Thomas cup predictions

Discussion in 'Thomas Cup / Uber Cup 2008' started by Inky2000, May 13, 2007.

?

Who will win the Thomas cup 2008?

  1. CHINA

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. MALAYSIA

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. KOREA

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. DENMARK

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. INDONESIA

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. OTHER

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. Inky2000

    Inky2000 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2005
    Messages:
    557
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Singapore
    For academic interest: If Thomas Cup will be held in the next week ..

    China is of course the hot favorite with 4 strong MS and 1 top MD. I think Indonesia (where only TH can pose a threat; unless CW/TG are allowed to play under the Ina banner) and S. Korea (JJS/LJJ or even JJS/LYD can't do much; their only strong point is the 2nd MD) won't have a chance, not to mention the other second-rated teams.

    That leaves Malaysia and Denmark.

    Mas should be able to win the 2nd MD and either KKK/TBH or CTF/LWW still have a fighting chance against CY/FHF, so is the on-form LCW against LD. If Mas fail in either match, they could only pray for a miracle in the 2nd or 3rd MS. Another academic question: If Mas is given the choice in picking the 1st MD (rather than determined by their world rankings), which pair would Rexy pick? KKK/TBH or CTF/LWW?

    For Denmark, they have PGC, KJ and JE/MLH. However, they don't seem to be reliable anymore, judging from their performances in the last few SS. For the 2nd MD, the vets LP/JR may have a fighting chance against the shaky GZD/XZB.

    China's depth in MS makes them hold huge advantage when it comes to the 3rd MS, no matter which team they are against. However, if TC's format were 2 MS + 3 MD instead, then Mas will hold a slight advantage - but such a thing of course won't happen.

    (Mod: moved from original thread)
     
    #1 Inky2000, May 13, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: May 13, 2007
  2. JaCk™

    JaCk™ Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2007
    Messages:
    1,210
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Malaysia
    interesting analysis from you. i was wondering about this too but you mentioned it first. haha. having good singles player are always an advantage.
     
  3. Cheung

    Cheung Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2002
    Messages:
    21,750
    Likes Received:
    3,347
    Occupation:
    wannabe badminton phototaker
    Location:
    Outside the box
    If you look at previous Thomas cups by Indonesia, they won because the doubles were rock solid. China's singles were also supposed to be solid but fell down. Look at the ones played in HK 1998, KL in 2000, China 2002. Three singles were supposed to come up trumps. However, only one loss in singles and your whole tactical game plan comes falling down.

    Indonesia couldn't maintain their dominance in men's doubles which let China win in 2004.


    China's depth in singles has been a theoretical advantage which remained theoretical until their doubles players came up to standard.
     
  4. JaCk™

    JaCk™ Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2007
    Messages:
    1,210
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Malaysia
    currently, China's men singles and CY/FHF looks unbeatable. china has the advantage. but if one of china's singles fell, then other countries stand a chance.
     
  5. Dreamzz

    Dreamzz Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2004
    Messages:
    5,134
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    London & Penang
    it's very hard to see CHN not getting at least 3 points from LD, BCL, CJ and CY/FHF. agreed that MD2 is shaky, but they really don't need it, i can't see any other country taking 2 of the 4 matches mentioned above, no matter how they shuffle their lineup.
     
  6. JaCk™

    JaCk™ Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2007
    Messages:
    1,210
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Malaysia
    the worry is CHina might win the tie from their 1st single, 1st double and 2nd single. there's no need to play their 2nd double. :)
     
  7. Dreamzz

    Dreamzz Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2004
    Messages:
    5,134
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    London & Penang
    even if they have to play MD2, no country has a stronger MS3. i can see sony giving BCL and CJ a fight, we'll need to see how much more he improves before the competition next year.
     
  8. Joyous

    Joyous Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2006
    Messages:
    245
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    UK
    The 1st single player carries a lot of pressure as outcome of the match is generally an indicator of the outcome of the competition. However, if the 1st double is strong, the team can still come through if the 1st single flops. For TO 04, LD came thru' but FHF/CY didn't but the 2nd doubles were there to see China thru'. Fu/CY has improved vastly in terms of composure & mental strength.
     
  9. Linus

    Linus Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2005
    Messages:
    670
    Likes Received:
    3
    Occupation:
    Manager
    Location:
    Hong Kong/Singapore/Shanghai
    I did an analysis on the results of the 6 SS so far in 2007.
    (See http://www.badmintoncentral.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43738)

    If the TC is to be held tomorrow, I donot think China will have an easy passage.

    The strength of China, as it stands, is their 2nd and 3rd MS. Whilst their weakest link will be their 2nd MD. So that only give China a 2:1 advantage.

    The 1st MS and 1st MD is anyone guess.

    As a matter of fact, I would think Malaysia stands a good chance challenging China given the current forms of players.

    Indonesia is dissapointing in 2007 (so far) whilst Denmark can only depend on PG whilst their MD seems to lost their edge against the younger pairs ni the NSS.
     
