Sky is falling again!

Discussion in 'Chit-Chat' started by silentheart, Oct 16, 2009.

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  1. silentheart

    silentheart Regular Member

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    OK guys, no international politics except making fun of BO.

    Mark my words. This is beginning of the fall again...

    Dow went up with no PE nor employment number to back up the future spending. And guess what, Labor dept just out out good weekly numbers and revise it the following week.

    This is what happen after a Sunday night party. You get a hang over on Monday and still have to go to work...
     
  2. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    actually, the better the rest of the world recovers, the worser off for the US. USD isn't cratering as much only because china owns so much of their treasuries that china has influence on the USD as well. It's like the frog and crane scenario i had illustrated before.

    On dow 10000, it's from the cash ($800 billions) for clunkers (banks and auto plants) effect.
     
  3. silentheart

    silentheart Regular Member

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    Agree on that good frogging example.:D
     
  4. ctjcad

    ctjcad Regular Member

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    For a second..

    - I thought you were going to title the thread "Has the sky stopped falling?" (after reading extremenanopowe's jubilant post after the stock market hits 10,000)..:p
    - Yeah, this stock market upsurge seems to be superficial..should extremenanopowe lessen his exuberance?..
    - Concur with the unemployment number and its highly chance of rising as the big black eye in the U.S. economy. The govt. and current admin. seem to downplay it by providing us with "positive" numbers..
    - If not mistaken, i read before, maybe in the other locked thread, that the next bubble to burst is the commercial real estate sector. What's the signal? Well, many smaller banks are closing or going bankrupt now and they are actually the holders/lenders of many of those commercial real estate loans. The bigger banks (Citi, Lehman Bros etc.) don't hold many of those loans as they're more focused on consumer credit services.

    what's your take, silentheart & cooler? is that the next bubble to burst?
     
    #4 ctjcad, Oct 16, 2009
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2009
  5. silentheart

    silentheart Regular Member

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    The next bubble to burst is the big one I let out in the swimming pool. That I can guarantee.:D:D:D
     
  6. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    hahhahaha, my question is , from 'which' orifice of your:confused::p
     
  7. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    well, since commercial real estate outlook is highly anticipated, the gov't would try to do some preventative actions to lessen the blow which is unlike the banking crises before where everyone were still partying right up to mid 2008. The current low lending rates are helping. On US unemployment, the figures floating around is 9-10% i think. I really think the really figure is closer to 15-17% easy

    i understand where's extremenanopowe sentiment coming from, he has the advantage of boleh training which i didn't have. He is much more prepare for any downturn than i do. i envy those bolehers.
     
    #7 cooler, Oct 16, 2009
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  8. silentheart

    silentheart Regular Member

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    You don't want to be anywhere near me...

    The truth is, no one can tell. Here is my take.
    1) Unemployment rate. How high will it go? If it hit 11% by mid next year, the housing will hurt even more. Also, consumer will stop buying because there is no money. People has money will stash it away for the raining day. Then commercial real estate will suffer next year. Just wait till CIT goes down...
    2) Companies are beating estimates by cutting cost. So what happend when you cut all the employees and the only thing left is Sr. Management? If I am the CEO, I just take out as much loan from my company and let the company fold. The commercial bank will handle the loss.
    3) Cost cutting means cutting tech spending also. That means IBM and Dell and etc will suffer because no body is buying new computers and when IBM contract comes up in 2 or 3 years, companies will negotiate lower rate or non-renew contract.
    4) By cutting employments, state will go further into red on budget. ie, non-union people will get cut first and create problems with union people. When is the last time the politicians pass a law to cut their pay? Cut 10% of expense mean cut 10% of work force from the people works for government, not 10% off the governor and state politicians.
    5) Inflation is going to kick in eventually. That mean the people who is on fix income right now will have less money to buy food and other things. I am very serious when I say this. BUY your badminton gears now. The price is going up next year because dollar is weak and inflation is coming.
    6) When we have more unemployed people, guess what, it is going to deplete Medicare fund faster. What will happen to the public option DamACrap so love? Just take a look at MA plan right now. Public option will balance only when you have continuous increase in income. When revenue decrease, cuts are needed. But that is not going to happen...
    7) So what if the tax increase is not fast enough for BO 2 years down the road, how is he going to keep budget under control?

    With this 7 points. My conclusion for the next bubble to burst and the biggest one to end all is the United State Bubble. Say 2012?
     
  9. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    i can't capture all your points but here is one quick one.
    feather shuttles come from china and the chinese economy is growing at measly 6% (lol) in the current 'bad' time. When world economy picks up, china will grow at +8% easy. The chinese worker making feather birds don't care if US economy is in the dog tank, asian workers in SE asia want their cost of living raises. U get the picture now. 2 years ago i had touted feather prices will go higher faster than consumer price index. Outlook has not changed for me. (not only prices going up, as members have experienced, quality is going down at the same time, real cost is actually much much higher. ex the A- grade cost u more at the same time its quality went down to B to B+ quality)*.

