TH or Lin Dan to final Hongkong SS

lin_xingfang said:
chill out,guys...

like the joker said :
"Why So Serious?" :D

just enjoy the game...
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But I am enjoying the games, while also enjoying this discussion :). It's part of the reason I love Badminton Central - it's not often I get the opportunity to voice my opinion, so I make the most of it :):).

And luckily cooler gives me that opportunity very often :D.
 
phaarix said:
The difference between 4-1, and 20-18 is night and day. Those were the examples given, so those were the examples used. Obviously there's no exact line at which point it crosses over, but you can just use common sense and work out for yourself whether a match was close enough to completion to get a fair idea of who was better on the day. Who could possibly know for sure how that HKO 06 match would have turned out if it had gone the full distance?

And still you're not getting the point - The difference between an official match, and a match which actually contributes to a halfway useful statistic. Yes, Taufik lost the match. Jeeezz I'm not denying that... I'm saying it's not useful to include it statistically IF you're going to use that statistic as basis for an argument (based on comparison).
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speeding analogy was used because that's how insurance company rate the driver's potential risk of 'future' auto collision and damages:rolleyes:

OK, even if i just use the two score examples for statistical debate, my point is EVEN MORE valid:

(A) A 4-1 score is a 3 point spread, a 20-18 score is a 2 point spread. Since u accepted a WO at 20-18 score is a valid lost, the 4-1 score with the larger 3 point spread IS EVEN MORE indicative of a H2H lost

(B) TH earned 25% of game point (1 out of 4) before walking out. Since u accepted a WO at 20-18 is a valid lost, 18 point represent 90% of the game point. Why earning 90% of the game or 18 point is a lost but earning a measly 25% or 1 point is not a lost???

using pure statistical comparision as u had demanded, it clearly showed that your premise of 4-1 WO by TH as not being a valid data point for H2H comparison doesn't hold any truth. Actually, this statistical comparison supported my position even more so.
 
cooler said:
OK, even if i just use the two score examples for statistical debate, my point is EVEN MORE valid:

(A) A 4-1 score is a 3 point spread, a 20-18 score is a 2 point spread. Since u accepted a WO at 20-18 score is a valid lost, the 4-1 score with the larger 3 point spread IS EVEN MORE indicative of a H2H lost

(B) TH earned 25% of game point (1 out of 4) before walking out. Since u accepted a WO at 20-18 is a valid lost, 18 point represent 90% of the game point. Why earning 90% of the game or 18 point is a lost but earning a measly 25% or 1 point is not a lost???

using pure statistical comparision as u had demanded, it clearly showed that your premise of 4-1 WO by TH as not being a valid data point for H2H comparison doesn't hold any truth. Actually, this statistical comparison supported my position even more so.
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Ok then, tell me, in a scientific experiment, what would be more likely? 5 tests, or 38?

In a test of probability - repeated 5? Or 38 times?

I think that's all I need to say.

cooler said:
speeding analogy was used because that's how insurance company rate the driver's potential risk of 'future' auto collision and damages:rolleyes:
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The equivalent of which is what? The future risk of Taufik walking out???
 
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phaarix said:
Ok then, tell me, in a scientific experiment, what would be more likely? 5 tests, or 38?

In a test of probability - repeated 5? Or 38 times?

I think that's all I need to say.



The equivalent of which is what? The future risk of Taufik walking out???
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1. seem like dont understand probability and odds. Next time, go ask a booky which odd of losing is higher, 1 in 4 or 18 to 20 LOL


2. equivalent to FUTURE CHANCE OF TH LOSING. :rolleyes:


u should pay me for all these statistic classes i've given u
 
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LOL! Go LD, show us you're the real bad boy! LD will win this time.
LOLOL! LOL rules!!
 
cooler said:
1. seem like dont understand probability and odds. Next time, go ask a booky which odd of losing is higher, 1 in 4 or 18 to 20 LOL


2. equivalent to FUTURE CHANCE OF TH LOSING. :rolleyes:


u should pay me for all these statistic classes i've given u
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1. Ahhhhh.... like talking to a brick wall. You get much more accurate idea if you have more numbers when you're dealing with probability. You don't even get what I'm saying do you?? >_>... Like for instance: Early numbers for US election count put John McCain ahead (when they just started counting), as the day went on, with more numbers it was obvious that Obama was winning by a mile.

2. Losing by walking out at the start of a game. It's not equivalent to a full match. Change the record...
 
By the way... Taufik was just leading 4-1 in the first set... but did he win it? No :).
 
phaarix said:
By the way... Taufik was just leading 4-1 in the first set... but did he win it? No :).
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i also have said LD would be generous today. He let TH lead most of way, on both sets.

say what u want, odds say TH will lose and statistic was right, TH lost, again.
 
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cooler said:
i also have said LD would be generous today. He let TH lead most of way, on both sets.
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So what? What's that got to do with it? I didn't say anything about that :S.

cooler said:
say what u want, odds say TH will lose and statistic was right, TH lost, again.
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I wasn't even talking about whether Taufik would win or lose! I just found counting the HKO 06 match in H2H ridiculous.

And yes you're absolutely right, statistics say that chances are Taufik would lose this one, whether you count the HKO 06 or not. But like I said, that's not what I was talking about. Why do I repeatedly have to clarify what I'm actually talking about? I feel I'm being clear enough...
 
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cooler said:
i also have said LD would be generous today. He let TH lead most of way, on both sets.

say what u want, odds say TH will lose and statistic was right, TH lost, again.
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Stats tell a chilling tale :D
Everyone has bad H2H's against LD :D, barring Chen Hong and previously PSH, but now PSH has nothing over him.
 
nice to chat with u taufik-ist, until we meet again here on BF for next LD vs TH match, i guess u will be sliding back into your hole:D:p
 
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