Chen Jin should have been denied already to play London 2012

Discussion in 'Olympics LONDON 2012' started by 2cents, Oct 27, 2011.

  1. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2008
    Messages:
    5,133
    Likes Received:
    237
    Location:
    England
    btw, both 2cents and Chris are offering 10-1 on for CJ not to qualify if you fance to put a few dollars on it.

    ermm, safely to collect your winnings as well. may be not.
     
  2. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2006
    Messages:
    4,049
    Likes Received:
    143
    Occupation:
    engineer
    Location:
    icy cold place
    Agree with you. The top 3 can beat each other, no clear cut. And when it comes to majors esp OLY, besides LCW, CL, LD, even CJ is very tough as he proved that in past AE, WC and OLY. Mental game and staying focus, etc are just as important as physical fitness.
    Still to face 2 world best players, while your opponents are faithfully playing collectively and collaboratively under a 'system' becomes a mind game, at least I would think, maybe LCW thinks differently. A player has to be very strong mentally to deal with this. LCW is in the past is weak in this area, now may not apply...hopefully.
     
  3. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2006
    Messages:
    4,049
    Likes Received:
    143
    Occupation:
    engineer
    Location:
    icy cold place
    If those dudes are in Canada and we can park our bets with a trustworthy person (of course 10% commission or an ice coffee as his reward), I would love to bet in this...10 to 1, I take 2 to 1...honestly, I like this bet. With so many SS left to go, with HKO, then CO, I really believe CJ will make it.
    What I am afraid is 2Bears (hahaha) is in Sweden (hope he really is, hahaha!) and Chris is in Aussie, those fellas will email or fax me the $$$, that is what I think or afraid will happen.
     
  4. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2008
    Messages:
    5,133
    Likes Received:
    237
    Location:
    England
    not just the players but on the coaching side as well.

    for example T Baun of Denmark, we know she has such a poor record against Wang Xin with 8 or 9 defeats and not a single win. And not as bad as, say Wang Yihan.

    Well, Li Yongbo will let her and her coach know that when times come he 'probably' put WX instead of WYH to play against her. how would she perpare probably?

    He doesn't has to do it, put plant that into her mind will be enough.
     
  5. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2008
    Messages:
    5,133
    Likes Received:
    237
    Location:
    England
    did i hear trustworthy? look no further, i'm your man. just keep the money pouring in.
     
  6. madbad

    madbad Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2004
    Messages:
    28,303
    Likes Received:
    26
    Location:
    coming to a court near you...
    Errr... you conveniently missed out the word Canada. By trustworthy, he obviously means mad(Madoff)bad. :p
     
  7. AlanY

    AlanY Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2008
    Messages:
    5,133
    Likes Received:
    237
    Location:
    England
    the bottom line is if you want to be the best, make sure you're at 100% or damn close to it for the 5 days in a tournament. And expect your opponents will be at their very best as well. if the other guys come in below par it's a bonus but don't use the excuse that he is at 100% thus has the advantage over you, for whatever reasons.
     
  8. chris-ccc

    chris-ccc Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2006
    Messages:
    26,902
    Likes Received:
    21
    Occupation:
    Professional Badminton Coach & Badminton Promoter
    Location:
    Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
    .
    :D:D:D Half way in (26 weeks in) for the 2012 OG Qualification, we have this report (as compiled by AlanY). Here is the link;

    http://www.badmintoncentral.com/for...e-routes-to-London-2012?p=1786240#post1786240
    .
     
  9. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    10% is my calculated possibility, that's NOT the odd I'm gonna sell. Where's my profit margin? ;)

    I am not afraid to bet at all, but not on my calculated rate which will rip me off. Put it simple, $100, if CJ advances to OJ, I will pay you (or the other party) $100 using paypal. If CJ fails, you pay me $100 using paypal. That's very simple. No trustworthy person needed, who is more trustworthy than another in this forum? If you or I don't pay, then will be cursed and blamed by everyone on this forum. That's enough.
     
  10. twobeer

    twobeer Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2003
    Messages:
    3,999
    Likes Received:
    12
    Occupation:
    computer
    Location:
    Sweden
    So you dont walk the talk.. and when it comes to betting you go with 50/50 odds... hmmm..
     
  11. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    you missed my words again: profit margin!

    why i bother to bet?

    Chen Jin still holds his 10% chance even though he beat P Gade as I predicted. But I won't risk my money. I bet for earning money, not just making it even.