  10. LazyBuddy

    LazyBuddy Regular Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2002
    Messages:
    10,096
    Likes Received:
    14
    Occupation:
    Engineer
    Location:
    New York, US
    I agree with your numerical comparision, but I have to say the team match is a bit different than individual matches. In the SS, you fight for yourself, whether your teammate doing well in the previous match or not, has nothing (or, very little) effect on your own performance.

    However, in team match, if your team lost a "sure point" to the opponent, then, you are facing the situation of "must win" which gives the player extra pressure. That's exactly why CHN can't win in 90's, as their single players know they can't lose, as their MD are too weak.

    So, the situation is here. If CHN loses 1st MS or 1st MD or even both, they still stand a chance to give a fight. If any other nations suffer the same, pretty much just raise the "white flag". Therefore, the in theory "2 : 1" advantage could be even bigger than it appears. ;)
     
  11. Cannot_smash

    Cannot_smash Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2007
    Messages:
    460
    Likes Received:
    0
    Occupation:
    Bag snatcher hahaha
    Location:
    Home
    Inky2000, I think its not very wise to rule Ina out and your statement which says that only TH pose a threat is dead wrong. I think Ina and Mas are the 2 countries that has possibilities of knocking Chn off.

    Ina will be counting on TH and their 2nd MD to get the points, meanwhile Chn will be counting on the 3rd MS. 2nd MS and 1st MD IMO is going to be the decider. Sony is capable of beating Chn's 2nd MS (most likely BCL). Markis/Hendra, altho they havent been in great forms recently, showed that they were able to beat Cai/Fu before, even tho Chn has the edge here but its not impossible for the Ina pair to take this one. I would actually count Ina as the one with the biggest chance of beating Chn in Thomas Cup

    In this tie, if Ina is to beat Chn the here is what I predict would happen

    TH to beat LD
    Markis/Hendra to beat to Fu/Cai (50:50)
    Sony to beat BCL (50:50)
    Hendra/Joko to beat Guo/Xie
    Simon lose to Chen Jin

    Hence 3:2 or even 4:1 scoreline to Ina are possible.

    Mas on the other hand have just slightly tighter chance of beating Chn. They will be counting on 2nd MD and hoping to get the edge on 1st MD, while Chn will be counting on 2nd and 3rd MS. 1st MS, LCW v LD, could be the decider in this tie.

    In this tie, if Mas is to beat Chn the here is what I predict would happen

    LCW to beat LD (50:50)
    Mas pair to beat Cai/Fu
    Hashim lose to BCL
    Mas pair to beat Guo/Xie
    KBH lose to Chen Jin

    Hence 3:2 scoreline to Mas

    Again these are just what I think the scenario is going to be if Chn is to fall to either of these 2 countries, but of course other ppl may have different opinions/ideas.
     
  12. Linus

    Linus Regular Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2005
    Messages:
    670
    Likes Received:
    3
    Occupation:
    Manager
    Location:
    Hong Kong/Singapore/Shanghai
    Cannot Smash, what you have stated is of course possible. But what Inky2000 have assumed that "what if" the Thomas Cup is held NOW - then the players current form will be the key determine factor in this hypothesis. In that case, the INA beating CHN scenario is very unlikely but the MAL beating CHN in a 3:2 scenario is likely.

    Nevertheless, this is pure guess as in all prediction. The fun is in the analysis and more fun when we look back after the event and either laugh at ourselves or tell ourselves: well done!
     
  13. Cannot_smash

    Cannot_smash Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2007
    Messages:
    460
    Likes Received:
    0
    Occupation:
    Bag snatcher hahaha
    Location:
    Home
    Ooopsie hahaha i forgot about the NOW scenario :D :p. But, even if that was the scene then still dont say that Ina is unlikely to beat Chn because here is the probable scenario, and again Sony is going to be the decider, as he is not in poor form at the moment.

    TH to beat LD
    Markis/Hendra lose to Cai/Fu
    Sony to beat Chen Yu
    Joko/Hendra to beat Guo/Xie
    Simon to lose

    No 4:1 but 3:2 still probable.

    Now lets wait till the real TC, and I'm here well prepared for u all to laugh at me then hahaha :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :cool:
     
  14. robin7

    robin7 Regular Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2007
    Messages:
    13,685
    Likes Received:
    4
    Occupation:
    Dreamer
    Location:
    Miri
    No country had ever lifted Thomas Cup by winning all 3 singles, not even during its peak when Yang Yang/Zhao Jian Hua/Xiong Guo Bao were playing for the singles.

    Anyway, China will be the favorite to win, followed by Malaysia, Denmark, Indonesia and Korea.

