Who will be hot in 2004?

Discussion in '2004 Tournaments' started by Morten, Nov 18, 2003.

  1. Hugo

    Hugo Regular Member

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    My good sir, where is Zhang/Yang on your WD list. The pair won 5 golds and 4 silvers on the year. Not a bad feat. I would place them 2nd but barely behind Gao/Huang.

    Everybody's basically summed up all there's to say. Every discipline's going to have the usual suspects on the podium (really usual for WS and WD!).

    However, in MS, I wouldn't place Lee HI up near the top. Sure, he's a good player and has won 3 tourneys this year, but they're all 3* and less. Aside from German Open, the rest of them didn't have a tough draw (relatively speaking). He's going to stay in the top 10 and perhaps in top 5 in rankings but that's solely because he makes some SF and QF appearances regularly. I'm not betting on him to win any GP above 3* this coming year.

    I am hoping for Bao CL to climb back and win a few GPs like he last did in Denmark '02. He's actually been more consistent than Lin over the past 1.5 yrs. but just that Lin became superman all of a sudden during the past 2 months.
     
  2. 2cents

    2cents Regular Member

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    Re: ranking in MS 1/1-04

    How did you get these points? Unfortunately, they are not correct.

    For example now Chen Hong has 3,501.98 points from best 10 results. By the 1st of January, 2004. His points will be:
    3501.98 - 408 (2002) + 216 (the 11th best) = 3309.98 points.

    Lin Dan's points:
    3288 (current) - 192 (2002) + 105 ( the 11th) = 3201 points.

    Lee HI's points:
    3,168.58 (current) - 0 (no 2002 points) = 3168.58 points

    Wong CH:
    3015 (current) - 480 (2002) + 0 (no 11th) = 2535 points

    Xia XZ:
    3009.33 - 264 + 75 = 2820

    Jonassen K:
    2730 - 336 - 180 + 54 = 2268

    Bao CL:
    2,467.33 - 0 = 2467.33

    So Chen Hong will remain the unreplacable world number one at the start of next year.

    Lin Dan will remain the 2nd,

    Lee HI will remain the 3rd,

    Xia XZ will be the 4th, up from the current 5th, while

    Wong CH will be down to 5th (interesting! Wong CH's loss are always Xia XZ's gain!)

    Bao CL will be up to 6th from 7th.

    Basically no big change.

    I think because of your calculation mistakes, many fans here bet on Lee HI to be the superstar next year.

     
  3. Morten

    Morten Regular Member

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    mistake

    yes i made a mistake but saw it after i had posted it. I Personally think Gade and Lin Dan will be the big guns in 2004 with Wong choong Hann and Bao as dark horses. Gade has regained his attacking style and pace now only needing his stamina. But he has 2 month to build up some endurance and stamina. Lin Dan has matured and is close to be a perfect player with no big weaknesses. My bet on a Olympic champion would be Lin Dan, if he can avoid injuries.
     
  4. dlp

    dlp Regular Member

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    Interesting guys but what about new players who will make breakthrough in 2004?

    From an English point of view Emms Kellog should continue to rise back up rankings if they stay fit. Its hard to see any mens pair emerging near Robertson/Clark, Blair has potential to go higher in both mixed and mens if he can get world class partner.

    In womens singles Hallam seems to be going through a low patch after her great run after the WC and it looks like her and Julia Mann will contest the no,1 spot for the another year , Liz Cann did beat Hallam at domestic event but hasn't had any results on the big stage yet.

    In mens singles with Smith injured and Ghaffar still inconsistent we are looking to 17 year old Rajiv Ouseph to challenge Haughton, but South has returned to fitness.

    Outside England, Denmark are looking for Lamp/Boe or Steffenson/Laybourn as their next great pair but perhaps the young Mogensen/Anderson will emerge as stars.
     
  5. Morten

    Morten Regular Member

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    Rajiv ouseph is indeed a talented player(plays a little like Gopichand :D). Im a year older than he and therefor we plays in same league every second year.. And i must admit that I was very impressed when i saw him this year. He has improved a lot and can perhaps be Englands comeback on world scene in some years.
     
