Will Tokyo 2020 (re:2021) be cancelled?

visor said:
Japanese have a history of distrusting vaccines, with only 1 in 3 believing in vaccines.
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Then you might be surprised how many pay 3,000 JPY for their annual influenza jabs! Now, too, there is a scramble amongst the eligible elderly to try and book their Covid-19 vaccination appointment. Incidentally, with the exception of medical workers, those aged under 65 are not yet eligible to be vaccinated.

Currently, it is not a problem of distrust. The Government failed to procure the vaccinations in a timely manner. And now, distribution/logistics, more than anything, are responsible for the slow take-up rate. Nevertheless, I am relatively optimistic that the peak of the fourth wave has already passed. In Osaka and Tokyo, at least, the situation is improving.

The Olympics, I believe, will be held.
 
LenaicM said:
I still believe the Olympics are not the super spreader event people should be worried about. I can only assume Japanese citizens will still behave carefully and take all necessary measures to limit the spread of the virus.
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Umm, Superspreader as in the athletes and support staff bring covid into Japan, mix together and then take it back to other countries. Remember the recent badminton tournament where players of different countries practiced together and couldn’t attend the tournament due to close contact.

R20190 said:
But even so, there will be a lot of international travelers supporting and participating in the games and also a lot of traveling within Japan. And when you have such a densely populated area such as Tokyo, the risk is increased.
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Absolutely this.
 
I haven't posted in a very very long time, but I thought I may just chime in a bit.

What I find encouraging is that European countries took the risk to hold badminton tourneys. Although there were cases detected (VA in the European Championships is the latest high profile case), I thought those tourneys went relatively well.

Take the example of the recently concluded Spain Masters 2021. With 7-days average cases in Spain around 5-6k lately and with proper precautions built in, the tournament organiser took the appropriate risks and it went smoothly. PBSI also took the risk to send their players there, without which they would not come home with 4 titles.

With new cases around 2,000-3,000 lately in Japan and 7-days average cases hovering around 5k for some time now, I would say that it is a "reasonable risk" to take.

The main reason why so many badminton tourneys ended up cancelled in Asia (whereas tennis tourneys have been held every week in Europe) once again boil down to the fact that the organisers do not want to calculated risks for holding such an event; which I find quite sad and disheartening for players especially.

Hence, I am actually in support of the Tokyo Olympics proceeding according to plan this year. I also think that the financial risks for IOC (and the Tokyo Olympics organiser) are too high to bear if the event is to be cancelled!
 
Plus, we can forget about any more tourneys being held in Asia again in the near future if the tournament organisers in this region still do not want to accept the reality and fact that the virus is endemic at the moment and you cannot avoid it!

Other sports have re-started and even though the road has been bumpy, they persist in holding those tournaments and sporting events! Fans have been even brought back into football stadiums in England last weekend for the concluding match of the EPL. BWF better take some leaf from the experience of those sports or it would risk obsolescence.
 
visor said:
Japanese have a history of distrusting vaccines, with only 1 in 3 believing in vaccines
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I have absolutely no idea where in the world you get this from. Please stop spreading this. I'm half Japanese and lived in Japan for most of my life. I got many of my childhood vaccines in Japan, and have yet to meet a Japanese person who has said they didn't get their vaccine or claimed they don't trust vaccines.
 
I think it’s clearly trending towards “go” vs “no-go”:
1. COVID situation is getting better in the “developed” countries especially in US
2. China as the host for next Olympics would want it to happen

This is not to discount the great effort the host country Japan is putting into. Just to say overall global environment is in favor. My 2 cents.
 
MarketWizard said:
I have absolutely no idea where in the world you get this from. Please stop spreading this. I'm half Japanese and lived in Japan for most of my life. I got many of my childhood vaccines in Japan, and have yet to meet a Japanese person who has said they didn't get their vaccine or claimed they don't trust vaccines.
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He certainly didn't make it up:

Why Japan took so long to start Covid-19 vaccinations, even with the Olympics looming - CNN

Mapping global trends in vaccine confidence and investigating barriers to vaccine uptake: a large-scale retrospective temporal modelling study - The Lancet
 
Tks kwun.

