Race to Guangzhou

Discussion in '2019 Tournaments' started by minions, Oct 27, 2019.

  1. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    it looks like hong kong open doesn't count either cuz it doesn't end until nov 17:

    HSBC BWF World Tour Finals 2019

    11 - 15 DECEMBER

    $1,500,000 PRIZE MONEY

    • World Ranking Date: 12/11/2019 (nov 12)
    • Seeding Date: 19/11/2019 (nov 19)
    • Draw Date: 09/12/2019 (dec 09)
    Invitation of entry: Tuesday 26 th November, 2019 11:59 PM (GMT +08:00)
    Acceptance of entry: Friday 29th November, 2019 11:59 PM (GMT +08:00)
     
  2. minions

    minions Regular Member

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    I think the more accurate cutoff date will be the invitation of entry date.
     
  3. minions

    minions Regular Member

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    [​IMG]

    MS category is the most open one out of 5 categories. The top 16 players are still in the race with 3 players already confirmed their places. LZJ is currently in the 9th. However, his withdrawal in HKO leaves Korea Masters as his only remaining tournament. If he plays at Korea Masters, he can only add 7000 points at max, thus unable to surpass AA, who is in the 7th.

    NKLA's maximum possible points : 67180 + 9200 + 7000 = 83380

    CL and VA are more likely to confirm their spots in HKO. CL just need to progress to R2 to secure his spot (80100 + 3600 = 83700). VA will have to progress to QF to secure his spot (79760 + 5040 = 83360). This is without taking into account of the other players' progression. There will be more updated when the matches begin.
     
  4. minions

    minions Regular Member

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    5 WS players have secured their spot. Only 3 spots are left. There are still some players left in the race. From the players who can still qualify to WTF, only ML and ZBW are absent from Korea Masters.

    ML's maximum possible points : 74820 + 9200 = 84020
    BO's maximum possible points : 71440 + 9200 + 7000 = 87640
    ZBW's maximum possible points : 69860 + 9200 = 79060
    SJH's maximum possible points : 68670 + 9200 + 7000 = 84870

    AY's current point is 83130. She just needs to participate in HKO to secure her spot, leaving ML (who is still in the top 7) and SJH unable to catch up to her.
     
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  5. minions

    minions Regular Member

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    Goh/Tan's maximum possible points : 76270 + 9200 + 7000 = 92470
    Han/Zhou's maximum possible points : 62250 + 9200 + 7000 = 78450

    A simple participation in HKO from Chia/Soh will eliminate Han/Zhou from the race. Endo/Watanabe can secure the WTF spot in HKO, following this scenarios.
    • Become the winner
      Endo/Watanabe's points : 83100 + 9200 = 92300
      Goh/Tan's max points : 91070 (using the points from the runner up since there can't be the 2 winners)
    • Become the runner up
      Endo/Watanabe's points : 83100 + 7800 = 90900
      Assuming that Goh/Tan become the champions, Chia/Soh's result will be SF at max. Chia/Soh's max points will be 90360 (76940 + 6420 + 7000). If Goh/Tan don't become the champion, their result will be SF at max. Either way, one of these two pair won't surpass Endo/Watanabe.
    • Reach SF and Goh/Tan don't reach SF
    • Reach QF and Goh/Tan don't reach QF
    • Reach R2 and Goh/Tan don't reach R2
     
  6. minions

    minions Regular Member

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    Li/Zheng's maximum possible points : 72430 + 9200 + 7000 = 88630
    Liu/Xia's maximum possible points : 71040 + 9200 + 7000 = 87240
    Hsu/Hu's maximum possible points : 63440 + 9200 + 7000 = 79640
    Stoevas' maximum possible points : 57480 + 9200 + 7000 = 73680

    A simple participation in HKO from Lee/Shin will eliminate the Stoeva sisters from the race. The remaining 3 slots can be determined in HKO.
    • Kititharakul/Prajongjai
      A mere participation in HKO is enough for them to qualify.
    • Du/Li
      Current point : 78720
      Scenarios that they will qualify:
      • Becoming the winner
      • Becoming the runner up and neither Li/Zheng nor Liu/Xia become the winner
      • Reaching SF, Li/Zheng don't reach SF and Liu/Xia don't reach Final
      • Reaching QF, Li/Zheng don't reach QF and Liu/Xia don't reach SF
      • Reaching R2, Li/Zheng don't reach R2 and Liu/Xia don't reach QF
    • Lee/Shin
      Current point : 72440
      Scenarios that they will qualify:
      • Reaching the Final
      • Reaching SF and Hsu/Hu don't become the winner
      • Reaching QF and Hsu/Hu don't reach Final
      • Reaching R2 and Hsu/Hu don't reach SF
      • Lose in R1 and Hsu/Hu don't reach QF
     