  6. LazyBuddy

    LazyBuddy Regular Member

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    Don't forget she will be 1 yr older as well. ;)
     
  7. cooler

    cooler Regular Member

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    my gut feel is that CM might gonna retire next year. Retire i mean from international competition, not badminton.
     
  8. Morten

    Morten Regular Member

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    yes she will be one year older...and perhaps she will not be at the same level at the Olympics. But on the other side, europeans can stay longer on top because of the other training structures than the chinese players are used to.. If Camilla Martin is done then perhaps Zhang Ning is also, who knows she's also 29. But lets hope both will be there and in topform. I hope Camilla Martin can stop her career on top with a gold medal from Athen.
     
  9. dlp

    dlp Regular Member

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    Camilla will be at 30 at Athens, but more to the point she has been on the international circuit since the age of 16, and world class for over ten years, thats a long time to continue to improve with the pace of the game and remain world class, let alone against the chinese machine. I hope she will be back to her best next year but somehow I doubt it.
     
  10. da ding

    da ding Regular Member

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    if you take the question literally, i think Xie Xingfang will be hot (good looking) in 2004:D :D but that is irrevelant...anyways

    who will be hot in 2004?

    MS
    Lin Dan, of course, had a really good streak at the end of 03 and seems to be strong technically and mentally, but seems to encounter trouble when he plays fellow chinese.

    Chen Yu is actually a very good player potentially, as shown by his back to back Chinese Nateional Championship wins, and if he works on his consistency, i think we will really see a massive improvement in his international results

    Wong Choon Hann is still very much a force to be reckoned with, and he has shown a marked improvement in composure and consistency lately... i think he is malaysias best ms player by far

    TaufiK Hidayat needs to: get a coach, get back into the indo team, get back to training properly, and get back to winning! really though, in terms of raw talent, he's the best around

    WS
    Xie XF (go xie!):D --well, if she can get her mental strength to match her technical strength, i reckon she will be the best in the world--and she seems to be improving this aspect lately (won the CNBC and the Masters)

    The rest of the chinese fleet...nothing to be said here

    Jun Jae Youn: the hope for the future of Korean WS, she has shown some impressive form in the second half of 03 and frequently troubled the more established names

    MD
    Fu/Cai--fast and furious young pair, just lacks a lot of top-level experience, compared to Kim/Ha, Lee/Yoo, Wijaya/Haryanto etc.

    Wijaya/Haryanto--new pairing really seems to have got into stride at the Masters when they bulldozed past just about everybody, quite lethal with Halim at the back and Candra at the front

    Kim/Ha: deadly, if Ha can keep fit

    And of course, our very own JR and his partner Lars Paaske!

    WD
    China, china, and ... china?

    XD
    Kim/Ra, Kim/Ra and ...Kim.Ra?
    oh yeah, Zhang/Gao too:D

    JR and Rikke Olsen are promising too.

    So my current predictions for the Olympics:

    MS
    Choon Hann/Lin Dan final

    WS
    All chinese final...preferably xie xingfang involved:D

    MD
    Fu/Cai and Kim/Ha final

    WD
    Gao/Huang and Yang/Zhang final

    XD
    Kim/Ra and Zhang/Gao finals
     
  11. Qidong

    Qidong Regular Member

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    I'm surprised that Gao/Zhang and Ha/Kim are not broken up yet. From the all the matches I watched between Gao/Zhang and Ra/Kim, Zhang is the weakest one. He made too many unforced errors and could not cover the back court. Same as Ha/Kim, the opponent always pick on Ha. :confused: I think Kim/Lee or Kim/Yoo will do much better and dominate the MD like Kim/Ra in the XD. :rolleyes:
     
  12. Morten

    Morten Regular Member

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    I dont believe Cai/Fu will make it to the final.. Kim/Ha is favourites, but i believe Jonas/Lars, 2nd korean pair and Candra/ Halim are the other favourites. Cai/Fu havent proved yet that they can win the big tournaments..
     
  13. da ding

    da ding Regular Member

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    Qidong, I certainly agree wiht you on the fact that Zhang Jun is the weakest out of the four XD players, though i have to say that Ra is also better than Gao. From what i reckon:

    Kim has more accurate smashes (he is much taller), quicker, smarter, makes less unforced errors, and is much more solid defensively thatn Zhang, who relies overly on power smashes

    Ra and Gao are equally lethal at hte net, but at the back court Ra is very much stronger: i have even seen her hit outright winners from the back on quite a few occasions, while Gao can only drop shot, waiting for the opportunity to switch with Zhang. Actually, both Chinese suffer from a great height disadvantage and it must be said that Kim Dong Moon is THE best doubles player of the generation.

