So they have lost twice to Chinese MDs. But then how many wins do they have against Chinese pairs in the past 12 months? Clearly more than two.
I don't think CHN team will have problem motivating themselves. For a start they are representing their country, not themselves. If they have only themselves to let down eg. MO, KO, AE then they can deal with it, but when itis the whole country who rely on you they you will focus and try harder. It may also be more pressure, but as you say they are similar(if not the same) players for the last 4 thomas cups (including this one), so they should be used to it by now. Can any bright spark set up a table showing MS1-4 & MD1-3 for each nation so we can glance across and see who might play who? Thanks in advance whoever manages it.
I have added a poll to the thread (It seems as good as any to have one) It closes in 3 weeks from today (halfway through), so please take part!
Back to AlanY post, DEN 2 MDs are not unbeatable, actually no pair is quarantee win or unbeatable...but DEN's pair are balanced and equally strong...IMO, the only player who is close to guarantee win is LD (if he is back to OLY08 form) or LCW (based on current form and home ground). So, DEN with 2 MDs, PG/JOJ and even JP would be a quite balanced team like CHN and have a better chance against CHN...still IMO, CHN is still the one to beat and has better odds of repeating champ. I would like to see what that website BET365 payout on CHN winning would be like.
China's gamble that moves Cai Yun/Fu Haifeng to MD2 is actually quite astute. It gives them a stronger guarantee to split the doubles, and take another 2 pts from singles. If CY/FHF were in MD1 (as in 2008), there is the off chance that both doubles could be lost; Malaysia came closest to capitalizing on that occasion. Similarly, LD at MS1 gives more balance to China. Most teams which had powerful MS1 (eg Malaysia) also have less powerful MS2 and 3 to trouble CJ/BCL. Likewise teams with reasonably strong MS2 and 3 (eg Indonesia) has a less competitive MS1 (eg Taufik) to trouble LD. Denmark has the next best balance after China, and alongside Indonesia remain the best teams to pull the rug from under China, but it is extremely tough. This time, Korea is a non entity due to perceived weakness in the singles lineup. As jamesd20 mentioned, there should be no question about China's motivation despite having dominated many times. The Thomas Cup is still the yardstick to overall men's team strength in World Badminton and no way will LYB let his winning record be blotted .......
For all your analysis, it is inaccurate if you do not analyse the home ground advantage. It has been proven times and again that the home crowd can excite its team to such fervour that it will play beyond its capabilities, and more importantly to reduce an opposing team to mediocrity. LCW coming from way behind (14-20) to beat LD in a 3rd game in the MO; LCW losing to LD in Olympics even though he was playing really very well but the Chinese crowd intimidated him to play dishearteningly; LCW winning more MO's than other SS's, and of course PG doing much better in Europe than in Asia. These are clear examples of home ground advantage. You may write off Malaysia as a 'no hoper' but the home crowd will make sure the opposing team play erratically. When the crowd closes in on CJ or BAO, they will make uncharacteristic mistakes. Claustrophobic feelings will envelope the foreign players. Their emotions will force them to try harder but in the process they will overplay and make those mistakes, which they don't normally make. On the other hand, HH will thrive on the support and his adrenalin will pump to get it done. If I were to analyse this properly, I would say Malaysia has got the upper hand in this TC. Other teams would have to play 2nd fiddle just basing on this home advantage philosophy. As I said in an earlier post, the 1992 win was one won with the crowd support, a very good example.
For Malaysia to win LCW must beat LD, end of analysis. Unfortunately for him, LD for some reason is actually very motivated for team competition.
Home Ground ..... ..... is not proven as an advantage for this group of Malaysian players. Only LCW seems to benefit, but not the rest of the players, including Koo and Tan. The youngsters who participated in the, err, Badminton Asia Championships test event, played better in India than in the Malaysian Open in January. The squad of 1992 is totally different, less technically gifted but more of heart. But even in the 1992 competition, Malaysia suffered a blip, losing to a makeshift Korean squad in the group match. I do hope Korea and Li Mao can do something about this Thomas Cup especially if they play China, it would add more spice to the event. Not very likely, given the recent results ....... but we never know. And I'm gonna miss most of the tournament, now that the European skies are clear and planes are flying again ....... :crying::crying::crying:. Damn, when is the next scheduled eruption coming? As for China MD, they might just throw in the makeshift pairings as suggested by tommybun, to outsmart stronger doubles teams.