  7. minions

    minions Regular Member

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    Goh/Lai's maximum possible points : 67910 + 9200 + 7000 = 84110
    Tan/Lai's maximum possible points : 62740 + 9200 + 7000 = 78940

    A simple participation in HKO from Seo/Chae will eliminate Tan/Lai from the race. From there on, Seo/Chae and Goh/Lai will fight for the last spot in XD category. Seo/Chae can seal the WTF spot, following this scenarios.
    • Reaching SF
    • Reaching QF and Goh/Lai don't become the winner
    • Reaching R2 and Goh/Lai don't reach Final
    • Lose in R1 and Goh/Lai don't reach SF
     
  8. minions

    minions Regular Member

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    upload_2019-11-12_7-37-2.png

    More detailed scenarios for AA and ASG to qualify to WTF. This will taking into account of who they will face in HKO.

    For starters, both LZJ and PK won't be able to surpass both AA and ASG. ASG is already unsurpassed by KN, while AA needs to just show up in HKO for KN to not being able to catch up to him. This leaves 5 players whose maximum possible points are still above their current points. AA is in the same quarter as LD. ASG has NKLA, KW, KT, PK in his quarter.

    AA is in the third quarter. Among the top 16, only LD and JC, who is already qualified, are in the same quarter as him. He can possibly face LD in R2. Their point difference is 9300. If AA beat LD (or worse, LD lose in R1), LD won't be able to surpass him.
    His points after beating LD will be 80000 (74960 + 5040). From this point, the biggest threat that will surpass him is NKLA. They can meet each other in SF.
    AA's points after reaching SF : 74960 + 6420 = 81380
    NKLA's points after reaching SF : 67180 + 6420 = 73600
    Their point differences : 7780
    If AA reaches Final (that will mean NKLA loses), he will seal the WTF spot.

    ASG is in the fourth quarter. It is more open as he has more players that can possibly surpass him. Currently, ASG has over 7000 point differences over all of the players who are not in the safe zone. He will meet NKLA in R1. If he wins, NKLA won't be able to surpass him. If that happens, he can possibly meet KW in R2. Beating KW will have the same effect as beating NKLA.
    ASG's points after reaching QF : 75910 + 5040 = 80950
    From that point, the only players outside of the top 8 who can possibly surpass him is LD. If he reaches SF, he will seal the WTF spot.

    If both AA and ASG beat their opponents together, both of them may even seal the WTF spots in QF. That's because NKLA, LD and KW will have been beaten by them and both KT and ST will be unable to surpass him.
     
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  9. minions

    minions Regular Member

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    upload_2019-11-12_20-54-58.png

    Two more wins to seal the WTF spot for Seo/Chae.
     
  10. minions

    minions Regular Member

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    I have made the calculations up to the conclusion of R1 HKO. Here is the current state of the categories.

    MS - 5 spot confirmed, 8 players fight for the last 3 spots.
    WS - 6 spot confirmed, 7 players fight for the last 2 spots.
    MD - 6 spot confirmed, 3 players fight for the last 2 spots.
    WD - 7 spot confirmed, 2 players fight for the last spot.
    XD - 7 spot confirmed, 2 players fight for the last spot.
     
  11. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    i believe qualifying is complete...

    8. BWF WORLD TOUR FINALS

    8.2.1. At the end of the BWF World Tour year the top 8 men Players, 8 women Players, 8 men’s doubles, 8 women’s doubles and 8 mixed doubles pairs in the BWF World Tour Ranking (BWF World Tour Ranking published on a date decided by BWF... will be invited to compete in the BWF World Tour Finals. that date was yesterday, november 12th.

    see page 6:
    https://extranet.bwfbadminton.com/docs/document-system/81/1466/1471/Section%205.2.2%20_%20BWF%20World%20Tour%20Regulations.pdf ]

    ie. if endotanabe or michelle li are overtaken next week or after they are still in. however,

    8.2.3. BWF will grant an invitation to reigning World Champions in a nonOlympic year, and to the reigning Olympic Champions in the Olympic year, if they do not qualify as of right via the BWF World Tour Ranking list, are in the top 20 of the World Rankings on the date of invitation by BWF, and subject to clause 8.2.4 below (maximum Players / pairs from one Member). Where BWF grant such an invitation the number of Player / pairs in the Event will not exceed eight (8).

    by rule pvs needs to stay in the top 20 by november 26th. she is currently 14th in the race to wtf rankings. rest easy though. there aren't enough points out there for her to be overtaken by the 6 players ranked below her.
     
