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View Poll Results: Did IBF make the correct decision in postponing the World Championships?

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  • yes. postponing WC was a good decision

    32 50.79%
  • no. WC should have been held as scheduled.

    31 49.21%
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  1. #52
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    Kia-su, Kia-si, Kia-sars!!!

    A Minister in Singapore recently quoted the above jokingly and they mean in the Hokkien dialect (Chinese): Fear of Defeat; Fear of Death and of course, Fear of Sars!

    Singapore has been very diligent in combating Sars because our government and the citizens know the dire consequences of allowing Sars to overwhelm us. Not only are lives lost, our casualty rate being 28 todate and this includes prominent doctors who were young and healthy, the adverse impact on economic activities was disastrous. We now have in place a slew of measures and up-to-date facilities to identify those affected by Sars, how to control their activities and movements and to prevent infection to others.

    Surprisingly, if you had visited Singapore during the early stages of the Sars onslaught, you would find very few people wearing masks. These are mostly restricted to care-givers like nurses, doctors and hospital staff even till today. Maybe it was due to ignorance or was it a case of not over-reacting to the situation since the government has been very transparent in disseminating information and educating the public. Also the government has taken swift action to isolate affected Sars victims and the people they came into contact with by issuing quarantine orders and making sure that they do not break such orders. Even so there were a few cases of breaches and such culprits were taken to task. One entire market, the Pasir Panjang Wholesale Market, had to close down and the stallholders had to be quarantined, because of one infected case and this victim has since died. The financial loss to the affected is tremendous and although the market has since reopened, business is about 50% of what it used to be although some financial compensation from the government is forthcoming. Many other businesses are affected, particularly those engaged in the travel and hotel industry. Yes, our people are less fearful of Sars now as they begin to know more about it but they remain vigilent. It was discovered a few days ago that the original Sars has mutated and there are two different strains. Who knows what will become of it later? And despited being taken out of the travel advisory list and the pronouncement by WHO that Singapore has contained the Sars situation here, we are not resting on our laurels. To quote Professor Ong Yong Yau, CEO of Singapore General Hospital, which was the most hit by an entire cluster of Sars cases, "SGH has gone through a period of two incubation cycles without new cases being reported ... but we can never be sure...I am very worried." Even the Prof is cautious!

    I'm very impressed by Raymond's stimulating articulation on this subject and his sound rebuttals.

    I agree with Colin that the University which originally bars students from affected Asian countries is over-reacting and somehow sends a wrong signal to Asian students that it is discriminatory. Prospective students can be selectively screened and examined before they are admitted. But I think the IBF is NOT over-reacting when it decided to postpone the WC, precisely because it does not know much about Sars and the fact that there will be an expected influx of both players and spectators from Sars affected Asia, a point which was well argued by Lazybuddy. As Bbn has shown us the many newsclippings, human behaviour is difficult to predict and all you need is one Sars carrier who managed to escape the screening net to infect the other innocent spectators. Then there won't be joy anymore at the WC!

  2. #53
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    Originally posted by raymond
    Some countries' airport resources may already
    be strained without putting SARS inspection in place.
    I don't think so, You could train the imigration officer to look at the health deceleration. Temperature taking is a very simple procedure. It takes very little training and that person doesn;t have to be a health care professional

    The question is: From the moment one has contracted the disease (and presumablybecomes a carrier) to the time symptoms such as elevated body temperature develop, is the person capable of spreading the disease. And if there's such incubation period, how are we supposed to identify them.
    good point. We don't know if a person is infectious or not before they have a raised body temperature. You can't identify them. Just like the situation with HIV infection. Many people with HIV walk around doing normal things. I can't see a difference.

    Checking body temperature would pick up the obvious cases, but I'm wondering about the not so obvious ones. We'd not have any statistics on this just by its nature (you can't count them in your sample space as you can't detect them in the first place). If you can't count them accurately, how do you propose to evaluate
    the effectiveness of this measure. If this measure turns out to be ineffective, we
    are just fooling ourselves into a false sense of security.
    True. No test is 100% effective. Even patients who turn up to Emergency room get sent home and reattend later (for other illnesses too). This is a fact of life. At least temperature measurement and questionnaires are simple measures, easily performed, cheap, require only a small amount of training. Look at the cost:benefit ratio.

