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  1. #1
    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
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    Default Chen Long, Lin Dan and Lee Chong Wei for the world title

    these are the H2H between the 3 title contenders of the men's singles world title.
    the data are mainly from BWF's website with the added time history of their matches.

    if you look at their win/loss trend, LCW is most likely to get a win next since he lost his last 2 matches to both.
    so, it's LCW's advantage to make that 'next' match at the WC and LD and CL probably would like to meet him before to get that loss out of the way.

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    considering their ages, experience, form, H2H etc and China have the home advantage I'll put CL slightly ahead of both LD and LCW, and LD slightly ahead of LCW.

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    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
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    these are the actually results;
    Code:
    LD vs LCW
    2012 Olympics 15-21 21-10 21-19
    YONEX All England Open Badminton Championships 2012 21-19 6-2 Retired
    Victor Korea Open 2012 21-12 18-21 14-21
    Li Ning China Open 2011 19-21 21-12 21-11
    Yonex Sunrise Hong Kong Open 2011 21-16 21-14
    Yonex BWF World Championships 2011 20-22 21-14 23-21
    YONEX All England Open 17-21 17-21
    VICTOR Korea Open 21-19 14-21 21-16
    Asian Games 2010 21-13 15-21 21-10
    JAPAN SUPER SERIES 2010 20-22 21-16 17-21
    PROTON-BWF THOMAS UBER CUP FINALS 2010 (KUALA LUMPUR) 21-17 21-8
    LI NING CHINA MASTERS SUPER SERIES 2009 22-20 15-21 21-7
    LI NING 2009 SUDIRMAN CUP 21-16 21-16
    WILSON SWISS SUPER SERIES 2009 16-21 16-21
    Yonex All England Open Super Series 2009 21-19 21-12
    LI NING CHINA OPEN SUPER SERIES 08 21-18 21-9
    Olympics 2008 21-12 21-8
    Thomas and Uber Cup 2008 12-21 14-21
    WILSON SWISS SUPER SERIES 2008 21-13 21-18
    HONG KONG SUPER SERIES 2007 9-21 21-15 21-15
    YONEX OPEN JAPAN SUPER SERIES 2007 19-21 15-21
    China Masters SS 2007 15-21 21-14 21-15
    Sudirman Cup 2007 17-21 17-21
    Hong Kong Open 2006 21-19 8-21 21-16
    Macau Open Championship 2006 18-21 21-18 18-21
    CHINESE TAIPEI OPEN 2006 21-18 12-21 21-11
    MALAYSIA OPEN 2006 18-21 21-18 21-23
    YONEX ALL ENGLAND OPEN 2006 15-9 10-15 17-14
    Yonex Sunrise Hong Kong Badminon Championship 2005 15-4 15-6
    PROTON MALAYSIA OPEN 2005 15-17 15-9 9-15
    TUC Asia Preliminaries 2004 3-15 15-13 15-6
    Code:
    CL vs LCW
    Yonex All England Open Badminton Championships 2013 21-17 21-18
    Yonex Sunrise Hong Kong Open 2012 21-19 21-17
    2012 Olympics 13-21 14-21
    MAYBANK Malaysia Open Presented by PROTON 18-21 21-17 13-21
    Li Ning BWF World Superseries Finals 2011 21-16 16-21 21-18
    Yonex Badminton French Open 2011 21-23 21-17 15-21
    Yonex Denmark Open 2011 21-15 21-18
    YONEX Open Japan 21-8 10-21 21-19
    DJARUM Indonesia Open 17-21 18-21
    YONEX All England Open 17-21 13-21
    PROTON Malaysia Open 9-21 9-21
    YONEX SUNRISE MALAYSIA OPEN GRAND PRIX GOLD 2009 16-21 9-21
    Yonex Sunrise India Open 2009 7-21 21-16 21-18

  3. #3
    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
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    one of the very interesting fact is out of the 44 matches that LCW played against LD and CL, only ONCE that LCW won the match after he lost the first game.

    it's really the mental part of his game is the problem.

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    AlanY, as always, thanks for the stats.

    I think how the three contenders perform the next few tournaments in the run-up to the WC should give us a clearer picture of their forms and chances. Of the three, Lin Dan obviously has the most to do and the hardest part as well to get back into top form.

    Of the next available tournaments, it'll probably be the INA Open PSS and the SG Open SS that we may see them playing together. We might also want to look out for potential underdogs and dark horses. I'm most keen to see how Wang Zhengming would fare in the coming tournaments as a prelude to the WC.

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    Default Chen Long, Lin Dan and Lee Chong Wei for the world title

    only these three for the MS title?
    Anyway, I really think one of these three will be the champion.
    My take:
    LCW 35%
    CL 35%
    LD 20%
    The rest 10%
    The main reason I rate LD lower than LCW and CL is because of lack of competitions, as we see CY/FHF's performance in Sudirman Cup.
    Should we have a poll for this?

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    Regular Member gundamzaku's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlanY View Post
    one of the very interesting fact is out of the 44 matches that LCW played against LD and CL, only ONCE that LCW won the match after he lost the first game.

    it's really the mental part of his game is the problem.
    yes, i'm glad you pointed that out

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    Quote Originally Posted by well-son View Post
    only these three for the MS title?
    Anyway, I really think one of these three will be the champion.
    My take:
    LCW 35%
    CL 35%
    LD 20%
    The rest 10%
    The main reason I rate LD lower than LCW and CL is because of lack of competitions, as we see CY/FHF's performance in Sudirman Cup.
    Should we have a poll for this?
    I'll put CL a little higher than LCW.

