Chen Jin should have been denied already to play London 2012

Thanks, 2cents, for the better clarification. Now we gotta have some mathematician give some input. See how it defers from a hedge fund manager. Any Maths whiz to volunteer? This is exciting stuff. But things not looking good if PG is not seeded top 4 for HKO and CO. And LYB trying to entice LCW and PG to burn up energy early before HKO.( May not be a bad idea for PG to go out early if it means he s fresher for CO.)

 

due to OLY's regulations someone from Africa will qualify no matter what, and one from Oceania as well.
so, if CJ qualified one of the guy either from Europe or Asia will lose out, currently is the guy from Lithuania.

 

2 cents, there's another factor - 'help' from team mates. Just this France Open alone, most probably CJ will move forward to Semis in his match vs LD. And if meets Chen Long in finals, probably also Chen Long will give way to Chen Jin to give CJ more points. If CJ does not win the QF match, large possibility LYB not considering CJ for OG, which I dont think so.

 

mathematican, me? no way. just interested in numbers that's all.
quite good at it as well, as a structural engineer I better be.

 

No matter what. It is checkmate from LYB. So, keep dreaming.

This means CL will be getting stronger.

He will grind LCW juices to make him win the game and make him feels old. or

humiliate him mentally when he looses, which is a pretty good strategy to bring people down.

 

people always talk about CHN will 'engineer' the results for their benefit. of course they will, they play it as a team. let's not go into it as i'm that been said enough.

LYD is not a green coach that wet between his ears. On the international level he is one of the most experience and definitely the most successful of them all.

if he wanted and needed to 'engineer' the results he probably needed to do it once or twice at most. what's point to do it now and not wait until it's definitely going to work?

as in 2008 we all believe LD lost to CJ in order to help him to qualify but how many people remember CJ took out the in-form LCW in 2 straight games to got to the final.

 

LYB mate. You had too many of kimchees..... lol.

 

The tourney that 'we' believe hitched it was 2008 BAC, LD played CJ in semis not finals. CJ lost to PSH in finals but enough points for CJ to qualify. 2008 AE was not enough points for CJ to clitch it, and yes, academy award 'show' it was. Plus prior to that(early 2008), CJ's results was not very good.

Since the topic is on points calculation, I thought 2 cents should take into consideration these factors in the calculations- if CJ meets LD, CLong or other China MS, assume CJ gets to move to next stage.

 

Currently coming up with my own spreadsheet on the matter. I have to admit it's kind of interesting, to say the least. I'll give my opinions after the FO ends. But I think you guys might have missed something out: GPG events. If CJ is really desperate for points, and he is, it would be relatively much easier for him to win GPG events (engineered or otherwise) because the field tends to be weaker. That's 7000 points per tournament, which beats the 6420 one gets from SS SFs. There are 5 GPG events left till the OG period ends on 29-04-12, at least going by this year's timeline, namely Macau, Korea, German, Swiss, and Australia. I think that's something that should be taken into account.

 

the picture should be clearer after FO,so be patient
haha

 

That is true. Didn't think of that. However, by my rough calculation, CJ only needs 2/5 titles on offer at the GPG level. I think that is still achievable given a little luck.

 

With LD knocking CJ out in the QF of the FO, another nail has been hammered into CJ's Olympic chances

 

Knocking out is not a good expression, actually it was rather a simulation of match until almost the end of the second set, and parts of the third.

LD completely gave the first set, but CJ did not manage to win against a too-gentle LD in the 2nd

 

There's a drama for sure. Suspense.

 

Wow, with Cj lost in FO, CL and LD only managed at SF........I think LYB must starts to plan something in coming China Open SSP.......... W/O, Line judges and all match officials will involve. LOL

 

no, LYB couldn't hope for a better outcome, see post#102

http://www.badmintoncentral.com/for...ench-Open-what-if-.....?p=1783626#post1783626

 

So after the French Open, the position is as below (quoted only the top 6 with the closest point gap from AlanY's table):

[TABLE="class: cms_table"]
[TR="class: cms_table_grid"]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]MAS[/TD]
[TD]Lee Chong Wei[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]64197[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_grid"]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]DEN[/TD]
[TD]Peter Hoeg Gade[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]55913[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_grid"]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]CHN[/TD]
[TD]Lin Dan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]55576[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_grid"]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]CHN[/TD]
[TD]Chen Long[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]55320[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_grid"]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]CHN[/TD]
[TD]Chen Jin[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]55200[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_grid"]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]JPN[/TD]
[TD]Sho Sasaki[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]53326[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]



From above, between PG (#2) and CJ (#5) the point gap is just 713 points.

So, if AlanY's calculation is 100% accurate, PG #2 position is quite vulnerable... at the slightest slippage, he will easily drop to #5 or even lower.