The sky has finally fallen...

[taneepak]

Yes, the whole western economies are almost drowning in huge debt. Yet there is a distinct but very important difference between Europe's and the US's debts. One is a runaway horse-driven wagon without a rider to reign it in, the other still has a boss.
This is interesting reading by Nobel Prize laureate Michael Spence http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion...nt_9875910.htm

[extremenanopowe]

the market just wont go down...

China has its problem?

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-update2-.html

This type of biz is pretty common I guess? U notice?

http://en.secretchina.com/news/3208.html

[taneepak]

the market just wont go down...

China has its problem?

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-update2-.html

This type of biz is pretty common I guess? U notice?

http://en.secretchina.com/news/3208.html

Yes, China is tightening its monetary policy and as a reesult borrowing now becomes more expensive, hence the low bond sales. This is a managed approach to try to rein in inflation and prevent a property bubble.

There are many Chinese and Tibetan dissidents' websites or blogs that lambast China. The more they blast China the more funding they get to stay afloat. Ever heard of Google vs China a few months ago?

[extremenanopowe]

am waiting for DOW 9000. achieveable?

[silentheart]

am waiting for DOW 9000. achieveable?

It is only another 9%. Why not?

[taneepak]

It all depends on how the Europeans are going to respond to this problem. Yesterday it was Greece; today the speculators are circling around Spain and waiting to have a feeding frenzy. Of the 4 big EU countries only Germany and France can withstand the storm. The UK and Italy have a lot of fat to cut. But cutting too much will kill their GDP because then there will be not enough money to buy goods and services.
Remember Iceland? It was regarded as the country with one of the highest if not the highest standard of living in the world before the crash. In a way the US and most European countries enjoy a high standard of living based on debt and more debt. But all debts have to be paid back. That is not so easy when they are so huge.

[ctjcad]

am waiting for DOW 9000. achieveable?

It is only another 9%. Why not?

..by the end of this yr??..sure, why not...

What we're seeing now in Europe is a good preview of what's probably to come to the U.S., esp. with the spending spree by the current govt...
One world govt. and one world currency, here we come...

[Yoppy]

Why wait? to buy? how about shorting it now?

[Yoppy]

am waiting for DOW 9000. achieveable?

Why wait? to buy? how about shorting it now?

[taneepak]

Why wait? to buy? how about shorting it now?

Yes you can, but what if it doesn't come down and instead goes up? Usually when you sell short it is with leverage to get the biggest bang for the buck. But the bang can blow in your face.
The safest way is not to be greedy and just use your solid cash to buy at levels you think are worth buying. This way, if it goes either way you will not be wiped out if the tide turns the wrong way and you can smile if it turns the other way.

[Yoppy]

Yes indeed, its very risky. Bloomberg and CNBC these days are dominated by 2 sides of people trying to convince viewers, ones saying Greek (or the world market) will go down and the others are more bullish.

What do you guys think?

Personally I think its a short term correction, no more than 20% off last month peak. Here in Australia many talk about 4000 points defense line for the ASX200. Today we are at 4307 down from almost 5100 just a month ago, thats almost 16% decline. The fact that we dont hear any bad news (in fact we hear many good news apart from the Europe) indicates that traders are fleeing in a bit of panic, reasonably.

To certain extend the current Euro situation is very similar to 1997 Asian financial crisis, the difference is the current is detected early. I still clearly remember in 1997 INA rupiah became a rubbish, no one want to hold it and inflation up to the sky. Company after company went down, and its assets were neglected. It took many years to repair the damage. The failed companies were transferred under INA govt control and later were sold off (some are cheaply) to pay its debt. Today INA is trailing only to CHN and IND in terms of GDP growth. I found this below article very good for those who want to know more about INA:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a9xRYqRY.sN0

[cooler]

Yes indeed, its very risky. Bloomberg and CNBC these days are dominated by 2 sides of people trying to convince viewers, ones saying Greek (or the world market) will go down and the others are more bullish.

What do you guys think?

Personally I think its a short term correction, no more than 20% off last month peak. Here in Australia many talk about 4000 points defense line for the ASX200. Today we are at 4307 down from almost 5100 just a month ago, thats almost 16% decline. The fact that we dont hear any bad news (in fact we hear many good news apart from the Europe) indicates that traders are fleeing in a bit of panic, reasonably.