I vote for China, because they have the highest chance, although do not rule the other countries out yet. List of countries whom I think have the highest chance of winning the TC or has the strongest squad : 1) China . The reason is obvious. 2) Indonesia This is the country whom I think have the chance to upset China because of their solid second and third singles. Sony Dwi Kuncoro is a dangerous player, and although he might be inconsistent, he is well capable of disposing of Chen Jin if Chen Jin is on his off day. As for Simon, he is also decent enough, and can possibily upset Bao Chunlai if the match goes down to the 5th tie due to BCL's nerves. As for INA's other point, Markis Kido/Hendra Setiawan defeating Guo Zhendong/Xu Chen is a must, and they are more likely to do so than not. 3) Denmark This is different from INA, however. They have solid doubles instead of singles. If Lars Paaske/Jonas Rasmussen can show their AE form and defeat Cai Yun/Fu Haifeng just like how Boe/Mogensen did in that tournament, while Boe/Mogensen plays their part against Guo/Xu, they have a chance. Their only other chance for a point comes from Gade against Lin Dan, Gade has to ride on his Swiss Open victory and hope that Lin Dan is not fully back in form...yet. If MS#1 is lost, it is safe to say that Denmark is out. 4) Malaysia I don't know what to say about this...their players are all pretty inconsistent except for Lee Chong Wei. This country has the best chance at MS#1, which is 45-55. For MD#1, I would say 55-45 and hopefully Koo Kien Keat-Tan Boon Heong does not fool around or show their Swiss Open final form where they will get crushed. Otherwise, I think we can score 2 points here. Unfortunately, I can only see 2 points coming for Malaysia. The third point from 2nd MD is almost impossible, while 2nd MS and 3rd MS has a ridiculously low chance of winning their matches. 5) Korea One Jung Jae Sung/Lee Yong Dae, no other powerful singles. What can I say? Park Sung Hwan is not that good in my opinion, just a step higher than WCH.
They played better in India because they are getting better and the competition is not that 'hot' perhaps? Well, home advantage is really about the home players synching with the atmosphere to rise up, and also how much the opposition is intimidated by the home crowd. Sometimes if the home players are so mediocre, they cannot possibly raise their standards even with the great support from the crowd. But with a reasonable team like Malaysia, things are possible.
all, please remember that the poll is about: - who will win the TC and not: - who you want to win the TC there is a huge difference.
why dont we have a supplementary poll as suggested, who you want to win the TC? and then we can see the difference between the head and the heart
Good suggestion, but I think for 'who you want to win TC', we will see many different countries (patriotic) Hmmm, btw, I would like to see Malaysia wins but China chance is higher.
I quite agree with undeadshot's analysis above. Looks like CHN is the firm favorite BUT all the team above i.e IDN, DEN, and MAS will have a chnace to beat CHN IF - IDN's MS2 MS3 and MD1 perform, DEN's MS1 MD1 and MD2 perform and MAS's MS1 MD1 MS3/MD2 perform to expectations. Having said that I think we also should not write off KOR and even JPN's chances. IF Portsmouth can beat Tottenham in the FA cup SF; Wigan can beat Arsenal and InterMilan can flatten Barca ! I think anything can also happen in the TC!! Makes for a very interesting TC 2010!! Looking forward to it !!
chn If MAS does not win the Thomas cup, I wouldn't mind INDONESIA winning the Thomas cup this year. Based on Undeadshot's analysis, Indonesia are the most likely team to beat China. They have my support. Definitely better than CHN winning. Personally, I just can't stand CHN winning the thomas cup again for the 4th time in a row.
