The Golden Chance

[AlanY]

I've complied a table of the gold medal chances from William Hill's latest odds.
Based on this figures the most likely outcome is China to take 4 golds with Korea (MD) slightly ahead of DEN (XD) and MAS (MS) to take the fifth.

Of course, the zeros in the table are not exactly zero but with a very low possibility, e.g. INA's chance for a full house of 5 golds is 141.5 million to 1 approx., equivalent to winning the UK lottery jackpot 10 times.

1 Gold
2 Golds
3 Golds
4 Golds
5 Golds

CHN
0.16%
3.51%
21.21%
45.69%
29.43%

KOR
43.63%
11.05%
1.09%
0.05%
0.00%

DEN
35.76%
7.94%
0.74%
0.03%
0.00%

MAS
35.54%
2.33%
0.04%
0.00%


INA
21.32%
1.91%
0.07%
0.00%
0.00%

JPN
16.39%
1.10%
0.03%
0.00%
0.00%

TPE
13.45%
0.79%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%

THA
12.12%
0.59%
0.01%
0.00%


IND
11.72%
0.23%
0.00%
0.00%


GER
4.79%
0.07%
0.00%
0.00%


GBR
3.38%
0.03%
0.00%



RUS
3.10%
0.03%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%

SIN
2.97%
0.03%
0.00%



USA
1.88%
0.01%




HKG
1.77%
0.01%
0.00%



POL
1.19%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%


FRA
1.06%
0.00%




NED
0.89%
0.00%




AUS
0.83%
0.00%
0.00%



CAN
0.70%
0.00%
0.00%



IRL
0.70%
0.00%




RSA
0.50%
0.00%

[ctjcad]

similar/related thread here?
http://www.badmintoncentral.com/foru...t-William-Hill

[rosid]

AlanY, can you tell me how to get those score. I don't have any idea how those numbers come from.

[AlanY]

AlanY, can you tell me how to get those score. I don't have any idea how those numbers come from.

from fellow BCers
http://www.badmintoncentral.com/foru...ary-statistics

[AlanY]

updated on 24/07/2012 (after the draws) from BET365;

It's almost 50/50 chance that China will get 4 GOLDS.

1 Gold
2 Golds
3 Golds
4 Golds
5 Golds

CHN
0.04%
2.17%
19.35%
48.09%
30.37%

KOR
43.71%
12.50%
1.49%
0.08%
0.00%

DEN
36.04%
8.15%
0.76%
0.03%
0.00%

MAS
30.32%
2.37%
0.04%
0.00%
0.00%

INA
20.36%
1.72%
0.06%
0.00%
0.00%

JPN
15.64%
0.96%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%

TPE
13.66%
0.81%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%

THA
12.29%
0.61%
0.01%
0.00%


IND
11.72%
0.23%
0.00%
0.00%


GER
6.84%
0.13%
0.00%
0.00%


GBR
3.73%
0.03%
0.00%



SIN
2.88%
0.02%
0.00%



RUS
2.63%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%

HKG
1.93%
0.01%
0.00%



POL
1.91%
0.01%
0.00%
0.00%


USA
1.88%
0.01%




FRA
1.06%
0.00%




IRL
0.94%
0.00%




NED
0.79%
0.00%




AUS
0.60%
0.00%
0.00%



RSA
0.42%
0.00%




CAN
0.40%
0.00%
0.00%

[kwun]

the odds for China are surprisingly high. i don't think even LYB will think they are going to get 4...

[abedeng]

4 golds are still decent possibilities for China. Heck, they whacked all 5 last year at the same venue. The only difference over the past year is that their top MD pair are now showing signs of ageing.

[CantSmashThis]

How many times would I have to win the lottery for the US to have a chance at 2 golds? I was gonna say 5 golds, but the US is only entered in 2 events haha. Good thing I thought that over carefully.

[kwun]

How many times would I have to win the lottery for the US to have a chance at 2 golds? I was gonna say 5 golds, but the US is only entered in 2 events haha. Good thing I thought that over carefully.

take the probability of winning the powerball.

square it.

[AlanY]

How many times would I have to win the lottery for the US to have a chance at 2 golds? I was gonna say 5 golds, but the US is only entered in 2 events haha. Good thing I thought that over carefully.

not as bad as you think, 15285 to 1.

[CantSmashThis]

not as bad as you think, 15285 to 1.

That's surprisingly lower than I expected. Considering Howard/Tony have what I consider as the hardest group and Rena to play Wang Xin 1st round. I think the chances of Rena making it to round of 16 is higher in playing in a group of 2 rather than 3. If somehow Wang Xin gets injured, Rena would go through to the next round automatically. Compared to a group of 3, where you need to at least win 1 match and have the other player injured.

[AlanY]

as to date the BC poll latest suggested that China to win 4 Golds and 1 for Korea, exactly as the bookmakers', BET 365, William Hill etc.