To certain extend the current Euro situation is very similar to 1997 Asian financial crisis, the difference is the current is detected early. I still clearly remember in 1997 INA rupiah became a rubbish, no one want to hold it and inflation up to the sky. Company after company went down, and its assets were neglected. It took many years to repair the damage. The failed companies were transferred under INA govt control and later were sold off (some are cheaply) to pay its debt. Today INA is trailing only to CHN and IND in terms of GDP growth. I found this below article very good for those who want to know more about INA:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a9xRYqRY.sN0

i like to comment about your post (without reading your link).
INA is now recovering well but was slow to pick up when compared to other little tigers (S. Korea, SG, vietnam, phillipine, etc). This is not too bad, it say INA had a bigger renovation than the other lil tigers.

I do not think euro recovery would be similar in recovery of the asian crises. Why? this is because Asians are savers, more acceptance to austerity measures and weren't living high hog in the first place. The PIGS tho, were conditioned to entitlements, many not savers and were living off the gov't handouts. What industry that would help the greek to recover? my colleage return vacation from greece and i asked him what do they export. He said olive oil, wine and bread. How can these type of business compete with SE Asian countries to have similar recovery???

[taneepak]

i like to comment about your post (without reading your link).
INA is now recovering well but was slow to pick up when compared to other little tigers (S. Korea, SG, vietnam, phillipine, etc). This is not too bad, it say INA had a bigger renovation than the other lil tigers.

I do not think euro recovery would be similar in recovery of the asian crises. Why? this is because Asians are savers, more acceptance to austerity measures and weren't living high hog in the first place. The PIGS tho, were conditioned to entitlements, many not savers and were living off the gov't handouts. What industry that would help the greek to recover? my colleage return vacation from greece and i asked him what do they export. He said olive oil, wine and bread. How can these type of business compete with SE Asian countries to have similar recovery???

Cooler, for once you have got it right. How insightful.
I once saw a documentary about Chinese entrepreneurs operating in many countries in Europe, Russia and Canada, and they all seem to say when it comes to business entrepreneuship there is no contest. The reason they all gave was culture to work and slot hard plus stubborn persistance.

[cooler]

"The Rev. Santiago Gomez Sierra, the chairman of CajaSur, a regional savings bank in Cordoba, began his last board meeting last week with a prayer. Several directors performed the sign of the cross. No miracle happened. Within hours CajaSur, controlled by the Roman Catholic Church, was seized by the Bank of Spain."

[extremenanopowe]

The spanish has join in the group?

[Yoppy]

i like to comment about your post (without reading your link).
INA is now recovering well but was slow to pick up when compared to other little tigers (S. Korea, SG, vietnam, phillipine, etc). This is not too bad, it say INA had a bigger renovation than the other lil tigers.

I do not think euro recovery would be similar in recovery of the asian crises. Why? this is because Asians are savers, more acceptance to austerity measures and weren't living high hog in the first place. The PIGS tho, were conditioned to entitlements, many not savers and were living off the gov't handouts. What industry that would help the greek to recover? my colleage return vacation from greece and i asked him what do they export. He said olive oil, wine and bread. How can these type of business compete with SE Asian countries to have similar recovery???

I cant agree more, cooler. I dont think it will be the same ending either. The article just shows what happened in INA and there is something to be learnt from that event. The fundamental difference (apart from public spending/hand outs) is that during Asian fin crisis no one saw it coming because the majority of the foreign currency loan was done by companies not governments. The dollar borrowing rate was a lot smaller than rupiah rate, therefore most big companies borrowed in dollars. Everyone knows the rest of the story.

On the other hand, the current Euro crisis is mainly on govts hand and there are all the time they have to fix it. If Greece is not part of EU I do not think this will be a major problem. But the fact is, if Greece are to fail now it will badly affect GER and FRA (as their banks are the major lender to Greek govt) and the rest of major economies world wide. The consequences of that happening is just too much. No one wants to see that happening, not even China who yesterday issue almost a guarantee that all investment in Europe will be maintained. Unfortunately the world will rather choose Greeks to die than their economy suffers. I think what will happen is, the restructuring will shift the debt burden from banks to IMF or the Euro fund. Basically its a protective measure or bail out by the EU in favour for the likes of BNP Paribas. The rest of the stories will be countless boring meeting between IMF and Greek govt that the world never care of. And the world economy will go business as ussual.

At the moment though, the bear camp will be looking for any negative news to strike the fear back to the market. So look out!!

[Yoppy]

The spanish has join in the group?

Not yet. Its only from AAA to maybe A, but not to "JUNK" status.