    When I previously said it took some time and express a concern of whether a test result is instantaneous, I was thinking about a definitive test (??) that I'm vaguely aware of. The test would give result in an hour or two. And I was thinking if everyone goes through this test, you'd be able to pick them all up, including those who haven't shown any elevated temperature.
    I doubt any disease in the initial stages has such a test. For example, other viruses, at the inital stages of infection, Hep B, HIV, don't show up positive tests. This expectation is too high for the technology we have at the moment.

    This measure, while maybe effective in screening SARS patients, would further strain already limited airport resources. So why not everyone in the world do
    his part to not put any more unnecessary load on the system, at least for
    the moment?? Is WC a life's or business necessity? Why would anyone want to
    insist that?
    You have to be pragmatic. Would you cut down all airplane flights, sports events because of the risk of terrorism? Cancel the Olympics please, somebody....


    I believed that's something (IR detector?) China has implemented recently (I thing I saw them in evening news?). Ironically, WHO recently said that China still couldn't explain how half of the SARS cases originated. My point? We're still trying to figure things out now. All these quarantine, IR temperature check, questionaires may not be as effective as people think.
    Do you think the health care system is as advanced as in US? Consider also the baseline education level of the population. Some patients may not even understand the questions!!



    From resource prioritization standpoint, the likely cases
    would be the likely candidates to be picked on. No offence. But people from
    Middle East are now on the black list after 911. I suspect a higher percentage of
    them would be picked on in security checking (racial profiling?).
    Anybody can be a terrorist threat.


    Raymond, sorry if I sound like I disagree with a lot of things. But, the main point is the resource issue. I beleive your emphasis on use of resources can be effectively answered. Terrorist threat uses up a hell of a lot of resources, equipment, maintenance, electric power and personnel. I believe health questionnaires and temp checks are two easily implemented, low cost measures of screening. Chest XR is not 100% diagnostic, CT scan is better but impractical, both of these tests are not practical in screening people who are otherwise asymptomatic.

    For the WC, perhaps players arriving from affected countries are at risk. Therefore, the rationale of implementation of screening for ALL of the delegation of all countries (as I suggested earlier) during the tournament. (Possibly could pick up virus in transit). NOT quarantine. Can a person transmit the virus over a distance of 3 metres? No evidence of that either.

    Forcefully quarantining people without evidence does more harm than good. Would you forcefully quarantine people from countries with a high rate of HIV and force them to undergo a mandatory blood test after the seroconversion period?


    Now, if you said this two months ago, my stance would have been different. I might have said for the WC not to go ahead, but now we have more information.

    If I am not mistaken, smallpox is the only virus that has ever been succesfully eradicated by man....coronavirus is not going to be the next one.
    Last edited by Cheung; 05-12-2003 at 12:07 AM.

  3. #54
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    Default Re: Kia-su, Kia-si, Kia-sars!!!

    Originally posted by Loh
    And despited being taken out of the travel advisory list and the pronouncement by WHO that Singapore has contained the Sars situation here, we are not resting on our laurels. To quote Professor Ong Yong Yau, CEO of Singapore General Hospital, which was the most hit by an entire cluster of Sars cases, "SGH has gone through a period of two incubation cycles without new cases being reported ... but we can never be sure...I am very worried." Even the Prof is cautious!


    I agree with Colin that the University which originally bars students from affected Asian countries is over-reacting and somehow sends a wrong signal to Asian students that it is discriminatory. Prospective students can be selectively screened and examined before they are admitted. But I think the IBF is NOT over-reacting when it decided to postpone the WC, precisely because it does not know much about Sars and the fact that there will be an expected influx of both players and spectators from Sars affected Asia, a point which was well argued by Lazybuddy. As Bbn has shown us the many newsclippings, human behaviour is difficult to predict and all you need is one Sars carrier who managed to escape the screening net to infect the other innocent spectators. Then there won't be joy anymore at the WC!
    Loh, the professor is absolutely correct. We must be vigilent. But, he didn't say 'sit tight at home on the toilet and live like a prisoner in fear' (or did he?) My interpretation of vigilence means caution but not restriction.

    Many viruses mutate, just like apecies of animals. This is called evolution. (X-men are a different category!!)

    I don't understand your logic with the IBF compared to the University. The University allows students in because the University knows more about the disease than the IBF!! The BAofE took the advice of health authorities - a highly responsible action. The IBF? We don't know if they consulted any other health authorities. We need the minutes of their meeting.

