Can Lin Dan win the Beijing gold?

Discussion in 'Olympics BEIJING 2008' started by jumpjump, Mar 16, 2007.

  1. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    the plan is to have LD for gold, and bcl the silver. This still fits your condition:p
     
  2. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    of course u dont see things my way, you're not cooler:p
     
  3. ye333

    ye333 Regular Member

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    Com'on, I am trying to learn something from you. I could not see any big change in BCL so would appreciate it if you can give me some hint. Like what has changed? He moves faster? smashes more (that is in certain positions he used to choose drop but now do smashes)? or something else?

     
  4. LazyBuddy

    LazyBuddy Regular Member

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    But I think we should give BCL some credits to make LHI slowing down? Holding on when you are behind and take advantage of stamina are winning factors, right? I mean, if LHI is facing me, I doubt he can even warm up before giving me 21-0. :p:rolleyes:
     
  5. bananakid

    bananakid Regular Member

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    First of all, Bao's style is unique in that he does not reply purely on power, but to move his opponent around the court with calculated drop shots and attacking clears, then put it away with a smash(more of a half smash/stick smash) mostly based on angles(he has good angles with his height advantage) instead of power.

    If my above analysis is correct, then it makes no sense for him to smash unless he is in the perfect position(where he is behind the shuttle by quite a bit)... which in terms leads to him making more drop shots and clears.

    Another thing is that Bao is not as agile/flexible as Lin Dan due to his height, so at some more difficult angles, Bao may not be able to do a difficult around the head smash like the one that Lee Yong Dae did at the last point in AE2008 final... PLUS Bao lacks the kind of power that Lin Dan has, so even if Bao manages to do such a smash, yet if it doesn't produce a winning shot, then he may have put himself in a difficult situation to recover.
     
  6. jamesd20

    jamesd20 Moderator

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    I agree with your analysis. I think Bao however does not smash so much not just because he may be less Agile than LD (which is debatable) but more that is is just not his natural style. He is a more patient player, which is a disadvantage when playing the top top players, as you need to take the half chances when they present themselves, as the easy mid courts may not come.

    Like others have said he also tends to simply follow his opponents pace, rather than be able to control and dictate, as such he lets his opponents play more. THis also is just a natural style.
     
  7. chibe_K

    chibe_K Regular Member

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    The MS gold is his. I would be surprised if he did not win.
     
  8. ye333

    ye333 Regular Member

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    Seems to me he is not very successful in this when facing players like LD, LCW, or TH (when fit of course).

     
  9. hollywood_t

    hollywood_t Regular Member

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    My Canadian Brother you are too funny :D:cool:

     
  10. jamesd20

    jamesd20 Moderator

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    I believe this is because his lack of aggressiveness - he waits to long for the chance, and as long as his opponent returns the shots and keeps the shots away from the kill zone then they can take their half chance to force the error.

    BCL's game is typified by his accurate placement to the four corners and his flatter clears (In fact this accuracy can lead to inconsistency as he hits so close to the lines they can go out easily). I think he is a textbook player, everything he does is very deliberate, if he is not in a position to play a shot he doesn't, he waits for it to come, sometimes at the top level you have to force the issue and play a bit ugly or rushed.
     
  11. Pemuda

    Pemuda Regular Member

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    If it was only that simple

    LCW beat LD in the recent TC and suddenly Malaysians think LCW overnight has become the main contender to take that gold in Beijing. How I wish things were that simple.

    Well, what I am going to say next I am sure the Boleh fans will jump on me and all. Lets see whether LCW can win that SO first before we start dreaming of our first Olympic gold. If LCW cant win in Singapore despite all the big guns not showing up, I really wonder how he is gonna take that gold in Beijing when the big guns turn up in droves.

    But knowing Malaysia Boleh, I am pretty sure should LCW make a boo boo in the SO, we will have the usual Boleh excuses i.e. "he was tired", "he had too much Singapore meehon", "he is still young", "give him another chance", "support and pamper him" etc etc etc. ;)
     
  12. bananakid

    bananakid Regular Member

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    It is hard to say whether Bao has figured out how to move top players like LD, LCW around the court effectively with his drops and attacking clears... especially when it has more to do with tactical than technical. We all know that Bao is technically sound, and if he does have(or figure out) the tactics to move them effectively before/at the OG, Bao can be very difficult to beat... well at least for everyone other than Lin Dan.:p
     
  13. madbad

    madbad Regular Member

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    In truth, LD has the measure of Bao, team orders or not. LD should own Bao psychologically. Yes Bao did perform well in the recent TC but I can't see him winning the OG gold. I think the Koreans (LHI and PSH) may have peaked too. Other than LCW, my 2 "dark" horses for an upset are Boonsak and Peter Gade.
     
  14. ye333

    ye333 Regular Member

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    Exactly. Facing lesser opponents, his supremacy in skill can usually create many good chances for him, but when playing very top players who can match his skill, he ends up either defensing all the time, or trying to "take half chances" and making many mistakes (IMHO BCL is very bad at "taking half chances", maybe he just is not comfortable doing that, or maybe his lack of power does not allow him to do that).

    How do you compare BCL with CH? I think CH is also a "textbook" player.

     
  15. ye333

    ye333 Regular Member

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    I don't think LHI peaked in this TC. He is much less aggressive than when he was in good form, for example at the beginning of this year.

     
  16. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    u don't trust lcw so now you're a LHI fan?
     
  17. ye333

    ye333 Regular Member

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    What do you mean? Just watch LHI vs BCL game 1, LHI was not as aggressive as a few months ago.

    IMHO, the players that were not in good form: LD, LHI, BP.

    I was just presenting my observation. No relation to whether I am any of these players' fan. In fact, roughly speaking, I am a TH fan. :D IMHO LCW or LD or LHI, none of them has ever reached the level of TH in 04OG and 05WC. :D

     
  18. BethuneGuy

    BethuneGuy Regular Member

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    When watching the top seeds play, I see that they are 'counter-attack' players. I think Bao is too tall for that style, and thus loses on agility. They usually don't attack first, but continually pressure the opponents with fast shots, until they are sure they can win the point, which is when they change speed with hard smashes and drives. But I noticed the defence of the top seeds improved over the 2 years (I've only been following badminton for 2, and only starting to understand it on the surface), and no one goes all-out on the attack anymore. Peter Gade used to, before he injured his knee, but when he was the top player, the top seeds at the time were either in the twilight phase of their career, or were far from the top form. I think that Lin Dan is one of the fastest, and despite what everybody says, one of the smarter players. He has a very high chance to win gold. With Taufik out of form, or lacking determination (I can't tell which is the one), and LCW being inconsistent, Lin Dan has my bet for Beijing 2008.
     
  19. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    as a reminder, this thread is about player's odd of winning in 08 OG. Btw, 2 titles don't make a great player:rolleyes:
     
  20. eaglehelang

    eaglehelang Regular Member

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    Ye333, I'm sure you know that Li Mao was not present at TC finals to guide LHI (and PSH). Only the Korean assistant coach was there, official reason is Li Mao got problem in getting the visa.
    Li Mao was also not there at a few tourneys bf that, it's believed LHI's lesser form was due to Li Mao's absense.
    It didnt effect PSH though, at TC, that is. Park did lose earlier round in India Open or sthing like that, Li Mao was not there.

    Anyway, OG Li Mao will be there, so... see how the dark horses perform then.
     

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