How many gold medals will China win in Rio?

[kwun]

Kicking off the new 2016 forums with a poll.

China made history in the 2012 Olympics in London, bagging all 5 gold medals from Lin Dan, Li Xuerui, Cai Yun / Fu Haifeng, Tian Qing / Zhao Yunlei, Zhang Nan / Zhao Yunlei.

4 years is a long time and a lot has changed. Lin Dan isn't the player he used to be, Chen Long is struggling to take his place, and Lee Chong Wei doesn't seem to be slowing down.

WS players are plague by injuries and form. But most importantly the rest of the world has grown stronger and stronger.

MD has declined back to the old days with just occasional flahes instead of continued strength like we saw from Cai/Fu.

WD is still strong but now seeing new contenders like the world number pair of Matsutomo/Takahashi.

XD is anchored by defending champion Zhang Nan / Zhao Yunlei who has a good chance of retaining the title. But as always, nothing is a certainty in the Olympics.

So how many gold medals will China win this time in Rio?

 

[Espírito Santo]

My guess, it will be 3 Golds from MS, WD and XD .

 

[latecomer]

A bold guess, 5 golds.

 

[Rob3rt]

My guess, it will be 3 Golds from MS, WD and XD .

Agreed. I think they will probably win MS, XD and WD.

 

[Rob3rt]

A bold guess, 5 golds.

Who's gonna win WS and MD in your opinion?

 

[latecomer]

Who's gonna win WS and MD in your opinion?

LXR and a to be determined MD team?

 

[renbo]

2 golds, WD and XD. MS is the tricky one, 50-50.

 

[press100]

China will win gold from MS, WD & MX...

 

[Espírito Santo]

LXR and a to be determined MD team?

For WS, I put on my bet on Carolina Marin to win, go, go, go Spain!!!

Meanwhile for MD, realistically either Korean or Indonesia will be crown as the Olympic Champion.

 

[Diamondx1]

What do you mean by Chen Long is struggling to take Lin Dan's place? Chen Long has been pretty dominate this year and last year as well.

 

[Fan123]

Only MD WD and XD.

 

[opruh]

MS = Lin Dan
WS = LXR (but I have a feeling that WSX will win it)
MD = Not China/Korea
WD = Chinese pair
XD = ZN/ZYL

 

[nilesh123]

Only MD WD and XD.

Hmm MD u sure?
WD and XD are certain unless ZYL has an upset stomach
MS too is atleast 80% sure and I think LXR can bounce up too

 

[alien9113]

XD and WD are guaranteed. For the other categories, the performances are still shaky. It will depend on how the players themselves handle the pressure.

If Li Xuerui is going, chances are, she could crumble under pressure. The other WS ladies performances are not stable enough. For MS, Lin Dan doesn't appear to do well at the moment. Chen Long is having some trouble with Lee Chong Wei. For MD, nothing needs to be said. China's MD has never been strong.

 

[renbo]

The catastrophic situation would be for LD and CL to meet each other in the semis, then LCW in the final. Very difficult to avoid, as LD will find it hard to climb to n.2 spot in the rankings.

 

[Devendra]

The catastrophic situation would be for LD and CL to meet each other in the semis, then LCW in the final. Very difficult to avoid, as LD will find it hard to climb to n.2 spot in the rankings.

But don't they have nationality separation in the Olympics?

 

[renbo]

But don't they have nationality separation in the Olympics?

We have discussed it lightly previously and we are not sure. If they split nations and takes the ranking into accounts, it becomes fussy. Personally, I don't think they split nations, but I might be wrong.

 

[latecomer]

The catastrophic situation would be for LD and CL to meet each other in the semis, then LCW in the final. Very difficult to avoid, as LD will find it hard to climb to n.2 spot in the rankings.

LD will be the number 4 seed if this is the case.

 

[phihag]

But don't they have nationality separation in the Olympics?

We have discussed it lightly previously and we are not sure.

I would be very surprised if BWF does change the Olympic Games Regulations this late. They currently state:

§2.2 The seeds for the 2016 Olympic Games Badminton competition shall be determined using the BWF ranking list of 21 July 2016.

§3.3.4.2 The seeded pairs shall be placed at the top of each group as follows:
a) No 1 placed at the top of Group A
b) No 2 placed at the top of Group P
c) No 3 and 4 drawn by lot at the top of Groups E and L
d) No’s 5-8 drawn by lot into Groups C, G, J, and N

§3.4.2 The draw for the Knock-out stage will be as below [A plays B, C plays D, winner of A/B plays winner C/D, winner of A/B/C/D plays winner of E/F/G/H and so on. To avoid the 1st seed, you need to go into group I-P]. The winners in each group will be placed at the pre-designated places in the draw.

§4.1 Players/pairs from any one National Olympic Committee shall not be drawn in the same group.

So LD meeting CL in the semis or even before (if LD drops below 4) is certainly possible. Note that #3 and #4 have absolutely identical seeding, so it's never beneficial to lose intentionally.

 

[renbo]

That's what I thought, even more so if there is a round robin (I had forgotten about that). Thanks for the explanation.