I've complied last 2 years' h2h between the top 4 WS against the next 4 below. The most impressive is WYH lost only once in 2 years over 16 matches. WSX is the worst with only a 58.8% winning ratio. The tables also show the winning ratio of the top Chinese against the others, and vice visa. Li Yongbo is in the most enviable position that he has to leave one of the top 4 player at home. It’s a no brainer if he just considers the h2h of his players. Are there any other factors for him to pick WSX ahead of LXR? [TABLE="class: grid"] [TR] [TD][TABLE] [TR="class: grid"] [TD][/TD] [TD]Saina Nehwal[/TD] [TD]Tine Baun[/TD] [TD]Juliane Schenk[/TD] [TD]Cheng Shao Chieh[/TD] [TD]total[/TD] [TD]winning %[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]Wang Yihan[/TD] [TD]5 - 0[/TD] [TD]4 - 1[/TD] [TD]4 - 0[/TD] [TD]2 - 0[/TD] [TD]15 - 1[/TD] [TD="align: right"]93.8%[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]Wang Xin[/TD] [TD]2 - 2[/TD] [TD]5 - 0[/TD] [TD]2 - 1[/TD] [TD]1 - 0[/TD] [TD]10 - 3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]76.9%[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]Li Xuerui[/TD] [TD]3 - 1[/TD] [TD]2 - 1[/TD] [TD]3 - 0[/TD] [TD]2 - 1[/TD] [TD]10 - 3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]76.9%[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]Wang Shixian[/TD] [TD]1 - 2[/TD] [TD]1 - 2[/TD] [TD]5 - 2[/TD] [TD]3 - 2[/TD] [TD]10 - 7[/TD] [TD="align: right"]58.8%[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]total[/TD] [TD]11 - 5[/TD] [TD]12 - 4[/TD] [TD]14 - 3[/TD] [TD]8 - 4[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]winning %[/TD] [TD]31.3%[/TD] [TD]25.0%[/TD] [TD]17.6%[/TD] [TD]33.3%[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE="class: grid"] [TR] [TD][TABLE] [TR="class: grid"] [TD][/TD] [TD]Saina Nehwal[/TD] [TD]Tine Baun[/TD] [TD]Juliane Schenk[/TD] [TD]Cheng Shao Chieh[/TD] [TD]total[/TD] [TD]winning %[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]Wang Yihan[/TD] [TD]5 - 0[/TD] [TD]4 - 1[/TD] [TD]4 - 0[/TD] [TD]2 - 0[/TD] [TD]15 - 1[/TD] [TD="align: right"]93.8%[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]Wang Xin[/TD] [TD]2 - 2[/TD] [TD]5 - 0[/TD] [TD]2 - 1[/TD] [TD]1 - 0[/TD] [TD]10 - 3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]76.9%[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]Li Xuerui[/TD] [TD]3 - 1[/TD] [TD]2 - 1[/TD] [TD]3 - 0[/TD] [TD]2 - 1[/TD] [TD]10 - 3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]76.9%[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]total[/TD] [TD]10 - 3[/TD] [TD]11 - 2[/TD] [TD]9 - 1[/TD] [TD]5 - 1[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]winning %[/TD] [TD]23.1%[/TD] [TD]15.4%[/TD] [TD]10.0%[/TD] [TD]16.7%[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE="class: grid"] [TR] [TD][TABLE] [TR="class: grid"] [TD][/TD] [TD]Saina Nehwal[/TD] [TD]Tine Baun[/TD] [TD]Juliane Schenk[/TD] [TD]Cheng Shao Chieh[/TD] [TD]total[/TD] [TD]winning %[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]Wang Yihan[/TD] [TD]5 - 0[/TD] [TD]4 - 1[/TD] [TD]4 - 0[/TD] [TD]2 - 0[/TD] [TD]15 - 1[/TD] [TD="align: right"]93.8%[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]Wang Xin[/TD] [TD]2 - 2[/TD] [TD]5 - 0[/TD] [TD]2 - 1[/TD] [TD]1 - 0[/TD] [TD]10 - 3[/TD] [TD="align: right"]76.9%[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]Wang Shixian[/TD] [TD]1 - 2[/TD] [TD]1 - 2[/TD] [TD]5 - 2[/TD] [TD]3 - 2[/TD] [TD]10 - 7[/TD] [TD="align: right"]58.8%[/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]total[/TD] [TD]8 - 4[/TD] [TD]10 - 3[/TD] [TD]11 - 3[/TD] [TD]6 - 2[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]winning %[/TD] [TD]33.3%[/TD] [TD]23.1%[/TD] [TD]21.4%[/TD] [TD]25.0%[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
Wang Xin's super inconsistency is another factor LYB must seriously consider... Wang Shixian's fighting spirit as well as her good record against other minor players can be taken in account.. Li Xuerui is definitely in unless what she has done in the past few weeks have brilliantly deceived us all.