  12. minions

    minions Regular Member

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    No, you seem to misunderstand. I will quote parts of section 8.2.1

    BWF World Tour Ranking published on a date decided by BWF, but at the latest two weeks before the start of the BWF World Tour Finals.

    BWF World Tour Finals will start from 11 December 2019. Two weeks before that date is November 27th, not long after the conclusion of Korea Masters.
     
  13. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    "but at the latest two weeks before the start of..." means they can decided on any ranking date up to and including november 27th for 2019. they published november 12th as the date they decided on.

    the date of ranking lead time is the same they use for other tournaments: 30 days prior to start of tournament.

    if the ranking date is 11/27 why is the deadline to send the invitation 11/26?

    Invitation of entry: Tuesday 26th November, 2019 is an internal target date set by bwf. it's the latest date they want the invites sent. they're actually sent out before that date.
    Acceptance of entry: Friday 29th November, 2019 is the deadline date for the federations to accept on behalf of the qualifiers.

    it has the appearance of a 72 hour turnaround but that is not the case.

    does this make sense?

    i guess we'll have to wait and see what bwf's published regulations actually mean.
    we'll see if bwf knows what they mean.
    we'll see if bwf knows what bwf wants by what bwf writes.
     
  14. minions

    minions Regular Member

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    Wait, you can't just cut off a portion of sentences to suit your logical process. What I bold before should be read as a whole. I don't think that sentence leaves us with any interpretation.

    Nov 26th and 27th don't make much difference. Nov 26th is the date where new ranking list will be released. I used 27th just because that date is the exact two weeks before the start of WTF.

    I already check the BWF calendar. In WTF section, there is no such thing as nov 12th being the cutoff date. Where did you get that information?
     
  15. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    i shortened it for brevity, since restating the tournament name "the BWF World Tour Finals" is a given.

    i copy/pasted from https://corporate.bwfbadminton.com/events/calendar/2019/remaining/22/grade-2-level-1/ on sunday nov. 10th.

    you are correct now because the dates were just changed on the source page. the 'key dates & deadlines' info on this page was updated today, nov 14th, 2019 as noted by the Updated _ HSBC BWF World Tour Finals _ Players Prospectus 2019 _ 14 November 2019.pdf file. also see "updated at" column.

    now the ranking date is indeed november 26 and the phrase "Acceptance of entry: Friday 29th November, 2019 11:59 PM (GMT +08:00)" has been removed.

    just another incident of bwf bwf'ing me.
    it ain't the first time and it certainly won't be the last, ha!
     
    #35 samkool, Nov 13, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2019
  16. minions

    minions Regular Member

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    Lol, BWF incident, haha! You bet a new kind of "incident" will show up again.

    ML lost in R1 HKO. She didn't register in Korea Masters. This means other players can catch up to her.
     
  17. samkool

    samkool Regular Member

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    according to the most recent updated korea m&q busanan, sung ji hyun & kim ga eun are within striking distance of her.
     
  18. ong huigen

    ong huigen Regular Member

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    Actually, I am 95% sure at this rate Michelle Li would be out of the picture once Korea master completed. If I was busanan or Zhang beiwan, you will get I will fight very hard for current and next tournament to ensure qualification.

    But at least Michelle can concentrate all her efforts then in syed modi.

    And I am pretty sure syed modi has always been part of the calculation. It was last year and so it is going to be this year as well.
     
  19. minions

    minions Regular Member

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    No, Syed Modi won't become part of the WTF calculation. Last year, Syed Modi was held first before Korea Masters. The points from 2018 Korea Masters have no effect on the last year's Race to Guangzhou. This time, it's reversed. Korea Masters will be held first before Syed Modi. This year, Korea Masters will be the last tournament before the closing of Race to Guangzhou.
     
  20. ong huigen

    ong huigen Regular Member

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    OK then I guess Michelle li is out then.

    Funny why Michelle li is Skipipping Korea.
     

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