Rio Qualifications - Final Week

[hcyong]

MD

AUS Chau/Serasinghe won the Oceania title and will go into the top 50.
Should RSA Malan/Viljoen keep their top 50 spot (pretty likely), it means we reduce one spot from the general rankings.
Conclusion: No THA and GER representatives. POL Cwalina/Wacha are the last pair to qualify.

WD

This is interesting because JPN Fukuman/Yanao (ranked 9) and KOR Chang/Lee (ranked ) can still mathematically switch positions. If that is to occur, JPN will have 2 slots instead of KOR. But that can only happen IF Fukuman/Yanao wins the title and Chang/Lee loses in the SF. It's already amazing that both pairs are in the SF beating CHN opponents.
If both JPN advance to the Final, that would be ... interesting. But in order for that to happen, Fukuman/Yanao will have to first overcome Maheswari/Polii, which is a tall order.

Secondly, there is also dependency on the decision for Mapasa's nationality. If AUS Mapasa/Somerville are in, GER Nelte/Goliszewski are out.

XD

EGY Kashkal/Hosny are right on the precipice at rank 50. And ...
Tan/Lai MAS (ranked 54) will gain enough points this week to overtake the EGY.
This should bring in JPN Kazuno/Kurihara (who incidentally lost to Tan/Lai in Asia R32). Lucky them.


- The above are based on quick calculations on my part -
- Have not bothered to look at MS and WS yet -

 

[hcyong]

@blabl
According to my partial calculations, Lee Dong Kuen will go into the WR Top 16 and therefore KOR will have 2 MS players

 

[hcyong]

In WS, if Kirsty Gilmour takes the Euro title, she will displace Porntip from the Top 16. So, the result in Europe WS finals has a bearing on the THA representation in Rio.

 

[Eskoo]

Any idea how does the MS list shape up according to last tournaments?

 

[Master]

Any idea how does the MS list shape up according to last tournaments?

WR 5th May 2016 calculation: (after Continental Championship 2016)

MS Top 20:

1. Chen Long : 92081
2. Lee Chong Wei : 89183
3. Lin Dan : 75327
4. Victor Axelsen : 73522
5. Jan O Jorgensen : 72172
6. Tian Houwei : 64432
7. Chou Tien Chen : 63185
8. Tommy Sugiarto : 59894
9. Son Wan Ho : 57335
10. Marc Zwiebler : 51443
11. Ng Ka Long Angus : 50464
12. Kidambi Srikanth : 50254
13. Hans Kristian Vittinghus : 48830
14. Hu Yun : 48619
15. Rajiv Ouseph : 48321
16. Lee Dong Keun : 46498
17. Wei Nan :45432
18. Wang Zhengming : 45034
19. Jonathan Christie : 41416
20. Boonsak Ponsana : 40944

 

[Eskoo]

I'm particularly interested in seeing the whole list of MS (and WS) players who has qualified successfully if someone has calculated the list before 5th of May when BWF will publish it.

 

[Alfysa]

I'm particularly interested in seeing the whole list of MS (and WS) players who has qualified successfully if someone has calculated the list before 5th of May when BWF will publish it.

You can check @badmintontalk on twitter they share their predictions for all disciplines.

 

[hcyong]

I'm particularly interested in seeing the whole list of MS (and WS) players who has qualified successfully if someone has calculated the list before 5th of May when BWF will publish it.

It's not so simple. You see, MS allow 38 men (or women for WS) + the number of men who play in multiple events (usually MD and XD, like Zhang Nan). I think the final number will come out to be about 40 or slightly more. Out of that number, 5 are reserved for the highest rannk in each continent, 3 are reserved for Tripartite selection, 1 for Host country.
Still ultimately, if your ranking is at the fringe, it may depend on multiple factors like (a) how many men in multiple events (b) how many unused Tripartite slots etc.

 

[hcyong]

WR 5th May 2016 calculation: (after Continental Championship 2016)

MS Top 20:

1. Chen Long : 92081
2. Lee Chong Wei : 89183
3. Lin Dan : 75327
4. Victor Axelsen : 73522
5. Jan O Jorgensen : 72172
6. Tian Houwei : 64432
7. Chou Tien Chen : 63185
8. Tommy Sugiarto : 59894
9. Son Wan Ho : 57335
10. Marc Zwiebler : 51443
11. Ng Ka Long Angus : 50464
12. Kidambi Srikanth : 50254
13. Hans Kristian Vittinghus : 48830
14. Hu Yun : 48619
15. Rajiv Ouseph : 48321
16. Lee Dong Keun : 46498
17. Wei Nan :45432
18. Wang Zhengming : 45034
19. Jonathan Christie : 41416
20. Boonsak Ponsana : 40944

Lee Dong Keun benefitted from Momota's removal from the rankings. KOR has 2 extra entries to Rio due to Japanese action (the other being the "honourable" JPN WD).

 

[event]

A summary of the changes since the April 28th list is here.

 

[event]

XD

EGY Kashkal/Hosny are right on the precipice at rank 50. And ...
Tan/Lai MAS (ranked 54) will gain enough points this week to overtake the EGY.
This should bring in JPN Kazuno/Kurihara (who incidentally lost to Tan/Lai in Asia R32). Lucky them.

