After watching KV's and Viktor's matches in the playoffs this Olympics, I would only give Viktor a 60% chance to beat KV. Prior to watching the playoffs, I would have given Viktor an 80% or 90% chance to beat KV if they met at the Olympics. But Viktor showed his weaknesses, especially against Laksha Sen. Viktor looked stunned and looked like a deer caught in headlights when Laksha Sen took a 14-9 lead against him in the 1st set. And then in the 2nd set, Viktor once again looked confused when Laksha Sen took a 7-0 lead. It was only Laksha Sen's errors that let Viktor back in the match. But in the 1st set, and in the 2nd set yesterday, it really looked like Laksha Sen would take those sets.
KV has done well to beat two decent opponents on his way to the finals. First Shi Yuqi, and then LZW. It was hard for me to respect KV's run in the WC last year, because he didn't have to go through Viktor (thanks to Prannoy). Furthermore, in KV's run last year, I think the strongest opponent he beat was Laksha Sen. Kodai Naraoka was not as strong finalist (and in this Olympics, you can see how strong Kodai Naraoka really is). LZJ, Shi Yuqi, Antonsen, Jonathan Christie, etc, were on the other half of the bracket in last year's WC and KV avoided all of them.
Like if KV beat LZJ, Shi Yuqi, and Viktor, to win the WC last year, I would have had a lot more respect for that WC run. But this is who KV needs to beat this year to win the Olympic Gold medal. So I respect KV's run this year, based on the caliber of opponents he had to beat, with Viktor as the final boss, and IMO, Viktor is a much worthy final boss than Kodai Naraoka.
Having said that, my odds for KV winning have gone up drastically because of his run. From giving him a 10% so 20% chance to beating Viktor, to now a 40% chance of beating Viktor. It's almost a coin flip, but I still give the edge to Viktor because of his past experience with winning the last Olympic gold medal, Viktor's past WC titles, Viktor's win over KV in the 2022 WC finals, Viktor's 6:1 head to head over KV (
https://www.tournamentsoftware.com/...33E64CC&T1P1MemberID=25831&T2P1MemberID=64032), and Viktor's performance over the last year, including winning the Malaysia Masters, winning the BWF Tour finals, winning the Japan Masters, winning the China Open, and making it deep in other BWF tournaments (aside from winning the WC last year, KV did not win a 500+ BWF tournament since then, but perhaps he is the type of guy that shows up at majors).
