Will Lee Chong Wei remain World No.1 until the 2012 OG?

[Oldhand]

Reading the title "Lee Chong Wei to remain as World No. 1 until the 2012 Olympic Games", I thought the BWF had decided to keep Chong Wei at No. 1 until London

Since it's clear that chris is only speculating, the title is amended to a question

[eaglehelang]

.............

People who have said lcw takes part in tournaments as part of his training due to lack of good sparring partners may have a point. But others who have said that taking part in so many minor tournaments harms his chances in the big tournaments (WC and Olympics) also present a valid argument. I think if LCW really wants to win the big tournaments then he might need to find a balance and sacrafice some ranking points. But shame i dont see him doing it.

1) LCW taking part due to lack of good sparring partners : "People" say that cos Misbun said that in the press, at least 2X.
2) Taking part in some minor tournaments (Like India Open) has already been explained, is part of contract obligation to Yonex.

3) LCW already said he will take part less (wherever possible) in later part of 2009. The Budget from NSC is also less this year

4) One point that many missed, either Rashid or Misbun mentioned one time that LCW has to go so many tourneys cos if not, the MS dept has nothing to show. Which means they need the results to show the bosses and the back up MS arent rising up yet (same with most countries too).
But this was end of 2008, now economy down, sure go less tourney.

5) As I already mentioned many times, either WR#1 or WR#2 doesnt make much difference to LCW in terms of incentive from BAM - no 1 & 2 gets same quarterly incentive. That ranking has to be maintained 3 to 4 months, so LCW just have to maintain WR#2 enough already. Unless,of course, Yonex has given LCW different deal.

6) Of course, the other reason of maintaining WR#1, is the draw, but I dont see it being favourable.

LD doesnt have to participate so many tourneys cos Team China is signed with Li Ning now, seems they dont sign with Yonex, so not obligated to participate in Yonex sponsored tourneys. And BAM's other main sponsor Proton might have certain requirements too.

[chris-ccc]

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ctjcad ... Thank you for providing the data.

The data over the last decade shows why Lee Chong Wei, Lin Dan, Peter Gade and Taufik Hidayat are so special. To be in the top rankings, not only their skill level is necessary, but also their participation rate.

Players from China are currently ranked lower than they should. It is because of their lower participation rate. Not only in the CHN Mens Singles, but also in the Womens Singles, Womens Doubles and Mixed Doubles.

IMHO, Chen Long will come into the top rankings when CHN decides to participate in more tournaments (with him included). As Chen Long rises, probably Bao Chun Lai will fade away.
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[chris-ccc]

Reading the title "Lee Chong Wei to remain as World No. 1 until the 2012 Olympic Games", I thought the BWF had decided to keep Chong Wei at No. 1 until London

Since it's clear that chris is only speculating, the title is amended to a question

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Thank you Oldhand for amending the title.
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[ctjcad]

....
The data over the last decade shows why Lee Chong Wei, Lin Dan, Peter Gade and Taufik Hidayat are so special. To be in the top rankings, not only their skill level is necessary, but also their participation rate.

Players from China are currently ranked lower than they should. It is because of their lower participation rate. Not only in the CHN Mens Singles, but also in the Womens Singles, Womens Doubles and Mixed Doubles.

IMHO, Chen Long will come into the top rankings when CHN decides to participate in more tournaments (with him included). As Chen Long rises, probably Bao Chun Lai will fade away.
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..as already mentioned by others in this thread.
The point is, there's no guarantee LCW or other current top 10 ranked players will stay where they are til 2012 OG. Too much unknown variables, uncontrollable factors & good players to take into account.

The only way, reasonably & at the same time unforeseeably to happen, for LCW to stay on top WR #1 til the 2012 OG is if the rest of the world ranked players decide to compete in 1/3 or 1/2 of the yearly SS tourneys and LCW decides to compete in all of the SS tourneys, from now til 2012.

