Chen Jin should have been denied already to play London 2012

Discussion in 'Olympics LONDON 2012' started by 2cents, Oct 27, 2011.

  1. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    after carefully examining the ranking points release by BWF today 2011/10/26, I found Chen Jin has already been denied by 85% of the chance to Olympics.

    Here are the points (only > 6400 points could be used even for regular year):

    [TABLE="class: grid"]
    [TR]
    [TD]Player[/TD]
    [TD]Chen Jin[/TD]
    [TD]Peter Gade[/TD]
    [TD]Chen Long[/TD]
    [TD]Lin Dan[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]best pts[/TD]
    [TD]9200[/TD]
    [TD]9350[/TD]
    [TD]11000[/TD]
    [TD]12000[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]2nd best[/TD]
    [TD]8400[/TD]
    [TD]8400[/TD]
    [TD]9200[/TD]
    [TD]7876[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]3rd[/TD]
    [TD]7800[/TD]
    [TD]7700[/TD]
    [TD]9200[/TD]
    [TD]7800[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]4th[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]7602[/TD]
    [TD]7700[/TD]
    [TD]6420[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]5th[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]6420[/TD]
    [TD]7000[/TD]
    [TD]6420[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]6th[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]6420[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]7th[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]6420[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]8th[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]9th[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]10th[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]#[/TD]
    [TD]3[/TD]
    [TD]7[/TD]
    [TD]5[/TD]
    [TD]5[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]Total[/TD]
    [TD]25400[/TD]
    [TD]52312[/TD]
    [TD]44100[/TD]
    [TD]40516[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]% in top 4[/TD]
    [TD]10%[/TD]
    [TD]98%[/TD]
    [TD]97%[/TD]
    [TD]95%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    There're only 4 SSP left and 4 SS left and several GP gold, and Thomas team event. Chen Jin needs 7 good points which are above 6420. The only chances are SSP and SS semis and GP Gold title. It's not easy, because Chen Jin is the 5th seed, he has to win either LCW, CL, LD and PG to earn a sf position. How can he do that 7 times in the rest 8 tournaments? Almost impossible! Assuming 50% for him each time, the chance is only 5.9%, plus other chance of winning the title (especially SSP may counted as 2), he's overall chance to be qualified less than 10%.

    What PG needs is only 3 times in 8. Plus there's European championship (7000 points guarantteed) and Thomas team event. PG can easily win 1 or 2 semi positions in the rest 8, especially he doesn't need to face LCW, LD and CL.

    CL and LD should be relatively easy too.

    Based on these, their chance for top 4 poisiton are
    [TABLE="class: grid"]
    [TR]
    [TD]player[/TD]
    [TD]Chen Jin[/TD]
    [TD]Peter Gade[/TD]
    [TD]Chen Long[/TD]
    [TD]Lin Dan[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]% in top 4[/TD]
    [TD]10%[/TD]
    [TD]98%[/TD]
    [TD]97%[/TD]
    [TD]95%[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    Of course, PG is always guarantteed to play OG, while CL, LD, CJ are not.

    If CJ (or other Chinese players CL or LD) cannot play at OG, there will be one more player from Central africa or south america. That really makes OG less competitive.

    Reserve thinking, if China wants to fix the match to have 3 MS in top 4, then China needs to send CJ over LD, then over CL to keep the chance. If LD beats CJ tomorrow, then CJ will have very few chance left.

    LD and CL should be ok, not only have 5 quality points, but also the top 4 seeds in the rest tournaments. They have multiple chances to collect 5 good points from 8 SSP/SS tournaments left.
     
  2. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    sorry, typo, should be Reverse Thinking
     
  3. eaglehelang

    eaglehelang Regular Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2007
    Messages:
    12,305
    Likes Received:
    75
    Location:
    Malaysia
    2 cents, 2012 Thomas Cup is AFTER the OG qualifying period
     
  4. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    Thanks for the correction. I'm not a follower for the events. Thanks
     
  5. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    Just check the official BWF site, the Thomas Cup Preliminery Round is in Feb, 2012, Peter Gade can earn that points, while Chinese players cannot (because they were the title holder, to good to earn points?!)
     
  6. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    Peter Gade's amazing run

    Peter Gade has been semi-finalists for 8 consecutive seper series. It's amazing.

    But his success was lucky because he never beat any top guys including LCW, Chen Long, Chen Jin, Lin Dan in the last 9 consecutive SS.

    PG has no problem to beat any players other than LCW, CL, LD, and CJ. That's the reason he's so consistant. But PG holds losing head to head records against all top players, including LCW, CL, LD, and CJ.

    PG once lost to CJ 5 matches in a row. And holds 3-15 against LD. So as long as PG can stay in the top 4 ranking, his life will be easy. For CJ, he has to pray hard, really hard to meet PG in the quarter final in the rest SS. Otherwise, China will be in trouble.

    China top 3 trio (CL, LD, CJ) together, need 17 SS semifinalists positions (Both CL and LD need 5 while CJ needs 7). There are only 8 SS left, with 32 semifinal positions. By the draw, if the trio has only 2 sf in each SS, then totally there's only 16, one short of 17. Therefore, the trio needs 3 SFs in some SS, that requests CJ in the draw of PG or LCW's quarter and win over them. Statically, CJ should have 1/4 chance in PG's quarter, but in fact, CJ has never been in the PG's quarter for the last 15 months.

    The last time they met was more than a year ago at Aug, 2010 World championship, where CJ beat PG in semi final, and finally CJ won the world championship.
     