    *except for a few brands like yonex which i am familiar with
     
    #9 cooler, Oct 16, 2009
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2009
  10. ctjcad

    ctjcad Regular Member

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    I can hear the thunder in the distance..

    - I heard some estimates, next yr the unemployment rate will be between 10%-11% nationally, with a more realistic chance of it falling back to where we are today, at least til the 2010 mid-term election. And if that happens, then i can say good riddance to the Dems-controlled House and princess Pelosi, prince Reid.

    - The smaller banks will feel the squeeze even more.

    - I wonder if Dell and IBM are shaking in their boots?

    - It's already happening in CA. "Cuts" is like a popular word these days. Bankruptcy is not far from happening.

    - We're just waiting for inflation to kick in anytime soon. No, i'm not buying any more baddy gears unless i know their value will go up..:p

    - The Dems and all of the Obamacare H.C. reform supporters are supporting it blindly. They're pretending to not mind paying more (40% more) taxes because it will strengthen the country and it will be beneficial to those who need it. Wait til their pockets get hit by the taxes.

    - Simple. He & all his supporters will still blame W for the mess and the deficit.

    ..i think in 2012, it could be the "HOPE & CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN" Bubble to burst..:(
     
    #10 ctjcad, Oct 16, 2009
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2009
  11. silentheart

    silentheart Regular Member

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    Sorry, I stand correct my statement. The HIGH (7%+) inflation will kick in eventually.

    May be one day, it will be cheaper to USD as wall paper than actually go out and buy real wall paper.
     
  12. silentheart

    silentheart Regular Member

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    This is what tick me off. Gov ask worker to take days off without pay to reduce budget pressure. How about the damn governor and the state legislative people? Here in IL, they take pay increase and on top of that, they take white glove money as usual.
     
  13. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    let me put my record in bf, i say the next bubble is bond/bond fund
     
  14. FEND.

    FEND. Regular Member

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    So your nominal interest rate is lower than inflation rates atm?? >_< WTF?
     
  15. silentheart

    silentheart Regular Member

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    1) I never say when inflation hit 7+% per year or higher, the nominal interest rate is lower or higher than inflation (in normal time should always >= inflation or cost of borrowing money will be neg)
    2) Yes nominal rate can be lower than inflation. That mean the real interest rate is neg. Look back to US in 1980. The nominal rate is about 8% while inflation was about 13%.
    3) When fed or treasury do not act fast enough, the inflation out run nominal rate can happen.
    4) What do you mean atm? do you mean at this moment? I never say it is not not. I just looked up the US treasury rate for 1 yr for 9/2009. The rate is about 0.40%. The inflation for 9/2009 is -1.29% per year. So the real rate of return is about 1.69%. It is about the same at this moment. However, no one can tell what fed or treasury will do 1 year from now. I am just saying the inflation will hit 7+% in 1 or 2 year time frame.
    5) I am in the inflation camp. There are other economists worry about the inflation. Also there are economists on the deflation boat. Who knows...

    That is why it is so exciting to see everything unfold in my life time.
    And sorry, if I was not clear earlier.
     
  16. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    http://www.americanthinker.com/prin...ricanthinker.com/2009/10/the_45000_purse.html

    October 17, 2009
    The $450.00 purse
    By L. Jenkins

    One hundred-and-twenty-five "At Risk" seventeen to twenty-four year old, paid $8.15 an hour to attend high school with money from the Stimulus package. A report from the trenches.

    "Four-hundred and fifty dollars!" Shaqueenda purred as she paraded the pretentious brown leather purse past her friends. The summer stimulus students, earning $8.00 an hour to attend school, had gathered in the atrium showing off their purchases.


    "My whole wardrobe isn't worth that!" I blurted out. She iced my comment with a bone chilling glare. I backed away and watched as Vonisha and Soltaire matched her gasconade with the hundreds they disbursed on acrylic fingernails, coral reef hair sets, and skin tight ensembles. These young ladies, learning the arts of ground-beautification left empty pop cans, chip bags, and candy-bar wrappers littering their benches when they moseyed away to their instructional assignment.


    "Girls," I interrupted, pointing at the litter. Sullenly they turned and picked up their trash. Carlson's critique still resonated in my thoughts.


    "If I catch them sitting on their fat butts eating chips one more time, I'm bootin' ‘em out of my program too!" The diligent custodian cursed after hauling them to my office. The disgust on his face told me their charms had worn thin. To earn their $64.00 a day, these three, eighteen to twenty-four year old girls were scheduled to clean for five hours and study Math, English, and Life Skills for three hours. After only a few weeks they had parlayed their lunch into an hour and fifteen minute feast, and turned their breaks into thirty-minute romantic interludes with the candy machines.


    Theirs weren't the only spending shocks, when the Obama stimulus checks arrived. Students, who had attended every day of the first two weeks and had filled out their daily timesheets, and placed correct addresses on their W-2 forms, received a check for $640.00. Cash in hand, one-hundred and twenty-five low income, low achieving, adult high school students went on a government furnished spending spree.