    BTW, WHO is an advisory alert. It doesn't say you must not go to affected countries unless there was a very good reason. You are only advised not to go. There's no reverse policy. Companies who enforce a 10 day quarantine of their employees do so out of their own company policy. Not because the WHO advises so.....

  4. #55
    Regular Member Bbn's Avatar
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    Default Kia -Bo

    -
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  5. #56
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    Default Hygiene

    See picture from Fist of Fury 1991.

    In Beijing people spit everywhere and in winter spit icicles on the street

    freeze and people are known to slip on them.Now following Singapore Beijing is

    passing a law to fine people for indiscriminate spitting.

    Maybe a law can be passed for coughing and sneezing without covering up.

    What about you, do you spit, cough and sneeze without consideration for others?

    try telling that to the people in say, Msia.
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    Just because people do it doesn't mean an effort cannot be made..

    No policy is 100% effective. Health education takes time to permeate through society as with all other types of information.

    What happened in the past doesn't mean it cannot be changed in the future.

  7. #58
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    Originally posted by colin

    1. That's why all passengers, including transit passengers, must be screened before being allowed on board. The cases of infection during air travel occurred early in the outbreak when no such screening procedures were in place, and sick passengers were coughing and sneezing in the cabin. Otherwise the air in the cabin is probably cleaner than the air we normally breath (at least here in polluted HK!) as it is filtered, just like the air in an intensive care unit.


    3. The mess in Taiwan is mainly due to fear and paranoia run amok. If the people there respected and cooperated with the quarantine measures, there would be much less of a problem there now....

    1. All the "check up" could be relatively easily done in UK, and many other nations with good medical services. However, in a lot of 3rd world nations, even their international airport don't have enough staff and equipment to check everyone. Plus, maybe we can put very strict rulez for big airport, but what about seaport? Local bus stations? Local train stations? With the possibility that many fans living in small cities, they might be infected in their local trip prior to the international airport.

    3. I don't think it's right to blame all the ppl living there. Lucky enough, we are not the ones got infected, and we are the lucky ones our governments have better medical services. Many patients in Asia got infected, not because they are not careful, just because the living condition itself. For example, in HK, some patients got SARS because their apartment have central air system. So, if 1 ppl gets it, so are the neighbors. Also, many poor ppl get SARS just because their living condition is soooo poor. If a family (about 5+) ppl have to squeeze to live in a very small room, and all of them work as the minial wage physcial labors, the chance for them to get infected is very large (poor living condition, poor working condition, no $$$ for mask, no $$$ for regular doctor visit, etc).

  8. #59
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    Originally posted by LazyBuddy
    1. All the "check up" could be relatively easily done in UK, and many other nations with good medical services. However, in a lot of 3rd world nations, even their international airport don't have enough staff and equipment to check everyone. Plus, maybe we can put very strict rulez for big airport, but what about seaport? Local bus stations? Local train stations? With the possibility that many fans living in small cities, they might be infected in their local trip prior to the international airport.
    Since we are only referring to the WC here, we should apply our checking procedures in context of the world championships.

    Well, I bet there are still flights coming in and out of China to Europe. Presumably, if LB, Raymond, Bbn etc are correct, then we should see more severe transmission in another countries. But it's not happening! Put in context of the WC, then the WC doesn't seem to be the high risk that people think it is at.

    Please do not get confused with the issue of country screening its ports and screening at the world championships. Sure LB is correct...so what are you going to do, LB? Best thing to do is to lock yourself up inside and never go outside!

    If you say the players and delegation are SARS risk being potential carriers. Yes, we can do something. Is it effective? yes, partially. Is there any better test of SARS or for that matter other viruses that can give a result in less than 1 hour? NO

    How about the audience? Many coming from overseas? Yes. Many coming from Asia? less so(UK is a long way away). How many potential carriers? Much less. Can they be screened out in less than one hour? NO. Is that any different from any other travellers from these areas? NO....get my drift?

    I suspect a few people on this discussion are engineering disciplines. My impression is that, engineers like hard facts. Not probability. Unfortunately, no test in medicine is so hard fact. There are always errors when dealing with biological systems. That's why we have to use statistics. Even 'gold standard' tests have errors.

    People on this board demand complete answers that fit nicely in to a package. Sorry to tell you that many times in medicine, you don't get that nice package. Medicine and biological systems are not nice things you can manufacture, build, test to tight tolerances. This is reality - all I suggest for the WC are measures to reduce risk(and have psychological benefit).