    (1) China to win by 2S + 1D; all 3 singles can deliver points but pressure will be on Cai Yun/Foo Hai Feng to deliver the crucial point if one of the singles fails. 80% chance of winning

    (2) Malaysia to win by 1S + 2D; pressure will be on Lee Chong Wei to deliver the first point. 60% Malaysia Boleh

    (3) Denmark to win: 1S + 2D; pressure will be on Peter Gade to deliver the crucial point. Can the oldest team win? 50%

    (4) Indonesia to win: 2S + 1D, pressure will be on singles to deliver the crucial points. 40%

    (5) Korea to win: 1S + 2D. 30%

    ====================================================
     
    #14 robin7, May 16, 2007
    Last edited: May 16, 2007
  15. robin7

    robin7 Regular Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2007
    Messages:
    13,685
    Likes Received:
    4
    Occupation:
    Dreamer
    Location:
    Miri
    China-Malaysia Final (60:40)

    If everything goes well, China is expected to meet Malaysia in the final.

    There are a few possible outcomes:

    (1) China beat Malaysia 3-0

    LinD beat LeeCW
    CaiY/FuHF beat KooKK/TanBH
    BaoCL beat Hafiz

    (2) China beat Malaysia 3-1

    LinD beat LeeCW
    CaiY/FuHF lost to KooKK/TanBH
    BaoCL beat Hafiz
    XieZB/ZhengB beat LeeWW/ChoongTF (Unlikely)

    OR

    LinD lost to LeeCW
    CaiY/FuHF beat KooKK/TanBH
    BaoCL beat Hafiz
    XieZB/ZhengB beat LeeWW/ChoongTF (Unlikely)

    (3) China beat Malaysia 3-2

    LinD beat to LeeCW
    CaiY/FuHF lost to KooKK/TanBH
    BaoCL beat Hafiz
    XieZB/ZhengB lost to LeeWW/ChoongTF
    ChenJ beat KuanBH


    Question: Can China win all the singles?

    (4) China lost to Malaysia 0-3

    LinD lost to LeeCW
    CaiY/FuHF lost to KooKK/TanBH
    BaoCL lost to Hafiz

    (5) China lost to Malaysia 1-3

    LinD beat LeeCW
    CaiY/FuHF lost to KooKK/TanBH
    BaoCL lost to Hafiz
    XieZB/ZhengB lost to LeeWW/ChoongTF

    (6) China lost to Malaysia 2-3

    LinD beat LeeCW
    CaiY/FuHF lost to KooKK/TanBH
    BaoCL beat Hafiz
    XieZB/ZhengB lost to LeeWW/ChoongTF
    ChenJ lost to KuanBH (Unlikely)

    Prediction:
    (a) China will win either 3-0 or 3-2 whereas Malaysia will win 3-0 or 3-1.
    (b) If it gets into 5th tie, China has the upper hand.
    (c) If China loses its 1st single, pressure will be on 3rd single to deliver the winning point.
     
  16. saugusli

    saugusli Regular Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2005
    Messages:
    342
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Singapore
    Hi.

    - Impossible China lost to Malaysia. Possible China win to Malaysia (3-0 or 3-1).
    - not sure Malaysia can go to final. SemiFinal yes, I am Sure.


     
  17. Inky2000

    Inky2000 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2005
    Messages:
    557
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Singapore
    If I were Yap Kim Hock, I would have second thought on whether I want to make KHB the 3rd single, judging from his current form. I thought Tsuen Seng or even the experienced Choong Hann has a better chance in beating most of the 3rd singles of other national teams.

    What MAS needs to do is to win both MD matches and steal 1 MS match from CHN ... sounds familiar as the same strategy came to our mind in 1990s when MAS faced CHN or INA in some of the TC editions.

    Still, as LazyBuddy has pointed out, players' mentality when playing in a team event is rather different from individual tournaments. There were often surprises where a team who was supposed to be better in MS lost one or two matches, and instead won in MD matches, or vice versa. Remember DEN vs. MAS in 2005 sf? Judging from the form of both teams' players then, we all thought DEN had upper hand in MD but MAS was stronger in MS. Instead, DEN won 1st & 2nd singles while MAS took both MDs, leaving the 3rd single to seal the face-off.
     
    #17 Inky2000, May 20, 2007
    Last edited: May 20, 2007
  18. badMania

    badMania Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2005
    Messages:
    18,785
    Likes Received:
    200
    Location:
    Hong Kong
    Aren't you guys too early to make predictions abt Thomas Cup?
    Who knows...some of the players mentioned may not even be there in the national team anymore come next year.
     
  19. Cannot_smash

    Cannot_smash Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2007
    Messages:
    460
    Likes Received:
    0
    Occupation:
    Bag snatcher hahaha
    Location:
    Home
    LinD lost to LeeCW
    CaiY/FuHF lost to KooKK/TanBH
    BaoCL beat Hafiz
    XieZB/ZhengB lost to LeeWW/ChoongTF

    Wouldnt this be more likely?
     
  20. robin7

    robin7 Regular Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2007
    Messages:
    13,685
    Likes Received:
    4
    Occupation:
    Dreamer
    Location:
    Miri
    In terms of likelihood, u r right.
    If Malaysia can steal 2 points out of first 3 ties, it has a better chance of winning. :)
     

Share This Page