Nope, unfortunately those are not rumours. The 1 in 3 believing in vaccines is from a survey done in 2016. Sure that's 5 yrs ago. Perhaps opinions have changed since. But that still doesn't change the fact that as of right now **only 5%** of the population has received their first dose of covid vaccination. With only 60 days left to OG opening!! This pales in comparison to North America where 50-60% of the population has received at least one dose. And the Osaka article that reported just a few days ago of their hospital ICUs being overwhelmed by covid cases is not a rumour. Neither also is the chief doctor's complaint that only half of the hospital staff has been able to get their first dose. Think about the gravity of that...

No one's safe anymore: Japan's Osaka city crumples under COVID-19 onslaught
https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/coronavirus/2021/5/24/1_5440686.html

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visor said:
Tks kwun.

Nope, unfortunately those are not rumours. The 1 in 3 believing in vaccines is from a survey done in 2016. Sure that's 5 yrs ago. Perhaps opinions have changed since. But that still doesn't change the fact that as of right now **only 5%** of the population has received their first dose of covid vaccination. With only 60 days left to OG opening!! This pales in comparison to North America where 50-60% of the population has received at least one dose. And the Osaka article that reported just a few days ago of their hospital ICUs being overwhelmed by covid cases is not a rumour. Neither also is the chief doctor's complaint that only half of the hospital staff has been able to get their first dose. Think about the gravity of that...

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As already mentioned, the reason why only 5% of Japanese residents have received the vaccination is due to tardy procurement and subsequent delays in distribution, and not distrust. Actually, when talking about distrust of vaccines, it is probably wise not to make generalisations. Yes, there may have been safety concerns about the HPV vaccination, for example, but not vis-a-vis influenza jabs. Sure, the majority of the population would prefer being injected with Pfizer rather than AstraZeneca, but that could be said for most of the world. And just to repeat, currently, only the elderly are eligible for the jabs, which renders a 50-60% vaccination record impossible.

Yes, hospitals are over-burdened; but that has nothing to do with distrust of vaccines.

I live and work in Japan. I do not know anybody who does not want to be vaccinated against Covid-19. Everyone is waiting for that postcard that will inform them that they can make an appointment. Unfortunately, for the general population, this probably will not happen until late summer or autumn.
 
Yeah, I don't like over generalizations too.
But these are what I found. Because of their past history with vaccine lawsuits, unfortunately the Japanese government hasn't really enforced or recommend vaccinations as strongly as other developed countries. Also mentioned before, because of their relative success early on with covid, they, like Australia and New Zealand, had been ill prepared for the end game of the pandemic which is to vaccinate their way out of it.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/23/national/japan-vaccine-history-coronavirus/

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Kurako has practically echoed my thoughts. I'm probably just beating the same drum he is, but let me just reiterate and emphasize some of those points.

The reason why the population of vaccinated Japanese is relatively low compared to the US is due to procurement. Not due to distrust.

The vaccine is also mainly available to senior citizens for now.

Furthermore, the 1 in 3 statistic is based on "strongly agree" that vaccines are safe. The way visor worded it, and I quoted it above was 1 in 3 "believing in vaccines". That would imply vaccines in general. Not anything relating to covid19 vaccines, let alone the Pfizer or Moderna which has a great track record.

And while we're on the subject about word choices, what about other variations such as "moderately agree", or "slightly agree and partially skeptical, but will get the vaccine because the risks of not getting the vaccine outweight the risks of receiving complications from the vaccine" or any other variation of the word "agree"?

