I don't understand why people are adamantly convinced that somebody who has shown surprisingly abysmal results multiple times lately should win the title.
because some people have guts. that's why there are betting websites out there. anyway one loses nothing in making predictions around here tho.
the attached shows 7 votes for 5 golds but only 2 on the summary table. i guess some were lost during the last BC upgarde, any chance to fix it?
I often wonder whether such polls are voted based on objective predictions or criteria rather than subjective preferences or wishes. If there's an attractive prize to be won for the correct answer(s), I'm sure the poll outcome will be very different.
I believe the poll result is mixed between both the objective & subjective natures as you just mentioned. Just purely for fun as many other things here... And about "If"... who's the benevolent? And how many winners do you want? Just impracticable.
Whilst that's a bit spiteful to say, it is a possibility this year. The Thomas cup proved the men's jobs will be hard work, and we know women's singles is anybody's game. With Yu Yang seemingly a liability, China is relying on a diminishing Zhou YunLei to get the remaining medals. Pretty sure at least one of them will do the job though.
Li Yongbo, in PR damage control mode after the Thomas & Uber Cup, has adjusted the target to 2 Golds (Li Xuerui & Lin Dan?)
Either LYB is being realistic or purposely downplaying CHN's expectations so that he'll still look good if CHN ends up with 3 or 4 golds, probably the latter, I think. As it is, with the new Olympic ruling of max 2 reps per event for any NOC as quota, CHN's chances are already lower than before. Now, it's made worse by the rest of the world closing the gap in almost all disciplines. To compound CHN's problems, both Zhang Nan and Zhao Yunlei are even having to do double duty, which in effect means three events, XD, MD and WD are at risk of being adversely affected by it. Mind you, we're talking about striving for golds, not just a medal of any colour will do. Even in MS, we're not too sure , it's still anybody's guess whether Lin Dan can be back to his London 2012 level, let alone Beijing'08, too far-fetched, Father Time does not make exception for anyone. Yes, some of us, including myself, would like to believe Lin Dan will be at or near his best, say 95%,but that's only our speculation and faith in him, if you like. Nobody knows better than Lin Dan himself what he's really capable of or truly preparing for come Rio'16. As you can see, I polled 4 golds for CHN,having in mind MS, WS, WD,and XD, not MD obviously. I reckoned that CHN has about 60-70% chances at most of taking 4 golds and maybe up to 80% of winning at least 3, but I decided to choose 4 as the chances is still above 50%. You can say, a fair bit of wishful thinking on my part.
I'd be surprised if LYB has that confidence in Lin Dan. He's just hoping LD will remove enough contenders for Chen Long, and hopefully meeting Lee Chong Wei, utilising the past as a weapon.
justin, to have 60-70% chance for 4 golds is very very high. roughly 90% chance for gold for each of the 4 events = .9*.9*.9*.9 = 65.6% for 4 golds. but then again China did a clean sweep in 2012 London, before the Games let say the chance for MS=.6, WS=.8, WD=.95, MD=.4 and XD=.5 that equated to a chance of only 9% for a clean sweep!
I see, thanks for your mathematical explanation. I simply based it on my gut feelings, taking all four golds individually rather than as a whole. Appreciate it.
let say for the 2016 RIO Games, my assessments for China's chances for golds are as; MS - 60% WS - 60% MD - 35% WD - 50% XD - 50% that equated to 5 Golds - 3% 4 Golds - 20% 3 Golds - 52% 2 Golds - 83%, and 1 Golds - 97%.
2-3 South Korea will probably take mens doubles. Carolina Marin/Intanon will probably take the women's singles.
LCW take gold. Marin/Intanon take gold Ahsan/Hendra or Korea take gold. Japan WD take gold. INA or Korea XD take gold. China has zero gold.
