mark my words/predictions thread for 2018

Happy new year too!!

Korea doesn't have enough top-tier WS players to really make it in the Uber Cup... I predict Japan! And I do also see the possibility of China reclaiming the Thomas Cup (that is if CL and LD rise to the occasion).

 

Japan to take the Uber Cup, but China will reclaim Thomas Cup. So China will only have a day where any of the team trophies are not with them.

LCW will win Asian Games, but CL will take WC. Ratchanok will also be the WC once again. Minions will win Asian Games, but someone else take WC. Yaqiong/Siwei win both WC and AG, WD becomes an open field with

 

Korea has the chance, but they can only hope that Sung Ji-hyun won't destroy the chance. I fancy Japan to win Uber Cup.

China have a strong team for Thomas, but you can't underestimate the other contenders.

And for my little precdiction: BWF will have to reverse any of their radical changes for the 2018 season

 

(my 2017 predictions)

i believe 2018 will play out like this:

ws:- tai tzu ying will finish @ #1 again. she'll win at least 4 of the wt-500/750/1000's. one less than last year but still more than all other ws players. the next significant players are intanon, yamaguchi & okuhara... all winning at least twice. one of those 4 will win the wc. marin, pvs, chen yufei are certainly capable of winning but i can't see them winning more than once in today's competitive environment. the advantage is turning back to racket skills, because all of the top players are fast now.

wd: japan wins the most. china and korea next. who finishes @ #1? cqc/jyf or fukushima/hirota. wc? one of those 2 pairs.

xd: zheng siwei/huang yaqiong dominate & finish @ #1 with at least 5 major wins + wc. hard to see any threats on the horizon. japan & korea will continue to make significant improvements and occupy the 2nd tier.

md: kevin/marcus will definitely not win 7 again, but will still finish @ #1. the same pairs from denmark/china/japan will fight it out for #2.

ms: axelsen dominates his year. he's in year 2 of a typical 3 year peak run. winning 5 majors + wc would not surprise me at all. his main competition will be srikanth kidambi. momota will make his mark towards the 2nd half of the year. chen long's inconsistency will continue. the 35+ crowd fades, but each of them are capable of grinding out 1 win.

thomas cup: wow, too hard to pick. out of the top teams [china/japan/indonesia/korea] i don't know who has 3 sure wins against each other. on paper it's china but the consistency isn't there. 2nd most likely is indonesia: 2 rising singles & the top doubles pair. a possible shocker, but no surprise to me, would be korea taking it. they have steady ms players, and rising young enthusiastic md's whom are absolutely capable of upsetting higher ranked pairs. japan's fate is based on how far momota progresses by may 20th and if this will be a breakthrough year for their doubles teams.

uber cup: japan. i can't see another team taking 3 out of 5 from them. only china has a slight chance of doing that. korea is lacking in ws.

overall, no major changes from 2017. i believe it's because all of the best players are around the same age.

3 dark horses poised to be 'most improved':
md - satwiksairaj rankireddy/chirag shetty (ind)
xd - choi solgyu/chae yoo jung (kor), yuta watanabe/arisa higashino (jpn)

 

I would put Denmark slightly above China, which is above Indonesia and India as the 3rd and 4th favourites

 

my reasoning is:

• denmark has 2 almost certain points: axelsen & boe/mo. getting a third point is up to antonsen & mad/mads. a 50/50 in my estimation vs. china, japan, korea & indonesia.
• china has 2 md's that can beat most others most of the time, other than kevin/marcus. chen long & 2 other decent ms can score 2 out of 3 points against other teams.
• indonesia has one reliable point, kevin/marcus. the other 2 points needs to come from ms. so far they haven't proven any sort of consistency.
• korea is the dark horse capable of upsetting anyone any day. they need to hit lightning in a bottle... which is possible.

 

Vittinghus can also beat the top players. His issue is more about winning multiple matches in a row to get to the final. I don't think beating Lin Dan is off the cards.

 

Vittinghus beating Lin Dan in an important tournament? LOL....Sure, LD will let him win at Court No. 5 in a GPG or SS.

 

For me, the probabilities are
20% for Denmark
18% for China
15% for both India and Indonesia
10% for Japan
7% for Malaysia, Taiwan and Korea
The remaining 1% probability of any other country winning the Thomas Cup

For Uber Cup:
25% Japan
21% China
17% for both Korea and Thailand
12% India
8% remains for any other country to win it

 

Erhm.. you do know what "percentage" actually means right?

Regarding TC, I kind of agree with your "weights" although I would probably put Taiwan a bit higher.
Denmark's chances depend a lot on JOJ. But I agree, that MS3 with HKV must not be underestimated.
As for China.. well it all really comes down to LD and CL. If they bring their A-game, I don't see anyone beating China.

 

Unfortunately for China, Chen Long never really brought his A-game to Thomas Cup... China still has to be considered clear favourites to win it though. Player for player definitely the strongest line-up.

 

True. Perhaps China's biggest enemy is the ranking ? If CL underperforms and SYQ does not hit his top level, they would not want to "waste" LD in MS3. There could, in some matchups, be a decisive difference between

MS1 LD, MS2 CL, MS3 SYQ
and
MS1 CL, MS2 SYQ, MS3 LD

 

What ideally should be CL> LD> SYQ is neither "ideal" nor "dependable" these days. Fortunately CHN can grab 2MD points against almost anybody.
There are so many ifs and buts in there MS, that there "masterstrokes" to "manipulate" the rankings might not work this time.

I think it really boils down to what "form" LD is in (possibly after AE). CL is inconsistent in team events
and has lately been out performed by the other "youngsters" SYQ is underestimated imo. But yes, TC isn't like any other tourney and there doubts about him might as well be legit.

They can actually try to get LD as MS1, he always have some outside chances against anybody anyday.
LD vs VA (35-65),
LD vs Ginting/Christie (75-25),
LD vs SWH (45-55)
LD vs SK (40-60)
LD vs KM (not sufficient information provided)
CL should win everytime as MS2,
CL VS JHJ (75-25)
CL VS HKV (80-20)
CL VS HSP (60-40)
CL VS Nishimoto (75-25)
CL VS Ginting/JoJo (70-30)

there MD can steal points if not, SYQ should've no trouble handling anybody of that "level".
SYQ VS BSP can be the closest one but no, don't find anybody stealing a single game.

 

Agree on almost everything.
Dark horse addition
Takuto Inoue/Yuki Kaneko

 

Gao Fangjie (who is from Nanjing) will qualify for the BWF World Championship 2018, which will be held in Nanjing (of course)!

 

I guess gotta revise my prediction of CL vs Ginting.

 

Yes please. Revise LD vs Ginting as well


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it is obvious i am referring to the wt 500/750/1000. read it all again from the beginning.