If you knew anything about Japanese culture and how Japanese tend to formulate opinions, a good portion of them generally avoid strongly disagreeing or strongly agreeing with many things, and often view things in shades of gray. Extreme convictions are frowned upon, thus, less Japanese gravitate towards extremes. So these kinds of surveys are inherently painting a different picture from reality. And I'm one of them. Had you asked me a few months ago when the data was orders of magnitude less than today if I "strongly agree" that they are safe, no way would I select that option. I'm surprised as much as 30% actually "strongly agree" seeing how most Japanese don't have more than a few direct contact with people who are vaccinated 3 weeks post second jab and can ask about side effects. But to say that only 1 in 3 "believe in vaccines".... Yea right (sarcasm)

Take it from people who have lived there, have family there, worked there, and are Japanese.
 
Sorry to have diverted the topic.

Back on topic... when is the latest deadline that the government has to make a decision? There are now 59 days left.

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While we're on the subject of vaccine perception, this is just anecdotal but while I was in Japan I've never heard of any vaccine fears like I have in the US. The US has an alarming rate of anti vaxxers that think vaccines can cause autism. And not to mention that there's this conspiracy theory in the US that people are getting microchipped with the covid vaccines now. This kind of thing doesn't exist in Japan and if it does, it's really really small, so small that it's not even prevelant on the internet.

Japanese tend to easily give into social pressure. Not sure if this is a good or bad thing. I guess it has applications in both good and bad ways for society, but when mass vaccinations start, I'm willing to bet that there will be tremendous social pressure to get vaccinated once the overwhelming majority don't report any ill effects, and the whole "think about others and you're a risk to other people who can die if you don't get vaccinated" mantra will be beaten into everyone. So if I had to guess, by mid 2022, whether the US or Japan has a higher vaccination percentage rate, I'd have to put my money on Japan.
 
MarketWizard said:
While we're on the subject of vaccine perception, this is just anecdotal but while I was in Japan I've never heard of any vaccine fears like I have in the US. The US has an alarming rate of anti vaxxers that think vaccines can cause autism. And not to mention that there's this conspiracy theory in the US that people are getting microchipped with the covid vaccines now. This kind of thing doesn't exist in Japan and if it does, it's really really small, so small that it's not even prevelant on the internet.

Japanese tend to easily give into social pressure. Not sure if this is a good or bad thing. I guess it has applications in both good and bad ways for society, but when mass vaccinations start, I'm willing to bet that there will be tremendous social pressure to get vaccinated once the overwhelming majority don't report any ill effects, and the whole "think about others and you're a risk to other people who can die if you don't get vaccinated" mantra will be beaten into everyone. So if I had to guess, by mid 2022, whether the US or Japan has a higher vaccination percentage rate, I'd have to put my money on Japan.
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This is so true. Vaccination in US has plateaued. But it works out for the rest of the world as US can now export more vaccines abroad : )
 
badMania said:
the organisers do not want to calculated risks for holding such an event; which I find quite sad and disheartening for players especially
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I think they have to discuss it with the government and the health authorities of that country. It’s not the organisers themselves that make the final decision - the organisers are not the top authority.
 
Cheung said:
I think they have to discuss it with the government and the health authorities of that country. It’s not the organisers themselves that make the final decision - the organisers are not the top authority.
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is it like indonesian case at ae2021, with HUGE calculation. :)
 
Thomas Bach told the IAF Forum that the preparations and delivery of a safe Tokyo Olympics are in the final stages. The Olympics will be held.
 
badMania said:
Plus, we can forget about any more tourneys being held in Asia again in the near future if the tournament organisers in this region still do not want to accept the reality and fact that the virus is endemic at the moment and you cannot avoid it!

Other sports have re-started and even though the road has been bumpy, they persist in holding those tournaments and sporting events! Fans have been even brought back into football stadiums in England last weekend for the concluding match of the EPL. BWF better take some leaf from the experience of those sports or it would risk obsolescence.
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Asia will wait 2022 (perhaps), just curious what kind of BWF tournaments format would be next year, World Tour still exist?
 
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