i have been wondering. China has 4 very eligible MS player for the up coming olympics. namely, Chen Hong, Xia Xuanze, Lin Dan and Bao Chunlai, however, Olympics qualifying regulation says China can only send 3 players to the Olympics (if they all are in the top 16). then out of the 4, whom should China send? (you can select more than 1 players)
I voted for Lin Dan, Xia Xuanze, and Chen Hong. I think Bao will be one of the odd person out because as of now (China Open is still playing), he hasn't won any tournaments this year. This reminds me of Chen Hong's situation back in Year 2000 during the Sydney Olympic qualifying period. Despite his youth, talent, and his high ranking, Chen Hong didn't win any tournaments during the Sydney Olympic qualifying period. Therefore, he wasn't selected to play in the Olympics. As you may recall back in 2000, Luo Yigang was constantly ranked within top 10, but Sun Jun was chosen ahead of him because of his experience; and Xia and Ji were choosen ahead of Luo because they are more talented and they fared better in tournaments. Chen Yu will likely be the Luo Yigang of 2000. Despite his high ranking, he won't be selected to the Olympic teamate because Xia and Chen Hong have more experience than he has; and Lin Dan and Bao Chunlai are more talented than he is.
what about china's WS players? there's four chinese WS players who are all capable of getting the gold in athens with gong, zhang and zhou ranked in the top 3 and xie as 6th. but it isn't based entirely on the ranking. plus, xie has been getting better and better lately so i think it would be unfair for her not to go. by the next olympics, she'll be 27 and who knows if she'll still be playing by then?
Bao CL and Chen Yu will give their teammates secure "backup" choices in case of injuries (Xia and CH seem got bothered a lot lately). However, their potential also makes the selection to be extra tougher. With his hot streak, Lin Dan seems locked for the 3rd spot behind CH and Xia. However, Xia seems entered another cold period after winning the world champ. Of course, more or less this has to do with his injury, just hope he can recover, and get back in form.
Yeap, as expected Chen Hong, Lin Dan and Xia Xuanze are the frontrunners of the selection and why not? Chen Hong is #1 for a very good reason, Lin Dan is on fire and Xia is more experienced than the other two. Hard to choose, but I'd go for experience and form over youth in this one. And as spoken by LB, Bao and Chen Yu make the perfect backup for the more injury prone seniors.
With such a good pool of talent, China could also adopt the similar strategy as what BAM declared for Malaysia - keep the Olympians out of TC team. A good choice will be to rest Chen Hong and Xia Xuanze out of TC, shall Li YB decides to pick them ahead of their younger compatriots. Should not be a problem for Lin Dan to play in both as he certainly has the stamina to do so. So, by having Lin Dan, Bao CL, Chen Yu and perhaps Chen Wei as reserve, China is still the team to reckon with.
i reckon that the main reason why China doesnt have a monopoly in the men singles as they do in WS despite having a deep pool of talent in both disciplines is that the chinese MS players are about as consistent as rhino droppings... Xia, imo, is overall the best in terms of skill: neatest footwork, most experience, strong defence and deadly efficient in attack, but it is so typical of him to be in control of a match against a much weaker player then suddenly just lose it and drop a series of slack points, and make it much harder for himself to win...this takes a huge toll on stamina too in a large tournament such as the olympics Lin dan, overall, is second best i think and currently the most consistent Chen Hong and Bao chunlai both need more variety on their attacking shots and also need to work on their defense and footwork...up against quick players with good defence like maybe Taufik on one of his better days, chen hong is helpless...but he has more experience than bao and is more capable of winning big tournaments, so i think china should send xia, lin and chen
I highly doubt Li YB will apply the above strategy. As the MD finally got a chance to compete, this could be considered as the best chance for CHN to take TC since 1992, especially at a time that other power houses facing difficulties to get their young generation ready (INA: Tauffik's self destruction as for now, KOR: Injury to MD pairs, MAS: about to give up this one, DEN: might not have "the one" for MS). If Li send relatively inexperienced squad in Lin, Bao, and Chen, that will be too much risk. If the MD pairs still can't live up to their reputation and high hope, it will be way too much pressure on the youngsters. Let's don't forget about Bao's weak mental strength and Chen's lack of experience on big stage. Also, with recently poor performance, I think Chen H and Xia need some "activities" to regain their forms and confidence.
