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Discussion in 'Sudirman Cup 2005' started by apontoh, May 14, 2005.
Allow me to open this thread.
so what are the odds?
I'm guessing 60-40 chance for China..
oops sorry for the wrong title, it sohuld read "Day 6"
Moderator, can u fix it? Thanks
I think is more 70-30, advantage China. Realisticlly only Taufik and MD of Indonesia have chance to score points. However, it would be interesting if Indonesians can capture the first 2 matches XD and MS which will put tremendous pressure on Chinese MD players and China's wall may very well be collapsed. Imagine how Li Yongbo will look like
Anyway, the highly anticipated MS between Lin Dan and Taufik finally arrives, just look at how Taufik torn apart Peter Gade, I think Lin Dan will have hard time if his power play doesn't work. Taufik has a lot to prove that he still can win under hostile environment and the chance is now.
I think Alvin/Luluk or Sigit/Chandra will give a very tough fight to Fu/Cai.
Indonesian XD team looked very strong against Denamark. I also think the Taufik score against Gade is misleading - it appeared Gade gave up in the second after a close first game (there were some tough line calls against Gade in the first game). MSingles should be an interesting match. I think Lin Dan might have the advantage because he is playing in front of the home crowd. China definitely has better women players. I agree Indonesia has to win XD, MS & MD - I don't think Indonesia has chance in WS, WD.
i think indonesia's chances in the MxD are pretty strong too...esp. since Zhang/Gao haven't been performing too well recently.
China may be clear favourate, but remember that Indonesia is always excellent in team event. They even captured Thomas cup when they were not in top form back in 2002. I think this match would be very interesting, especially the long-awaited men single between Lin Dan and Taufik. China may win the match, but I don't think would be as easy as previous matches. My guess: Indonesia will get one or two points from China. The crucial are XD, MS and MD.
From comments on the official website, some Chinese fans are seems to be 'over confident' and sound 'arrogant' to me. This is not good and I just couldn't imagine what would be the situation IF China fail in the final (no offence to Chinese fans).
I am not a mathematician but let's assume:
1. WD and WS are sure win to China
2. MD, MS, MXD are all about 50-50.
The simple probability calculation for Indonesia to win would be:
0.5 X 0.5 X 0.5 = 12.5%
I know this is a very rough estimation but it seems that indo has a very slim chance to win the sudirman cup on paper. But indonesians always have a strong team spirit so this is not an easy game for chinese.
i think this time the chinese will field bao chunlai...
MX wise i think indo will have a good chance if today's game was of any idication... 65-35 odds in favour for indo?
but i'm not so sure about MD. chandra/sigit is not really that dependable as last time when tony was around, back then, one point will be from MD. that's a sure one... 45-55 in favour for chinese
taufik? this will really depend on the MX. if the mix wins, he'll be working his ass off to win! win or lose, it'll be exciting.. but if the mix lose, maybe he;ll work hard too.. just for pride sake 60-40 for indo
I was about to ask this question. Have they actually released the lineup for tomorrow's match? Don't get all excited for the mouth-watering Lin vs Taufik match cos Li YB may just field Bao Chunlai against Taufik...
Here's my 2 cents for the Finals tomorrow..
The XD will be key, again for the Indos..It could be played as the first tie, but also last, I have a gut feeling the XD will be played last though..It will depend on how Nova do, as we all know how good Lilyana is at the net and overall as Nova's partner. It should be interesting to watch her battle with Gao Ling..
However, unlike the Danes, who got a bad luck, all the Chinese team's top players are healthy and ready to go..Even if the match use the same format order like yesterday and the Chinese lost the first 2 sets, they still have the WS and WD to rely on for ties..Yes, it will put extra pressure on the Chinese if the first 2 sets are lost(XD,MS), but if the 3rd tie is the WS, most likely they'll get the tie and keep the match going...
In a sense with the weaker Women's category, it will put the Indos in a more "dire need" situation and will have to play extra hard and full concentration as they can't allow the XD,MS and MD to slip away...Only 3 chances and that's it..
I, again feel, the "Looser" team will win the Finals tomorrow...
After gao ling's 80 odd minute match today, i assume she will only be down to play in the XD and not the WD as well in the final? I guess it doesn't matter who plays in the WD for china as both pairs should be able to win 2-0. If ZJ would be controlled aggressive that would be good. oh well, china just need to win 1 of out 3 (assuming no one gets injured in the womens matches)
well...the indos has a tall order tomorow...
MS,MD and XD.....
they cannot afford a single "bad luck" on ANY of the three.....
psssst....hint....home crowd might tip the "luck" factor
I thought Gao/Zhang Jun play well today although they won in 3 hard fought sets. Their opponent Lee Hyo Jung/Lee Jae Jin are one of the best XD this day. Lee/Lee are now rank 8 after only 7 tournaments.
So it will be 50:50 for Nova/Lilyana VS Gao/Zhang. They both had 1-1 records also.
i dun think they'll put bao, since he always screws up during pressure, especially in team events. Especially since ws wd is china's , and since indonesia has a better chance to win the mx and md, the ms is going to be the key match. Too much pressure to bao , much rather put lin, since he has a strong mentality.
Bao btw lost to hafiz in 2002 tc semi,
and more importantly, lost to TAUFIK in SC 2003 SEMI!!! Coincidence?? i think NOT!
Does anyone know whether LYB is reading this thread and going...hmmm good point New_Guy04??
Actually Bao was instrumental in helping China to lift Thomas cup 2004, 3rd set victory over Kenneth Jonnasen? or was it in 2 sets?
Taufik openly admits Bao as the one player he fears most. I think Taufik has set his target on Lin Dan again. He will be dissapointed to play Bao, not because it would be tougher for him, but because in his heart wanted to play Lin Dan. To deny him the opportunity to prove himself, I think would take away his reason for playing, therefore better to play Bao in that scenario. However, Bao does not control his nerves as well as Lin Dan and needs constant supervision from his coach. Bao is a better technical match for Taufik, but Lin has better brains.
Either way, this one is going to be a mouth watering match
If Lin Dan plays tommorow, watch out for the 'changing racquet' tactic..fumbling into the bag to 'look' for something...to take a time out..in the end he just rotates between 2 racquets. I am surprised he has not been penalised, is it because he is playing at 'home'
Yes, Bao lost to Taufik in 2003 SC in 3 sets.
However, he beat Taufik in 2004 TC (15-13, 15-6). Not forget to mention the crucial win against Kenneth Jonassen when he was trailing something like 10-4 behind.
Putting Bao in MS is a sensible option but I prefer to see Lin Dan vs Taufik Hidayat.
of course, it's true that he beat kj and taufik in tc cup
however, i have to agree with New_guy 04, because...
1.) When he beat taufik in 2004 tc cup, it was only the preliminary round, and there were almost no pressure, because even if they lost to indonesia, they would have already made it to the semis.
2.) well, beating kj in a team event (where there is pressure) is not that difficult... bao collapses during pressure in team events, but kj collapses even more!
I think match lineup could be critical for Indo to win.
Any body know how it decide, I thought it depend if any player in team play in multiple match ? I would prefer to see MS, WS, MD, WD, MX ...
I am not saying Bao is a better choice than Lin. I actually think Lin is a safer bet. What I want to say is Bao show that he can stand with pressure in team events from my observations in TC (Lin is better is this aspect though) and I am not suprise if Bao is on tomorrow. By the way, I don't think KJ collapse easily and it should be the opposite. For example, 2004 Singapore Open Final when he beat LCW in the final is a classic one.