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02-21-2012, 02:07 PM #1
Wang Shixian better improve or she may face the axe if JYJ or LXR are ranked 4th
As it stands, JYJ and LXR are slowly catching up with Saina Nehwal in the world ranking. Has anyone wonder what happens if four Chinese players are occupying the top spots and only three can qualify for the Olympics.
What would you do if you re LYB ? Wang Yihan and Wang Xin will definitely be guaranteed a place but for Wang Shixian, I beginning to worry about her prospects of qualifying should he be open to more options and had to be in a position to make the hardest decision.
Wang Shixian has not been playing well as a top player and she has been relying her comrades to piggyback her progress in the tournament. When she faced a formidable opponent, she really stands a very high chance of losing especially to Tine Baun and Julianne Schenk even when they were not at their best. Against Thai and Korean players, she had her up and downs and the only player she can guarantee of beating is Bae Youn Joo.
Would I field her instead of Jiang Yanjiao or even Li Xuerui as the third Chinese player ?
03-12-2012, 05:39 PM #2
Li XueRui is very impressive and world no.4 now. She achieved it in 3 months and got her first All England title yesterday. I will choose her instead of WSX on paper. But, WSX may have more experience. Experience is an improtant factor in such a big game. I still remembered very well Lin Dan got beaten on the first round in olympics 2004. Having said that WSX needs to improve her attacking strength. If she can't improve this, I think LYB may take a risk to choose li XueRui instead.
03-12-2012, 05:50 PM #3
LYB has previous stressed that the most important factor is not purely ranking, but instead the player's head to head percentage against foreign players.
LYB wont' care if LXR beats all of WX, WSX, and WYH to the ground, but she cannot beat one foreign player.
03-12-2012, 05:55 PM #4
furthermore, even if by May 3rd WSX ranking is still higher than LXR, China do have the ability to freely choose any of their 3 players to represent them. the flexibility means that if LYB sees that WSX is going down hill and cannot be relied on in London, he can substitute JYJ or LXR.
i have to say that LXR's is beautiful to watch at the court. her movement is super smooth, dynamic and powerful.
03-13-2012, 02:31 AM #5
Li Xuerui has been a monster for the two weeks..Wang Yihan has no answers to her shots maybe she is tired or pretending to let her surpass Saina.
Having said that, putting Li Xuerui is top 4 will jeopardise WSX's chance if she doesnt perform well in the Uber Cup or the remaining SS....those matches are decisive..
If you want to consider dropping a player other than WSX, i would reckon WX because she has lately joined the YOYO club, getting defeated too early in the tournaments but somehow will bounce back to win titles the next..that sounds pretty more unreliable than WSX
03-13-2012, 03:02 AM #6
03-13-2012, 04:16 PM #7
given what i believe is one of the biggest criteria for selection to Olympics: head-to-head record against foreign player, i have made this table:
Li Xuerui Wang Shixian Wang Xin Wang Yihan Saina 1 / 5 1 / 1 2 / 4 0 /5 Tine 1 / 2 2 / 2 0 / 9 5 / 8 Juliane 0 / 3 2 / 4 1 / 3 1 / 6 Ratchanok 1 / 2 1 / 1 0 / 1 0 / 4 Bae 1 / 2 0 / 6 1 / 5 2 / 2 Tai TY 0 / 2 0 / 2 2 / 1 1 / 1 Sung JH 0 / 2 1 / 2 2 / 4 1 / 4
the numbers are the "lose / win" head-to-head record for the players.
against probably the most threatening competitor, Saina, WYH has the best record, followed by LXR, then WX, then WSX.
against Tine, WX has the most amazing record. WSX has the worst, and WYH/LXR kinda mixed.
against Juliane, WYH has the best record, followed by LXR, followed by WX, then WSX last again.
against Ratchanok, WYH leads, WSX is worst, again. and then WX/LXR mixed.
against Bae, WSX has the best record, followed by WX, then LXR, and WYH comes last.
against Tai, WSX and LXR ties on having the best record. WX is worst, WYH comes in the middle.
against SungJH, LXR has the best record, WYH next, WSX/WX mixed.
and overall, i think WYH and WX do have an edge against LXR/WSX.
if we look at just LXR vs. WSX, LXR seems to have a slight edge as well.
03-13-2012, 04:24 PM #8
LXR 13-4... 3.25 wins per loss
WSX 14-6... 2.33 wins per loss
WX 22-4 ... this is amazing– 5.50 wins per loss (thanks to that head scratching 9-0 record v Tine)
WYH 24-8... 3.00 wins per loss (no thanks to that 5-7 record v Tine)
WSX is still the low mark based on this.
03-13-2012, 04:26 PM #9
sorry. i just added the record against TZY also, as well as adding the results from the AE last week.
03-13-2012, 04:30 PM #10
adding in TZY and the AE, the landscape looks very different for the win/loss ratio:
LXR - 3.75
WSX - 2.67
WX - 3.67
WYH - 2.78
and suddenly LXR now leading!
i have to double check my spreadsheet but that's really what it comes up to.
would anyone bet that LYB has a very similar spreadsheet in his computer?
03-13-2012, 04:33 PM #11
my mistake. forgot one point for WX against Tai. here is the new ratios:
LXR - 3.75
WSX - 2.67
WX - 3.83
WYH - 2.78
so WX still leading. but not by much!
03-13-2012, 04:59 PM #12
Based on this great table ( thanks ) i think they should take WYH, WX & LXR.
WYH because she is the best...(IMHO)
WX purely for her record against TB, who will be the strongest rival for the OG gold.
WSX has pretty patchy records against most, and although LXR doesnt have much record against people, she can only improve with more game time and will be hungry.
03-13-2012, 05:06 PM #13
guys, very interesting stat.
it seems that all 4 have a similar record as to win 3 out of 4 matches, give or take.
now, the new group format of the 2012 OLY means that they most likely will play only 2 matches to reach the semi-final.
statistically all 3 will be in the SF plus the no 4 seed, should be either SN or TB.
So, LYB and his coaching team should look at the record against those 2 alone.
that will put the winning ratio against SN + TB;
1 WX 13/15 = 87%
2 LXR 7/9 = 78%
3 WYH 13/18 = 72%, and
4 WSX 3/6 = 50%.
03-13-2012, 05:12 PM #14
Again, WSX comes out the worst. All the signs are there.
03-13-2012, 05:15 PM #15
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03-13-2012, 05:19 PM #16
03-13-2012, 09:21 PM #17
Yes. I also have the same concern that WSX may not make it. LYB knew his players inside out. I pretty sure he has done all the analysis that we do here. This is why LXR was given chances to overtake Saina by CBA. But, everything is still to early to conclude. Let us wait and see.
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