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Discussion in 'Thomas Cup / Uber Cup 2008' started by well-son, Sep 20, 2007.
maybe mlsia can win, seriously
Seriously, you have to be kidding...?!? MAS defeating CHN in the Uber Cup 2008?!? I will give MAS' chances of winning: 2.5%... MAS' 2nd WS, 3rd WS, and 2nd WD are just too weak compared to CHN's... and... CHN's 1st WS and 1st WD are very very strong too...
You are right!
HS is no longer playing, so MAS got a free point already. Oh wait, only if somehow they can manage a 2:2 tie according to your lineup before the last WD.
Based on your calculation, China's chance will be .6x.65x.65 = .25 (25%).
You can't have 2 teams playing each other with winning chance of 5% & 25%.
Your formula only include 1 of the scenario's as CHN took 3 straight set, there are many other combos, such as going 4 (3:1) or 5 (3:2)... The total chance is the sum of all the possibilities. With all said, I don't think the TOTAL chance for CHN winning is only 67% or less. No, I did not do the actual calculation for all the possibilities.
Anyway, I am not here to run a stats lecture. Personally, I don't think the % regarding each match are accurate to begin with.
No need calculations, China will still win this. That, like our flights and accommodation, is practically confirmed. Korea too are practically guaranteed at least a semis slot. After the disaster of their 2006 campaign, Korea will not want to make the same mistake.
What is not confirmed is how much fight other teams can give them. The most interesting battles are the jockeying of positions to occupy the other 2 semifinals slot. I count 6 other teams with almost equal strength. Japan and Malaysia, although seeded, are not guaranteed to win their groups, or even the quarterfinals even if they are group champions.
u are right. Malaysia and Japan are not guaranteed they could go semi final. It will be interesting to guess which team will make it ti the semi other than China.
I would think Korea will make it.
boring poll, let's the poll we did for 2006, who will be the uber cup runners-up? that'll be a more even contest.
I agree. But seeing as KOR are second strongest and they are likely to meet in SF, it is a fraught poll.
actually IMO KOR do have some chance. If XXF/ZN have off day and ZL/LL lose third WS, and WD1 come good, they can win. But it is a lot of semi-shock results going their way. none of the other teams could beat CHN 2nd team IMO.
WOW, those are very, VERY big ifs.
actually, if you take KOR out of the equation, i don't think you could put together a team from the rest of the world combined that could beat CHN.
I am surprised to see this thread manged to go get 4 full pages of debate and other responses other than China will win PERIOD.
Well, just like Dreamzz have said, even the world manged to put together a dream team to up against China, their chance to win is still relatively slim.... very slim.
Actually, a Uber dream team can topple CHN.
Say, like this:-
Tine Rasmussen vs XXF (yup, only Tine can balance XXF's power)
Xu Huaiwen or WMC vs ZN
WMC or JJY or ZM vs LL/ZL
Lee/Lee vs DJ/YY or YW/ZJW
TPE or INA or MAS vs YW/ZJW or ZYW/WYL
I would say, the dream team winning percentage is ard 40%, China still in the upper hand...
Aah, but you should look at how much pressure the CHN gals are going to be in, one thing I realized is that they don't handle pressure as well as the gals during Li Lingwei/Han Aiping days. Even Xu Huaiwen managed to cause XXF anxious moments in the Swiss Open.
this one i can't agree more...
no need for prediction, the result 's came out as the everyone know ... CHINA.
I think it should be changed to predict the runner up.
ina team will go to the final ...
we have quite strong WDs
Xu wouldn't be in my ROW Dream Team. Probably look like this:
WS1 Tine Rasmussen. Scares the CR*P out of any CHN player
WS2 Jun Jae Youn. but worth her spot on the team
WS3 Wong Mew Choo. Will fight till the last drop
(other possible WS - Pi Hongyan, Yippy)
WD1 Lee/Lee (Kor). Can give anyone a run for their money
WD2 JAP Cuties. Hopefully they don't meet the CHN tomboys
On their day, KOR could upset CHN but all the stars must align. They have the players to get them the 3 points:
WS Jun Jae-youn
WS Hwang Hye-youn
WD Lee Kyung-won/Lee Hyo-jung
Forget about the rest of their team, cannon fodder for the powerful Chinese. None of the other teams have a remote chance because they don't have good enough players to get them 3 points. For all those MAS fans thinking they can pull it off, keep dreaming . Ain't gonna happen.
no we may not pull off and win the Uber Cup but we can dream. One day we will have a chance to win the cup and u never know.. maybe we can hope for a semi final for a start.