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    Quote Originally Posted by well-son View Post
    only these three for the MS title?
    It would be a major surprise if one of them isn't out as the World Champion
    The Gold, Silver and Bronze medalist of London OG are strong fave here, the biggest individual event after Olympic Games.

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    If I'm not wrong, Lin Dan's motivation was already waning sometime before the London Olympics though it came back up quite a bit just before and during it. Now that he has made it a double in Olympic gold, I'm afraid his motivation will take a further dip. In fact, I believe lack of motivation is the bane of champions or any top players, a famous example I often cited being tennis legend,Bjorn Borg, who suddenly announced his retirement at the age of just 26 for lack of motivation while still at the height of his power.

    In this regard, both Lee CW and Chen Long are more motivated than Lin Dan and I'd rate Lee CW's chances highest assuming all three play at about the same level. The quest for Lin Dan to win his 5th WC title isn't the same as for wining the 1st or 2nd world title as far as his motivation is concerned. Nevertheless, on one aspect, Lin Dan holds the element of surprise, for nobody except CBA and those closest to him knows his current form, the more so nearer to the event.

    Of course, I'd love to see Lin Dan make it a 5 !
    Last edited by Justin L; 06-25-2013 at 08:50 AM.

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    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
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    i still stick to my original prediction as CL > LD > LCW.

    taking into account that the home advantage and bear in mind that since 2007 MAS as a whole only won 1 title in China and that was by Ms LCW in 2007.

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    Regular Member robin7's Avatar
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    It will be silly to rate LD higher than LCW considering the lack of competition and motivation. CL has been bothered by shoulder injury during Sudirman Cup (even he overcame his opponents by not smashing much). Even LYB stated that LD might lose in the 1st round (you can also argue it is another mind game played by LYB).

    P/S: Everybody knows why LCW lost to BCL in China Open 2007.

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    LD meets CL, CL win
    LD meets LCW, LD win
    CL meets LCW, don't know, hope LCW win cause time is running out.

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    Cool BWF world championships

    You guys are not considering the up and coming youngsters like Xue Song and Tian Houwei..
    Quote Originally Posted by AlanY View Post
    these are the H2H between the 3 title contenders of the men's singles world title.
    the data are mainly from BWF's website with the added time history of their matches.

    if you look at their win/loss trend, LCW is most likely to get a win next since he lost his last 2 matches to both.
    so, it's LCW's advantage to make that 'next' match at the WC and LD and CL probably would like to meet him before to get that loss out of the way.

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    considering their ages, experience, form, H2H etc and China have the home advantage I'll put CL slightly ahead of both LD and LCW, and LD slightly ahead of LCW.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by bpman View Post
    You guys are not considering the up and coming youngsters like Xue Song and Tian Houwei..
    What's there to Xue Song and Tian Houwei in this thread as they are not at all in the WC list...??? And also, i have checked Xue song's matches and came to know that he has the habit of losing to japanese players in the tournaments he has taken part into.

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    Tian Houwei and Xue Song, of course, we will have to seriously consider them, provided they're eligible for the World Championships 2013?! Unfortunately they aren't and I'm beginning to miss them, and long to see them competing soon probably in tournaments after the WC, I hope. And more of WS Sun Yu too.

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    Nineteen-year-old Xue Song's foray in the adult international circuit were the AUS GPG'13 followed by the NZ GP'13 in both of which he appeared in the finals, the former beaten by compatriot, Tian Houwei, the conqueror of Lee CW, and the latter losing to JPN Riichi Takeshita. In that match vs R Takeshita, Xue Song was actually playing his 30th or more match in that month, so the defeat I'd say is understandable for his being somewhat jaded.

    I wonder how many MS can score two runner-ups successively in their first two adult international tournaments played. To me,that kind of result is highly commendable considering he scalped the likes of Taufik Hidayat,Nguyen Tien Minh, Alamsyah Yunus,Lee Dong Keun, Ajay Jayaram and incidentally beating another JPN player,Kazumasa Sakai. No doubt at junior level such as the WJC'12, he lost twice in tight 3-set encounters to Kento Momota but Xue Song has since outperformed him at the adult level based on the results.

    I'm confident Xue Song is a worldbeater as many have witnessed at the AUS and the NZ Opens aforementioned. And I trust we'll certainly see more of him in future continuing to make waves like he did in the only two adult events he's played so far. Note that CBA never sent their players to any adult international event lower than Grand Prix level, just not their policy I think.

  17. #17
    Regular Member AlanY's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by well-son View Post
    only these three for the MS title?
    Anyway, I really think one of these three will be the champion.
    My take:
    LCW 35%
    CL 35%
    LD 20%
    The rest 10%
    The main reason I rate LD lower than LCW and CL is because of lack of competitions, as we see CY/FHF's performance in Sudirman Cup.
    Should we have a poll for this?
    not sure how you come up with the percentages that IMO are unrealistically high.

    there are 6 rounds in the men's singles, one more than the normal superseries.
    let say, LCW (or anyone else) has a 90% winning chance for the 1st and 2nd rounds.
    75% chance for the last 16 and QF, and 50/50 for the semi and final.

    that equated to a probability of just over 11% to win the title!
    you can adjust the numbers slightly but still nowhere near.
    Last edited by AlanY; 07-01-2013 at 07:43 AM.

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