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    Default LD vs. LCW (unforced errors)

    Just watched Swiss Final again. The statistical result is interesting.

    Unforced errors are defined as errors made when the player is in good balance and has enough time.

    G1: 13:21.
    LCW: 11--12 unforced errors at 0:0 (? -- hard to say unforced or not) ,0:1,0:2,1:5,1:7,1:8,2:10,3:11,6:13,7:16,7:17,9:18 ;
    LD: 4 unforced errors at 6:16, 8:18,9:19,10:19.

    G2: 18:21.
    LCW: 8--10 unforced errors at
    1:3, 10:6, 10:8, 10:9, 10:10(?), 11:13, 13:14, 13:15, 17:18(?), 18:20.
    LD: 8 unforced errors at
    1:4, 3:5, 8:6, 10:12, 12:14, 14:16, 15:16, 16:16.

    Conclusion: LD is mentally stronger, but towards the end of every game he will be a bit nervous.

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    base on your so call statistical trend analysis, LD will lose the 3rd set
    and will lose badly on the 4th set, and lcw will totally own LD on the 5th set LOL

    so in conclusion, cooler can beat LD on the 17th set if xxf let LD play with cooler all day long. LOL
    Last edited by cooler; 04-02-2008 at 06:04 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cooler View Post
    base on your so call statistical trend analysis, LD will lose the 3rd set
    and will lose badly on the 4th set, and lcw will totally own LD on the 5th set LOL

    so in conclusion, cooler can beat LD on the 17th set if xxf let LD play with cooler all day long. LOL
    Aha, but we haven't gone through YOUR unforced error chart yet. Your pattern may be worse than LD's , meaning XXF won't actually have to let LD deal with you that long

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    Quote Originally Posted by madbad View Post
    Aha, but we haven't gone through YOUR unforced error chart yet. Your pattern may be worse than LD's , meaning XXF won't actually have to let LD deal with you that long
    u r not looking at this logically
    will elaborate when i get home.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ye333 View Post
    Just watched Swiss Final again. The statistical result is interesting.

    Unforced errors are defined as errors made when the player is in good balance and has enough time.

    G1: 13:21.
    LCW: 11--12 unforced errors at 0:0 (? -- hard to say unforced or not) ,0:1,0:2,1:5,1:7,1:8,2:10,3:11,6:13,7:16,7:17,9:18 ;
    LD: 4 unforced errors at 6:16, 8:18,9:19,10:19.

    G2: 18:21.
    LCW: 8--10 unforced errors at
    1:3, 10:6, 10:8, 10:9, 10:10(?), 11:13, 13:14, 13:15, 17:18(?), 18:20.
    LD: 8 unforced errors at
    1:4, 3:5, 8:6, 10:12, 12:14, 14:16, 15:16, 16:16.

    Conclusion: LD is mentally stronger, but towards the end of every game he will be a bit nervous.
    Have you also invested the time to look at other players' unforced errors in each match as well? Someone can probably count all the unforced errors that Wacha made against LCW in the Swiss semi, and say that LCW didn't really won the match by being technically better, but mentally stronger than Wacha...

    When I play against a better player(than myself), I make a lot of forced and unforced errors, too... but do I go tell him that I lost to him because he is mentally stronger than I am? Hell... No...

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    Exclamation Statistical results do not always tell the whole story about a match

    Quote Originally Posted by ye333 View Post

    Just watched Swiss Final again. The statistical result is interesting.

    Unforced errors are defined as errors made when the player is in good balance and has enough time.

    .
    Even though "unforced errors" are defined as errors made when the player is in good balance and has enough time, we often find players trying to play "riskier shots", like trying to smash closer to the sidelines, or trying to play tighter net-play, etc, etc......

    Therefore, statistical results do not always tell the whole story about a match.
    .

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    Quote Originally Posted by bananakid View Post
    Have you also invested the time to look at other players' unforced errors in each match as well? Someone can probably count all the unforced errors that Wacha made against LCW in the Swiss semi, and say that LCW didn't really won the match by being technically better, but mentally stronger than Wacha...

    When I play against a better player(than myself), I make a lot of forced and unforced errors, too... but do I go tell him that I lost to him because he is mentally stronger than I am? Hell... No...
    Wacha FTW!!!!!