As for BCL "fading away", i won't be surprised to see that..

Good to know the thread's titles had been "fairly" amended..

[ye333]

As if to support my analysis, CJ just pulled out of BAC to prepare for Sudirman (and treat his chronicle waist injury).

The situation is, all the players that have the ability to challenge LCW can be divided into the following categories

1. choose to attend only a few SSs (LD)
2. too old to consistently win titles (PG, TH)
3. have severe injury problems (BCL, CJ, SDK)



CL will surely rise up to top 10 if given the chance, but No.1 is still clearly out of his reach.

..as already mentioned by others in this thread.
The point is, there's no guarantee LCW or other current top 10 ranked players will stay where they are til 2012 OG. Too much unknown variables, uncontrollable factors & good players to take into account.

The only way, reasonably & at the same time unforeseeably to happen, for LCW to stay on top WR #1 til the 2012 OG is if the rest of the world ranked players decide to compete in 1/3 or 1/2 of the yearly SS tourneys and LCW decides to compete in all of the SS tourneys, from now til 2012.

As for BCL "fading away", i won't be surprised to see that..

Good to know the thread's titles had been "fairly" amended..

[chris-ccc]

As long as Chen Long is given the opportunities to compete, which imo they should strongly go for, his ranking will move up quite a bit. How long or fast he'll move up, imo, it depends how many tournaments he's being sent to.

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In just a few hours' time Chen Long will be playing his first match (Round 1) at the 2009 Badminton Asia Championships (Suwon, Korea).

Will Chen Long's World Ranking move up after this tournament?
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[Wong8Egg]

Many people predict CH or XXZ will play until 08OG after the 04 edition, but they are simply wrong. Aside from the rising young guns who took over their spot, their performance also dropped drastically (XXZ especially). 4 years is a long time in sport, let alone remain in World No.1.

I think CJ and CL will be the biggest threat in the short-coming, and LD has the ability to take over anyday if he and team Chain decided to. This is not going to be easy for LCW.

[chris-ccc]

...... 4 years is a long time in sport, let alone remain in World No.1.

I think CJ and CL will be the biggest threat in the short-coming, and LD has the ability to take over anyday if he and team Chain decided to. This is not going to be easy for LCW.

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LCW stated that he would continue until the 2012 Olympic Games. My predictions are never that good, usually only 50% correct.

We witnessed that CHN is not that keen anymore to regain the World No.1 MS Ranking. Because of this, it seems that LCW could have a good chance of continuing to remain as the World No.1 until the 2012 Olympic Games.

This thread is created to monitor players who could come forward to challenge Lee Chong Wei.


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[ye333]

The situation is in fact totally different... The "rising young guns" (LD, BCL, LCW) after 04 OG were much stronger than those "rising guns" today, and there are "not-so-old guns" (PG, TH, LHI, KJ) who were at least the same level as XXZ and CH. In other words, the "environment" was much harder then for XXZ and CH.

Furthermore CH may indeed be able to play till 08 if he was not kicked out of the national team (and thus lost the superior training resource).

Many people predict CH or XXZ will play until 08OG after the 04 edition, but they are simply wrong. Aside from the rising young guns who took over their spot, their performance also dropped drastically (XXZ especially). 4 years is a long time in sport, let alone remain in World No.1.

I think CJ and CL will be the biggest threat in the short-coming, and LD has the ability to take over anyday if he and team Chain decided to. This is not going to be easy for LCW.

[ctjcad]

As if to support my analysis, CJ just pulled out of BAC to prepare for Sudirman (and treat his chronicle waist injury).

The situation is, all the players that have the ability to challenge LCW can be divided into the following categories

1. choose to attend only a few SSs (LD)
2. too old to consistently win titles (PG, TH)
3. have severe injury problems (BCL, CJ, SDK)



CL will surely rise up to top 10 if given the chance, but No.1 is still clearly out of his reach.