  9. #60
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    Originally posted by raymond
    Perhaps the world needs to do a lot more than it is already doing today.
    Mandatory screening (what type, and how, BTW? Temperature again? We
    probably need more definitive testing, which I think we can already do; with
    result in an hour or so)
    Really? What test? What test can tell you that doesn't harm people?

    The key is try to be proactive, try to look ahead and see how you can avoid
    getting into a desparate situation before it even arises.
    HK,Toronto, S'pore, Vietnam have proven it. These affected places where the first places to be hit without warning. Successful containment. The proactive part has already been done with the increased publicity and exposure to health authorities across the world.


    Perhaps the measures that places like H.K. are taking nowaday are already
    enough and effective. But I'd like to see more long term data (from statistical
    sample space standpoint, I want more samples). My view is that, whether
    people today is too paranoid, and whether any of these measures (quarantine,
    surgical masks, washing hands) are actually effective or not, can only be
    judged in hindsight.
    That just tells me you haven't got enough information. You want more information on what? effectiveness? the proof exists already!! Why would WHO lift their travel advisory alert on some areas?

  10. #61
    Regular Member Bbn's Avatar
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    Malaysia has just announced a rule that people

    coming from SARS countries have to be quaratined for 10 days, this means

    foreign students need to be quarantined by their college and workers by their

    factories.

    The local Health Ministry claims that the spread of disease has been checked

    because hospitals are well equipped to handle outbreaks as there was one even

    deadlier in 1998 ie. the JE from swine. Also the ban on visas on people from

    affected countries.

    is this any help?

  11. #62
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    Originally posted by Cheung


    Please do not get confused with the issue of country screening its ports and screening at the world championships. Sure LB is correct...so what are you going to do, LB? Best thing to do is to lock yourself up inside and never go outside!


    I agree with ur point, Cheung.

    However, what I was trying to say is, "try to cut down activities, especially big events / gathering, at this particular moments". Necessary living activities have to continue, but relatively un-necessary ones (social party, concernt, sports event) should be limited to a certain level. I know it's sad, but compare to someone losing life, well, still worth it, right?

    Personally, I think each countries screening its ports and screening at the world champ is closely related with each other. If the athletes, staff, fans won't go throught their ports to travel to UK, how they going to participate??? I was trying to say, the UK might done a good job in screening, but potential carriers might spread virus even before get to UK. This way, they not just put UK ppl's lives in danger, but all the passengers on board, etc. Since when we talk about a event, the traveling in event (local and international) should be counted.

    Sure, the chance is not really big, but as I and many others metioned several times, we just need ONE carrier, to put everyone's (or, at least a lot of others, with early detection) life in danger. Plus, the event is just postponed for several months (2, 3???), not like 10 yrs, and out of reach something.

    Just some personal point of view.

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    Originally posted by Cheung


    Well, I bet there are still flights coming in and out of China to Europe. Presumably, if LB, Raymond, Bbn etc are correct, then we should see more severe transmission in another countries. But it's not happening! Put in context of the WC, then the WC doesn't seem to be the high risk that people think it is at.

    In US, many companies (including mine) cut down the business trips to Asia. Unless it's very necessary, no one really want to or should really take the risk.

    Yeah, still flights around these days. But that does not mean there's no danger. Emergency and important issues still have to be taken care of, but I am sure regular social and tour trips been greatly cut down already.

    Here's my example. There are certain areas in NYC are considered as dangerous places. With gangsters, drug dealers around, and crime rate relatively higher than average, city government warn ppl don't travel through there alone at night. However, we still see ppl walking on street, taxi still running, bus still running, subway still in services, ppl still visiting their friends/family there. However, all the facts can't prove that several places are safe. We all know what we should do - only go there when it's necessary, but if we have other options, do NOT go!!!

    Of course, compare to SARS, my example seems like nothing. But I think they are under the same theory - a lot of things on surface and a fairly small %%% might not really reflect how dangerous it could be...

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    Originally posted by LazyBuddy
    Sure, the chance is not really big, but as I and many others metioned several times, we just need ONE carrier, to put everyone's (or, at least a lot of others, with early detection) life in danger. Plus, the event is just postponed for several months (2, 3???), not like 10 yrs, and out of reach something.
    This is the point; the argument put forward for delay of WC have far reaching consequences. There is always potential for the next disease to pop up or another flare-up of SARS (though hopefully better containment). That is definately a possible scenario. So what happens? Ans: all major sports events should be cancelled indefinately because it only takes one person (other BFer's arguments, not mine).......