Actually, if the Egyptians had won one match in Tahiti, they would have forced the Japanese into a position where losing would send them to Rio and winning would almost certainly keep them home. As it turned out, the Malaysians still would have passed Egypt even by losing in the first round in Wuhan but they won. Also, two European pairs passed the Egyptians.

 

[hcyong]

Actually, if the Egyptians had won one match in Tahiti, they would have forced the Japanese into a position where losing would send them to Rio and winning would almost certainly keep them home. As it turned out, the Malaysians still would have passed Egypt even by losing in the first round in Wuhan but they won. Also, two European pairs passed the Egyptians.

Peculiar case indeed. Another situation where losing would serve the bigger purpose.

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[event]

MD
AUS Chau/Serasinghe won the Oceania title and will go into the top 50.
Should RSA Malan/Viljoen keep their top 50 spot (pretty likely), it means we reduce one spot from the general rankings.
Conclusion: No THA and GER representatives. POL Cwalina/Wacha are the last pair to qualify.

Actually, the South Africans were passed by 5 pairs who were ahead of them on April 28th: Briggs/Wolfendon, Kersaudy/Mittelheisser,
[BEL] Matijs DIERICKX [BEL] Freek GOLINSKI, Or/Tang, and the Australians. That means the Aussies are in and the South Africans are out and the Germans passed the Thais so there is no impact on singles numbers as Issara lost and Fuchs gained a double ticket.

 

[event]

WD

This is interesting because JPN Fukuman/Yanao (ranked 9) and KOR Chang/Lee (ranked ) can still mathematically switch positions. If that is to occur, JPN will have 2 slots instead of KOR. But that can only happen IF Fukuman/Yanao wins the title and Chang/Lee loses in the SF. It's already amazing that both pairs are in the SF beating CHN opponents.
If both JPN advance to the Final, that would be ... interesting. But in order for that to happen, Fukuman/Yanao will have to first overcome Maheswari/Polii, which is a tall order.

Secondly, there is also dependency on the decision for Mapasa's nationality. If AUS Mapasa/Somerville are in, GER Nelte/Goliszewski are out.

As of last Thursday, the BWF signalled that they were treating Mapasa Setyana as ineligible. Also, Savitree/Pacharaporn and others passed the Egyptians so Olver/Smith are in. Also, this means that Lee/Obanana are the 16th pair regardless but there is still a chance that the BWF will count this as a continental quota spot and make the USA choose 2 from among 3 doubles pairs. If they do, Phillip Chew will likely only go once and a Canadian pair will go in one of his places. My personal reading of it is that the Americans qualified outright but that doesn't mean the BWF won't have its own unique interpretation of its own rules.

 

[hcyong]

As of last Thursday, the BWF signalled that they were treating Mapasa Setyana as ineligible. Also, Savitree/Pacharaporn and others passed the Egyptians so Olver/Smith are in. Also, this means that Lee/Obanana are the 16th pair regardless but there is still a chance that the BWF will count this as a continental quota spot and make the USA choose 2 from among 3 doubles pairs. If they do, Phillip Chew will likely only go once and a Canadian pair will go in one of his places. My personal reading of it is that the Americans qualified outright but that doesn't mean the BWF won't have its own unique interpretation of its own rules.

Good work on the calculations. It's pretty tedious so i was just contend on waiting for the official release.

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[hcyong]

As of last Thursday, the BWF signalled that they were treating Mapasa Setyana as ineligible. Also, Savitree/Pacharaporn and others passed the Egyptians so Olver/Smith are in. Also, this means that Lee/Obanana are the 16th pair regardless but there is still a chance that the BWF will count this as a continental quota spot and make the USA choose 2 from among 3 doubles pairs. If they do, Phillip Chew will likely only go once and a Canadian pair will go in one of his places. My personal reading of it is that the Americans qualified outright but that doesn't mean the BWF won't have its own unique interpretation of its own rules.

I don't understand. As far as i know chew can play in both xd and md, and lee/obanana can also play in wd, regardless of whether they qualify from ranking or from continental representation.

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[Nine Tailed Fox]

A summary of the changes since the April 28th list is here.

Rubbish. How is Wang Shixian out of the Rio Race?

 

[hcyong]

I don't understand. As far as i know chew can play in both xd and md, and lee/obanana can also play in wd, regardless of whether they qualify from ranking or from continental representation.

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Oh, I just went thru the regulations and understand now. I think lee/obanana will not be considered qualifying thru continental representation.

It should be easy to decide. Just have be a separate list whereby there is no continental representation. If the player/pair is in it, then qualification is via ranking.

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[hcyong]

Rubbish. How is Wang Shixian out of the Rio Race?

I just read that article. I think the author is speculating chn decision. Hence in the "in" list, there is wang yihan (she was never out). The author probably speculated lxr is the sure choice and either wyh or wsx will be dropped. Previously, he thought it would be wsx but changed his selection to wyh after recent results.

Wholly understandable

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[Nine Tailed Fox]

I just read that article. I think the author is speculating chn decision. Hence in the "in" list, there is wang yihan (she was never out). The author probably speculated lxr is the sure choice and either wyh or wsx will be dropped. Previously, he thought it would be wsx but changed his selection to wyh after recent results.

Wholly understandable

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He should mention so. Otherwise the list loses its credibility.