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    That's actually my point. If one player is in good balance and has enough time, yet choose to play risky shots which most of the time lead to him/her losing the point, he should change his shot-choice in the future.

    My interpretion is that LCW wanted to win too much and chose wrong shots in many cases. And this is the reason why LD won so comfortably. Just look at my statistics, LD made his first unforced error when he has almost won the first game. That's a sign of confidence and maturity.

    Quote Originally Posted by chris@ccc View Post
    .
    Even though "unforced errors" are defined as errors made when the player is in good balance and has enough time, we often find players trying to play "riskier shots", like trying to smash closer to the sidelines, or trying to play tighter net-play, etc, etc......

    Therefore, statistical results do not always tell the whole story about a match.
    .

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    First, if you started to make unforced errors from the very first point, that shows you are nervous, you are focusing on "winning the match" instead of "playing your best", in other words immature or mentally weak.

    Second, mental strength is the result of maturity and confidence, and indeed can affect much the game. I don't understand why you kept trying to treat it as unimportant.

    Lastly, notice that even if we disregard all the unforced errors, LD still leads LCW by a few points. So obviously my statistics doesn't deny that LD may be technically better.

    My conclusion is that LCW will have substantial chance beating LD if he can focus on every shot instead of the score. It would be nice if LCW can try this before OG, like LD did in Sudirman 2007 (where he obviously does not care much about winning but more about testing his new style)

    I am not a professional game analyst. I just did some statistics, found the result interesting to me, and therefore posted it to share with other people. If you think it's nonsense, you can

    1. simply ignore it, or
    2. do some research yourself, show your statistics and conclude that such statistics is meaningless.

    Quote Originally Posted by bananakid View Post
    Have you also invested the time to look at other players' unforced errors in each match as well? Someone can probably count all the unforced errors that Wacha made against LCW in the Swiss semi, and say that LCW didn't really won the match by being technically better, but mentally stronger than Wacha...

    When I play against a better player(than myself), I make a lot of forced and unforced errors, too... but do I go tell him that I lost to him because he is mentally stronger than I am? Hell... No...
    Last edited by ye333; 04-02-2008 at 09:20 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ye333 View Post
    That's actually my point. If one player is in good balance and has enough time, yet choose to play risky shots which most of the time lead to him/her losing the point, he should change his shot-choice in the future.

    My interpretion is that LCW wanted to win too much and chose wrong shots in many cases...
    You did a good job on your analysis and came up with a theory. I just want to make a comment on LCW playing risky shots. From watching some videos, I found very often players who did risky shots had little choice because they were technically not as good as their opponents. Very often they could not break the defense and at the same time face a relentless offense so out of desperation they went for the winner (risky shots), but ended up with even more unforced errors. I'm not sure whether LCW could have played his shots differently: Did he have a choice? (care to comment on this?)

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    I think there is a difference between doing risky shots later in the game, when it's clear that such shots are necessary to win, and doing risky shots from the very start, before the game is unwrapped.

    My opinion is this: if one player chose highly risky shots from the very start, this shows he is mentally unstable or he is gambling. Such gambling may be a good strategy when opponent is much stronger (for example, if Shoji Sato is playing LD). On the other hand, if the opponent is just slightly stronger, like in LCW vs. LD, LCW has good chance to win if LD is not in top form, so it is not wise to gamble from the very start.

    In Swiss Open final, LCW made unforced errors from the very start. Before he had any chance to test LD's form. This is not what confident/mature players would do. In contrast, if we look at LD or TH's games, they always play the first few points safely, and use those points to test their opponents.

    Quote Originally Posted by Birdwood View Post
    You did a good job on your analysis and came up with a theory. I just want to make a comment on LCW playing risky shots. From watching some videos, I found very often players who did risky shots had little choice because they were technically not as good as their opponents. Very often they could not break the defense and at the same time face a relentless offense so out of desperation they went for the winner (risky shots), but ended up with even more unforced errors. I'm not sure whether LCW could have played his shots differently: Did he have a choice? (care to comment on this?)

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    Quote Originally Posted by ye333 View Post
    I think there is a difference between doing risky shots later in the game, when it's clear that such shots are necessary to win, and doing risky shots from the very start, before the game is unwrapped.