..and guess where were LCW and LD, around the same time as now, after the 2000 OG??..Can you spot their WR then??..And compare their WR before, during and after the 2004 OG. And guess how long it took for them to reach their standing, just after the 2004 OG??..

I'm not saying Dragon Chen will be "the one" to challenge LCW and all the top players or reach the no.1 ranking, but he is "one to look out for"..in the near future..

[koo_fan]

I'm not saying Dragon Chen will be "the one" to challenge LCW and all the top players or reach the no.1 ranking, but he is "one to look out for"..in the near future..

That's how it should go.Chen Long is, for sure, have a great potential, by looking at his "I beat WR1 when i was seeded 100++." You can different interpretation but i think it wasn't ordinary.
whether he's going to make it or not, it's still not the time for judgement.

Lee Chong Wei is capable to keep his WR1, for quite some times. While waiting for the juniors who can challenged him to groom a little bit more, Lee Chong Wei has less to worry about. Others are not so interested with Rankings and all.
Lee Chong Wei and his coach should be able to secure major titles, though.
It'll be cool, and this can shut the criticizers' mouth up.

[ctjcad]

...
Lee Chong Wei and his coach should be able to secure major titles, though.
It'll be cool, and this can shut the criticizers' mouth up.

..i hope that won't stir up another round of "Lovey Dovey Talk" from Pemuda..

[danielwong]

answer should be "NO"
i think LCW concern now should be winning major titles,
AE, OG, WC.....at least one of this title...
WR 1 is nothing for him now
like LD.....eventhough LD is not WR 1, but everybody knew he is the best around
LCW should focus on that rather than thinking of maintaining as WR 1 on paper...

[Oldhand]

Aside from the thread's topic, it's strange that many here see Chen Long as a threat to the top players.

Judging by his game at the India Open, he is hardly a great player. Yes, he is tall and powerfully built but his current skills are woefully inadequate to take on any of the senior players.

A fighter like Nguyen Tien Minh or Kuan Beng Hong or a clever player like Taufik Hidayat or Peter Gade would murder the Chen Long of today.

His footwork in his semifinal against Hafiz Hashim was embarrassing, although that could be due to the tricky nature of the Malaysian's game.

If Chen Long is champion material, we are talking about a few years ahead.
Right now, he is just another age-disguised China player pretending to be a junior.

Any threat to Lee Chong Wei (or Lin Dan) won't be coming from Chen Long.

[chris-ccc]

Aside from the thread's topic, it's strange that many here see Chen Long as a threat to the top players.

Judging by his game at the India Open, he is hardly a great player. Yes, he is tall and powerfully built but his current skills are woefully inadequate to take on any of the senior players.

A fighter like Nguyen Tien Minh or Kuan Beng Hong or a clever player like Taufik Hidayat or Peter Gade would murder the Chen Long of today.

His footwork in his semifinal against Hafiz Hashim was embarrassing, although that could be due to the tricky nature of the Malaysian's game.

If Chen Long is champion material, we are talking about a few years ahead.
Right now, he is just another age-disguised China player pretending to be a junior.

Any threat to Lee Chong Wei (or Lin Dan) won't be coming from Chen Long.

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At the 2009 BAC (Badminton Asia Championships) at Suwon, Korea (April 7-12), Chen Long will be on show again.

In Round 2, Chen Long will have his rematch with Hafiz Hashim. This match will commence tonight, Wednesday 8-April-2009, at 8:05pm (Korean time).

Let's have another look at Chen Long again.
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[limsy]

..and guess where were LCW and LD, around the same time as now, after the 2000 OG??..Can you spot their WR then??..And compare their WR before, during and after the 2004 OG. And guess how long it took for them to reach their standing, just after the 2004 OG??..

lindan already the top seed in 2004 og while lcw is

A fighter like Nguyen Tien Minh or Kuan Beng Hong or a clever player like Taufik Hidayat or Peter Gade would murder the Chen Long of today.

how about the lazy hafiz?