    You guys claimed Chen Jin will be qualified, sounds like 100%. Why not you walk your talk? and give out money freely if CJ fails?
     
  12. extremenanopowe

    extremenanopowe Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    12,787
    Likes Received:
    118
    Occupation:
    Chief Coach. The best and still active.
    Location:
    www.extreme-power.org or xtremexn.blogspot.com
    interesting...... ;)
     
  13. madbad

    madbad Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2004
    Messages:
    28,303
    Likes Received:
    26
    Location:
    coming to a court near you...
    Looks like CJ's odds went up a little with today's QF win over PG in HK
     
  14. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    CJ is doomed because of the draw and seeding. CJ can only advance to Olympic provided he's in the same semis of all the rest tournnaments. That's impossible. CJ is a better player than PG. But As the 5th seed, CJ has problems to beat LCW, CL and LD to advance to the semi while PG doesn't need to play LCW, CL, LD, none of them to collect his magic points.

    Next week China open is much more important for collecting points. PG has an easy draw in the next China open, he will easily collect at least 7700 points, which will almost easily kill CJ. while CJ has to fight wtih LD for the semi; both of them need points. If PG reaches final in the China open as you did before, then CJ's chance will close to zero.
     
  15. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    Thanks Alan's olympic ranking. But it doesn't tell much.

    Both CJ and WSX are the 3rd ranked Chinese singles in mens and womens respectively. CJ is listed 5th, while WSX only 6th. Looks like CJ in better position than WSX. Reality check: WSX has no problem to be qualified while CJ is in big trouble.

    The 1st reason behind the ranking is the strength of the points. CJ's points are weaker than WSX. In another words, weak means replaciable. The other reason is the draw. As the 1st ranked currently, WSX has the advantage while CJ, the unfortunate the 5th seed, has to beat LCW, LD, CL to collect valuable points.
     
  16. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    Taufik vowed to block Chen Jin

    Taufik just said, he has an agreement with LCW and Pete Gade together, to block 3 Chinese in Olympics. Taufik said Chinese always fixing games, it's unfair for other countries. Therefore, when Taufik, LCW, PG met as honorable guests at the LYB badminton school in China, they vowed together to work together to block China's chance. I guess they are going to fix the games too to fight back.

    In fact, it's difficult to fix the game, because all LD, CL, CJ need points. It's a zero sumed.

    while Taufik, PG and LCW have no worries. Especially PG and LCW, they are qualified already for the OG.
     
  17. twobeer

    twobeer Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2003
    Messages:
    3,999
    Likes Received:
    12
    Occupation:
    computer
    Location:
    Sweden
    Nobody else except you have claiming any odds or probability numbers..

    But you are not willing to accept a bet even with a huge doubling up on your "odds" for your "profit"-margin, instead you are only willing to accept bets with a 2:1 instead of a 10:1 odds... I think that says alot of your lack of confidence in your own calculations :)
     
  18. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    Any probability has its own credible interval. So does mine. I am confident about my calculation, but my calculation confidence has its own confidence interval.

    The 10% chance itself has credible interval. It's a stochastic process. it's not like 1+1=2. I cannot guaranttee that. My prediction number was chosen at the 50% credible interval. Which means, CJ has the chance of 10% which itself 50% credible interval. If increase the OG chance to 20%., then the credible interval will be dropped to a lower number.

    If the interval is just 50%, then there is no need to gamble. Although it's the most probable thing to happen, but at 50%, I could either win or lose.

    Based on that, I only bet with confidence. If any one claims CJ's chance is greater than 50%, or lower than 2%, then I'm willing to gamble. If you want to bet CJ's chance between 2%-50%, then I don't bother. I only bet with confidence :) I never gamble without confidence. :) :) :)
     
    #78 2cents, Nov 18, 2011
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2011
  19. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2003
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    2
    Occupation:
    Landlording, providing vacation homes at Disney wo
    Location:
    Vacation Home @ Disney World
    Congratulations to chen jin for reaching the final and collecting valuable points. Now, his chance's lifted to 15%.
     
  20. extremenanopowe

    extremenanopowe Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    12,787
    Likes Received:
    118
    Occupation:
    Chief Coach. The best and still active.
    Location:
    www.extreme-power.org or xtremexn.blogspot.com
    He has been consistent. He should qualify now. ;)
     

Share This Page