    My opinion is this: if one player chose highly risky shots from the very start, this shows he is mentally unstable or he is gambling. Such gambling may be a good strategy when opponent is much stronger (for example, if Shoji Sato is playing LD). On the other hand, if the opponent is just slightly stronger, like in LCW vs. LD, LCW has good chance to win if LD is not in top form, so it is not wise to gamble from the very start.

    In Swiss Open final, LCW made unforced errors from the very start. Before he had any chance to test LD's form. This is not what confident/mature players would do. In contrast, if we look at LD or TH's games, they always play the first few points safely, and use those points to test their opponents.
    I see your points there. Maybe that's why LD seems always a slow starter and often doing catch up in the game one. Never understood before, thanks for pointing out the difference.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ye333 View Post
    I think there is a difference between doing risky shots later in the game, when it's clear that such shots are necessary to win, and doing risky shots from the very start, before the game is unwrapped.

    My opinion is this: if one player chose highly risky shots from the very start, this shows he is mentally unstable or he is gambling. Such gambling may be a good strategy when opponent is much stronger (for example, if Shoji Sato is playing LD). On the other hand, if the opponent is just slightly stronger, like in LCW vs. LD, LCW has good chance to win if LD is not in top form, so it is not wise to gamble from the very start.

    In Swiss Open final, LCW made unforced errors from the very start. Before he had any chance to test LD's form. This is not what confident/mature players would do. In contrast, if we look at LD or TH's games, they always play the first few points safely, and use those points to test their opponents.
    u got it totally backward
    LD has the upper hand and it was LD who is feeling out lcw and not the other way.
    In present form, LD has the play style arsenals (ie. answers) to counter any players out there, be it taufik, lcw, PG, bcl, CJ, etc. Whether it was intentional or not, it seem lcw/misbun enter the match against LD with no specific game plan. Sure those players can test all they want and see what play style LD is using but unfortunately for them, it will be too late to catch up because LD is about to polishes them off
    Last edited by cooler; 04-03-2008 at 12:27 AM.

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    i like to add that under NSS, it will COSTS u points to test your opponent and the execution has to be flawless if one want to catch up and wn under NSS.

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    While you all are discussing this "unforced error" thingy, Misbun said to one of the malay press that LCW losses to CJ & LD in Europe was due to change of styles when playing LCW. CJ & LD changed their usual style to counter LCW. BCL's style remained the same, from what Misbun observed in BCL matches, although LCW didnt meet BCL in AE & SO.
    Therefore, Misbun said he & LCW would find strategies to counter these "new" styles. Of course Misbun wouldnt mention what those strategies are or what exactly CJ & LD's new strategies that he saw.

    You all can take a look at the vids again & see what Misbun meant.

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    Well, just watch LD vs. LHI. LHI used the whole first game to test LD and adjust the form of himself. He did very well in the following two games. You can also watch LD vs. PSH. PSH didn't try any risky shots, and it turned out that LD was not in top form that day (according to TSF, LD was not in bad form either). LCW panicked from the very start, and he lost without learning anything.

    You are talking like LD is God.

    Quote Originally Posted by cooler View Post
    u got it totally backward
    LD has the upper hand and it was LD who is feeling out lcw and not the other way.
    In present form, LD has the play style arsenals (ie. answers) to counter any players out there, be it taufik, lcw, PG, bcl, CJ, etc. Whether it was intentional or not, it seem lcw/misbun enter the match against LD with no specific game plan. Sure those players can test all they want and see what play style LD is using but unfortunately for them, it will be too late to catch up because LD is about to polishes them off

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    In Swiss Final, whenever LCW chose safer shots and a more passive mode, he could at least match LD. Then he tried some risky shots and gave a few points in a row to LD.

    Quote Originally Posted by eaglehelang View Post
    While you all are discussing this "unforced error" thingy, Misbun said to one of the malay press that LCW losses to CJ & LD in Europe was due to change of styles when playing LCW. CJ & LD changed their usual style to counter LCW. BCL's style remained the same, from what Misbun observed in BCL matches, although LCW didnt meet BCL in AE & SO.
    Therefore, Misbun said he & LCW would find strategies to counter these "new" styles. Of course Misbun wouldnt mention what those strategies are or what exactly CJ & LD's new strategies that he saw.

    You all can take a look at the vids again & see what Misbun meant.

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