    I would really like to see some of the younger MD players in china trying out for XD, eg Cai, Fu or maybe Zheng bo etc.

    However, on the doubles front, i think China has a brighter future than Korea: apart from Kim/Ha and Lee/Yoo who are all in their late 20's, Korea have no outstanding young doubles talent, and seen to rely now more on Lee Hyun Il and Jun JAe Yun etc in the singles.

    btw, about Kim/Lee forming a partnership...they did for the Malaysia Open this year, when Ha and Yoo were injured, and as a new pairing, hey happened too win it, but that will leave Korea with only one world class MD pairing as Yoo/Ha just are not as good.
     
  14. da ding

    da ding Regular Member

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    Actually, ive reconsidered the MD situation, and i must say i agree wiht you, Morten. Cai/Fu have another 6 or 7 months to prove themselves before the olympics though, and i really like watching them play, so i hope they do well...their main attribute is speed i guess.

    JR/Lars are indeed very strong, as are Candra/Halim, who must show that their Masters win wasn't just a flash in the pan. It must be said though that although Halim has a potent smash and ample experience, in terms of overall skills he is inferior to Candra. Many pairs have taken advantage of this eg in the China Opne, i think it was the q-finals, Cai/Fu beat the indonesions 15-5 15-2 very quickly by concnetrating on Halim.

    Also, the 2nd korean pair of Lee dongsoo and yoo yong sung are not very strong in attack, but are very fast and solid defensivley, but wiht that lack of firepower, i think it will be hard for them to make it to the finals

    So i think a JR/Lars and Kim/Ha final will be very nice, it will be a good contrast of styles. I wouldn't rule out candra/halim or cai/fu though
     
  15. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    Kim/Ha and Lee/Yoo are all approaching retirement age. the chances that they will split up now to form new permanent pairing is rather slim imho.

    i do agree that Zhang Jun has faded a lot in the past year or two. he and Gao won the Olympics and WC on good solid smashes from Zhang and good will-not-die fighting spirit. imho, Gao never was above Ra in neither speed nor anticipation.

    unforutnately, either Zhang is getting old or some reason, he is not as lethal as he used to be. and honestly i think from a fundamental point of view, he is lacking from other players. however, he does have experience behind him. for sure he and Gao will be able to participate in the Olympics being the only contender who is able to defend their title.
     
  16. Qidong

    Qidong Regular Member

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    From the recent matches like Hong Kong Open, World Cup and Sudirmen Cup, Zhang's smash was no longer a threat because Kim/Ra were able to return his smash without much trouble. And on the other hand, Zhang was having problems returning Kim's smashes and too slow to return Ra's net shots. So if Zhang can't improve, and Kim/Ra keeps on attacking on Zhang, I really don't feel Zhang/Gao have any chances beating Kim/Ra in 2004.
     
  17. kwun

    kwun Administrator

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    agree. without any surprises, i think the Olympics gold will most likely end up in the pockets of Kim/Ra and then Zhang/Gao and may be a Danish pair Silver/Bronze depending on the draw.

    however, the Olympics is a place that is full of surprises. i mean, China banked on Liu Yong/Ge Fei for mixed, and who came out on top? and then MS as well...
     
  18. Cheung

    Cheung Moderator

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    Xie Xin Fang for ladies singles. Barring injury, I think she's the girl for Gold in Athens.
     
  19. Qidong

    Qidong Regular Member

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    But based on current ranking, Xie may not even play in the Olympics because she ranks after Gong, Zhang and Zhou. Will be very interesting to find out which 3 girls the Chinese coaches will pick, and all 4 are capable of winning the gold. ... Unless China let her play for Hong Kong.... :)
     
    #39 Qidong, Jan 5, 2004
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2004
  20. Qidong

    Qidong Regular Member

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    And with Chen Wang and Xie in the Hong Kong team, who can challenge Hong Kong for the Silver in Ulber Cup. ... Start dreaming too early. :D
     

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