    #6 2cents, Oct 27, 2011
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2011
  7. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2008
    Messages:
    5,133
    Likes Received:
    236
    Location:
    England
  8. twobeer

    twobeer Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2003
    Messages:
    4,000
    Likes Received:
    12
    Occupation:
    computer
    Location:
    Sweden
    I will not argue your calculations, but it seems like a pretty sad ranking system if CJ for example could not get a higher ranking than then Gade even if he for example wins a majority of the coming major tournaments during the next qualifying period.

    I think it is better to enjoy the upcoming tournaments :)
     
  9. demolidor

    demolidor Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2003
    Messages:
    5,470
    Likes Received:
    31
    Location:
    @Hollanti
    Only one team event may be counted ... so either Sudirman points or European Team Championship ... I don't think he will play anyway, same as last year at the Mixed Team Championships.
     
    #9 demolidor, Oct 27, 2011
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2011
  10. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2008
    Messages:
    5,133
    Likes Received:
    236
    Location:
    England
    don't worry CJ only needed 1 big win and he will be fine,
    post #61
    http://www.badmintoncentral.com/for...ench-Open-what-if-.....?p=1780770#post1780770
     
  11. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2006
    Messages:
    4,058
    Likes Received:
    144
    Occupation:
    engineer
    Location:
    icy cold place
    I bet my pocket money that CJ will make it to Top 4...and he will 'beat' LD tomorrow in FO11 and if CL beat LCW, CJ will win FO11...the key is will CL beat LCW tomorrow for CJ to win.
    And there is CO11 to come, lots of time.
     
  12. event

    event Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2005
    Messages:
    2,856
    Likes Received:
    249
    Location:
    Korea
    Where does this idea come from that only points over 6420 count? Right now, Chen Jin has three tournaments at 5040 points or below. That means that two PSS victories would make up the spread between himself and Peter Gade, and less than that if Gade fails to defend some of his points, as happened this week in France.
     
  13. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2008
    Messages:
    5,133
    Likes Received:
    236
    Location:
    England
    do it with 2cents, he will give you a 10-1 as he reckoned it's 10% chance for CJ to do so
     
  14. extremenanopowe

    extremenanopowe Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    12,756
    Likes Received:
    117
    Occupation:
    Chief Coach. The best and still active.
    Location:
    www.extreme-power.org or xtremexn.blogspot.com
    Interesting. Anyone can get bwf to certify the points? If cj wins tonite then we have a show. Which means he will qualify. I dont think china maths can be that bad to bet on a dead horse... Errrr robot. Lol
     
  15. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2006
    Messages:
    4,058
    Likes Received:
    144
    Occupation:
    engineer
    Location:
    icy cold place
    Sounds good idea...but I need assurance I can pick up my winnings, also '2 cents' has very limited cash, less than a dollar, to play with...LOL
     
  16. twobeer

    twobeer Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2003
    Messages:
    4,000
    Likes Received:
    12
    Occupation:
    computer
    Location:
    Sweden
    Are 2cents willing to take a bet of 100 USD to if CJ doesn't make it to OG if he pays 1000 USD if CJ does! Sound lika a fair bet??

    /Twobeer
     
  17. eaglehelang

    eaglehelang Regular Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2007
    Messages:
    12,305
    Likes Received:
    75
    Location:
    Malaysia
    The thing is 2 cents seems confident with his/her calculations, both of you mathematican or stats fellow perhaps.:D
     
  18. extremenanopowe

    extremenanopowe Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    12,756
    Likes Received:
    117
    Occupation:
    Chief Coach. The best and still active.
    Location:
    www.extreme-power.org or xtremexn.blogspot.com
    jokers... hey 2 cents, where are you gonna get another 98cents to make it a buck? lol. ;)
     
  19. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    thank you all. I'm not a mathematician, but I'm good at maths. I'm a hedge fund manager. I've got mega bucks from risk taking. The 2 cents are the money I used for hedging. Although it's a small money, it's crucial to protect my risk actions of mega bucks.

    Thanks Alan and other friends for your calculations and insights. Thank you guys also for joking 2 cents concepts too.

    All the calculations are right, the difference are from assumptions. I assume that
    1) LCW, CL, LD, PG, and CJ will participate all SSes.
    2) CJ will be in each quarters of LCW, CL, LD, PG with 25% every tournaments

    The above assumption are for the draw. Should be undisputable. The following assumption are questionable.
    3) assume every one of LCW, CL, LD, PG and CJ are equally good, they win 50% chance to win among each other; and 80% chance to beat other players (below top 5)

    Then under this assumption, CJ is out by 99%.

    replace assumption 3 with the following:
    3) (3-1)CJ will always lose to LCW, win against PG, and 50% against CL and LD
    3) (3-2)LCW will always 100% against PG, CJ; and 50% against CL and LD
    3) (3-3)PG cannot win anyone of LCW, CJ, LD, CL

    this way, CJ has 10% chance to be in the top 4 finally.

    In fact, I wish CJ play in Olympics. I love to see him there. If he's not, then my prediction's right, which hedging my loss in feeling. That's really where my 2 cents reside on.
     
  20. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    thanks to Alan's list, if CJ not qualified, then a player from Uganda will be in the Olympic games.

    For me, simply, it's more fun, much more fun to see CJ in the OG instead of a player from Uganda.

    PG will be in the OG no matter what. But he will try his best to stay in the top 4 so that to avoid clashing with LCW, CL, LD, CJ in the QF of OG.

    LCW also stated clearly he would do his best to block the 3rd player from China to OG.
     

Share This Page