well, you're moving to the right direction. it will be around 50% by X'mas and close to 100% soon after
PG will hold the 4th for a long time...it's much more difficult to squeeze into final four than stay there
well, I have to admit that your prediction on CJ at HK open pretty accurate. CJ is so lucky at HK open to be drawed into the same semi as PG. This is his chance. Good for you, Alan, and also good for CJ. Unfortunately, HKO is just a regular SS, next week China open is SSP which is much much more important to collect the meaningful points. The worse thing is that PG will be in the semi with Taufik, who's not a threat to any top 5 players, while CJ is in LD's quarter. Ok, let's see whether or not your prediction on China open comes true. If CJ can win the China open, as you predicted, then his chance to the Olympics will soar above 50%.
I don't think so. Although LD walked over a lot, he actually is quite selfish. I hope LD have a good, sincere fight with CJ, and hopefully CJ can win through, boost his precious points.
Losing to ld in the hong kong open, CJ's chance dropped to 12%. Otherwise, it coulda bumped to 20%. Hurry up, cj, not too much time left. China open is extremely important, don't le LD destroy your future anymore, in fact, you don't have much future left.
. Returning to read what were posted for this tournament, I have to say that you are correct. LD won't allow CJ to overtake his China's/World's ranking. CJ is on his own. He needs to work/train harder if he wants to overtake LD. .
I assumed that 1) CJ lost to LCW, LD always 2) CJ vs CL 50% 3) CJ vs PG 100% 4) PG always loses to LCW, LD, CL and CJ 5) PG and CJ alway win against other players than LCW, LD, CL. 6) most important: LCW, (CL or LD), (LD or CL), PG and CJ will always the top 5 seeds in the remaining SS and SSP. and CJ has a 25% chance to meet anyone of them in each tournament. My assumption is not a fact, no assumption is not just an assumption. My point is that even assume CJ is a better player than PG, he still has less chance.
Thanks to Alan building the route for CJ to the Olympics. Let's see how CJ executes Alan's plan (the first SS after Alan's plan): [TABLE="class: grid"] [TR] [TD][TABLE] [TR="class: grid"] [TD][/TD] [TD]P Gade [/TD] [TD]Chen Jin [/TD] [TD]Lin Dan [/TD] [TD]Chen Long [/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]China Open [/TD] [TD]QF [/TD] [TD]W [/TD] [TD]SF [/TD] [TD]RU [/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]SSF [/TD] [TD]SF [/TD] [TD]QF [/TD] [TD]QF [/TD] [TD]W [/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]Korean [/TD] [TD]SF [/TD] [TD]QF [/TD] [TD]RU [/TD] [TD]SF [/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]All England [/TD] [TD]SF [/TD] [TD]QF [/TD] [TD]W [/TD] [TD]SF [/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]Hong Kong [/TD] [TD]SF -> QF [/TD] [TD]W -> RU [/TD] [TD] -> W[/TD] [TD]RU -> SF [/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]Malaysia [/TD] [TD]SF [/TD] [TD]RU [/TD] [TD]QF [/TD] [TD]SF [/TD] [/TR] [TR="class: grid"] [TD]India [/TD] [TD]SF [/TD] [TD]SF [/TD] [TD]W [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Alan might predict LD skip or wo at HK, instead LD won the title. Alan predicted PG SF and CJ the winner, actually they were in the same semi which mean only 1 of them can advance to the sei. So PG is just a QF, and CJ ended up RU. Very close. prediction for CJ Since PG has so many 6450 points, so he doesn't need SF in SS. He needs SF in SSP which is 7700 points. Alan knew that, so he gave PG only QF at China open. But PG has an easy draw at China open, he would collect his 7700 points easily by beating Taufic. CJ failed to win HK open (predicted by Alan). Can CJ do it at China open? He has to square off with CL in quarter final, it sounds difficult to win at least in my opinion. Without winning any title, without wining against any top 5 players, PG did pretty good at SSP. He collected his biggest points 9350 at Ina by defeating SS, and 7700 points at Denmark by defeating Zwiebler. CJ did defeat LD, CL and PG and also won the Singapore, but his highest point from SSP is only 6050. That's the huge distance between him and PG. China open will automatically grant PG another 7700 points for his reserver SF position. CJ could end up the same 6050 points which is useless. CJ has to keep collecting 7000+ points to stay alive; while PG just needs 1 or 2 7000+ points to shut down CJ completely.
Most people believe that China can get whatever they want by fixing the game. Actually, the reality is that China fixing the game because they CANNOT get what they want. People thought China can get anything once they have the home court advantage. But the reality is that the draw was drawn by BWF's "magic" software. Just check the draw, we already know that it's impossible that CJ, CL and LD won the top 3 positions at China open. That's the perfect example I said the power of draw. No matter how strong those players are, how dirty China play their tricks, how bad China cheats, they just simply cannot get that results. Most specifically, only 1, either CJ or CL, not both can advance passing the quarter final. At least one of them (CJ, CL) can earn no more than 6000 points at China open.
shameless Taufik, Lee CW, Peter Gade and BWF I don't think it's worth to calculate this chance anymore. Chen Jin's career had been killed by BWF already. Under the most unfair BWF rules, Chen Jin suffered a lot in ranking points: no team event points, no super series final points, risky opportunity to all quota by nation events..... That's the reason Chen Jin ranked lower than Peter Gade, not because Peter Gade is a better player than Chen Jin. Shameless Taufik, Lee CW, and Peter Gade were invited to play the so called heaven kings (rest in heaven?) event, and grab millions of dollars for losing. At the same time, Taufik, LCW and PG reached an agreement to block Chen Jin's rising in the ranking. What shameless players! Not dare to face to face fight! Here's the link http://sports.sinchew-i.com/node/20002?tid=3 道菲：與李宗偉蓋特有協議 ‧3天王阻中國奧運男單滿額 印尼前奧運會冠軍道菲雖然雄風不再，不過他仍誓言要聯手大馬的世界一哥李宗偉和丹麥名將彼德蓋特，以合力阻 止中國欲取得倫敦奧運會羽球賽男單參賽席位滿額（3席）的野心。
Unless CJ be WR#4 very soon to be seeded in top 4 alongside LCW, LD & CL, he would be difficult to get high pts fr top tournaments...
My Chinese friends just taught me another Chinese old saying, "the 50-steps laughed at the 100-steps"... All are in the same muddy water... All human beings....
cant see any actual damage done by the agreement of th,pg and lcw yet while the china shameless tricks is all over the place with stat and fact so what u say is not valid to apply on this situation the thing that made me curious is that are those support china shameless act fans know what is shame before claiming lcw,peter and th is shameless?
So, how would it work? I suppose Peter Gade was supposed to beat Chen Jin in HK.. Later, Taufik has to beat Chen Jin in some early rounds and then let Peter Gade go through easily... Yes..I can see it happen....
