How many gold medals will China win in Rio?

Discussion in 'Olympics 2016 - RIO' started by kwun, Nov 26, 2015.

?

How many gold medals will China win in Rio

  1. 5 Gold Medals

    2.9%
  2. 4 Gold Medals

    8.8%
  3. 3 Gold Medals

    35.3%
  4. 2 Gold Medals

    33.8%
  5. 1 Gold Medals

    10.3%
  6. 0 Gold Medals

    8.8%
  1. CLELY

    CLELY Regular Member

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    WD is best chance for China to grab gold. Another good opportunity may come through XD (Zhang/Zhao) and MS (Lin Dan or Chen Long). Conclusion, it's hard to see China will repeat the extraordinary and unprecedented achievement in London 2012.
     
    #21 CLELY, Dec 15, 2015
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2015
  2. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    my analysis of the chances for china gold...

    wd 99.9% - both (any) pairs that qualifies will be the favorite. china's wd are dominant.

    ms 95% - cl is the best ms player by far, but in ms if you have a bad day... you're gonna lose to any top 10 player.

    xd 90% - zn needs to be healthy. if he gives up md they go to 99% favorite. he is over worked. 2 strained knees & straind elbow going into dubai. not a good sign. should give up md since he & fu have no chance.

    md 85% - cb & hw need to make huge progress in consistency from now until rio.

    ws 50% - it goes to okuhara (96%) or marin (91%). both are too fast and fit for the rest of the field. wsx is the only chinese player who has a chance vs. marin. lxr is on the downside of her career and often injured. wyh is also on the downside of her career and not fast enough for the above 2 players. china currently has no outstanding upcoming players in this category.
     
  3. renbo

    renbo Regular Member

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    MD 95%??????How strange
     
  4. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    who said md 95%?
     
  5. pcll99

    pcll99 Regular Member

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    WS and MS have the best chance of winning gold. I think 90%.

    MD is less than 50%...
     
  6. phihag

    phihag Regular Member

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    This would mean that out of a thousand tournaments, a Chinese WD would win 999. With this kind of dominance, the probability that any non-Chinese pair would win at least one of the SuperSeries events is barely 1.2%. In reality, the Chinese won only 9 out of 12 SuperSeries finals, an event that would be about as likely as you getting hit by lightning tomorrow.

    Huh? The probability that Okuhara wins is 96%, and the probability that Marin wins is 91%?
     
  7. pcll99

    pcll99 Regular Member

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    kwun can explain.
     
  8. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    due to the olympic tournament structure you only consider the top 2 pairs from china in the calcuation. not all of the pairs from china. so in reality i'd put china @ 100%.
    ooops, my error. should be okuhara 97.4% & marin 94.9%.
     
  9. nilesh123

    nilesh123 Regular Member

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    Hmm... I can see some outrageous percentage probability predictions, I doubt I can believe any of them.. Its certain that we aren't going to watch another OG clean sweep(atleast not in 2016) amything else will be challenging the odds!!
    MD ahh too ambitious in fact a silver would be too much to ask.. Bronze at the most
    WS WSX/WYH arent getting a gold and as far as LXR is concerned you can't predict her at summit clashes..
     
  10. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    no idea how to explain such numbers. :D
     
  11. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

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    Need to bring out the old abacus to crunch out these numbers.
    My prediction:
    MS, XD, WD...to CHN
    MD...bronze is a win-win
    WS...the ROW has caught up, still if I am to bet, I pick CHN and put in LXR/WYH

    When it comes to OLY, CHN plays differently than those SS.
     
  12. nilesh123

    nilesh123 Regular Member

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    ^ I agree LXR can still do it!! A SF for WSX/WYH should be fortunate
     
  13. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

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    I say a different LD will show up at RIO and we got a inkling of what LD can play at CO15. His play is at LCW and CL level now.LD will not stick around to getting knock silly and gets his legacy tarnished before he hangs up his racket for good. This chap is still playing for one mission and that is RIO gold, all these SS/SSP/world are not his targets. One more gold and he will be undisputedly be the GOAT and reaps all the $$$$ and glory to come.
    I was thinking, since each country is allowed 2 players maximum for OLY and if there is a regulation that the 2 players from the same country cannot be drawn in the same half holds true, then LD and CL will be split into 2 halves regardless of OLY ranking. LD is at #4 and LCW at #5. If LCW does not get to #2 by the time qualification ends (to avoid meeting CL), then there is a possibility that CL may have to play both LCW and LD to win gold. And LD would only have to play 1 of these chaps.
    I am zeroing into these 3 players winning gold, but with the ROW catching up, the Japs, Danish, and other players can win too. But if I am betting, still I go with the GOAT to get that 3rd gold.
     
  14. OneToughBirdie

    OneToughBirdie Regular Member

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    People playing bets at Vegas would sure like to know OLY rule concerning splitting 2 players from same country into 2 separate halves. Interesting food for thought.
     
  15. miksss

    miksss Regular Member

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    Ms 80%
    xd 80%


    wd 50%, i dont find any pair as formidable as WXL/YY as in the previous years

    ws 30%, very tough and too competitive


    md 20%, i dont see any pairs to win even bronze
     
  16. Mark A

    Mark A Regular Member

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    Two - MS and WD. Everything else is more open than it's ever been.
     
  17. SolsticeOfLight

    SolsticeOfLight Regular Member

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    You're betting against ZYL/ZN?
    She might be a bit flakey lately, but I think they're still the best pair around, and ZN is in my books one of the most trustworthy players out there.
     
    pcll99 likes this.
  18. well-son

    well-son Regular Member

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    Can I change my vote?
    I've just changed my mind, .
    For China,
    5 golds 5%
    4 golds 15%
    3 golds 30%
    2 golds 35%
    1 gold 10%
    No gold 5%
    CHN might win 2 golds (likely) or 3 at most.

    For MS, Dato Lee Chong Wei has the highest chance. He is now a different player.
    A dream might finally come true for him after this....long long time.
    And then he might be recognized as one of the best ever player of all time.
     
    amiraka likes this.
  19. pcll99

    pcll99 Regular Member

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    I noticed many old-hand coaches have returned to the national squad from their home provinces since the beginning of 2016.

    Tang Xuehua, Pan Li, Chen QQ, etc.. just to name a few..

    Are they returning just for the Rio Olympics?
     
    #39 pcll99, Apr 23, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2016
  20. lee00

    lee00 Regular Member

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    FOUR!
    MS - LD
    WS - LXR
    WD - YU/TANG
    XD - ZZ
     

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