what do u think about china tc team is strong but 'fragile' they send more ms than md (5 ms, 2 and half md) the key to break china wall is to beat lin dan first, i'm sure their moral will be broke down , becos they (ms) are not sure about their md strength
After I watched what Taufik said on TV in his interview regarding his preparedness to play in the upcoming TC saying " I will never recover 100%", I am now pessimistic if Taufik will be able to defeat Lee Hyung Ill, LCW, let alone Lin dan due to his serious injury. I am trying to be realistic, that it is not realistic to force or expect Taufik to play as he did in his prime in the TC. WHile I am personally happy to hear that he go to Japan, I am only hoping that his injury will not get worse. Deep down I really want to see Indonesian players lift the thropy. However, taking the current condition of the players, seeing the boys in the final stage is "much more than happy" for me. AT this time, China and Malaysia are the strongest candidates to grab the cup. Assuming the China and Malaysia are to meet in the final...I hold Malaysia.
Lin Dan is vulnerable to: 1. Lee Chong Wei (Lin Dan lost in Malaysia Open) 2. Taufik (Lin Dan Lost in World Championship) 3. Peter Gade (Lin Dan lost in China Masters) So China is "fragile" when meeting Malaysia, Indonesia, and Denmark. Let's see how they do in neutral country "Japan", no home field advantage.
The venue is most unusual. Even its dubbed as TCUC.. the crowd in Japan is kinda reserved. Maybe the cheering is the team players and their own crowd.
Well, I guess for any team, if their MS #1 or MD#1 got an upset defeat, that's a moral drop, not only true for CHN. And don't under estimate CHN MD pairs, especially they have Cai/Fu as their #1. True, their MD might not be as top as their MS, but who wants to face Cai/Fu in a 21 point system? Even if LD loses, with another 4 matches left, any other team can not think ok, CHN is going down. They just have way too much weapons in pocket, and any one on their squard can put on a match (or, even have a good chance to win) against anyone.
I'm not with you. If your logic stands, all the above players had lost to Lin Dan before, are they vulnerable too? And Malaysia, Indonesia and Denmark are also "frafile" when meeting China too. In terms of skill level, the four players are not very far away to each other. I think it will depend on how they perform in the tournament and how they handle the pressure. IMO Malaysia, Indonesia, Denmark and China have equal chance to win the TC.
well, i think it's better to send 5 MS and 2.5 MD rather than 4 MS and 3 MD for China. It makes no difference for the 3rd MD pairs for china compared to other countries 2nd MD. Indonesia has Markis/Setiawan and Luluk/Alven, Denmark has Paaske/JR and Boe/Mogensen, Malaysia has LWW/CTF. I don't see any advantage China can get to send a 3rd pair. Ironically, sending Zheng Bo is just their strategy for mental strength in case China trails 1-2. Zheng Bo was the key member to win TC 2004 by beating Denmark's 2nd MD in the final to wrap up the match 3-1. He has the experience in such atmosphere, while Xie ZB and Guo ZD both new to TC. Li Yongbo's mind is to partner Zheng Bo with XZB in case the 1-2 situation happens. IHO, in such situation, an experienced player partnered with a new player is better than fielding two new TC players, which might fail to deliver due to pressure handling. The idea to send 5 MS is to ensure China's MS strength because China counts on MS. BCL just recovered from injury and his form remains unclear. CH is not very reliable in cup tournment (such as TC and SC) based on his record. Therefore, they need to send one more MS (XXZ) so that in case BCL and CH form is in doubt, they still have CJ and XXZ. China has a clear advantage with their MS as BCL, CJ and XXZ are all strongest 3rd MS among all countries. BCL and CJ can even be trusted to play 2nd MS. XXZ becomes countable again as the 21-point system gives advantage to veteran players. They can field players according to opponents head to head record, as Malaysia, Denmark, Indonesia and Korea has no alternative choice in their MS. One example: China vs Malaysia LD vs LCW. 51-49 FHF/CY vs CCM/KKK. 52-48 BCL vs WCH. 55-45 GZD/XZB vs LWW/CTF. 50-50 CJ vs Hafiz. 57-43 China can choose not to field CH as BCL's record against WCH is better, CJ's record against Hafiz is 2-0. (correct me if mistake) In similiar situation, BCL can play as 2nd MS in match with Denmark. Bao will have mental advantage against Jonassen from their last meet in TC. etc.
A strategy for both mental and physical concern, in case of injury / sickness, etc. Plus, Zheng Bo is more on the offensive side, which might be an advantage in the "fast than normal" 21 point system.
This is all still very 50-50 for everyone. Lin Dan does have his days when he is just on in good form. As for Taufik, if anyone remembers Japan Open 2005, he could still beat Peter Gade in the QF even though he was injured. He subsequently lost to Chen Hong tamely in the SF. So even when Taufik is injured, you shouldn't count him out. The new rally scoring system also makes matches a lot shorter and so that will not put older players or slightly injured players at a disadvantage. While China is weak at MD compared to Denmark and Indonesia, if anyone remembers Sang Yang/Zheng Bo could still defeat Paaske/Rasmussen at TC04 Final. Comapred to other teams, China is still the only team which could afford a little margin for error as all their players are generally very good. Unlike Indonesia where the ones who are expected to win must win their games or else they are finished.
I assume Denmark as trailing 0-1 before the match against China and Malaysia starts due to 3rd singles. Therefore they can only afford one lose from other matches
Hmm, like another poster mentioned, i think all the top contenders are "fragile"..Esp. looking at the current situation for all teams, esp. in the current play format (SDSDS), it'll really be a toss up between China, Malaysia and Denmark. Sorry to say, but with the current condition/circumstances, i doubt Indonesia has what it takes, esp. with Taufik's injury(even if he's not telling the whole truth whether his injury is really bad or not. And also remember what he said, after the TC Qualification round in India, abt the new scoring system?? It will be a surprise to me if their TC team goes to the SF. However, if it is (SSSDD), i'm quite sure China will come out on top.
Yes, concur also...Esp. the mental part, as I mentioned abt this in another post, that *experience* is a big factor, esp. in a team event. Whichever team has the "looser" mindset will probably come out on top..
I did not mean Zheng Bo's skill is better than any of the young guns. I was trying to say, select Zheng Bo as the extra "0.5" is due to the fact, he is experienced, and a good offensive player.
.... Humm don't really agree I have the impression that for you china = Lin Dan ... and that Lin dan doesn't feel comfortable with the 21 pts system .. But he won the World cup with this and he reached the semi final during the china masters .. If i'm refering to last team competions (sudirman and thomas cup ... ) China is really strong while they're playing together ... So for me they are absolutely not fragile but really really really HARD to beat !!
