The Golden Chance

Discussion in 'Olympics LONDON 2012' started by AlanY, Jul 18, 2012.

  1. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    [TABLE="width: 64"]
    [TR]
    [TD="width: 64"][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    I've complied a table of the gold medal chances from William Hill's latest odds.
    Based on this figures the most likely outcome is China to take 4 golds with Korea (MD) slightly ahead of DEN (XD) and MAS (MS) to take the fifth.

    Of course, the zeros in the table are not exactly zero but with a very low possibility, e.g. INA's chance for a full house of 5 golds is 141.5 million to 1 approx., equivalent to winning the UK lottery jackpot 10 times.

    Code:
    [TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 384"]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1 Gold[/TD]
[TD]2 Golds[/TD]
[TD]3 Golds[/TD]
[TD]4 Golds[/TD]
[TD]5 Golds[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]CHN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.16%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.51%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21.21%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]45.69%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]KOR[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43.63%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.05%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.09%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.05%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]DEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]35.76%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.94%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.74%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.03%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]MAS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]35.54%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.33%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.04%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]INA[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21.32%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.91%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.07%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]JPN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.39%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.03%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]TPE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.79%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.02%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]THA[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.59%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]IND[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.72%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.23%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]GER[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.79%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.07%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]GBR[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.38%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.03%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]RUS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.10%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.03%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]SIN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.97%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.03%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]USA[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.88%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]HKG[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.77%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]POL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]FRA[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.06%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]NED[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.89%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]AUS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.83%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]CAN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.70%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]IRL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.70%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]RSA[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.50%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
     
    #1 AlanY, Jul 18, 2012
  2. ctjcad

    ctjcad Regular Member

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    #2 ctjcad, Jul 18, 2012
  3. rosid

    rosid Regular Member

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    AlanY, can you tell me how to get those score. I don't have any idea how those numbers come from.
     
    #3 rosid, Jul 18, 2012
  4. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    #4 AlanY, Jul 18, 2012
  5. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    updated on 24/07/2012 (after the draws) from BET365;

    It's almost 50/50 chance that China will get 4 GOLDS.
    Code:
    [TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1 Gold[/TD]
[TD]2 Golds[/TD]
[TD]3 Golds[/TD]
[TD]4 Golds[/TD]
[TD]5 Golds[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]CHN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.04%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.17%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19.35%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]48.09%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30.37%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]KOR[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43.71%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.50%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.49%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.08%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]DEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36.04%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.76%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.03%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]MAS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30.32%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.37%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.04%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]INA[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]20.36%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.72%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.06%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]JPN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15.64%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.96%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.02%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]TPE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13.66%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.81%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.02%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]THA[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.29%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.61%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]IND[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.72%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.23%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]GER[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.84%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]GBR[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.73%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.03%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]SIN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.88%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.02%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]RUS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.63%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.02%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]HKG[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.93%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]POL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.91%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]USA[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.88%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]FRA[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.06%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]IRL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.94%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]NED[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.79%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]AUS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.60%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]RSA[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.42%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: grid"]
[TD]CAN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.40%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.00%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
     
    #5 AlanY, Jul 24, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2012
  6. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    the odds for China are surprisingly high. i don't think even LYB will think they are going to get 4...
     
    #6 kwun, Jul 24, 2012
  7. abedeng

    abedeng Regular Member

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    4 golds are still decent possibilities for China. Heck, they whacked all 5 last year at the same venue. The only difference over the past year is that their top MD pair are now showing signs of ageing.
     
    #7 abedeng, Jul 24, 2012
  8. CantSmashThis

    CantSmashThis Regular Member

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    How many times would I have to win the lottery for the US to have a chance at 2 golds? I was gonna say 5 golds, but the US is only entered in 2 events haha. Good thing I thought that over carefully.
     
    #8 CantSmashThis, Jul 24, 2012
  9. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    take the probability of winning the powerball.

    square it.
     
    #9 kwun, Jul 24, 2012
  10. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    not as bad as you think, 15285 to 1.
     
    #10 AlanY, Jul 24, 2012
  11. CantSmashThis

    CantSmashThis Regular Member

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    That's surprisingly lower than I expected. Considering Howard/Tony have what I consider as the hardest group and Rena to play Wang Xin 1st round. I think the chances of Rena making it to round of 16 is higher in playing in a group of 2 rather than 3. If somehow Wang Xin gets injured, Rena would go through to the next round automatically. Compared to a group of 3, where you need to at least win 1 match and have the other player injured.
     
    #11 CantSmashThis, Jul 24, 2012
  12. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

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    as to date the BC poll latest suggested that China to win 4 Golds and 1 for Korea, exactly as the bookmakers', BET 365, William Hill etc.
     
    #12 AlanY, Jul 25, 2012

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