[kwun]

thank you!

with May 3rd quickly approaching, i think PG may have successfully prevented CJ from going to the Olympics. too bad for CJ as he didn't capitalize on the big opening PG gave him during KO.

however, if CJ is desperate, maybe he will pull a Taufik and shows up in Australia.

[limsy]

chen jin play better today

[kwun]

chen jin play better today

maybe he just started realizing his dire situation? cannot be so dense, can he?

[limsy]

maybe he just started realizing his dire situation? cannot be so dense, can he?

but peter gade is aware of chen jin situation
peter say he will decide his participation on tournament depend on chen jin ranking point

[AlanY]

there are still lots of opportunities for CJ to catch up.
Since he didn't played in last year's Thomas Cup, the TC prelim next month will be an easy 7000 points for him if he play.
The German Open just before the AE, and the AE itself are all possibilities.
After that, Swiss Open and as you said Auss Open and the India SS.

[Miqilin7]

there are still lots of opportunities for CJ to catch up.
Since he didn't played in last year's Thomas Cup, the TC prelim next month will be an easy 7000 points for him if he play.
The German Open just before the AE, and the AE itself are all possibilities.
After that, Swiss Open and as you said Auss Open and the India SS.

Basically he has to play all tournaments consecutively with the exception of Asian Badminton Championship until the Singapore Open 2012, Indonesia Open will not count towards the qualification so He has quite a lot of tournaments to play to squeeze the gap between him and Gade. As i see it, Gade is beginning to lose steam and fitness now, his game in Korea and Malaysia clearly said it all. Chen Jin was a retard for wasting the best chance to narrow it greatly should he made to the semis of the Korea Open (Lin Dan would have given him the walkover like I said). Well let's see how Chen Jin performs against the dangerous Tago-san tomorrow.

[Jonc108]

but peter gade is aware of chen jin situationpeter say he will decide his participation on tournament depend on chen jin ranking point

But it's not wise for PG to push himself to more tournaments just to hack CJ out of OG. That may make himself tired prior to OG. I think he should now plan for building up his form to the best towards OG disregard how CJ does.


Given the inconsistent form of CJ, there is still lot of struggle in his quest. Guess LD's loss to JOJ is a message fr CH team the CJ must also insert more effort from his own part rather than just spoon feeding fr team mates. Let's see how CJ perform today.