    Two Polynesian girls rewarded themselves with tribal tattoos. On other anatomies, Obama money was magically transformed into interlocking hearts, mystical unicorns, ferocious tigers, hollow skulls, tongue licking dragons, and momentarily cherished names. Ronisha, a mother of two children, spent her money on a baroque neck tattoo displaying her babies' names. Armando took all of his money and applied it towards his $800.00 speeding ticket, received for meritorious conduct while flying across an overpass at a hundred miles an hour. Jason put a down payment on a car, unperturbed that he had no insurance, no high school diploma, was not in line to receive one, and the car payments extended thirty-four months past his final summer stimulus check.


    Hernandez prided himself on investing his entire check with his mother's ex-boyfriend. Joseph cashed his check, got drunk, and passed out, a roll of bills spilling out of his pocket. He woke up, hours later, the party over, his bankroll missing. Two girls proudly funded their boyfriends' weekend bacchanal at local strip joints and Stevy Vaughn, a once stimulated student, was overcome with remorse after experiencing a financially devastating familial tryst. Having been caught sleeping with the sister of his baby's mother, he found himself booted from the apartment, the day before his check arrived. His irate former paramour retrieved his mail, opened his check, forged his name and cashed it. Not only wouldn't she let him have any of his money, but she vowed she was keeping his next three checks as well. The district required a minimum of thirty days to change a mailing address.


    Part of the program was financial training. Knowing most of these young adults never had a steady source of legal income, part of the grant was teaching them wise money management. An hour each day was devoted to understanding banking, setting up budgets, value shopping, deciding between needs and wants, making dollars stretch, and starting savings accounts.


    Theory didn't transfer to practice. Dress codes be damned, the boys arrived in oversized gang ornamented t-shirts, expensive flat billed ball caps, shin length pants with tigers decorating the back pockets, and hundred dollar tennis shoes. They followed Obama's orders implicitly and spent, spent, spent, rather than the school's counsel to save. The girls were worse; they arrived at school in a truckload of tight fitting bosom popper tops, with slinky, tourniquet tight, plumber-butt-shorts, while teetering on stiletto heels. Overnight we took on the appearance of a bordello.

    As the money dwindled, and the spending fix stopped, angry words filled the circle of students around the cafeteria tables. "I got $640.00," One would say.

    "I only got $580.00." Another countered.

    "I got $610.00! I worked just as hard as you! They're cheatin' me!"


    "Find Jenkins!" The lynch mob smelled blood. Often records showed students signed in but never signed out. To be cute many had autographed their timesheets in pink, which showed transparent on a copier, and the payroll clerk put them down as absent. On other occasions their foggy minds cleared when staring at a blank timecard and realized they really weren't in school that day. Once a girl signed in with a different last name, her romance the night before had been so profound she was sure it would result in marriage. A couple times the clerk made mistakes but usually errors were attributed to the student. Apologies for the unfounded tribunals were non existent.


    Following each payday, nefarious characters in a dark Cadillac skirted the parking lot, giving rise to the clouds of happy smoke the restrooms belched. One skinny, sickly white girl who worked in the cafeteria attended faithfully for the first month. Her attendance fell off dramatically over the final weeks. Upon inquiry, friends told a sad tale of hard drugs and harder parties followed by a delirium of time, place, and bedmates. Lorna showed up one day with a giant purple bruise on her face, where, with the help of a fist sized rock, her roommate had administered fidelity training, because Lorna had seduced her boyfriend.


    A few saved money for school. One hard working girl from Somalia and another from Botswana guarded every dime, anxious to attend classes at the local community college. A couple boys saved for their tuition at a trade school, and one Chinese boy saved his money for a plane ticket to Hawaii, where, upon graduation, he was guaranteed a job in his uncle's restaurant. Sadly the majority of the money slipped through the students' hands like water and ended up in iPods, cell phones, candy machines, exchanged for alcohol at convenience stores, slipped into the garters of strippers, and piddled away on flashy clothes that now lay in piles on bedroom floors.
     
  17. ctjcad

    ctjcad Regular Member

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    ^^It should been the other way around..^^

    ..those stimulus money should go to the retirees. Esp. now, the Congress and the WH admin. are planning to release $250 stimulus checks to SS recipients to "help boost" the economy back.
    But then, some of them would head on down to Las Vegas or Pechanga casinos and use the money for some jackpot machine action.:eek:
    Young folks should be receiving as little "free" money as possible from the govt.:eek:
     
  18. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    inflation is still benign, BO should save that increase when inflation kicks in
     
  19. silentheart

    silentheart Regular Member

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  20. ctjcad

    ctjcad Regular Member

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    ^^The way i see it..^^

    ..his promise of HOPE and CHANGE will probably come in 2 ways:
    The HOPE is that the partisan health-care reform bill will arrive in his desk for him to sign by this yr.
    The CHANGE, he is hoping will not happen, could probably come by the mid-term election, next yr.
     
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