    There's no such thing as NO risk...you could get meningitis from a person sitting next to you, BSE from eating your hamburger etc. I get the impression that BFer's are demanding no risk and definitive tests - both of which do not exist.

    Just to show I am being quite fair, I do understand people's concerns. But if people start asking for the impossible - well, nothing would get acheived.

    Nice point about the crime. But shows, cinema still go on. These can be classed as non-necessities. So why do people still go despite the risk of crime? Reason, certain activities have a lower risk. That is exactly what I proposed...lower the risk with the screening and temperature checks.

    That's a funny statement by M'sia coming when most places have the disease checked or coming under control!! Hate to be cynical but that seems a bit like a publicity stunt. Imagine if they did this two weeks ago and the consequences to S'pore. Well, the worst thing is I won't be able to go out and play badminton in M'sia ..I can in s'pore though..hmmmmm

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    Originally posted by Cheung
    This is the point; the argument put forward for delay of WC have far reaching consequences. There is always potential for the next disease to pop up or another flare-up of SARS (though hopefully better containment). That is definately a possible scenario. So what happens? Ans: all major sports events should be cancelled indefinately because it only takes one person (other BFer's arguments, not mine).......

    There's no such thing as NO risk...you could get meningitis from a person sitting next to you, BSE from eating your hamburger etc. I get the impression that BFer's are demanding no risk and definitive tests - both of which do not exist.

    Just to show I am being quite fair, I do understand people's concerns. But if people start asking for the impossible - well, nothing would get acheived.

    I never say about we should resume all events when there's NO risk. I know that's impossible. Not only about SARS, everything bad could never be limited to zero.

    I think our argument is really a matter of "how serious u think the danger is". Clearly, many ppl think it's very serious, and others think "well, still fine with certain procedures". However, I believe as long as fairly amount of ppl think something is really dangerous, we should limited big gathering/events to a certain level. Forcing through, and taking chances will just put lives in danger, and the event itself will surely lose its "taste" for some point.

    At this particular moment, when SARS is the center of everyone's topic, why force to put on a show and put ppl's lives in danger (at least, more dangerous than a lot of ppl can handle). Actually, if other sports events will be delayed due to the same reason at this time, I will support them, too.

    I can understand everyone's standard could be very different. Some ppl think it could be a serious issue, while others not. However, a sports event should let everyone focus on teh game, not have to also pay attention whether anyone sitting next to me was coughing or not.

    Let's say, we have WC on time. A lot of fans will really think twice before making the decision. Therefore, many ppl will lose their chances for this fantastic event, just because they have to worry about "who will sit next to me". This might sounds silly to ppl who don't fear about SARS very much. However, why we have to risk everyone's health and in potential to lose huge amount of athletes and fans (not attending) but not just wait for another several months???

    There's another case I heard. A guy from TW possibly got SARS (before TW officially announce SARS, and SARS getting really serious) because his relative in HK was dying from SARS. To me, visit a dying relative is far more important than watch a game. However, still, many ppl think he should never do it. First, there's no help he bring to his relative, but got himself in danger of death. Second, this guy is a carrier too, and risk everyone else' lives.

    Another example about "small risk". Weeks ago, 5 kids were dead (forgot about the cause). When they were in danger, one kid (14 yrs old) called 911 (emergency call). The sad thing was, the operator heard a soft kid's voice, and thought he was joking around, so, she did not pass on the message and hang up. Talking about %%%, I know there;s a lot of fault 911 calls (a lot of them by little kids fooling around), however, just to save policeman one trip, the operator just kinda killed 5 kids in one shot. Is that worth that? Well, to her, according to her working experience, maybe 99 out of 100 times, she's perfectly right. Only this 1 fault, 5 little kids just dead together, and lost their only chance. Do u think it's really worth it???

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    The championship has already been cancelled and it is not possible to determine other possible outcomes. One can always ask the question, "what if a top player or some fans caught the SARS virus and died?" Since the championship has been cancelled, that question is moot, but it could have happened. Such an outcome will have large negative publicity for badminton. Based strictly on risk assessment, the cancellation was probably overly cautious.

    Ron

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    There is something I am very interested in. And that is on what basis will IBF decide when to reschedule the event? They've already discounted the medical advice that BAofE sought....

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    I may be misinformed, but is the Ping Pong championships going ahead? I believe some of the top players are from Asia...

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