Interesting stats, 2cents. Quite well presented. But shouldn't we also put a weightage on injury (especially for Kido)?
Interesting work 2cents. A couple comments: 1. the actual chance should be higher because your calculation assumes the strongest opponents will get there. In fact, they may not. 2. to put the numbers in perspective, LD's chance (using your method) is 80% (BCL) * 75% (PG) * 50% (LCW) * 70% (CJ) = 21%, less than LCW's 22%.
I think against CJ.......the % could be either way......10% or 90%.....for LD, IF its 10%.............LD will have even less chance to win..... IF its 90%.............LD has higher chance than LCW............. Its all depends on whether LD manage to get thru to Final......
Actually, I think LD does have a better chance because he is 65% against LCW in my opinion. Having said that, LD does have a much tougher draw before reaching the "Final" against LCW. I stand by LD's 70% against CJ.
Yes, me too, LD vs LCW....LD has higher chance like 65%.......... Against BCL 80%, PG 75%, LCW 65%, CJ 70%......u call this a 'tougher draw'...?
In my comments to 2cents, the main point is to put LCW's 22% in perspective. I use 80% BCL and 75% PG so it would not seem that I artificially lower LD's chance to make my point. Those percentages are on the high side. My best gestimate of LD's chance would be 75% * 70% * 65% * 70% = 24%. It is still less than 1/3.
Well I have voted veteran WS ZM to win to live up to her WR1 ranking as she has performed quite well recently and has shown she could match the younger players in fitness and skill despite her heavier weight.
I don't know how you arrived at your final percentage scores but basing on them, then every WR1 has little or no chance of winning the WC title. Your best score is LCW's with 22%, which when interpreted roughly means he has only 22% chance of winning, not even 50%! Hope I have not viewed this wrongly. From your scores, if we analyse LCW's matches individually, he can beat 3 rivals quite easily, scoring 70-80% possibilities. Only LD stands in his way and it could be touch and go 50%. If we interprete it this way, LCW should have 50% chance to win the WC title not just 22%.
I'm afraid X Ball will strongly disagree with you. To him LCW has 100% of winning no matter what exotic method or formula you choose.
If u look at the MS draw LDs is not to bad as in QF potentialy PG who let's face it is past his sell buy date meaning past his best Providing he is motivated and concentrating against LCW he will win no problem and potentialy CJ or TH in final
How about we give up on creating statistics and theorys about the players and just wait 2 days too see what unfolds Goodluck to all competitors including the World #1s who have the added pressure on their shoulders.
You are darn right because mine is not based on any probability calculation. It is based what I know about the player - his slow rise and his dedication. If he was any less, I would not have commented so strongly about him, like what you do.
Then it will be less interesting and we have wasted the opportunity of filling up the space in this forum. The intense buildup of BC fans with their partial and diverse views of their favourite players' chances and counter punches right up to the actual days of competition can only added to the fun and interest.
For sure now...WR1 MD will not win World Champion for 2009...........was annouced that MK/HS will not participate in India ........
