does this draw sound fishy? In women's singles draw, ignore the Qualification rounds, in the main draw, all seeded Chinese (#1, #2, #3) are facing strong opponents WR 9, WR 10, WR 15 and WR 7 (for YX). While the other seeded players, facing WR 88, WR 29, WR 80, WR 32. It's statistically impossible that two samples: (7, 9, 10, 15) and (29, 32, 80, 88) are randomly picked from the same group !
Especially, if we exclude the fixed position, (top 8), because only unseeded players are randomly picked, then the two groups will become: (1,2,3,7) and (21,24,72,80) how come on the earth, these two samples could possibly be randomly picked from the same group?!
Now that you pointed it out, I'm wondering too. How often do we have all the top 3 seeds facing such strong opponents in the very 1st round? Not that I can recall,may be unprecedented.
It may be unprecedented but not statistically impossible. If you think it is statistically impossible, then you need to read up a little more on statistics and sampling.
It's an elementary school homework, the t test results show: Variable 1 Variable 2 Mean 3.25 49.25 Variance 6.916666667 966.25 Observations 4 4 Pearson Correlation 0.834851975 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 df 3 t Stat -3.180618597 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.025035112 t Critical one-tail 2.353363435 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.050070225 t Critical two-tail 3.182446305 Since it's just one tail, so the probability is just 0.025, way below 3 standard deviations, which basically statistially impossible
Actually, you are wrong. There is that probability of the occurrence happening even if it outside 3 SD. That's the whole point of probability. Look outside of the numbers and the application rather than the numbers themselves. How did you calculate a mean? Since when when is a probability of 0.025 considered outside of 3 SD for a two tailed test? It's highly improbable that I win the lottery jackpot when I buy a ticket, but some people do win. The process for the draw should be somewhere on the BWF website. If not, you can email them with the query.
We cannot calculate the probability of the results if we don't know how the draw was made, in which order and by which method. I don't see those results as specially fantastic. Beside, those results are not ealily characterized, as it can be said it is a tough draw for the Chinese seeds, but also that it is a tough draw for the seeds 7, 9, 10, 15
ok, thanks Cheung and renbo, your points are taken, i would study and research more in details on this topic.
by the way, higher ranked seeds are supposed to have easier draw. No matter how the draw was made, it's always ok to assume the probability for each unseeded player has the equal chance to meet the seeded player. Base on this, let's look into it in more detail: Li XR, Wang YH, Wang SX are the top 3 seeds in total of 8 seeds. Sindhu, Porntip, Takahashi are the top 3 unseeded players, and Hirose the 5th among rest 24 players. What's the probability that the top 3 of 8 meet the top 3 of 24? This is a simple probability question easier than a T-test sample analysis.
totally agree with you that the 7, 9, 10, 15 world ranked players suffering more. Even though higher ranked seeds are supposed to have easier draw. In fact, Sindhu, Porntip, Hirose are the real victim of this mostly statistically unlikely event. Top 10 in the world, are not supposed to meet top 3 in the first round.
Msia's top MD and 3rd MD pair as well as 2nd MS... all flopped in the opening round... still boleh? [TABLE="class: ruler matches"] [TR="bgcolor: #F8F8F8"] [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][TABLE] [TR="bgcolor: transparent"] [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]Mathias BOE [2][/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [/TR] [TR="bgcolor: transparent"] [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]Carsten MOGENSEN[/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-[/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][TABLE] [TR="bgcolor: transparent"] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Yao Han OW[/TD] [/TR] [TR="bgcolor: transparent"] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Boon Heong TAN[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]21-17 21-14[/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE="class: ruler matches"] [TR="bgcolor: #F8F8F8"] [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][TABLE] [TR="bgcolor: transparent"] [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]Jun KANG[/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [/TR] [TR="bgcolor: transparent"] [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]Cheng LIU[/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-[/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][TABLE] [TR="bgcolor: transparent"] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Thien How HOON [5][/TD] [/TR] [TR="bgcolor: transparent"] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Wee Kiong TAN[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]21-6 21-18[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE="class: ruler matches"] [TR="bgcolor: #F8F8F8"] [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][TABLE] [TR="bgcolor: transparent"] [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]Sho SASAKI[/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: center"]-[/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][TABLE] [TR="bgcolor: transparent"] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Wei Feng CHONG[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD="bgcolor: transparent"]21-12 15-21 21-19[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
Is there a rule on that? I don't know myself. But the 4-8 ranked persons definitely cannot meet the top three (because of seedings). 9 and 10 should be have a chance of meeting any of top 8 as does any unseeded player. If the unseeded player wins, I think they get bonus points as well (needs checking).
The top 4 seeds already having easier draw by not meeting each other before semi final. As for top seeds having difficult opponent in round 1 or 2, that is called tough luck. If they keep playing in SS tournament, sometimes they have good draw, sometimes not. I guess it is quite fair