My picks To sum up... I actually think that Bao does not have a poor defense. For his height, I think his defense is as good as if not relatively better than the others. He has a good all round game, but maybe not the mental ability to go with his technical ability. I think he just needs more exposure and 1 big tournament win over his WC bronze medal, to give him the confidence boost to jump a level. On ability, I think he could win a Bronze medal... Chen Hong has been very consistent, but I agree that his attacking style is too predictable for his current opponents. As predictable as his smashes are, they are very effective. When his smashes keep coming back though, his confidence is affected and seems to run out of ideas. But depending on his draw, he is a gold medal prospect. Given his ranking, he won't be happy with anything apart from Gold, but in my opinion there are better players out there... Lin Dan was the surprise of 2003. It was frustrating to see someone with so much talent not win a major tournament. Being under his peers' shadows didn't help, but many are glad that he is fulfilling his potential. He has has been on a hot streak, and hope that he will be able to continue in 2004. But if past statistics are anything to go by, he will either pick up an injury or enter a cold streak, maybe after the Olympics. (Touch wood) If he carries on playing like he has these last few months, he is a gold medal contender... Xia is technically very good, has probably the most experience, and is a big match player. But his form seems to have been dipping. His style of play is such that it uses up a lot of stamina, and wins games in 3 sets when they could have been won in 2. Unless he is injured, he can not be left out simply for his fighting spirit. He'll want to go one step further since the last Olympics and prove that his World Championship medal was not the last. A real top medal prospect for China. Chen Yu is probably the least known out of this list, but he has been a seasoned campaigner for a relatively long time. He made a great run in 2003 and breaks into the world's top ten. He beat some big names on the circuit, and reached 2 finals (I think), but has failed at the penultimate hurdle. I think he also won the internal National competition. From the limited footage that I have seen, he seems to have a good all round game and consistency. A dark horse amongst the candidates, and a possible Bronze medallist, but I have not seen enough of him to say whether he is good enough to go further. In the top 10 rankings, there are 5 Chinese players. Worryingly, outside the top 10 there is only 1 other Chinese player in the top 100. (rank 57 Wu Yun Yong) . Whilst they are in a dominating position now, with a couple of those players injured, there won't be a good choice of back up shuttlers with the desired experience or exposure. The 2000 World Juniors have already been amalgramated into the senior squad (Bao, Lin, Zhu, Wu). Note that Bao was the winner and Lin runner up... Maybe the Chinese coach is deliberately pacing the top athletes and rotating them. If that is true, then Bao should be the next to be 'allowed' to win some tournaments. Of course we'll never know the answers to these questions. We can only speculate My pick would be a definite Lin, Xia and Chen in no order. Bao would be backup, but Chen Yu would be a gamble. The other medal contenders I see are Peter Gade, Taufik, Sony Dwi Kuncoro, Lee Chong Wei, Wong Choong Hann, Boonsak Polsana, Lee Hyun Il. Wong Choong Hann being the strongest contender. I still think China are favourites to take the gold
Re: My picks With its current dominating forces, the 2nd layer players don't have too much chance to participate in high ranking international tournies (except China Open). The bright spot is, Chen (Yu), Wu and Zhu seems got satisfied performance with very limited appearance, with Chen leading the way. Chen Hong is 24, and Xia is 26. They will be out in the next few yrs, with their current injury history (not too many Zhang Ning type around in CHN squard). Especially for Xia, this olympics is definitely his last chance to shoot for the gold. Therefore, with the "seniority", Chen and Xia should get the ticket without any question.
Re: Re: My picks You're probably right about this! I remember reading somewhere an interview of Li Yongbo which tended to confirm what you're saying (though not said openly of course ).
Re: Re: Re: My picks There's no secret on topics like this. In CHN teams (all sports), the respectable "old guns" always get some "bonus" in Olympics selection. Overall, they have the most experience to be fairly reliable, and this will be the last time for them to add another gold in their already impressive resume.
various reports have came out. but one of them that LiYB says makes the most sense. for events in which China has a choice, the players who can consistently beat the players from another country will have higher weight. Wong is one of the biggest threat to the Chinese, Xia 9-0 record (or was it more?) against him will certainly be a plus. Lin denied Wong from retaining the China Open title, that certain will hold some weight as well. Bao consistently lose to others especially at big events (Hafiz in TC, Taufik in SC). so that doesn't help him. ChenH has been pretty consistent. but has really won any big events lately. with the results so far, it looks like a race between Bao and ChenH. Xia is still injured and only doing light training.
Looking at the Swiss Xia seems to be struggling still, perhaps he needs a good performance at AE next week to make the olympics or else he could be passed over for the younger players!
Maybe if the poll restarts today, the choice could be in a different order: Lin, Bao, Chen Yu, Chen Hong, Xia.
Re: My picks I thought Bao was winner and Sony Dwi Kuncoro was runner up, whilst Lin was bronze medallist... but Lin was certainly the favorite for that tournament, and with the scoring system back to 3 x 15, Bao hasn't beaten him since...neither have many other players in the last few months