I think performances against other danger players further down the list would also take some consideration. It is ok being able to beat the top players, but you must get to the later rounds to be able to beat them.
If you imagine the worst possible scenario for WS, if Wang Yihan and Wang Xin both choked in the Olympic Games...for China, it is still better to have a medal in bag rather than none. I would personally prefer to keep Wang Shixian in the squad as she has managed to reach the semifinals consistently. Whether she is able to overcome the top opponents, that's leaves to how hard she trained and prepared herself. Li Xuerui hasn't been put under such pressure when all fails, she has to take the sole responsibility as the flag bearer.
You should also compile the records of all four players' progression in the SS tournaments for the past two years to compare who has consistently made it to the final or have been inconsistently beaten in the early rounds. That's another big factor to look at though the draw is quite subjective for an evaluation is concerned
Li Xuerui chalked up another victory over Schenk and that should be the final nail in the coffin for Wang Shixian’s dream for 2012 and the end of Li Yongbo’s dilemma, or is it? Now Chen Jin also eligible for London Mr Li has another dilemma as to send all 3 or just 2 and leave 1 home. It’s a far-fetched and definitely a bold move if he decided to do so. To have all 3 going to 2012 London the OLY rules dictate that LCW and LD will be in opposite halves and CL and CJ to draw lots to decide with halves they will be in, i.e. a 50/50 chance to face LCW in SF according to the seeding. If China only sends 2 players, LCW and LD will still be the same in opposite halves with the second MS (CL or CJ) in LCW’s half. This is really depends on the valuations of CL and CJ’s chance against LCW. For argument’s sake let’s say CJ has zero chance against LCW then the only option is leave him home thus avoid the 50/50 chance for a free ticket to the final for LCW. Even if CL is say 20% better chance than CJ (or other way round) against LCW it’s still worth to leave the other home. The only disadvantage is LD has to play a non-Chinese in the SF which is not a big deal. He has to if CL or CJ couldn’t get into the SF anyway. It’s also a psychological advantage by telling LCW that China doesn’t rely on the draw but already decided who to play in the SF and final. It’s definitely a BOLD move to send 2 instead of 3 players to the Olympics, but if anyone can Li Yongbo can.
Maybe he didnt think of this option? otherwise why send CJ to AUS and he works so hard to get qulified? I think 3 will still go. Don't think CL has chance either anyway.
I wouldn't put too much faith on Chen Long if I were LYB. He is expected to get upset again based on his recent form. So it's safe to conclude Chen Jin will go to London as a safety in case Lin Dan or Chen Long fails. Chen Jin could actually deliver in a major event which he has repeatedly done so since 2008
that's exactly what i'm saying, if LYB think either CL or CJ has to chance to beat LCW he should leave him home.
3 Chinese is better than 2 Chinese...moreover...it will be extremely dumb and oversight of LYB to just concentrate his actions on LCW alone...that's not a very wise management decision..
not necessary. let say MS2 has a 100% winning chance against LCW and MS3 has a 0%. to have 3 players it's a 50/50 chance to win or lose the SF, but with 2 players it's 100% certainty. sometime less is better
I thought there is still a rule that says the top 2 players in the same country needs to be in the opposite side of the draws - even with the group play. Because LCW and LD are seeded #1 and #2, they for sure will be on the opposite side of the draws. By default, this means CL has to be in the same side of the draw as LCW, regardless whether CJ qualified or not.
I agree, but I wouldnt say CL or CJ has much more chance than the other over LCW, it is not the 100/0 ratio certainly. Moreso I would favour CJ to beat most when it matters. He is pretty reliable in that sense. CL not proven in this respect yet.
Further to what I've said, please refer to section 4.1 (especially 4.1.1) of this document http://www.bwfbadminton.org/file_download.aspx?id=41436&tid=1 The rule does confirm that if LD, CL, and CJ all go to the Olympics, CL is guarantee to be in same half as LCW.
I've asked and confirmed by a bwf umpire that in the case of China now, MS2 & MS3 will be in a draw to decide
That's good dilemma ....not a bad one. I think LXR will go to OG beside WYH....now LYB will decide WX or WSX...I think WX has a better chance...
3 will definitely go. It doesn't matter whether CL or CJ play LCW. If it gets to a semifinal like that, then the objective of the chinese player is to tire out LCW. For the other CHN-CHN semifinal, it's to give a walkover. Have to agree there.
